Opposition Analysis in Major League Lacrosse Jesse McNulty Director of Analytics Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club Major League Lacrosse (MLL) Overview ● Where did this all start? And why? ● Opposition Analysis (open up “Pandora’s Box”) ● Moving forward... ● Q&A Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club 2017 Introduction ● Engineering training, transitioned into public education ○ William Penn H.S. Dept. of Mathematics - 2007 to present ● Started in Sports Analytics in 2010: ○ UD Men’s Ice Hockey (ACHA D1) - Asst. Coach ○ Baie-Comeau Drakkar / Chicoutimi Sagueneens (QMJHL) ○ 2015 WJC - Team Switzerland ● Director of Analytics - Atlanta Blaze (Jan. 2016 to present) Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club 2017 Limitations of Data ● Very limited in scope ● Little impact on game outcome ● Inaccurate... ○ 2016 week 1 - TO’s ■ 4 games (4 total TO’s) Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club 2017 Opposition Analysis Using Data ● Virtually all Opposition Analysis uses data ● Recorded data offer completeness and (some) objectivity ● Want to look at many situations over seasons ● “Pandora’s Box” vs Florida Launch (2017 - Week 11 - 7/1/2017) ○ Focus: Off / Def / Goaltending Tactics ○ Primary: Pre-scouting and Opposition Analysis ○ Time frame: 3-5 days prior to game ○ Audience: Team staff, front office, and players Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club 2017 Questions for Discovery ● Style - Offense / Defense ● Strengths? Where? Who? ● Weaknesses? Where? Who? ● Gamechangers? ● Opportunities for disruption? Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club 2017 Overview ● Opposition Analysis Contents: ○ MLL League Information ○ Offense ○ Goaltending ○ Defense ○ Video Analysis / Staff suggestions Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club 2017 Opposition Analysis: Major League Lacrosse League Data (2017 MLL Regular Season) Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club 2017 Offensive Efficiency (thru week 10) Team Points Per 45 Possessions Unassisted G Unassisted Sh. % Assisted G Assisted Sh. % 2-point G 2-point Sh. % Denver Outlaws 14.56 54 24.32 56 32.37 2 6.25 Charlotte Hounds 14.38 61 24.70 74 33.48 5 17.24 Chesapeake Bayhawks 14.08 49 27.53 64 35.56 4 19.05 Ohio Machine 13.92 41 21.58 83 37.39 1 5.00 Atlanta Blaze 13.86 36 23.08 67 35.64 2 11.11 Boston Cannons 13.85 49 25.13 73 32.44 6 11.76 MLL Average 13.65 458 25.30 566 32.81 27 10.34 Florida Launch 12.92 69 28.75 41 27.70 3 9.38 New York Lizards 12.84 40 21.51 58 30.05 2 5.26 Rochester Rattlers 12.39 59 30.10 50 28.57 2 10.00 Courtesy of moneyballlacrosse.com (Joe Keegan et al) Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club 2017 Offensive Efficiency (by Scenario) Team Dodge Two-man Fast Break X Top Wings Florida Launch 15.69 10.98 20.09 14.40 13.97 17.31 Denver Outlaws 15.00 17.03 21.95 9.84 17.10 19.15 Atlanta Blaze 14.79 16.20 17.23 15.63 16.36 10.86 Ohio Machine 14.38 18.00 15.52 15.00 13.50 17.83 Rochester Rattlers 14.10 15.58 12.66 14.87 13.40 15.00 MLL Average 14.05 16.00 18.52 14.02 14.11 15.78 Boston Cannons 13.95 14.69 18.21 14.74 13.15 15.00 Charlotte Hounds 13.79 18.64 23.45 15.16 15.33 14.79 Chesapeake Bayhawks 13.53 18.95 19.18 15.00 13.04 19.29 New York Lizards 10.96 13.03 16.13 9.78 10.91 13.73 Courtesy of moneyballlacrosse.com (Joe Keegan et al) Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club 2017 Defensive Efficiency (thru week 10) Team Points Per 45 Possessions Unassisted G Unassisted Sh. % Assisted G Assisted Sh. % Ohio Machine 10.90 50 27.17 48 27.59 Denver Outlaws 12.84 35 20.11 53 29.28 Rochester Rattlers 12.92 57 26.51 55 31.07 Charlotte Hounds 13.59 50 23.15 80 39.02 MLL Average 13.65 458 25.30 566 32.81 Florida Launch 13.71 56 26.05 69 28.75 New York Lizards 14.44 55 24.77 53 28.34 Boston Cannons 14.63 56 24.78 72 37.89 Chesapeake Bayhawks 14.96 48 27.43 76 39.18 Atlanta Blaze 15.22 51 27.87 60 33.90 Courtesy of moneyballlacrosse.com (Joe Keegan et al) Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club 2017 Defensive Efficiency (by Scenario) Team Dodge Two-man Fast