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TA Securities Thursday, 18 Sept 2014 a Member of the TA Group FBMKLCI: 1,843.78

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TA Securities Thursday, 18 Sept 2014 a Member of the TA Group FBMKLCI: 1,843.78 RESULTS UPDATE TA Securities Thursday, 18 Sept 2014 A Member of the TA Group FBMKLCI: 1,843.78 MENARA TA ONE, 22 JALAN P. RAMLEE, 50250 KUALA LUMPUR, MALAYSIA TEL: +603 -20721277 / FAX: +603 -20325048 Sector: Property SP Setia Berhad TP: RM 3. 08 (-7.0%) RM5.0bn sales target to be dependent on Battersea Last Traded: RM3.31 THIS REPORT IS STRICTLY FOR INTERNAL CIRCULATION ONLY* Sell Thiam Chiann Wen Tel: +603-2167 9615 [email protected] www.taonline.com.my Review Share Information SP Setia’s 9MFY14 net profit of RM274.4mn came in below expectations, Bloomberg Code SPSB MK Stock Code 8664 making up 67% of ours and 59% of street’s FY14 estimates. The variance Listing Main Market was largely due to slower-than-expected progress billing and inclusion of Share Cap (mn) 2538.1 GST impact on construction costs for on-going projects, which span over the Market Cap (RMmn) 8401.1 Apr-15 implementation date. Par Value 0.75 52-wk Hi/Lo (RM) 3.65/2.70 12-mth Avg Daily Vol ('000 shrs) 1203.1 The group’s 9MFY14 revenue and PBT grew 12% YoY and 14% YoY Estimated Free Float (%) 20.1 respectively to RM2.6bn and RM500mn, mainly driven by higher revenue Beta 0.65 recognition from property development as a results of higher overall group Major Shareholders (%) sales achieved since FY12 – see Figure 1 . However, YTD net profit dipped PNB (64.0) KWAP (8.7) 5% YoY to RM274mn, mainly due to higher taxes and profit distribution to EPF (6.1) the holders of perpetual bonds and non-controlling interests, as well as the recognition of GST impact and long term incentive plan (LTIP) expenses. According to management, the group recognized LTIP expenses and GST Forecast Revision FY14 FY15 provision which amounted to RM41mn and RM32.6mn respectively in Forecast Revision (%) 0.0 0.0 9MFY14. Excluding these, YTD net profit would have been grown by 13% Net profit (RMm) 411.8 554.1 and in line with its revenue growth. Consensus 464.5 624.3 TA's / Consensus (%) 88.7 88.8 Previous Rating Sell (Maintained) Figure 1: Sales Performance Financial Indicators FY14 FY15 Net Debt / Equity (%) 51.6 41.5 FCPS (sen) (29.8) 30.7 Price / CFPS (x) (11.1) 10.8 ROA (%) 3.8 4.9 NTA/Share (RM) 2.3 2.4 Price/NTA (x) 1.5 1.4 Scorecard % of FY vs TA 67.0 Below vs Consensus 59.0 Below Share Performance (%) Price Change SP Setia FBM KLCI Source: SP Setia, TA Research 1 mth (6.2) (1.0) 3 mth 12.6 (1.7) On a QoQ basis, 3QFY14 PBT grew 13% to RM188mn, largely due a sale of a 6 mth 11.1 1.3 piece of land in Setia Alam for the development of 1NIH Complex. Excluding 12 mth 1.5 4.1 the disposal gain which amounted to RM41mn, 3QFY14 PBT would have seen a decline of 11% QoQ. (12-Mth) Share Price relative to the FBM KLCI Forecast No change to our FY14-16 earnings, pending our meeting with management. Outlook SP Setia recorded new sales of RM3.8bn in 10MFY14, which were 39% lower than the same period last year – see Table 1 . The decline in sales was largely due to limited overseas project launches and weak sales performance in Johor. The group’s total unbilled sales were