The Syrian Islamic Front: a New Extremist Force by Aaron Y
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The Political Direction of Which Ariel Sharon's Disengagement Plan Forms a Part Is the Most Significant Development in Israe
FRAGMENTED SYRIA: THE BALANCE OF FORCES AS OF LATE 2013 By Jonathan Spyer* Syria today is divided de facto into three identifiable entities. These three entities are: first, the Asad regime itself, which has survived all attempts to divide it from within. The second area is the zone controlled by the rebels. In this area there is no central authority. Rather, the territory is divided up into areas controlled by a variety of militias. The third area consists of majority-Kurdish northeast Syria. This area is under the control of the PYD (Democratic Union Party), the Syrian franchise of the PKK. This article will look into how this situation emerged, and examine its implications for the future of Syria. As the Syrian civil war moves toward its The emergence of a de facto divided Syria fourth anniversary, there are no signs of is the result first and foremost of the Asad imminent victory or defeat for either of the regime’s response to its strategic predicament sides. The military situation has reached a in the course of 2012. By the end of 2011, the stalemate. The result is that Syria today is uprising against the regime had transformed divided de facto into three identifiable entities, from a largely civilian movement into an each of which is capable of defending its armed insurgency, largely because of the existence against threats from either of the regime’s very brutal and ruthless response to others. civilian demonstrations against it. This These three entities are: first, the Asad response did not produce the decline of regime itself, which has survived all attempts opposition, but rather the formation of armed to divide it from within. -
The Islamic Front by Aaron Y
MENU Policy Analysis / PolicyWatch 2177 Rebels Consolidating Strength in Syria: The Islamic Front by Aaron Y. Zelin Dec 3, 2013 ABOUT THE AUTHORS Aaron Y. Zelin Aaron Y. Zelin is the Richard Borow Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy where his research focuses on Sunni Arab jihadi groups in North Africa and Syria as well as the trend of foreign fighting and online jihadism. Brief Analysis The latest umbrella organization for key rebel factions in Syria may not include U.S.-designated terrorist groups, but it does oppose many U.S. objectives. he recent merger of several Syrian rebel groups into the Islamic Front (IF) is one of the war's most important T developments. Although the political and military opposition has long been fragmented, the new umbrella organization brings seven groups and their combined force of 45,000-60,000 fighters under one command. It also links the fight in the north and the south. Most notably, though, it affirms the troubles Washington will have setting policy in Syria going forward. WHO ARE THEY? F ormally announced on November 22, the IF includes groups from three prior umbrella organizations: the Syrian Islamic Front (SIF), the Syrian Islamic Liberation Front (SILF), and the Kurdish Islamic Front (KIF). From the SIF, Harakat Ahrar al-Sham al-Islamiyya (HASI), Kataib Ansar al-Sham, and Liwa al-Haqq joined, as did the KIF as a whole and former SILF brigades Suqur al-Sham, Liwa al-Tawhid, and Jaish al-Islam. None of these groups has been designated by the U.S. -
The Jihadi Threat: ISIS, Al-Qaeda, and Beyond
THE JIHADI THREAT ISIS, AL QAEDA, AND BEYOND The Jihadi Threat ISIS, al- Qaeda, and Beyond Robin Wright William McCants United States Institute of Peace Brookings Institution Woodrow Wilson Center Garrett Nada J. M. Berger United States Institute of Peace International Centre for Counter- Terrorism Jacob Olidort The Hague Washington Institute for Near East Policy William Braniff Alexander Thurston START Consortium, University of Mary land Georgetown University Cole Bunzel Clinton Watts Prince ton University Foreign Policy Research Institute Daniel Byman Frederic Wehrey Brookings Institution and Georgetown University Car ne gie Endowment for International Peace Jennifer Cafarella Craig Whiteside Institute for the Study of War Naval War College Harleen Gambhir Graeme Wood Institute for the Study of War Yale University Daveed Gartenstein- Ross Aaron Y. Zelin Foundation for the Defense of Democracies Washington Institute for Near East Policy Hassan Hassan Katherine Zimmerman Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy American Enterprise Institute Charles Lister Middle East Institute Making Peace Possible December 2016/January 2017 CONTENTS Source: Image by Peter Hermes Furian, www . iStockphoto. com. The West failed to predict the emergence of al- Qaeda in new forms across the Middle East and North Africa. It was blindsided by the ISIS sweep across Syria and Iraq, which at least temporarily changed the map of the Middle East. Both movements have skillfully continued to evolve and proliferate— and surprise. What’s next? Twenty experts from think tanks and universities across the United States explore the world’s deadliest movements, their strate- gies, the future scenarios, and policy considerations. This report reflects their analy sis and diverse views. -
The Dynamics of Syria's Civil
