Opposition Analysis in Major League Lacrosse
Jesse McNulty Director of Analytics Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club Major League Lacrosse (MLL) Overview
● Where did this all start? And why?
● Opposition Analysis (open up “Pandora’s Box”)
● Moving forward...
● Q&A
Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club 2017 Introduction
● Engineering training, transitioned into public education ○ William Penn H.S. Dept. of Mathematics - 2007 to present
● Started in Sports Analytics in 2010: ○ UD Men’s Ice Hockey (ACHA D1) - Asst. Coach ○ Baie-Comeau Drakkar / Chicoutimi Sagueneens (QMJHL) ○ 2015 WJC - Team Switzerland
● Director of Analytics - Atlanta Blaze (Jan. 2016 to present)
Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club 2017 Limitations of Data
● Very limited in scope
● Little impact on game outcome
● Inaccurate... ○ 2016 week 1 - TO’s ■ 4 games (4 total TO’s)
Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club 2017 Opposition Analysis Using Data
● Virtually all Opposition Analysis uses data
● Recorded data offer completeness and (some) objectivity
● Want to look at many situations over seasons
● “Pandora’s Box” vs Florida Launch (2017 - Week 11 - 7/1/2017) ○ Focus: Off / Def / Goaltending Tactics ○ Primary: Pre-scouting and Opposition Analysis ○ Time frame: 3-5 days prior to game ○ Audience: Team staff, front office, and players
Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club 2017 Questions for Discovery
● Style - Offense / Defense
● Strengths? Where? Who?
● Weaknesses? Where? Who?
● Gamechangers?
● Opportunities for disruption?
Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club 2017 Overview ● Opposition Analysis Contents: ○ MLL League Information ○ Offense ○ Goaltending ○ Defense ○ Video Analysis / Staff suggestions
Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club 2017 Opposition Analysis:
Major League Lacrosse League Data (2017 MLL Regular Season)
Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club 2017 Offensive Efficiency (thru week 10)
Team Points Per 45 Possessions Unassisted G Unassisted Sh. % Assisted G Assisted Sh. % 2-point G 2-point Sh. %
Denver Outlaws 14.56 54 24.32 56 32.37 2 6.25
Charlotte Hounds 14.38 61 24.70 74 33.48 5 17.24
Chesapeake Bayhawks 14.08 49 27.53 64 35.56 4 19.05
Ohio Machine 13.92 41 21.58 83 37.39 1 5.00
Atlanta Blaze 13.86 36 23.08 67 35.64 2 11.11
Boston Cannons 13.85 49 25.13 73 32.44 6 11.76
MLL Average 13.65 458 25.30 566 32.81 27 10.34
Florida Launch 12.92 69 28.75 41 27.70 3 9.38
New York Lizards 12.84 40 21.51 58 30.05 2 5.26
Rochester Rattlers 12.39 59 30.10 50 28.57 2 10.00
Courtesy of moneyballlacrosse.com (Joe Keegan et al)
Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club 2017 Offensive Efficiency (by Scenario)
Team Dodge Two-man Fast Break X Top Wings
Florida Launch 15.69 10.98 20.09 14.40 13.97 17.31
Denver Outlaws 15.00 17.03 21.95 9.84 17.10 19.15
Atlanta Blaze 14.79 16.20 17.23 15.63 16.36 10.86
Ohio Machine 14.38 18.00 15.52 15.00 13.50 17.83
Rochester Rattlers 14.10 15.58 12.66 14.87 13.40 15.00
MLL Average 14.05 16.00 18.52 14.02 14.11 15.78
Boston Cannons 13.95 14.69 18.21 14.74 13.15 15.00
Charlotte Hounds 13.79 18.64 23.45 15.16 15.33 14.79
Chesapeake Bayhawks 13.53 18.95 19.18 15.00 13.04 19.29
New York Lizards 10.96 13.03 16.13 9.78 10.91 13.73
Courtesy of moneyballlacrosse.com (Joe Keegan et al)
Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club 2017 Defensive Efficiency (thru week 10)
Team Points Per 45 Possessions Unassisted G Unassisted Sh. % Assisted G Assisted Sh. %