relatively stable Source: Bloomberg at RM10.9bn, which ensures more than 2 years’ earnings visibility. Page 1 of 5 TA Securities A Member of the TA Group 18-Sep-14 In Malaysia, Setia EcoHill @ Semenyih was the star performer, recording new sales of RM780mn (or 20% of total sales) from the sale of 1179 units out of 1230 unit launched (96% take up). On the overseas front, Battersea remains the key contributor to sales, contributing RM754mn towards property sales in 9MFY14. The group’s RM5bn sales target for FY14 is expected to be underpinned by Battersea projects in London and new phases within its on-going developments in Malaysia, which includes a new residential tower in KL Eco City. Meanwhile, Phase 3 of Battersea project, featuring 1,200 residential units, 200-room hotel, 350,000 sq. ft. retail and F&B space, 15,000 sq. ft. library and leisure space (GDV: £2.0bn), is slated for launch in Oct-14. Separately, the group announced that Dato’ Voon Tin Yow has tendered his resignation as the acting president and chief executive officer (CEO) of SP Setia and will leave his position on 1 Jan 2015. The Board also announced the election of Dato’ Khor Chap Jen, the present acting deputy president, to assume to role of acting president and CEO of the company effective 1 Jan 2015. Dato’ Khor will be supported by Datuk Wong Tuck Wai, who is presently an executive vice president, as his acting deputy president and chief operating officer. We are surprised by the earlier-than-expected departure of Dato’ Voon before his one-year management contract expires in 30 Apr 2015. In our opinion, frequent changes in leadership could hamper the development of SP Setia’s strategy direction, which may in turn affect the group’s project execution and profit margin. Valuation We maintain our Sell recommendation on SP Setia with an unchanged target price at RM3.08/share, based on 13x CY15 EPS. Our target PER of 13x is based on its 3-year historical -2 standard deviation. Earnings Summary (RMmn) YE Oct 31 FY12 FY13 FY14F FY15F FY16F Revenue 2526.6 3060.5 4549.4 6351.6 5635.0 EBITDA 599.3 661.4 861.8 1123.5 1140.6 EBITDA margin (%) 23.7 21.6 18.9 17.7 20.2 Pretax profit 567.5 570.3 744.2 970.3 1103.9 Net profit 393.8 417.9 411.8 554.1 722.6 Net profit -adj 393.8 417.9 411.8 554.1 722.6 EPS 20.5 17.0 16.7 22.5 29.4 EPS - adj 20.5 17.0 16.7 22.5 29.4 EPS Growth (Core) (%) 17.4 (17.1) (1.5) 34.6 30.4 PER 14.4 17.4 17.6 13.1 10.0 GDPS 14.0 11.0 11.0 12.0 14.7 Div Yield (%) 4.7 3.7 3.7 4.1 5.0 EV/EBITDA 14.0 14.1 12.0 8.8 8.6 ROE (%) 10.5 7.6 7.3 9.4 11.6 Page 2 of 5 TA Securities A Member of the TA Group 18-Sep-14 3Q14 Results Analysis (RMmn) YE 31 Oct 3Q13 2Q14 3Q14 QOQ% YOY% 9MFY13 9MFY14 YOY% Turnover 761.5 952.4 902.7 (5.2) 18.5 2295.5 2576.6 12.2 - Property 763.9 891.2 837.0 (6.1) 9.6 2164.1 2398.9 10.9 - Construction 19.5 38.8 40.6 4.8 108.7 64.8 105.0 62.1 - Others 23.5 22.3 25.0 12.0 6.5 66.6 72.7 9.1 Gross Profit 243.3 271.4 273.5 0.8 12.4 713.3 749.9 5.1 EBIT 156.5 196.7 214.5 9.1 37.1 490.9 581.0 18.3 Net Int Inc/ (exp) (12.0) (16.2) (14.0) (13.6) 16.1 (35.8) (44.0) 22.8 Associates 0.0 (15.1) (13.0) (14.4) nm (16.2) (36.9) >-100 EI 0.0 0.0 0.0 nm nm 0.0 0.0 nm Pretax 144.5 165.4 187.6 13.4 29.9 438.9 500.1 14.0 - Property 151.6 156.4 179.0 14.4 18.1 423.9 472.1 11.4 - Construction (0.9) (1.6) (6.0) >-100 >-100 (2.1) (8.3) >-100 - Others 7.4 10.5 14.6 39.0 98.3 17.1 36.4 >100 Taxation (40.3) (47.0) (61.2) 30.2 52.0 (109.8) (138.3) 26.0 Holders of Perpetual Bond 0.0 (8.8) (9.1) 3.4 nm 0.0 (22.9) nm Non Controlling Interest (2.3) (35.3) (14.0) (60.4) 503.5 (35.8) (64.5) 80.0 Reported Net Profit 101.9 74.3 103.3 39.1 1.4 288.7 274.4 (5.0) Core Net Profit 101.9 74.3 103.3 39.1 1.4 288.7 274.4 (5.0) Core EPS (sen) 4.1 3.0 4.1 36.4 (0.5) 12.6 11.1 (12.1) GDPS (sen) 0.0 4.0 0.0 (100.0) nm 4.0 4.0 0.0 ppt ppt ppt EBIT Margin (%) 20.5 20.7 23.8 3.1 3.2 21.4 22.5 1.2 Pretax Margin (%) 19.0 17.4 20.8 3.4 1.8 19.1 19.4 0.3 Net Margin (%) 13.4 7.8 11.4 3.6 (1.9) 12.6 10.6 (1.9) Page 3 of 5 TA Securities A Member of the TA Group 18-Sep-14 Table 1: Sales Breakdown by Project 10MFY13 10MFY14 Value per Value per Sales Value Launched Sales Value Launched Sales Value Sold Units Unit (RM Sold Units Unit (RM Growth (YoY Units (RMmn) Units (RMmn) '000) '000) %) Setia Alam 2088.0 2075.0 760.0 366.3 1509.0 1021.0 647.0 633.7 (14.9) Setia EcoHill 224.0 223.0 140.0 627.8 1230.0 1179.0 780.0 661.6 457.1 Setia Eco Park 0.0 32.0 109.0 3406.3 28.0 53.0 136.0 2566.0 24.8 Setia Eco Glades 282.0 251.0 461.0 1836.7 91.0 65.0 101.0 1553.8 (78.1) Setia Sky Residences 291.0 121.0 131.0 1082.6 0.0 136.0 152.0 1117.6 16.0 Setia Walk, Puchong 0.0 36.0 30.0 833.3 0.0 6.0 5.0 833.3 (83.3) KL Eco City 212.0 276.0 271.0 981.9 0.0 17.0 -34.0 nm (112.5) Setia Putrajaya 440.0 358.0 152.0 424.6 257.0 173.0 87.0 502.9 (42.8) Total Central Region 3537.0 3372.0 2054.0 609.1 3115.0 2650.0 1874.0 707.2 (8.8) Bukit Indah, Johor 461.0 525.0 339.0 645.7 174.0 243.0 161.0 662.6 (52.5) Setia Indah, Johor 12.0 144.0 76.0 527.8 0.0 35.0 15.0 428.6 (80.3) Setia Tropika, Johor 128.0 274.0 223.0 813.9 8.0 56.0 70.0 1250.0 (68.6) Setia Eco Gardens, Johor 194.0 424.0 324.0 764.2 263.0 306.0 99.0 323.5 (69.4) Setia Eco Cascadia 0.0 83.0 68.0 819.3 107.0 35.0 54.0 1542.9 (20.6) Setia Business Park II 47.0 36.0 94.0 2611.1 0.0 16.0 25.0 1562.5 (73.4) Setia Sky 88 0.0 206.0 162.0 786.4 150.0 34.0 37.0 1088.2 (77.2) Total Southern Region 842.0 1692.0 1286.0 760.0 702.0 725.0 461.0 635.9 (64.2) Setia Pearl Island, Penang 0.0 93.0 96.0 1032.3 77.0 23.0 25.0 1087.0 (74.0) Setia Vista 0.0 10.0 0.4 42.0 0.0 5.0 1.0 200.0 138.1 Setia Greens 434.0 345.0 218.0 631.9 0.0 20.0 19.0 950.0 (91.3) 11 Brook Residence 0.0 2.0 14.0 7000.0 0.0 1.0 7.0 7000.0 (50.0) Setia V Residences 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 72.0 39.0 88.0 2256.4 nm Total Northern Region 434.0 450.0 328.4 729.8 149.0 88.0 140.0 1590.9 (57.4) Aeropod 80.0 49.0 69.0 1408.2 0.0 50.0 22.0 440.0 (68.1) Total - Malaysia 4893.0 5563.0 3737.4 671.8 3966.0 3513.0 2497.0 710.8 (33.2) Fultone Lane, Melbourne 8.0 221.0 409.0 1850.7 18.0 144.0 261.0 1812.5 (36.2) Parque, Meldourne 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 112.0 223.0 1991.1 nm 18 Woodsville, Singapore 0.0 14.0 53.0 3785.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 nm (100.0) Eco Sanctuary, Singapore 483.0 346.0 824.0 2381.5 0.0 28.0 73.0 2607.1 (91.1) Eco Lake, My Phuoc 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 nm nm Eco Xuan, Lai Thieu 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 nm nm Battersea.
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