Regional Growth Strategy September 2015 Release September
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Thompson-Nicola Regional District Regional Growth Strategy September 2015 Release TNRD Development Services Department 300-465 Victoria St. Kamloops, BC V2C 2A9 Office 250.377.8673 Toll Free (BC) 1.877.377.8673 www.tnrd.ca Introduction The Board of Directors adopted Regional Growth Strategy Bylaw 2409 in May of 2013, updating the original RGS of 2000. The RGS promotes human settlement that is socially, economically and environmentally responsible and that makes efficient use of public facilities, services, land, and other critical resources. The Local Government Act requires Regional Districts that have adopted an RGS to establish a program to monitor the implementation and the progress made towards the objectives and actions of that Strategy, and then to report on that progress on an annual basis. Monitoring RGS success requires gathering information to gauge our progress towards meeting the goals and objectives we have established. After extensive government and stakeholder consultation, the Board approved the 10 indicators that are examined in this report. The hope is that over time this data reveals trends that give us an accurate indication of the progress we are making toward achieving our RGS goals. These trends can determine the effectiveness of actions already implemented and the need for additional actions to protect current and future sustainability of our region. Monitoring gives us a feedback loop to tell us about the outcome of our decisions, those of higher governments, and the events and trends - sometimes global - that impact our lives in the TNRD. Acronym Reference List of 10 Indicators ALC Agricultural Land Commission LHA Local Health Area 1. Population ALR Agricultural Land Reserve MF Multi-Family AQHI Air Quality Health Index MoE Ministry of Environment 2. Housing BC British Columbia MSW Municipal Solid Waste BCAA BC Assessment Authority MV Motor vehicle 3. Transportation BMI Body Mass Index NAICS North American Industry Classification System BSE Bovine spongiform encephalopathy NHS National Household Survey 4. Economy CAC Criteria Air Contaminants NO2 Nitrogen Dioxide CEEI Community Energy & Emissions Inventory PM10 Particulate matter 10 µm or less in diameter 5. Employment CRD Cariboo Regional District PM2.5 Particulate matter 2.5 µm or less in diameter 6. Agriculture EA Electoral Area RGS Regional Growth Strategy EC Established community RSWMP Regional Solid Waste Management Plan 7. Agricultural Protection FVRD Fraser Valley Regional District SFD Single-family dwelling GHG Greenhouse Gas SMR Standardized Mortality Ratio 8. Environmental Health GIS Geographic Information Systems SOV Single occupancy vehicle ha hectare TNRD Thompson-Nicola Regional District 9. Waste Diversion HSDA Health Service Delivery Area TODR Thompson-Okanagan Development Region IR Indian Reserve 10. Composite Health Indicator Population Indicator How has population changed in municipalities and rural areas? What are the key Regional population trends of the past 5 years? RGS Goal: to recognize the importance of domestic and international immigration and attracting young families in 1 developing our labour force The RGS encourages new residential development to locate in established communities, meaning those Commentary serviced by community systems. Creating smaller lots in communities with established services allows for more The TNRD 2006 to 2011 population increase of 5.1% is less than the provincial 7% increase over the same cost-effective services now and in the future. The RGS also recognizes the importance of increasing our labour period. Given the addition of 5,302 people, 86% of the total TNRD increase was in the City of Kamloops. The force and thus attracting young families via domestic or international immigration. other 10 municipalities, combined, gained 502 people. Our EAs lost more people (738) than the small municipalities gained. This urbanization trend parallels the global rural to urban migration as mechanization of Context agriculture and resource extraction drives people to cities to secure work. This trend is also due to seniors Population increase across the TNRD is neither directly influenced by the RGS nor a specific RGS objective. moving to larger communities to be closer to health care and families to be closer to education and other However, population - where growth is occurring and who is moving where – has a critical impact on the Region community services. This shift conforms to the RGS policies that guide new residential development into and its local governments. 1) Where growth occurs is important because communities that are compact (dense populated centres where services are available and where those services will be more cost-efficient as the population areas with smaller lots) and complete (where people can live, work, play and worship near home) per-capita costs go down due to an economy of scale. make cost efficient use of services, infrastructure, and resources. 