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Market Outlook April 24, 2020 Quant Thematic - Nifty: One of the biggest re-balancing likely • PRODUCT 1 • PRODUCT 2 Retail Equity Research Equity Retail – Research Analysts Raj Deepak Singh Amit Gupta Securities ICICI [email protected] [email protected] Nandish Patel Dipesh Dedhia [email protected] [email protected] Stocks likely to be excluded from Nifty Stocks likely to move out from Nifty As on 22nd Apr Expected till July 31 Stock Sector Avg Price Avg FCAP Avg Price Avg FCAP Bharti Infratel Telecom 197.96 16843 185 15740 Vedanta Ltd Metals 99.87 18191 95 17304 Zee Entertainment Media 190.74 17405 195 17793 Tata Motors Automobile 113.11 20266 100 17916 GAIL India Oil&Gas 96.27 17802 100 18492 * Average Free Float Market Cap In the above list, stocks with lowest free float market cap are shown. Maximum 10% of the index size (number of stocks in the index) may be changed in a calendar year. Hence in CY20, maximum of five stocks can be replaced from the pool of 50. In the first rebalancing of this year, already one stock Yes Bank was excluded. It was replaced with Shree Cement. Hence, there is room for further changes up to four stocks in the next announcement expected in September 2020. As per our analysis, the average free float market cap of highlighted stocks is likely to remain low. Hence, they are likely to be excluded. We believe at least three out of the above five stocks could be replaced in the next rebalancing. There may be Retail Equity Research Equity Retail four replacements if stocks from the replacement group remain resilient. – The combined weight of these four excluded stocks is likely to be nearly 1.5% in the Nifty. The likely average price has been arrived at considering the recent sharp decline in stocks along with expected recovery in the next couple of months. We have tried to consider the best possible cases for these stocks as per our view. Securities ICICI Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research April 24, 2020 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 2 Stocks likely to be included in Nifty Stocks likely to be included in Nifty As on 22nd April Expected till July 31 Stock Sector Avg Price Avg FCAP* Avg Price Avg FCAP* DMART Retail 2198 32747 2100 31288 Divis Lab Pharma 2087 26595 2150 27396 HDFC Life Insurance 512 29941 460 26923 Dabur FMCG 479 27073 470 26577 SBI Life Insurance 787 29124 670 24790 Pidilite FMCG 1484 22619 1450 22098 One of the criteria for inclusion in the Nifty is that security must have F&O contract. As of now, DMart is not part of F&O segment. If it does not get included in F&O, then it will not be added in the Nifty. In such a scenario, despite being the largest among the replacement pool, it will not be a part of the Nifty. In such a scenario, Divis Lab, HDFC Life, Dabur and SBI Life could be part of the Nifty. Hence, in case DMart remains without F&O contracts then these four stocks could be part of Nifty. The next close contender is Pidilite Industries, which could also be part albeit with a lower probability if it outperforms the rest in coming months. Retail Equity Research Equity Retail – In case DMart gets an F&O contract in the next couple of months, then along with it Divis Lab, HDFC Life should be part of the Nifty. Dabur and SBI Life are almost at par as per our calculation. Relative outperformance will be key. Combined weights of upcoming stocks is likely to be 2.9% in the Nifty against outgoing stocks weightage of just 1.5%. ICICI Securities Securities ICICI Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research April 24, 2020 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 3 Nifty: Expected rebalancing to change Nifty sectoral composition The Nifty has shed almost 40% in just two months from its January highs amid global weakness. The sharp decline is more profound in stocks with a few of them having fallen more than 50%. We believe the upcoming Nifty review in September will be the biggest reshuffle seen in recent history. Perhaps we may see a change of four stocks in the upcoming review. The whole exercise is a bit interesting considering three months are still left before any announcement will be made regarding inclusion and exclusion from the index. However, considering the significant declines in some of the index stocks, we believe there will be some definite changes in the upcoming review. Sector No of Stocks Cumulative Current weighatge No of Stocks Cumulative weighatge Banking 6 25.53 6 24.94 Technology 5 13.96 5 13.65 Oil&Gas 5 13.10 5 13.64 FMCG 4 11.14 5 