CHILDREN AND FAMILIES The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and EDUCATION AND THE ARTS decisionmaking through research and analysis. ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE This electronic document was made available from www.rand.org as a public service INFRASTRUCTURE AND of the RAND Corporation. TRANSPORTATION INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS LAW AND BUSINESS Skip all front matter: Jump to Page 16 NATIONAL SECURITY POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY Support RAND SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Browse Reports & Bookstore TERRORISM AND Make a charitable contribution HOMELAND SECURITY For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore the RAND Corporation View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non- commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND electronic documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND electronic documents are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. RAND perspectives (PEs) present informed perspective on a timely topic that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND perspectives undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. Perspective C O R P O R A T I O N Expert insights on a timely policy issue The Dynamics of Syria’s Civil War Brian Michael Jenkins Principal Observations One-third of the population has fled the country or has been displaced internally. -
Into the Tunnels
REPORT ARAB POLITICS BEYOND THE UPRISINGS Into the Tunnels The Rise and Fall of Syria’s Rebel Enclave in the Eastern Ghouta DECEMBER 21, 2016 — ARON LUND PAGE 1 In the sixth year of its civil war, Syria is a shattered nation, broken into political, religious, and ethnic fragments. Most of the population remains under the control of President Bashar al-Assad, whose Russian- and Iranian-backed Baʻath Party government controls the major cities and the lion’s share of the country’s densely populated coastal and central-western areas. Since the Russian military intervention that began in September 2015, Assad’s Syrian Arab Army and its Shia Islamist allies have seized ground from Sunni Arab rebel factions, many of which receive support from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, or the United States. The government now appears to be consolidating its hold on key areas. Media attention has focused on the siege of rebel-held Eastern Aleppo, which began in summer 2016, and its reconquest by government forces in December 2016.1 The rebel enclave began to crumble in November 2016. Losing its stronghold in Aleppo would be a major strategic and symbolic defeat for the insurgency, and some supporters of the uprising may conclude that they have been defeated, though violence is unlikely to subside. However, the Syrian government has also made major strides in another besieged enclave, closer to the capital. This area, known as the Eastern Ghouta, is larger than Eastern Aleppo both in terms of area and population—it may have around 450,000 inhabitants2—but it has gained very little media interest. -
Cash Is King: Financial Sponsorship and Changing Priorities in the Syrian Civil War
Studies in Conflict & Terrorism ISSN: 1057-610X (Print) 1521-0731 (Online) Journal homepage: http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/uter20 Cash is King: Financial Sponsorship and Changing Priorities in the Syrian Civil War Anne Marie Baylouny & Creighton A. Mullins To cite this article: Anne Marie Baylouny & Creighton A. Mullins (2017): Cash is King: Financial Sponsorship and Changing Priorities in the Syrian Civil War, Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, DOI: 10.1080/1057610X.2017.1366621 To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2017.1366621 Accepted author version posted online: 25 Aug 2017. Published online: 25 Aug 2017. Submit your article to this journal Article views: 129 View related articles View Crossmark data Full Terms & Conditions of access and use can be found at http://www.tandfonline.com/action/journalInformation?journalCode=uter20 Download by: [NPS Dudley Knox Library] Date: 04 October 2017, At: 12:56 STUDIES IN CONFLICT & TERRORISM https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2017.1366621 Cash is King: Financial Sponsorship and Changing Priorities in the Syrian Civil War Anne Marie Baylounya and Creighton A. Mullinsb aNational Security Affairs, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA; bU.S. Air Force ABSTRACT The role of resources in war has been much debated. What happens when foreign patrons provide lavish amounts of cash to rebels, without mechanisms of accountability? This article analyzes three major sources of funding and their micro-level effects on insurgent-groups in the Syrian civil war. Recipients of funding demonstrated opportunism in actions, alliances, and ideologies, directly related to the funding source. Funders thus set the agenda of the war, promoting Islamist ideologies and regional over local issues. -
Public Opinion Towards Terrorist Organizations in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Libya a Special Focus on Dai’Sh in Iraq
