C-Thesis What happens in the shadows? A quantitative analysis on the effect of shadows in baseball. Author: Ström, Martin Supervisor: Pojskic, Haris Examiner: Carlsson, Bo Term: VT21 Subject: Sports Science Level: Bachelor Course code: 2IV31E Abstract Baseball is one of the most statistically documented sports in the world. Every statistical outcome in baseball starts with the pitcher and the plate appearance. In baseball, it is believed that when shadows are present between the pitcher’s mound and the batter’s box, the pitcher is at an advantage. Therefore, the aim of the study was to identify if there is an advantage for pitchers pitching with shadows separating the pitcher’s mound from the batter’s box. Only games from Major League Baseball in which the shadows were present between the pitcher’s mound and batter’s box were analyzed. Analyzed variables were comprised of traditional statistical outcomes categorized as good or bad outcomes. Furthermore, good and bad outcomes were analyzed using their ordinal subcategories rated from 1 to 4. Differences between good and bad outcomes of plate appearances, when shadows were and were not present, was analyzed using a Mann-Whitney U Test. The results of the study indicate that shadows do not have a significant effect on the outcome of plate appearances. Moreover, pitchers do not have an advantage pitching while shadows are present between them and the batter’s box. Frequencies of outcomes with shadows present was much the same to outcomes without the shadows present. In conclusion, it does not appear that shadows influence the outcome of plate appearances. However, further research on statistical metrics and their effect on plate appearances is necessary. Key words Statistics; outcome; plate appearance; pitcher; batter; Acknowledgments To Haris, Whose unrelenting support is the only reason this was possible. I could not have asked for a better supervisor. Thank you. To my mom and dad, Who has always supported me, believed in me, and pushed me to go as far as possible. You introduced me to this beautiful game, and for that, I am forever grateful. I love you both. Table of contents 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Background 2 1.1.1 An introduction to statistics 2 1.2 Objective and research questions 4 1.2.1 Objective 4 1.2.2 Research questions 5 2 Previous research 6 2.1 General research on baseball statistics 6 2.2 Research on advantages 7 2.3 Research on the pitcher and batter subgame 7 2.4 Research on shadows in baseball 8 2.5 Summary of previous research 9 3 Method 10 3.1 Study design 10 3.2 Sampling of data 11 3.2.1 Alignment of Major League Ballparks 12 3.2.2 Angles of sunlight 13 3.3 Processing of data 14 3.3.1 Definition of good outcomes 15 3.3.2 Definition of bad outcomes 16 3.4 Analysis of data 17 3.5 Research ethics considerations 17 4 Results 18 5 Discussion 20 5.1 Discussion of results 20 5.2 Discussion of method 23 5.2.1 Discussion of variables 24 5.2.2 Discussion of sources 25 5.2.3 Delimitations and limitations 25 6 Conclusions 27 6.1 Implications for further research 28 7 References 30 8 Appendix 36 8.1 Appendix 1 – Result of Shapiro-Wilk Test for normality in sampled data 36 8.2 Appendix 2 - Result of Mann-Whitney U test for difference in rating of pitcher’s outcome variables 37 8.3 Appendix 3 - Result of Mann-Whitney U test for difference in good versus bad outcomes. 38 8.4 Appendix 4 - Result of Mann-Whitney U test for difference in rating between all good outcomes. 39 8.5 Appendix 5 - Result of Mann-Whitney U test for difference in rating between all bad outcomes. 40 Appendices Appendix 1 – Result of Shapiro-Wilk Test for normality in sampled data Appendix 2 - Result of Mann-Whitney U test for difference in rating of pitcher’s outcome variables Appendix 3 - Result of Mann-Whitney U test for difference in good versus bad outcomes. Appendix 4 - Result of Mann-Whitney U test for difference in rating between all good outcomes. Appendix 5 - Result of Mann-Whitney U test for difference in rating between all bad outcomes. 