11.81 NBFC 3 9.95 3 9.62 Automobile 6 4.93 5 4.53 Pharma 3 3.47 4 4.06 Telecom 2 3.36 1 3.13 Consumption 2 3.12 2 2.89 Infra 1 2.87 1 2.71 Metals 5 2.55 4 2.42 Research Equity Retail – Power 2 2.38 2 2.29 Cement 3 2.26 3 2.20 Others 2 1.06 4 2.11 Media 1 0.32 0 0.00 ICICI Securities Securities ICICI Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research April 24, 2020 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 4 Appendix: Nifty changes in last decade Historical Changes in Nifty Index Date Stock Description Date Stock Description Date Stock Description Mar-11 Grasim Industries Ltd. Inclusion into Index Mar-15 DLF Ltd. Exclusion from Index Sep-17 Tata Power Co. Ltd. Exclusion from Index Mar-11 Suzlon Energy Ltd. Exclusion from Index Mar-15 Jindal Steel & Power Ltd. Exclusion from Index Sep-17 Bajaj Finance Ltd. Inclusion into Index Oct-11 Coal India Ltd. Inclusion into Index Mar-15 Idea Cellular Ltd. Inclusion into Index Sep-17 Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd. Inclusion into Index Oct-11 Reliance Capital Ltd. Exclusion from Index Mar-15 Yes Bank Ltd. Inclusion into Index Sep-17 UPL Ltd. Inclusion into Index Apr-12 Asian Paints Ltd. Inclusion into Index May-15 IDFC Ltd Exclusion from Index Apr-18 Ambuja Cements Ltd. Exclusion from Index Apr-12 Bank of Baroda Inclusion into Index May-15 Bosch Ltd. Inclusion into Index Apr-18 Aurobindo Pharma Ltd. Exclusion from Index Apr-12 Reliance Communications Ltd. Exclusion from Index Sep-15 NMDC Ltd. Exclusion from Index Apr-18 Bosch Ltd. Exclusion from Index Apr-12 Reliance Power Ltd. Exclusion from Index Sep-15 Adani Ports Inclusion into Index Apr-18 Bajaj Finserv Ltd. Inclusion into Index Sep-12 Lupin Ltd. Inclusion into Index Apr-16 Cairn India Ltd. Exclusion from Index Apr-18 Grasim Industries Ltd. Inclusion into Index Sep-12 UltraTech Cement Ltd. Inclusion into Index Apr-16 Punjab National Bank Exclusion from Index Apr-18 Titan Company Ltd. Inclusion into Index Sep-12 Steel Authority of India Ltd. Exclusion from Index Apr-16 Vedanta Ltd. Exclusion from Index Sep-18 Lupin Ltd. Exclusion from Index Sep-12 Sterlite Industries (India) Ltd. Exclusion from Index Apr-16 Aurobindo Pharma Ltd. Inclusion into Index Sep-18 JSW Steel Ltd. Inclusion into Index Apr-13 IndusInd Bank Ltd. Inclusion into Index Apr-16 Bharti Infratel Ltd. Inclusion into Index Mar-19 Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd. Exclusion from Index Apr-13 NMDC Ltd. Inclusion into Index Apr-16 Eicher Motors Ltd. Inclusion into Index Mar-19 Britannia Inclusion into Index Apr-13 Siemens Ltd. Exclusion from Index Apr-16 Tata Motors Ltd DVR Inclusion into Index Sep-19 Indiabulls Housing Finance Ltd. Exclusion from Index Apr-13 Wipro Ltd. Exclusion from Index Mar-17 Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd. Exclusion from Index Sep-19 Nestle India Inclusion into Index Sep-13 Wipro Ltd. Inclusion into Index Mar-17 Idea Cellular Ltd. Exclusion from Index Mar-20 Yes Bank Ltd. Exclusion from Index Sep-13 Reliance Infrastructure Ltd. Exclusion from Index Mar-17 Indiabulls Housing Finance Ltd. Inclusion into Index Mar-20 Shree Cement Inclusion into Index Retail Equity Research Equity Retail Mar-14 Jaiprakash Associates Ltd. Exclusion from Index Mar-17 Indian Oil Corporation Ltd. Inclusion into Index – Mar-14 Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd. Exclusion from Index May-17 Grasim Industries Ltd. Exclusion from Index Mar-14 Tech Mahindra Ltd. Inclusion into Index May-17 Vedanta Ltd. Inclusion into Index Mar-14 United Spirits Ltd. Inclusion into Index Sep-17 ACC Ltd. Exclusion from Index Sep-14 United Spirits Ltd. Exclusion from Index Sep-17 Bank of Baroda Exclusion from Index Sep-14 Zee Entertainment Enterprises Ltd. Inclusion into Index Sep-17 Tata Motors Ltd DVR Exclusion from Index Securities ICICI Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research April 24, 2020 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 5 Pankaj Pandey Head – Research [email protected] ICICI Direct Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road no.7, MIDC Andheri (East) Mumbai – 400 093 [email protected] Retail Equity Research Equity Retail – ICICI Securities Securities ICICI Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research April 24, 2020 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 6 Disclaimer We /I, Amit Gupta B.E, MBA (Finance), Raj Deepak Singh BE, MBA (Finance), Nandish Patel BCOM, Dipesh Dedhia BCOM, MBA (Finance), Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.
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