Public Opinion Towards Terrorist Organizations in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Libya A special focus on Dai’sh in Iraq Discussion hosted by Anthony H. Cordesman, Burke Chair in Strategy, CSIS, featuring Munqith M. Dagher Independent Institute for Administration and Civil Society Studies (IIACSS) Iraq Prepared for March 4, 2015 Presentation at CSIS, Washington, D.C. Methodology • Series of F2F nation wide polls conducted in Iraq since 2003. • 3 F2F nation wide polls conducted in Libya (2012-2014) • Two F2F nation wide polls conducted in each of Yemen and Syria (2013-2014) • In depth interviews with opinion leaders from areas controlled by ISIL. Introduction • Modern militant Islamic movements started in 1979 with Khomeini’s revolution in Iran • Al Qa'ida which established to fight Soviet Union in Afghanistan was very active in Iraq between 2004-2010 • ISIL (Dai’sh) – Appeared in Syria in 2013 as one of the main players there – Used by Asad to justify the suppression of the revolution, on one hand, and to gain international support on the other hand – The beginning of ISIL activities in Iraq was in Anbar after the ignorance of central government to demonstrator’s demands Nation-wide survey 8th June 2014 Introduction • Dai’sh is the latest and most powerful incarnation of what began as an al-Qaida affiliate in Iraq following the 2003 US-led invasion. • American forces spent years and enormous resources to bring the group largely to heel before US troops pulled out of the country in December of 2011. • Since then, the region has been convulsed in political turmoil and sectarian hatred. -
Iran's Networks of Influence in the Middle East
an strategic dossier IRAN’S NETWORKS OF INFLUENCE IN THE MIDDLE EAST published by The International Institute for Strategic Studies ARUNDEL HOUSE | 6 TEMPLE PLACE | LONDON | WC2R 2PG | UK 1 an strategic dossier IRAN’S NETWORKS OF INFLUENCE IN THE MIDDLE EAST The International Institute for Strategic Studies ARUNDEL HOUSE | 6 TEMPLE PLACE | LONDON | WC2R 2PG | UK DIRECTOR-GENERAL AND CHIEF EXECUTIVE Dr John Chipman This publication has been prepared by the Director-General and Chief Executive of the Institute and his staff. It incorporates commissioned contributions from recognised subject experts, which were reviewed by a range of experts in the field. The IISS would like to thank the various individuals who contributed their expertise to the compilation of this dossier. The responsibility for the contents is ours alone. The views expressed herein do not, and indeed cannot, represent a consensus of views among the worldwide membership of the Institute as a whole. First published November 2019 by the International Institute for Strategic Studies. © 2019 The International Institute for Strategic Studies cover images: Top: Background: A Lebanese Hizbullah fighter near Arsal, Lebanon, 26 July 2017 (Anwar Amro/AFP/ Getty Images); main images, top–bottom: Popular Mobilisation Units fighters launch missiles targeting the village of Salmani, south of Mosul, in Iraq’s Nineva province, 30 October 2016 (Ahmad Al-Rubaye/AFP/Getty Images); Major- General Qasem Soleimani, commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) attends a meeting between Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (not pictured) and the IRGC in Tehran, 18 September 2016 (by Pool/Press Office of Iranian Supreme Leader/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images); Pro-government forces at a funeral ceremony at the Sayyida Zainab mosque in Damascus, Syria, 26 April 2017 (Louai Beshara/AFP/Getty Images) Printed and bound in the UK by Hobbs the Printers Ltd. -
EUI RSCAS Working Paper 2021/08 How Global Jihad Relocalises And
RSC 2021/08 Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies The Middle East Directions Programme How Global Jihad Relocalises and Where it Leads. The Case of HTS, the Former AQ Franchise in Syria Jerome Drevon and Patrick Haenni European University Institute Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies The Middle East Directions Programm How Global Jihad Relocalises and Where it Leads. The Case of HTS, the Former AQ Franchise in Syria Jerome Drevon and Patrick Haenni EUI Working Paper RSC 2021/08 Terms of access and reuse for this work are governed by the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC- BY 4.0) International license. If cited or quoted, reference should be made to the full name of the author(s), editor(s), the title, the working paper series and number, the year and the publisher. ISSN 1028-3625 © Jerome Drevon and Patrick Haenni, 2021 This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC-BY 4.0) International license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Published in January 2021 by the European University Institute. Badia Fiesolana, via dei Roccettini 9 I – 50014 San Domenico di Fiesole (FI) Italy Views expressed in this publication reflect the opinion of individual author(s) and not those of the European University Institute. This publication is available in Open Access in Cadmus, the EUI Research Repository: https://cadmus.eui.eu Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies The Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies, created in 1992 and currently directed by Professor Brigid Laffan, aims to develop inter-disciplinary and comparative research on the major issues facing the process of European integration, European societies and Europe’s place in 21st century global politics. -
Download the Full Report