2) Who is moving to the TNRD is important because our population is aging. Attracting and retaining young families refreshes the labour pool, expands the First Nations are the fastest market for goods and services, and assures a future for our established communities. growing population in our region, a trend repeated Where is population growth occurring? across the Province and the country. Population across the Chart 1.1 shows that there has been a 5.1% increase in population in the TNRD between 2006 and 2011 71 mainly rural reserves in the (Canada Census). The City of Kamloops had a 6.6% increase while all other municipalities combined had a TNRD increased by 1,121, 2.6% increase. EAs combined saw a 4.3% reduction. Indian Reserves experienced a 19.2% increase and the countering the trend to fastest growth in our region. urbanization, qualifying: local population increase on IRs is affected by the Sun Rivers Chart 1.1: Census Population residential development on 140000 2006 Kamloops IR No. 1.* Some local First Nations have opted 120000 2011 to enter into partnerships with local governments to extend 100000 services to their communities. RGS policy supports First Bass Coast Music & Arts Festival, EA “N” south of Merritt July, 2015 80000 Nations collaboration in regional settlement planning. 60000 Summary 40000 The 2006 and 2011 Census provide statistics for our 20000 municipalities, EAs and Indian Reserves. BC Statistics makes population estimates for interval years 2012 to 0 2014. Both the Census populations and BC estimates 10 Kamloops All ALL EAs ALL IRs All EAs and IRs TNRD BC (x 100) are shown on Figure 1.2. BC Statistics estimates do not Municipalities* Municipalities* include population residing on Indian Reserves. (excl Kamloops) * Kamloops IR1 (which includes Sun Rivers) population data is * 2006 data is configured so as to assume Barriere, Clearwater and Sun Peaks existed as municipalities. not disaggregated for aboriginal vs. non-aboriginal population growth. Kamloops, Source: PictureBC Indicator Population How has the population changed in municipalities and rural areas? What are the key Regional population 2006: 122,286 1 trends of the past 5 years? 2011: 128,473 5.1% 90000 Summary – Age Distribution Chart 1.2: Census Populations and Estimates for Municipalities and Total EAs The 2011 Population-Age Distribution Graph shows the overall TNRD age distribution ranges in dark green 2006 Census 2011 Census 2012** 2013** 2014** vs. that of all of BC, scaled down, shown in lighter colour overlay. The bulge of dark colours on the graph ** 2012, 2013 and 2014 populations are estimates indicates a relatively high proportion of residents aged 45 to 65, both in comparison with other age ranges in 80000 the TNRD, and also in comparison with the age-distribution demographic of BC. Chart 1.3: Population Distribution Commentary 2011 Census 70000 # of People - BC Chart 1.2 shows the estimated populations of our municipalities and 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 total EAs for 2012 to 2014, with the known Census populations of 2006 and 2011. The estimates show a total TNRD population increase of 85 + Female TNRD 2,438 residents from 2011 to 2014. It is estimated that the City of 80-84 Male TNRD 60000 Kamloops saw 1,565 new residents or 64% of TNRD growth. 2011-2014 75-79 Female BC Male BC estimates also show our 10 EAs having a population increase of 643 70-74 people (26% of TNRD population growth). This is almost double the RGS forecast for EAs which estimated that only 15% of the population 65-69 50000 growth would occur in rural areas. 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40000 40-44 Age (years) 35-39 30-34 25-29 30000 20-24 15-19 10-14 20000 5-9 0-4 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 # of People - TNRD 10000 Commentary - Who is moving here – Demographics: The predominance of an aging TNRD population means that our natural growth rate (i.e. generated by 0 existing residents having children) is lower than other communities with a higher proportion of young people. This means that the migration (domestic and international) of people into the TNRD will become increasingly important for growth and for our ability to provide a viable labour force for the business and industries that keep our economy prosperous. As the broader provincial and national labour market is challenged with the natural decrease in younger workers, communities will compete to be the most attractive and family-friendly destination. Health and educational infrastructure as well as recreational amenities contribute to a high quality of life for all, and may become the deciding factor for migrating families. Housing Indicator Percentage of new housing starts in Electoral Areas located in Established Communities vs Rural RGS Goal: to preserve the rural and wilderness character of the region; contain urban and rural sprawl by building on the existing 2 network of diverse regional centers; and protect open space, and rural character.