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Real Estate Monitor 3/2017 3/2017 REAL ESTATE MONITOR Magazine of the Association of European Businesses CAPITAL · OFFICE · RETAIL · WAREHOUSE · HOSPITALITY · HOUSING Contents Contents Introduction Letter from the Chief Executive Officer 01 Letter from the Chairman of the AEB Real Estate Committee 02 Moscow market overview Capital market 03 Retail market 05 Office market 08 Warehouse market 11 Hospitality market 16 Housing market 21 St. Petersburg market overview Office market 28 Retail market 29 Street retail market 30 Warehouse market 31 Hot Topics Cloud services: new business models for VAC system manufacturers 32 Unjustified tax benefit in real estate – what is on the tax authorities’ agenda? 34 Lease termination: is the courts’ approach likely to change? 36 Current trends on the housing market 38 Publication name/ Published by/Учредитель: Chief Editor/ Release date/Дата выхода: Publisher’s address/ Наименование издания: Non-profit making partnership Главный редактор: 22 September 2017/ Адрес издателя, редакции: AEB Real Estate Monitor “Association of European Y.S. Melnikova/Мельникова Ю.С. 22 сентября 2017 года 16, bld. 3, Krasnoproletarskaya (“АССОЦИАЦИЯ Businesses”/Некоммерческое Publication volume and Cost/Цена: Distributed free str., 127473, Moscow, ЕВРОПЕЙСКОГО БИЗНЕСА: партнерство “АССОЦИАЦИЯ number/Номер выпуска: of charge/Бесплатно Russia/ Россия, Обозрение рынка ЕВРОПЕЙСКОГО БИЗНЕСА” 03, 2017 127473, г. Москва, ул. недвижимости”) Краснопролетарская, д. 16, стр. 3 The “AEB Real Estate Monitor” is registered with The Federal Service for Свидетельство о регистрации ПИ № ФС77-24458 от 23 мая 2006 Supervision of Legislation in Mass Communications and Protection of Cultural The opinions and comments expressed here are those of the authors and do Heritage, Certificate registration ПИ № ФС77-24458/ СМИ “АССОЦИАЦИЯ not necessarily reflect those of the Non-profit making partnership “Association ЕВРОПЕЙСКОГО БИЗНЕСА: Обозрение рынка недвижимости” зарегистрировано of European Businesses”/Мнения/комментарии авторов могут не совпадать в Федеральной службе по надзору за соблюдением законодательства с мнениями/комментариями учредителя публикации, Некоммерческого в сфере массовых коммуникаций и охране культурного наследия. партнерства “АССОЦИАЦИЯ ЕВРОПЕЙСКОГО БИЗНЕСА” AEB Real Estate Monitor | 3/2017 Dear readers, It is my genuine pleasure to welcome you to the third edition of the AEB Real Estate Monitor in 2017! I hope you had a wonderful summer time and are going to start a new business season with fresh and bright impressions. Frank Schauff This issue will traditionally provide the overview of the Moscow and St. Petersburg Chief Executive Officer, real estate markets. In particular, the edition comprises data on retail, office and Association of European warehouse markets in terms of overall investment activity, completion level, and Businesses vacancy rate dynamics in the second quarter of 2017. As always, a separate section reviews Moscow hospitality sector from the perspective of average daily rates and occupancy indicators. Figures on the number of the hotels opened in the first half of 2017 and announced for opening by the end of the year are also specified. Supply and demand trends of the Moscow prime rental market are analysed based on various criteria including rental budget rates and the most popular areas. The hot topics, as usually, deal with the most acute and in many cases widely discussed issues referring to the real estate. There is a general article about the current trends on the housing market; a specific article on cloud services for ventilation and air conditioning system manufacturers; and two more juridical-related topics concerning the ‘unjustified tax benefit’ concept, and the courts’ approach to lease termination. I would like to express my sincere gratitude to the members of the AEB Real Estate Committee for their substantial contribution to the present publication and other activities. A new business season has just started and I hope to meet you at the upcoming AEB Real Estate Committee events. Enjoy your reading! AEB Real Estate Monitor | 3/2017 1 AEB Real Estate Monitor | 3/2017 Introduction Russia real estate investment market | Q2 2017 Dear readers, Russia real estate We are back to business after summer holidays and looking with a fresh mind on the development in the real estate sector. investment market So far the new normal seems to get hold of the market and it continues to evolve with • Supported by stable currency and the recovery of the Russian economy, investor ac on the real estate market improves, the number of investment deals the same dynamics that we have seen before. increases. • The H1 2017 investment volume on real estate market increased by 39% YoY to USD2.2bn. • In H1 2017, retail was the most ac e sector, accoun for 41% of the total volume. The office sector followed, with 32% of all