HUMAN “Maybe We Live RIGHTS and Maybe We Die” WATCH Recruitment and Use of Children by Armed Groups in Syria “Maybe We Live and Maybe We Die” Recruitment and Use of Children by Armed Groups in Syria Copyright © 2014 Human Rights Watch All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America ISBN: 978-1-62313-1425 Cover design by Rafael Jimenez Human Rights Watch defends the rights of people worldwide. We scrupulously investigate abuses, expose the facts widely, and pressure those with power to respect rights and secure justice. Human Rights Watch is an independent, international organization that works as part of a vibrant movement to uphold human dignity and advance the cause of human rights for all. Human Rights Watch is an international organization with staff in more than 40 countries, and offices in Amsterdam, Beirut, Berlin, Brussels, Chicago, Geneva, Goma, Johannesburg, London, Los Angeles, Moscow, Nairobi, New York, Paris, San Francisco, Sydney, Tokyo, Toronto, Tunis, Washington DC, and Zurich. For more information, please visit our website: http://www.hrw.org JUNE 2014 ISBN: 978-1-62313-1425 “Maybe We Live and Maybe We Die” Recruitment and Use of Children by Armed Groups in Syria Summary ......................................................................................................................... 1 Recommendations ........................................................................................................... 5 To All Armed Groups Fighting in Syria ....................................................................................... -
Islamists, Religion, and the Revolution in Syria
Islamists, Religion, and the Revolution in Syria Mohammad Abu Rumman ΔϴϤηΎϬϟΔϴϧΩέϷΔϜϠϤϤϟ ΔϴϨρϮϟΔΒΘϜϤϟΓήΩϯΪϟωΪϳϹϢϗέ (2013/9/3259) ή˷ΒόϳϻϭϪϔϨμϣϯϮΘΤϣϦϋΔϴϧϮϧΎϘϟΔϴϟϭΆδϤϟϞϣΎϛϒϟΆϤϟϞϤΤΘϳ ϯήΧΔϴϣϮϜΣΔϬΟϱϭϪϴϨρϮϟΔΒΘϜϤϟΓήΩϱέ ϦϋϒϨμϤϟάϫ Imprint Published in 2013 by Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, FES Jordan & Iraq / FES Syria FES Jordan & Iraq P.O. Box 941876 Amman 11194, Jordan Email: [email protected] Website: www.fes-jordan.org FES Syria P.O. Box 116107 Riad El Solh Beirut 1107 2210, Lebanon Not for sale. © FES Jordan & Iraq / FES Syria All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reprinted, reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means without prior written permission from the publishers. The views and opinions expressed in this publication are solely those of the original authors. They do not necessarily represent those of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung or the editor. Translation: Dr. Hassan Barari Editing: Anja Wehler-Schoeck Cover: Ramzi al-Arabi Printing: Economic Printing Press ISBN: 978-9957-484-26-2 2 Foreword In the current fall of 2013, not a single day passes by without the crisis in Syria making new headlines. The international community has demonstrated indecision regarding concerted strategic action in the face of Bashar al-Assad’s brutal acts against the Syrian population. Meanwhile, the subsequent refugee crisis is heavily impacting Syria’s neighboring countries Jordan, Turkey, Lebanon and to a lesser extent Iraq. In the two latter, the political implications of what is turning more and more into a proxy war are felt the strongest and contribute to the increasing instability of both countries. -
Terrorism in Afghanistan: a Joint Threat Assessment
Terrorism in Afghanistan: A Joint Threat Assessment Terrorism in Afghanistan: A Joint Threat Assessment Introduction 7 Chapter I: Afghanistan’s Security Situation and Peace Process: Comparing U.S. and Russian Perspectives (Barnett R. Rubin) 9 Chapter II: Militant Terrorist Groups in, and Connected to, Afghanistan (Ekaterina Stepanova and Javid Ahmad) 24 Chapter III: Afghanistan in the Regional Security Interplay Context (Andrey Kazantsev and Thomas F. Lynch III) 41 Major Findings and Conclusions 67 Appendix A: Protecting Afghanistan’s Borders: U.S. and Russia to Lead in a Regional Counterterrorism Effort (George Gavrilis) 72 Appendix B: Arms Supplies for Afghan Militants and Terrorists (Vadim Kozyulin) 75 Appendix C: Terrorism Financing: Understanding Afghanistan’s Specifics (Konstantin Sorokin and Vladimir Ivanov) 79 Acronyms 83 Terrorism in Afghanistan Joint U.S.-Russia Working Group on Counterterrorism in Afghanistan Working Group Experts: Javid Ahmad1 Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council Sher Jan Ahmadzai Director, Center for Afghanistan Studies, University of Nebraska at Omaha Robert Finn Former Ambassador of the United States to Afghanistan George Gavrilis Fellow, Center for Democracy, Toleration, and Religion, University of California, Berkeley Andrey Kazantsev Director, Center for Central Asian and Afghan Studies, Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO University) Kirill Koktysh Associate Professor, Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO University) Member, Expert Council, State Duma Committee of Nationalities Mikhail Konarovsky Former Ambassador of the Russian Federation to Afghanistan Col. (Ret.) Oleg V. Kulakov* Professor of Area Studies, Military University, Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation Vadim Kozyulin Member, PIR Center Executive Board Researcher, Diplomatic Academy, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Thomas F.