1 Introduction This section presents a background to baseball, as well as the objective and research questions of the study. Known as America’s national pastime, baseball has a long-standing historical and sociological connection to the country. Walt Whitman famously claimed that baseball fits as much into America’s constitutions and is as important to its total historical life, as any other institution in the country (Rader, 2008). It has shaped and been shaped by the collective minds of America since the first modern game in 1846, reaching every household and every heart of its citizens. It is and has always been, a mirror of society, thus portraying the joy and hardships of America in every way imaginable (Hoffmann et al., 2003). From Jackie Robinson breaking the color barrier to the 1919 Black Sox Scandal; to the steroid era of the early 2000s and the Cubs finally ending their curse, baseball has had its fair share of legends and drama (Rader, 2008). Although baseball is “America’s game” (Rader, 2008), it has not only crossed barriers domestically but internationally as well. During and after the Civil War, while the game spread across the states, it also reached the Caribbean and Central America in the 1860s. It reached China in 1863, while Japan and South Korea got their first taste of the sport in the early 1870s (Kelly, 2007). The international spread of the sport predates soccer but is severely outclassed in the number of global players and interest. It lacks both the attendance and recognition to compete with a sport such as soccer on the world stage, perhaps due to the nationalization of the sport as America’s pastime, rather than the world’s (Kelly, 2007). Baseball is played between two teams, each consisting of nine players, taking turns to play offense and defense. A game consists of nine innings and the winner is decided by whichever team has scored the most runs after said nine innings. To score runs, the offensive team’s batters attempt to hit the ball 1(40) thrown by the defensive team’s pitcher. If a player from the offensive team can hit the ball and safely make his way across all four bases, they score a run. The defense attempts to get the offense out by throwing, catching, tagging, or striking the offensive team’s players out. When the defensive team gets three outs, the teams swap sides and defense becomes offense and vice versa. When both teams have had their three outs playing defense, one inning has passed. The teams continue to swap between offense and defense for nine innings, or until a winner can be decided. If the teams are tied after nine innings, the game goes into extra innings and each team gets one more inning to try and score. If the teams are still tied after each extra inning, the game simply continues one inning at a time, until a winner is decided (Albert et al., 2005). Within the game, what is known as the pitcher and batter subgame becomes the starting point of any play and the only part of baseball where the two teams truly “face” each other (Alamar et al., 2006). Due to this, baseball is the most individual of all team sports (Kelly, 2007). Players on the same team only interact through throwing the ball to each other or helping each other along the bases through their batting. Because of its nature, statistical analysis has been a key part of the game since as early as the 19th century (Wikipedia, 2021a). Unlike any other sport, statistics guide managers, players, and fans alike. From broadcasts to stadiums, from the Hall of Fame to Little League, not a single part of baseball is unaffected by statistics. Between all aspects of the game, statistics are what truly made me fall in love with baseball, and it is on that love that this thesis is based. 1.1 Background 1.1.1 An introduction to statistics One fundamental aspect of baseball that separates it from many other sports is the sheer amount of numerical data recorded about the game. Unlike most 2(40) sports, the outcomes of the most common baseball event, a plate appearance, is easy to evaluate as there are not a great number of differentiating outcomes. The plate appearance is the start and finish of any game, where the batter steps up to the plate to face the pitcher. Almost the entirety of the game depends on the outcome of these plate appearances, thus making them highly relevant to analyze from a statistical standpoint. Furthermore, statistics in baseball are often used to decide the game’s best hitter or pitcher of a certain season as well as serving as a tool for salary arbitration and negotiating new contracts. The best hitter of a single season, for example, is decided by the amount of hits accumulated divided by the number of at-bats, or opportunities, the player had to get those hits. The result of this equation is the metric known as batting average. Similarly, the best pitcher is often decided by utilizing several metrics such as earned-run average, strikeouts, or wins. These examples are just the tip of the iceberg of baseball analysis and presently, most professional teams have hired analysts to provide statistical assistance to the team’s strategy during the season (Albert et al., 2005).