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Snap Elections Company Kapa Research S.A. Principal TO VIMA Purpose Opinion poll on the latest political developments in Greece Representative, men and women, 18 years old and over, based on Sample Characteristics the 2011 household census Sample Size / Geographical 1005 respondents, nationally, proportionally distributed Distributions throughout the country’s 13 regions Period of Data Collection 12 – 14 April 2016 Multistage sampling using quotas with respect to geographical Sampling Method distribution, gender, and age of the population. Weighting adjustment was based on the September 2015 election results Data Collection Method Tel ephone Intervi ew s Standard Error 3.1% at the 95% confidence interval Member of ESOMAR and Greek Association of Opinion and Market About Kapa Research S.A. Research Companies (SEDEA). Complies with the deontological rules of conduct and publication of opinion surveys SECTIONS I. First program review negotiations II. State and direction of the country III. Political indicators IV. Six years after the first bailout I. First program review negotiations EVALUATION OF THE GOVERNMENT IN NEGOTIATIONS How would you evaluate the way the government is negotiating with the Country’s Creditors for the ongoing first program review? Rather negatively & Negatively 70.6 % 60 51.3 50 40 Positively & Rather positively 23.9 % 30 19.3 16.3 20 7.6 5.5 10 0 Positively Rather positively Rather negatively Negatively DK/NA OPINION ON GOVERNMENT’S DECISION TO SURPASS AGREEMENT The government announCed that next weekit will introduCe tax and pension reform bills in Parliament, regardless of whether there is an agreement with the Creditor institutions. In your opinion, this move is in the right or in the wrong direCtion? Wrong & Rather wrong 53.9 % 36.6 40 30 Right & Rather right 32.1 % 17.3 15.9 16.2 20 14.0 10 0 Right Rather right Rather wrong Wrong DK/NA OPINIONS ON THE GOVERNMENT’s NEXT MOVES The government’s negotiations with the Country’s Creditors for the first program review seem to be faCing diffiCulties. With whiCh of the following opinions do you agree more? 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 29.0 "The government should immediately complete the review, even if this entails painful measures" 26.9 "The government should Continue to negotiate, even if the eConomy is under pressure" 38.5 "The government should Choose 'rupture' with the Creditors, if they don't respeCt its red lines" 5.6 DK/NA IN CASE OF PAINFUL MEASURES: PARLIAMENT VOTE or REFERENDUM? If eventually the measures required to complete the first program review are painful, what should the government do? DK/NA 19.4 Pass them through parliament vote, as soon as possible, in order to Complete the review 46.3 Hold a referendum on the measures 34.3 VOTING INTENTION IN A POSSIBLE REFERENDUM And if, eventually, the government holds a referendum on the new measures, what would you vote for: "Yes, I approve the measures" or "No, I do not approve the measures"? 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 23.0 Yes, I approve the measures 54.8 No, I do not approve the measures 0.4 Blank / Invalid 9.5 Would not vote 8.8 UndeCided 3.5 NA DESIRED POLICY MIX: "NO" TO THE DILEMMA From the following, what is in your opinion the best Combination of measures to return to growth: ReduCing pensions and government spending or inCreasing taxes and social seCurity Contributions? DK/NA 3.9 ReduCing pensions and government spending 26.5 None of the two 55.1 InCreasing taxes and soCial Contributions 14.5 THE OPPOSITION’S STANCE IN PARLIAMENT In your opinion, in an upComing parliament vote on pension and tax reforms, what should the stanCe of the opposition parties that voted in favor of the third bailout agreement be? DK/NA 15.3 They should vote in favor of the reform measures beCause these are part of the third bailout agreement 46.3 They should vote against the reform measures beCause the current government is solely responsible 38.4 THE ROLE OF THE IMF Do you Consider the IMF as neCessary in the Troika and the bailout, or you think it should be left out? DK/NA 15.2 It is neCessary 28.6 It should be left out 56.2 II. State and direction of the country SENTIMENTS ON THE CURRENT STATE OF THE COUNTRY These days what feeling prevails in your daily life with regard to the Country's situation? UP TO 4 CHOICES 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 4.4 Faith 13.0 Hope 0.4 Happiness 2.1 Pride 77.8 Disappointment 71.4 Anger 43.0 Fear 81.4 ConCern 1.3 None of these 0.3 DK/NA GREECE IN NATO, THE EU AND THE EUROZONE You think that GreeCe should remain as a member of [….........] or not? Remain & Rather remain Rather leave & Leave DK/NA 74.7 1.7 European Union 23.6 72.7 24.7 2.6 NATO 60.3 4.7 Eurozone 35.0 THE NEXT FIVE YEARS More speCifiCally, whiCh direCtion do you think the Country needs to follow in the next five years? DK/NA 6.0 We should remain in the Eurozone, fulfilling the bailout agreement 49.5 We should seriously consider leaving the Eurozone 44.5 REFUGEE ISSUE: EVALUATION OF GOVERNMENT How would you evaluate