transac ons. In Q2, the largest deal Filippo Baldisserotto Even if the residential construction has dropped 10,4% in the period of January-July was the sale of Vozdvizhenka Centre to Fosun Group and Avica Management Company. Chairman of the AEB Real 2017, the overall figure of construction works for the same period is slightly over 100%. • Moscow remained the most c e for investors in Russia in H1 2017, with a 73% share of the total volume. The share of St. Petersburg grew to 18%. Estate Committee, • In H1 2017, foreign investors increased their share to 21%. General Director, The preparation for the AEB Real Estate Day scheduled for 27 September 2017 is in • Benchmark prime yields remained unchanged between 9.0-10.5% for Moscow offices and shopping centres and 11.0-12.5% for warehouses. Stupino 1 Industrial Park full swing and we invite all interested parties to contribute to this event to make it • We expect the po e investment momentum to extend into the near future. We forecast the investment volume to reach USD4.5bn in 2017. informative. Thank you all and looking forward to seeing you at the upcoming Real Estate Committee meetings and other events. Russia real GDP growth Sovereign bond yields 9% 9% 6% 7% 3% 5% 0% 3% -3% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 1% -6% . 2016 . 2017 . 2015 . 2016 . 2017 -9% . 2015 . 2016 Jun. 2014 Oct. 2014 Feb. 2015 Jun Oct Feb Jun Oct Feb Jun Russia 23 10 Year U.S. Treasury Source: Rosstat, Oxford Economics Source: Bloomberg, US Treasury Exchange rate dynamics, USD/RUB 90 80 70 60 50 40 Oct. 2015 Oct. 2016 Apr. 2017 Apr. 2016 Jun. 2017 Jun. 2015 Jun. 2016 Feb. 2016 Feb. 2017 Dec. 2015 Dec. 2016 2 AEB Real Estate Monitor | 3/2017 Aug. 2015 Aug. 2016 Source: Central Bank of Russia Moscow market overview | Capital market AEB Real Estate Monitor | 3/2017 Russia real estate investment market | Q2 2017 Russia real estate investment market | Q2 2017 Russia real estate RussiaMoscow real estate investment marketmarket | Q2 2017 overview invRuesstsimae renatl mesatartkee t RuCapitalssi market,a re aQ2l e2017state • Supporteid bny stabvle cuerrencsy antd them recovery ofn the Rtussi anm economay, inrvesktor aec t on the real estate market improves, the number of investment deals increases. • •S uSupportedpported by sta bbyle c uarr establency and tcurrencyhe recovery oandf the Rtheussi arecoveryn economy, iofnve sthetor a c • oMoscown the real e staremainedte market i mtheprov emosts, the n uattractivember of inve stformen tinvestors deals in • The H1 2017 investment volume on real estate market increased by 39% YoY to USD2.2bn. iRussianinncreasevs. economy,est investorm eactivityn ont them real aestater kmare- tRussia in H1 2017, with a 73% share of the total volume. • In H1 2017• T,h ree Htai1 l201 wa7s itnhvee smtmoestn ta vcolumee se ocnto rre,a al ccoestautne mar kfeotr i4nc1r%ea osef dthe by t3o9ta% lYoY vol umto USD2.2e. Theb onffi. ce sector followed, with 32% of all transac ons. In Q2, the largest deal was the •saketSluep op fo improves,Vrtoezdd bvyiz shtaebnlke a cwith uCerrenntr ceythe aton dF otnumberhesu nrec Gorvoeurpy oofafn t dhinvestment eA Rvussiica Mana econonageme mdealsy,n int vCome stinopr- aanc y. The on tsharehe real e ofsta tSt.e m arPetersburgket improves, tgrewhe num btoer 18%.of inves tment deals • iInnc Hre1a 2017ses. , retail was the most ac e sector, accoun for 41% of the total volume. The office sector followed, with 32% of all transac ons. In Q2, the largest deal creasing. • In H1 2017, foreign investors increased their share to • Moscow• rTewahmes a Htihen1 ed201 sa tleh7 eoin fm vVeosztsmdt veiznhte vnocklumea Cee fn otrnr e irn etvoae lF seotstasourntse Gi nmr oRaruukpssie atn aind ic nAr evHaic1sae 2017 dM bayn a3, g9wieme%t YoYh nat 7tComo3 %USD2.2 pshanayr.eb no.f the total volume. The share of St. Petersburg grew to 18%. • In H1 2017•• •IMn, HofInos1cr e o2017iwH1g nre ,i mnr2017,evataieinsedtl owar ts hs i investmententh mcer oemsatos setd a tchceei re svolumes efhocart oriner,v taeoccos t2o 1ruons%n in. Rrealu fssiora 4 iestate1n% H 1o f2017 the markett,o witatlh v oal um73 %e .s Theh21%.are o offif cet h es etocttaorl vfollluomwe.d T, hwite shh 3a2re% o of fSt al. lP treatenrssabcurogn gsr. eInw Q to2 ,1 t8he% .lar gest deal was the sale of Vozdvizhenka Centre to Fosun Group and Avica Management Company. • • increasedIn H1 2017, fo byreig n39% inves toYoYrs in ctorea sUSDed the 2.2ir sha billion.re to 21%. • Benchmark prime yields remained unchanged between Benchm•arMk opsrcimeow ryeimeladisn edrem thaei nmedos tu nchanc gede fo br eintvweesteonr s9. in0 R-10.ussi5a% in f oHr1 M2017osc,o wiwt ho ffia 7c3e%s ashnadr esh oof pthpein tgo tacel nvotrluems ea.n Tdh 11.e sh0a-r12e o.5f St%. fPoert waersbreuhrgo gurseews .to 18%. • Benchmark prime yields remained unchanged between 9.0-10.5% for Moscow offices and shopping centres and 11.0-12.5% for warehouses.
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