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Climate Change, Global Food Security, and the US Food System

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Climate Change, Global Food Security, and the US Food System CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY AND THE U.S. FOOD SYSTEM U.S. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM Climate Change, Global Food Security, and the U.S. Food System December 2015 Climate Change, Global Food Security, and the U.S. Food System This document and all individual sections herein may be cited as follows: Brown, M.E., J.M. Antle, P. Backlund, E.R. Carr, W.E. Easterling, M.K. Walsh, C. Ammann, W. Attavanich, C.B. Barrett, M.F. Bellemare, V. Dancheck, C. Funk, K. Grace, J.S.I. Ingram, H. Jiang, H. Maletta, T. Mata, A. Murray, M. Ngugi, D. Ojima, B. O’Neill, and C. Tebaldi. 2015. Climate Change, Global Food Security, and the U.S. Food System. 146 pages. Available online at http://www.usda.gov/oce/climate_change/FoodSecurity2015Assessment/FullAssessment.pdf. Additional Technical Contributors: Mamta Chaudhari (GWU), Shannon Mesenhowski (USAID), Micah Rosenblum (USDA FAS), Isabel Walls (USDA NIFA), and Keith Wiebe (IFPRI) DOI: 10.7930/J0862DC7 This document was produced as part of a collaboration between the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, and the National Center for Atmospheric Research. NCAR’s primary sponsor is the National Science Foundation. Image credits: Images are I-Stock/I-Stock. com, Shutterstock/Shutterstock.com unless otherwise noted. I-Stock/I-Stock.com: Cover, pgs. x, 13, 16, 17, 35, 37, 38, 40, 41, 50, 53, 60, 66, 71, 74, 85, 87, 92, 93, 110, 111. Shutterstock/Shutterstock.com: Title page, pgs. 1, 12, 17, 22, 24, 25, 36, 52, 56, 58, 65, 68, 75, 80, 81, 84, 104, 106, 108, 111, 112, 114, 115. This report is in the public domain. Some materials in the report are copyrighted and permission was granted for their publication in this report. For subsequent uses that include such copyrighted materials, permission for reproduction must be sought from the copyright holder. In all cases, credit must be given for copyrighted materials. December 2015 The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all of its programs and activities on the basis of race, color, national origin, age, disability, and where applicable, sex, marital status, familial status, parental status, religion, sexual orientation, political beliefs, genetic information, reprisal, or because all or part of an individual’s income is derived from any public assistance program. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (Braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact USDA’s TARGET Center at (202) 720-2600 (voice and TDD). To file a complaint of discrimination, write to USDA, Assistant Secretary for Civil Rights, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Civil Rights, 1400 Independence Avenue, S.W., Stop 9410, Washington, DC 20250-9410, or call toll-free at (866) 632-9992 (English) or (800) 877- 8339 (TDD) or (866) 377-8642 (English Federal-relay) or (800) 845-6136 (Spanish Federal-relay). USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer. ii December 2015 Dear Colleagues: On behalf of the National Science and Technology Council and the U.S. Global Change Research Program, we are pleased to transmit to you the Climate Change, Global Food Security, and the U.S. Food System assessment report. This state-of-the-science assessment establishes the technical foundation for managing food security outcomes around the world and for preparing consumers, agricultural producers, and others in the United States for changing conditions. This report, in response to the President’s Climate Action Plan, integrates research from the biophysical and the social sciences, across multiple sectors, to evaluate climate-driven changes in global food security and analyze the U.S. role in food security in a changing world. The result of a three-year effort led by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, this study brought together over thirty experts at nineteen institutions in four countries. The authors drew on information gathered in stakeholder workshops and public commentary, as well as on analysis by technical experts within the Federal government. We would like to thank the authors, reviewers, and staff who prepared this report, and the stakeholders and members of the public whose comments ensured its usefulness and applicability. Food security represents one of humanity’s most urgent and important challenges. The science in this report provides a particularly useful tool in meeting that challenge. Sincerely, John P. Holdren Thomas J. Vilsack Assistant to the President for Science and Technology Secretary Director, Office of Science and Technology Policy U.S. Department of Agriculture Executive Office of the President iii Climate Change, Global Food Security, and the U.S. Food System Table of Contents Acknowledgments ......................................................................................................................................................................................viii Report in Brief ....................................................................................................................................................................................................ix Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1 Chapter 1: Introduction and Report Background ..........................................................................................................13 1.1 Report Background ......................................................................................................................................................................13 1.2 Report Scope ....................................................................................................................................................................................14 1.3 Report Organization ....................................................................................................................................................................14 1.4 Report-Development Process ..................................................................................................................................................15 Chapter 2: Key Concepts and Definitions ..............................................................................................................................17 2.1 Food Security ...................................................................................................................................................................................17 2.2 Food Insecurity ...............................................................................................................................................................................19 2.3 Food Systems ...................................................................................................................................................................................19 2.4 Climate Change ..............................................................................................................................................................................20 2.5 Non-climate Drivers of Food Systems and Food Security ..........................................................................................21 2.6 Conclusions.......................................................................................................................................................................................23 Chapter 3: Models, Scenarios, and Projections of Climate Change and Socioeconomic Change .......................................................................................................................................................25 3.1 Climate Modeling ..........................................................................................................................................................................25 3.2 Greenhouse-Gas (GHG) Emissions and Concentration Scenarios ..........................................................................27 3.3 Climate Projections .......................................................................................................................................................................28 3.4 Socioeconomic Change ..............................................................................................................................................................35 3.5 Conclusions.......................................................................................................................................................................................38 Chapter 4: Integrated Assessment Modeling of Agricultural and Food Systems .............................41 4.1 Impact-Assessment Framework for Agricultural and Food Systems ....................................................................41 4.2 Biophysical Models .......................................................................................................................................................................42 4.3 Global Economic Models ............................................................................................................................................................44 4.4 Regional Economic Impact-Assessment Models ............................................................................................................44
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