Ohio Machine 10.90 50 27.17 48 27.59
Denver Outlaws 12.84 35 20.11 53 29.28
Rochester Rattlers 12.92 57 26.51 55 31.07
Charlotte Hounds 13.59 50 23.15 80 39.02
MLL Average 13.65 458 25.30 566 32.81
Florida Launch 13.71 56 26.05 69 28.75
New York Lizards 14.44 55 24.77 53 28.34
Boston Cannons 14.63 56 24.78 72 37.89
Chesapeake Bayhawks 14.96 48 27.43 76 39.18
Atlanta Blaze 15.22 51 27.87 60 33.90
Courtesy of moneyballlacrosse.com (Joe Keegan et al)
Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club 2017 Defensive Efficiency (by Scenario)
Team Dodge Two-man Fast Break X Top Wings
Ohio Machine 10.84 17.61 15.00 13.01 9.95 14.49
Florida Launch 11.97 16.17 21.39 11.93 14.21 12.97
Rochester Rattlers 12.05 15.47 18.15 12.09 12.86 12.86
Charlotte Hounds 13.62 18.68 19.17 14.42 12.97 18.90
MLL Average 14.05 16.00 18.52 14.02 14.11 15.78
Denver Outlaws 14.35 12.86 13.42 12.39 11.57 19.17
Chesapeake Bayhawks 14.59 17.37 22.87 15.60 14.64 16.28
New York Lizards 15.54 14.63 21.67 13.33 18.53 13.17
Boston Cannons 16.53 17.03 16.88 15.39 16.13 18.90
Atlanta Blaze 18.00 14.12 17.65 18.41 16.42 16.07
Courtesy of moneyballlacrosse.com (Joe Keegan et al)
Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club 2017 Clearing/Riding (thru week 10)
Team TO% Opponent TO% Clear % Ride %
Atlanta Blaze 28.63 26.38 95.91 3.83
Boston Cannons 29.05 27.53 95.27 7.69
Charlotte Hounds 28.66 28.28 95.35 5.75
Chesapeake Bayhawks 31.15 30.51 95.43 7.30
Denver Outlaws 23.60 27.40 95.18 3.65
Florida Launch 28.94 24.17 92.94 6.02
MLL Average 28.50 28.50 94.51 5.49
New York Lizards 26.26 24.54 93.75 3.54
Ohio Machine 28.84 37.74 93.74 6.85
Rochester Rattlers 31.04 29.62 93.01 4.22
Courtesy of moneyballlacrosse.com (Joe Keegan et al)
Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club 2017 Team Rebounding Percentages
Team Offensive Rebounding % Defensive Rebounding %
Charlotte Hounds 29.46 84.93
New York Lizards 28.17 66.67
Denver Outlaws 26.12 77.59
Ohio Machine 25.87 73.11
Chesapeake Bayhawks 25.64 66.02
MLL Average 24.66 75.34
Boston Cannons 23.44 73.53
Florida Launch 22.05 78.77
Atlanta Blaze 21.74 76.19
Rochester Rattlers 18.40 77.17
Courtesy of moneyballlacrosse.com (Joe Keegan et al)
Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club 2017 Opposition Analysis:
Team-Specific (FLA) Data (2017 MLL Regular Season)
Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club 2017 Off. Player Contributions (thru week 10)
Player PPG Points G Unassisted G Assisted G A 2-pt G GP
Chazz Woodson 2.67 25 17 10 7 8 0 9
Kieran McArdle 4.60 24 18 10 8 6 0 5
Connor Buczek 2.50 20 15 13 2 3 2 8
Dylan Molloy 3.67 11 8 6 2 3 0 3
Jimmy Dailey 2.20 11 7 4 3 4 0 5
Ryan Drenner 2.67 8 4 3 1 4 0 3
Steve Pontrello 2.00 8 7 1 6 1 0 4
Steven Brooks 0.78 7 5 1 4 1 1 9
Sergio Salcido 1.25 5 2 1 1 3 0 4
Tim Edwards 0.83 5 3 1 2 2 0 6
Courtesy of moneyballlacrosse.com (Joe Keegan et al)
Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club 2017 Catch-And-Shoot Scenarios (thru week 10)
Player Assisted G Assisted Shots Assisted Sh. %
Kieran McArdle 8 18 44.44
Chazz Woodson 7 15 46.67
Steve Pontrello 6 15 40.00
Steven Brooks 4 17 23.53
Jimmy Dailey 3 10 30.00
Connor Buczek 2 17 11.76
Greg Melaugh 2 10 20.00
Dylan Molloy 2 7 28.57
Nick Mariano 2 6 33.33
Tim Edwards 2 3 66.67
Courtesy of moneyballlacrosse.com (Joe Keegan et al)
Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club 2017 Dodge-And-Shoot Scenarios (thru week 10)
Player Unassisted G Unassisted Shots Unassisted Sh. %
Connor Buczek 13 43 30.23
Chazz Woodson 10 27 37.04
Kieran McArdle 10 31 32.26
Dylan Molloy 6 17 35.29
Greg Melaugh 3 15 20.00