the stanCe of the SYRIZA-ANEL government on the refugee issue? Rather negatively & Negatively 74.2 % 56.9 50 40 Positively & Rather positively 30 24.2 % 17.3 16.5 20 7.7 10 1.6 0 Positively Rather positively Rather negatively Negatively DK/NA REFUGEE ISSUE: EVALUATION OF MAIN OPPOSITION And how would you evaluate the stanCe of the main opposition party, New DemoCraCy, on the refugee issue? Rather negatively & Negatively 66.9 % 50 43.3 40 Positively & Rather positively 26.0 % 30 23.6 20.8 20 7.1 10 5.2 0 Positively Rather positively Rather negatively Negatively DK/NA STANCE ON THE PRESENCE OF REFUGEES & IMMIGRANTS IN GREECE In your view, the presenCe of refugees and immigrants in our Country is more of an opportunity or a threat? DK/NA 24.2 Opportunity 30.6 Threat 45.2 WILLING TO MOVE ABROAD Are you or any of your first degree relatives thinking of moving abroad for work or eduCation? UP TO 2 CHOICES 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 20.9 Yes, I am 37.5 Yes, a first degree relative of mine 44.4 No 3.6 DK/NA FAMILIES WITH A MEMBER LIVING ABROAD Is there any first degree relative of yours who Currently lives abroad for work or eduCation? DK/NA 0.9 Yes 36.7 No 62.4 III. Political indicators GOVERNMENT’s JOB APPROVAL Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job the government is doing sinCe the last eleCtions in September 2015? Rather disapprove & Disapprove 79.7 % 63.4 70 60 50 40 Approve & Rather approve 18.8 % 30 16.3 12.3 20 6.5 10 1.5 0 Approve Rather approve Rather Disapprove DK/NA disapprove MAIN OPPOSITION’s JOB APPROVAL Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job New DemoCraCy is doing after its presidential eleCtion in January 2016? Rather disapprove & Disapprove 66.1 % 48.0 50 40 Approve & Rather approve 29.4 % 30 19.3 18.1 20 10.1 10 4.5 0 Approve Rather approve Rather disapprove Disapprove DK/NA PREFERED GOVERNMENT Generally speaking and based on the alternative options available, do you Consider the current government as the most preferable or you think that a better one Could be formed? The Current DK/NA government is the 9.7 most preferable 20.0 A better one Could be formed 70.3 SNAP ELECTIONS: YES or NO? WhiCh of the following do you think should happen: Snap eleCtions should take plaCe immediately or more time should be given to the Current government? DK/NA 10.9 Snap eleCtions should take plaCe immediately 41.0 More time should be given to the current government 48.1 OPINION ON THE NEED FOR A GOVERNMENT RESHUFFLE Do you think that a government reshuffle is neCessary? Yes & Yes, probably 55.2 % 40 33.8 30 Probably not & No 27.5 % 21.4 17.5 17.3 20 10.0 10 0 Yes Yes, probably Probably not No DK/NA MOST SUITABLE FOR PRIME MINISTER Between Alexis Tsipras and Kyriakos Mitsotakis, in your opinion, who is more suitable for the Prime Minister’s job? DK/NA 2.1 Αlexis Tsipras 29.7 Νone of the two 38.2 Κyriakos Mitsotakis 30.0 VOTING INTENTION If national eleCtions were to be held today, whiCh party would you vote for? All possible answers (32,7) (January 2016 results) 30 (19.5) (20.8) (5.8) (4.1) (5.3) (2.1) (2.9) (2.4) ( - ) (2.7) (3.7) (14.7) (14.3) 25 31,9 21.4 20 18.4 17.8 15 11.3 10 6.0 5.4 4.9 3.5 5 2.5 2.6 2.8 1.8 1.6 0 Wouldn’t NATIONAL Other Blank/ UndeCided Vote UNITY Parties Invalid (Abstention) VOTING INTENTION UndeCided, blanks/invalids, and abstention inCorporated 35 31.4 30 27.0 25 20 15 8.0 8.7 10 7.2 5.1 3.7 3.8 5 2.7 2.4 0 NATIONAL Other UNITY Parties EXPECTED ELECTION WINNER If eleCtions were held today, whiCh party would win? DK/NA 15.2 SYRIZA 27.6 New DemoCraCy 57.2 IV. Six years after the first bailout ASSESSMENT OF PERSONAL VOTE IN THE LAST FOUR ELECTIONS Retrospectively thinking, would you say that you voted correctly or inCorreCtly in eaCh of the last four elections? CorreCtly InCorreCtly Didn't vote DK/NA 10.0 3.2 May 2012 68.5 18.3 68.3 18.4 June 2012 10.2 3.1 67.9 January 2015 18.1 11.6 2.4 66.2 15.1 15.8 September 2015 2.9 ASSESSMENT OF ELECTORAL RESULT OF THE LAST FOUR ELECTIONS And as far as the whole eleCtorate is ConCerned, would you say that it voted correctly or inCorreCtly in eaCh of the last four eleCtions? CorreCtly InCorreCtly DK/NA May 2012 30.8 60.5 8.7 30.4 63.3 6.3 June 2012 30.0 8.5 January 2015 61.5 21.3 72.3 6.4 September 2015 EVALUATION OF BAILOUT PERIOD GOVERNMENTS How would you retrospeCtively evaluate eaCh of the following governments? Positively & Rather positively Rather negatively & Negatively DK/NA 4.1 Papademos 2011-2012 26.0 69.9 75.8 0.5 Samaras 2012-2014 23.7 0.7 Tsipras 2015 to date 22.5 76.8 11.8 87.5 0.7 Papandreou 2009-2011 OPINION ON BAILOUT PERIOD FINANCE MINISTERS And what is your opinion of eaCh of the following FinanCe Ministers? Positive & Rather positive Rather negative & Negative DK/NA Yannis Stournaras 36.8 61.9 1.3 62.5 1.6 EuClid Tsakalotos 35.9 Yanis Varoufakis 30.6 68.6 0.8 71.1 Gikas Hardouvelis 26.0 2.9 Evangelos Venizelos 23.0 76.2 0.8 88.7 1.2 George Papakonstantinou 10.1 RESPONSIBILITIES Six years after the first bailout, the Country has been unable to get baCk on traCk.
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