Break X Top Wings Ohio Machine 10.84 17.61 15.00 13.01 9.95 14.49 Florida Launch 11.97 16.17 21.39 11.93 14.21 12.97 Rochester Rattlers 12.05 15.47 18.15 12.09 12.86 12.86 Charlotte Hounds 13.62 18.68 19.17 14.42 12.97 18.90 MLL Average 14.05 16.00 18.52 14.02 14.11 15.78 Denver Outlaws 14.35 12.86 13.42 12.39 11.57 19.17 Chesapeake Bayhawks 14.59 17.37 22.87 15.60 14.64 16.28 New York Lizards 15.54 14.63 21.67 13.33 18.53 13.17 Boston Cannons 16.53 17.03 16.88 15.39 16.13 18.90 Atlanta Blaze 18.00 14.12 17.65 18.41 16.42 16.07 Courtesy of moneyballlacrosse.com (Joe Keegan et al) Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club 2017 Clearing/Riding (thru week 10) Team TO% Opponent TO% Clear % Ride % Atlanta Blaze 28.63 26.38 95.91 3.83 Boston Cannons 29.05 27.53 95.27 7.69 Charlotte Hounds 28.66 28.28 95.35 5.75 Chesapeake Bayhawks 31.15 30.51 95.43 7.30 Denver Outlaws 23.60 27.40 95.18 3.65 Florida Launch 28.94 24.17 92.94 6.02 MLL Average 28.50 28.50 94.51 5.49 New York Lizards 26.26 24.54 93.75 3.54 Ohio Machine 28.84 37.74 93.74 6.85 Rochester Rattlers 31.04 29.62 93.01 4.22 Courtesy of moneyballlacrosse.com (Joe Keegan et al) Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club 2017 Team Rebounding Percentages Team Offensive Rebounding % Defensive Rebounding % Charlotte Hounds 29.46 84.93 New York Lizards 28.17 66.67 Denver Outlaws 26.12 77.59 Ohio Machine 25.87 73.11 Chesapeake Bayhawks 25.64 66.02 MLL Average 24.66 75.34 Boston Cannons 23.44 73.53 Florida Launch 22.05 78.77 Atlanta Blaze 21.74 76.19 Rochester Rattlers 18.40 77.17 Courtesy of moneyballlacrosse.com (Joe Keegan et al) Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club 2017 Opposition Analysis: Team-Specific (FLA) Data (2017 MLL Regular Season) Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club 2017 Off. Player Contributions (thru week 10) Player PPG Points G Unassisted G Assisted G A 2-pt G GP Chazz Woodson 2.67 25 17 10 7 8 0 9 Kieran McArdle 4.60 24 18 10 8 6 0 5 Connor Buczek 2.50 20 15 13 2 3 2 8 Dylan Molloy 3.67 11 8 6 2 3 0 3 Jimmy Dailey 2.20 11 7 4 3 4 0 5 Ryan Drenner 2.67 8 4 3 1 4 0 3 Steve Pontrello 2.00 8 7 1 6 1 0 4 Steven Brooks 0.78 7 5 1 4 1 1 9 Sergio Salcido 1.25 5 2 1 1 3 0 4 Tim Edwards 0.83 5 3 1 2 2 0 6 Courtesy of moneyballlacrosse.com (Joe Keegan et al) Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club 2017 Catch-And-Shoot Scenarios (thru week 10) Player Assisted G Assisted Shots Assisted Sh. % Kieran McArdle 8 18 44.44 Chazz Woodson 7 15 46.67 Steve Pontrello 6 15 40.00 Steven Brooks 4 17 23.53 Jimmy Dailey 3 10 30.00 Connor Buczek 2 17 11.76 Greg Melaugh 2 10 20.00 Dylan Molloy 2 7 28.57 Nick Mariano 2 6 33.33 Tim Edwards 2 3 66.67 Courtesy of moneyballlacrosse.com (Joe Keegan et al) Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club 2017 Dodge-And-Shoot Scenarios (thru week 10) Player Unassisted G Unassisted Shots Unassisted Sh. % Connor Buczek 13 43 30.23 Chazz Woodson 10 27 37.04 Kieran McArdle 10 31 32.26 Dylan Molloy 6 17 35.29 Greg Melaugh 3 15 20.00 Martin Bowes 3 6 50.00 Jimmy Dailey 3 7 42.86 Jovan Miller 3 6 50.00 Ryan Drenner 3 6 50.00 Reagan Harding 2 9 22.22 Courtesy of moneyballlacrosse.com (Joe Keegan et al) Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club 2017 Assist to TO Ratios (thru week 10) Player A AO TO A-to-TO Chazz Woodson 8 20 16 0.50 Kieran McArdle 6 21 14 0.43 Ryan Drenner 4 8 1 4.00 Connor Buczek 3 24 18 0.17 Dylan Molloy 3 6 5 0.60 Sergio Salcido 3 3 7 0.43 James Dailey 2 3 1 2.00 Sean Meagher 2 4 0 0.00 Jimmy Dailey 2 7 7 0.29 Tim Edwards 2 4 1 2.00 Courtesy of moneyballlacrosse.com (Joe Keegan et al) Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club 2017 Two-Point Sh% (thru week 10) Player 2-point G 2-point Shots 2-point Sh. % Connor Buczek 2 15 13.33 Steven Brooks 1 7 14.29 Mark McNeill 0 2 0.00 PT Ricci 0 1 0.00 Reagan Harding 0 1 0.00 Steve Pontrello 0 2 0.00 Kieran McArdle 0 2 0.00 Sergio Salcido 0 1 0.00 Jarrod Neumann 0 1 0.00 Courtesy of moneyballlacrosse.com (Joe Keegan et al) Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club 2017 Fast Break Points (thru week 10) Player Points G Shots Sh.