Martin Bowes 3 6 50.00
Jimmy Dailey 3 7 42.86
Jovan Miller 3 6 50.00
Ryan Drenner 3 6 50.00
Reagan Harding 2 9 22.22
Courtesy of moneyballlacrosse.com (Joe Keegan et al)
Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club 2017 Assist to TO Ratios (thru week 10)
Player A AO TO A-to-TO
Chazz Woodson 8 20 16 0.50
Kieran McArdle 6 21 14 0.43
Ryan Drenner 4 8 1 4.00
Connor Buczek 3 24 18 0.17
Dylan Molloy 3 6 5 0.60
Sergio Salcido 3 3 7 0.43
James Dailey 2 3 1 2.00
Sean Meagher 2 4 0 0.00
Jimmy Dailey 2 7 7 0.29
Tim Edwards 2 4 1 2.00
Courtesy of moneyballlacrosse.com (Joe Keegan et al)
Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club 2017 Two-Point Sh% (thru week 10)
Player 2-point G 2-point Shots 2-point Sh. %
Connor Buczek 2 15 13.33
Steven Brooks 1 7 14.29
Mark McNeill 0 2 0.00
PT Ricci 0 1 0.00
Reagan Harding 0 1 0.00
Steve Pontrello 0 2 0.00
Kieran McArdle 0 2 0.00
Sergio Salcido 0 1 0.00
Jarrod Neumann 0 1 0.00
Courtesy of moneyballlacrosse.com (Joe Keegan et al)
Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club 2017 Fast Break Points (thru week 10)
Player Points G Shots Sh. % 2-pt G A TO
Chazz Woodson 6 5 10 50.00 0 1 1
Kieran McArdle 4 3 4 75.00 0 1 1
Will Gural 3 2 9 22.22 0 1 1
Mike Unterstein 3 2 5 40.00 0 1 0
Dylan Molloy 2 2 2 100.00 0 0 0
Sean Meagher 2 0 0 0.00 0 2 0
Alec Tulett 1 1 3 33.33 0 0 0
Jovan Miller 1 1 3 33.33 0 0 1
Steve Pontrello 1 1 5 20.00 0 0 1
Martin Bowes 1 1 1 100.00 0 0 0
Courtesy of moneyballlacrosse.com (Joe Keegan et al)
Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club 2017 Defensive Statistics (thru week 10)
Player Run Outs Rebounds CT
Sean Meagher 0 2 6
PT Ricci 0 6 5
Tucker Durkin 0 6 5
Alec Tulett 1 2 5
Mark McNeill 1 10 4
Steven Brooks 0 0 3
Tim Edwards 0 0 3
Jason Crane 1 7 3
Liam Byrnes 0 3 3
Mike Unterstein 0 3 3
Courtesy of moneyballlacrosse.com (Joe Keegan et al)
Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club 2017 Opposition Analysis - Shots Created 330 total shot attempts in ‘17 season
Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club 2017 Primary Assist to Shot Creation
Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club 2017 Opposition Analysis:
2017 Florida Launch Shots
Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club 2017 ● Total Shots Tracked: 13,638 Shooting Chart ● 2015 season to present (thru week 11) ● 40 variables for each shot attempt
Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club 2017 Shooting Chart - Density Chart - All Shot Attempts
Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club 2017 Shooting Chart - Offensive Shot Selection
Goal Created and Messy Saves Clean Saves and Off Net
Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club 2017 Shooting Chart - Player-Specific Analysis - McArdle
= Action rate (>50%)
McArdle (2017 Density) McArdle (2017 Efficiency)
Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club 2017 Shooting Chart - Player-Specific Analysis - Woodson
= Action rate (>50%)
Woodson (2017 Density) Woodson (2017 Efficiency)
Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club 2017 Shooting Chart - Player-Specific Analysis - Buczek
= Action rate (>50%)
Buczek (2017 Density) Buczek (2017 Efficiency)
Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club 2017 Shooting Chart - Player-Specific Analysis - Brooks
= Action rate (>50%)
Brooks (2017 Density) Brooks (2017 Efficiency)
Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club 2017 Shooting Chart - Player-Specific Analysis - Molloy
= Action rate (>50%)
Molloy (2017 Density) Molloy (2017 Efficiency)
Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club 2017 Shooting Chart - Player-Specific Analysis - Drenner
= Action rate (>50%)
Drenner (2017 Density)
Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club 2017 Shooting Chart - Player-Specific Analysis - Salcido
= Action rate (>50%)
Salcido (2017 Density)
Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club 2017 Shooting Chart - Player-Specific Analysis - Mariano
= Action rate (>50%)
Mariano (2017 Density)
Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club 2017 Opposition Analysis:
Goaltending
Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club 2017 Goaltender - Austin Kaut
● Total SH Attempts in ‘17 (thru week 7): 344 ● Shot Type: ○ 1-pointer: 316 total attempts ○ 2-pointer: 28 total attempts ● Goalie Analytics: ○ Unassisted SV% - 59.85% ○ Assisted SV% - 59.01% ○ Clean Save % - 33.33% ○ Off. Efficiency After Save - 25.21% ● Stats: ○ .594 SV% (1st in MLL) ○ 13.41 GAA (7th in MLL) ○ 9 GP ○ 5 wins, 4 losses
Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club 2017 Austin Kaut - Density Map - All Shot Attempts
Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club 2017 Shooting Chart - Kaut - Shot on Goal Results
(Strong opportunities for attack from X / GLE)
Goal Created Clean Save
Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club 2017 Opposition Analysis:
Defense
Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club 2017 Density Map - All Shot Attempts against FLA
Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club 2017 Shots on Goal (Defense Analysis)
Goal or Messy Saves Created On Florida Defense
Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club 2017 Limitations at Present
● Manual Player Tracking ○ No SportVU or computer vision capability at present ● Access ○ Limited ■ League statistics, video, etc. ■ Limited player careers / large annual roster turnover ■ Limited collaboration on “grassroots” stats in the game ● Keegan, Malboussin, Piette, Feldman, etc.
Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club 2017 Version 2.0 - Passing Networks / Graph Theory
Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club 2017 Version 2.0 - Passing Networks / Graph Theory
Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club 2017 Version 2.0 - Partnerships / Experiential Learning
● Professional / Faculty: ○ Mr. Christopher Long (Vorpala, LLC.) ○ Dr. Tyler Bosch (Univ. of Minnesota) ○ Mr. Walt DeGrange and Mr. Harrison Schramm (CANA Advisors, Inc.)
● Student Contributors: ○ Gabrielle Brewer, Katie Bisch, Bryce Murphy, Anton Hesse, Christopher Bowen, Shyamlee Nanda, Justin Thompson (University of Minnesota) ○ Connor Sampson and Taylor Ferebee (Roanoke College) ○ Christian Klipstein (Bucknell University) ○ Connor Kipke (Furman University) ○ Lucas Wiebenga (Central College) ○ Tyler Schanzenbach (William Penn HS)
Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club 2017 Version 2.0 (Cont’d):
● Score and score-type (1pt / 2-pt) probabilities ● Plus/Minus Models in Lacrosse - presently no TOF consideration ● Faceoff win % and overall team win % (Over or under-valued?) ● Entry Draft Considerations (Predictive Models) ● Offensive Tactics ○ Ex: The Golden State Warriors theory (2-pt shot heavy strategy) ● Player Tracking and Health Diagnostics (Wearables) ● Developing work in ML - Computer Vision and Motion Trajectory Analysis ● Goaltender and Primary Defender Contribution (LME) ● Expected PPSh vs. Actual PPSh
Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club 2017 Thank you!
Questions?
Twitter: @JesseMcNulty Email: [email protected]