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MONETARY POLICY, ECONOMIC CYCLE and FINANCIAL DYNAMICS March 2003 CONTENTS

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MONETARY POLICY, ECONOMIC CYCLE and FINANCIAL DYNAMICS March 2003 CONTENTS COLLOQUE INTERNATIONAL POLITIQUE MONÉTAIRE, CYCLE ÉCONOMIQUE ET DYNAMIQUE FINANCIÈRE Mars 2003 INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM MONETARY POLICY, ECONOMIC CYCLE AND FINANCIAL DYNAMICS March 2003 CONTENTS (Participants titles are at the time of the Symposium) About the Contributors 199 Symposium Summary 213 Opening Speech Jean-Claude Trichet, Governor, Banque de France 227 BUSINESS AND FINANCIAL CYCLES: STYLISED FACTS 229 Session chaired by Olivier Jean Blanchard, Professor, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cyclicity and International Financial Developments. Cycles and Systemics Risks, Contagion and Globalisation, and Institutions and Financial Stability Ray Barrell, Professor, National Institute for Economic and Social Research 231 Panel Jean-Philippe Cotis, Chief Economist, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 250 Christine Cumming, Executive Vice-President, Federal Reserve Bank of New York 252 Pierre-Yves Hénin, Professor, University of Paris I 256 CHANGES IN MARKET STRUCTURES AND BEHAVIOUR PATTERNS 259 Session chaired by Alexandre Lamfalussy, Professor, Catholic University of Louvain Asset Price Volatility and Monetary Policy Patrick Artus, Head of Economic Research, CDC-Ixis 261 Panel Mervyn King, Deputy Governor, Bank of England 283 CYCLICALITY AND MONETARY POLICY 289 Session chaired by Ernst Welteke, President, Deutsche Bundesbank 291 Economic Cycles and Monetary Policy Lucas Papademos, Vice-President, European Central Bank 293 Panel Stanley Fisher, Vice-Chairman, Citigroup Inc. 312 Jürgen von Hagen, Professor, Center for European integration studies (ZEI), Bonn 314 Yutaka Yamaguchi, Deputy Governor, Bank of Japan 316 BANQUE DE FRANCE – Monetary Policy, Economic Cycle and Financial Dynamics 5 GLOBALISATION AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE 319 Session chaired by Jean-Claude Trichet, Governor, Banque de France Lecture: Global Finance – Is it slowing? Alan Greenspan, Chairman of the Board of governors, Federal Reserve System 321 CYCLICALITY AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL STABILITY 327 Session chaired by Jaime Caruana, Governor, Banco de España 329 Round Table Asset Prices and the Need for New Policy Instruments: the Case of Countercyclical Margin Policy Gikas Hardouvelis, Chief Economic Adviser, Economic Office to the Prime Minister of Greece 331 Panel Gerd Häusler, Councellor and Director (International Capital Markets Department), International Monetary Fund 351 Philippe Lagayette, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, JP Morgan France 356 Guillermo Ortiz, Governor, Banco de México 360 Jaime Cuarana, Governor, Banco de España 365 Concluding Remarks Andrew Crockett, General Manager, Bank for International Settlements 367 Participants 373 6 BANQUE DE FRANCE – Monetary Policy, Economic Cycle and Financial Dynamics THE CONTRIBUTORS Participants titles are at the time of the Symposium About the contributors (March 2003) Artus Patrick Head of Economic Research, CDC-Ixis Mr Artus is Head of Economic Research at CDC-Ixis, where he is responsible for market research. He has been a member of the French Council of Economic Analysis (Conseil d’analyse économique – CAE) since 1997 and a member of the Commission économique de la Nation since 1998. Mr Artus is a graduate of the École polytechnique (class of 1970), of the Institut d’études politiques de Paris (1975) and of the École nationale de la statistique et de l’administration économique – ENSAE (1975). After having been an administrator at INSEE, the French national statistical office, from 1975 to 1980, Mr Artus worked as an economist at the OECD, where he was in charge of issues related to inflation, wage and interest rate setting, and investment (1980-1982). He was the Head of Research at ENSAE from 1982 to 1985 and held the post of Special Advisor at the Directorate General Research of the Banque de France (1985-1988). He joined the Caisse des dépôts et consignations in 1988. He successively held the posts of Head of the Economic and Financial Research Division, then Head of Asset and Liability Management and was finally appointed Head of Economic Research, in charge of market research, in 1993. Mr Artus was Professor at the Universities of Lausanne and Paris-Dauphine. Since 1996, he has been associate professor at the University Paris I and professor of international economics at the École polytechnique. From 1993-1995, he was Vice-President, then President of the Association française des sciences économiques. He has also been associate publisher of several journals. Mr Artus is the author of a number of scientific books and articles. His most recent publications are: “Le choix du système de retraites”, with F. Legros (1999); “Crises des pays émergents” (2000); “L’euro et la Banque centrale européenne” (2001); “La nouvelle économie” (2001); “Politique monétaire” (2001). Barrell Raymond Professor, National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Mr Barrell has been a Senior Research Fellow at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (United Kingdom), since 1990. He is director of research on macroeconomic analysis of World Economy, director of research programme into Trade and Investment. Mr Barrell holds a B. Sc. and M. Sc. in economics (London School of Economics). Between 1976 and 1984, Mr Barrell was lecturer at Sussex, Stirling, Brunel and Southhampton Universities, before serving as Economic Adviser at Her Majesty’s Treasury (1984-1987). He joined the NIESR as Senior Research Officer (1988-1990), before becoming Senior Research Fellow (1990). Research interests BANQUE DE FRANCE – Monetary Policy, Economic Cycle and Financial Dynamics 201 About the Contributors (March 2003) include the study of economic integration in Europe, the economic analysis of the location decision and the implications for the growth process, the analysis of capital markets, and the analysis of labour markets. Mr Barrell’s publications include edited books and regular contributions to the forecast chapters in the National Institute Economic Review. A number of papers have addressed issues concerning globalisation and the factors affecting the location of economic activity, as well as structural change in European labour markets, the process of monetary integration in Europe and the effects of the process of increasing European economic integration. Recent books include: “Economic convergence and monetary union” (1992); “Macroeconomic policy co-ordination in Europe: the ERM and monetary union”, with J. Whitley (1992); “the UK labour market” (1994); “Capital market liberalisation in Europe”, et al. (1997) ; “Modern budgeting in the public sector”, et al. (1999); “Investment, innovation and the diffusion of technology in Europe”, with N. Pain (1999); “Productivity, innovation and economic performance”, et al. (2000). Blanchard Olivier Jean Professeur, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Mr Blanchard is the Class of 1941 Professor of Economics and past Chair of the Economics Department at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology – MIT– (United States). A citizen of France, he was educated at the University of Paris and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology were he earned a Ph. D. in economics in 1977. Mr Blanchard taught at Harvard University as Assistant Professor (1977-1981), then Associate Professor (1981-1983), returning to MIT in 1983 as Associate Professor (1983-1985), then Professor (1985-). He is a fellow and Council Member of the Econometric Society, a past vice president of the American Economic Association, a member of the American Academy of Sciences, and a member of the French Economic Advisory Council to the French Prime Minister. He is the author and co-author of many books and articles, including two textbooks in macroeconomics, one at the graduate level (“Lectures on Macroeconomics”, with S. Fisher, 1989), one at the undergraduate level. He recently published “Reform in Eastern Europe” (1991); “Pour l’emploi et la cohésion sociale” (1994); “Spanish unemployment: is there a solution?” (1995); “The economics of post- communist transition” (1997); “Macroeconomics” (1997, 2000, 2003); “Macroeconomic policy in the first year of Euroland”, with D. Gros et al. (1998); “Monitoring the ECB”, with A. Alesina et al. (2001); “The consequences of saying no”, with D. Begg et al. (2003); “La protection de l’emploi”, with J. Tirole (2003). Caruana Jaime Governor of the Banco de España Mr Caruana is the Governor of the Banco de España and a member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank, since 2000. In 2003 he was appointed Chairman of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. He is a Telecommunications Engineer from the Universidad Complutense de Madrid (1974). 202 BANQUE DE FRANCE – Monetary Policy, Economic Cycle and Financial Dynamics About the Contributors (March 2003) Mr Caruana joined the Spanish Ministry of Trade, where he occupied various posts in the Directorate General for Imports, and in the Spanish Foreign Trade Institute, between 1979 and 1984. He was commercial attaché to the Spanish Commercial Office in New York (1984-1987), Managing Director and chief Executive Officer of Renta 4 (1987-1991), then President of Renta 4, from 1991 to 1996. Between 1996 and 1999, Mr Caruana was General Director of the Treasury and Financial Policy, member of the Board of the SEPI (State Holding Company) and the representative for Spain at the Monetary Committee of the European Union. President of the SETE (Euro state company) between 1997 and 1999, Mr Caruana served as General Director for Supervision at the Banco de España (1999-2000), before
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