UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE FOR ENVIRONMENT AND HUMAN SECURITY (UNU-EHS) REPORT No. 6 November 2012 Report No. 6 | November 2012 Where the Rain Falls Project − Case Study: Tanzania _ 3 _ 4 Where the Rain Falls Project − Case Study: Tanzania Report No. 6 | November 2012 ˝Where the Rain Falls˝ Project Case study: Tanzania Results from: Same District, Kilimanjaro Region Authors: Emma T. Liwenga, Lukas Kwezi and Tamer Afifi Report No. 6 | November 2012 Where the Rain Falls Project − Case Study: Tanzania _ 5 Acknowledgements This study was made possible through the kind financial support Institutes, particularly the Institute of Resource Assessment (IRA) of AXA Group and the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur at the University of Dar es Salaam, Stockholm Environment Foundation. However, we would like to extend our sincere ap- Institute (SEI), Sokoine University of Agriculture (SUA) and Ardhi preciation to various institutions and individuals who contributed University (ARU) for providing their research experience in this in various ways to the production of the “Where the Rain Falls” study. Tanzania case study report. We appreciate the support from local NGOs in Tanzania, First and foremost, our acknowledgements are due to the local such as PINGOs (Pastoralists Indigenous Non-Governmental communities and local government officials in the three villages Organizations), TAPHGO (Tanzania Pastoralist, Hunter-Gatherers of Bangalala, Vudee and Ruvu Mferejini in the Same District for Organization), TNRF (Tanzania Natural Resource Forum) and their enthusiasm and active participation in this study. EPMS (Environmental Protection and Management Services) for their enthusiasm and sharing experience based on their inter- We owe many thanks to Dr. Koko Warner (United Nations actions with local communities. We further acknowledge the University Institute for Environment and Human Security – cooperation provided by the International NGOs, particularly UNU-EHS), the Scientific Director of the project; to Mr. Kevin from IFAD, Oxfam and Red Cross regarding their experience in Henry (CARE), project coordinator; and Ms. Aurélie Ceinos the subject matter. (CARE), project officer, for their support before, during and after the field research. We are indebted to our research assistants Telemu Kassile, Jacqueline Senyagwa, Madaka Tumbo, Winifrida Matutu, We are grateful to the authorities in the Kilimanjaro Region, Raymond Nzalli and Lucia Alphin for their tireless efforts in con- particularly the Regional Agricultural Advisor and the Pangani ducting the fieldwork in the study villages. We also extend our Basin Water Board officials for providing their knowledge to this appreciation to our field enumerators: Lydia Mcharo, Mohamed study. We also appreciate the support and cooperation received Kambi, Mwanane Shabani and Rachael Maleza for their from Government Ministries, particularly the Vice President commitment in mobilizing the communities during Participatory Office – Division of Environment, the Prime Minister’s Office – Research Approach (PRA) sessions and household (HH) surveys. Disaster Management Department, Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperative Union, and the Ministry of Livestock and Fisheries We highly appreciate the technical support, guidance and data Development for their contributions of knowledge and experi- analysis provided by Mr. Magesh Nagarajan (formerly UNU- ence in this study. EHS) and the literature support provided by Ms. Sophie Zielcke (UNU-EHS). We also thank Ms. Verena Rossow (UNU-EHS) for We would like to extend our thanks to the Tanzania her enormous support in literature and data/map-related work, as Meteorological Agency (TMA); Academic and Research _ 6 Where the Rain Falls Project − Case Study: Tanzania Report No. 6 | November 2012 well as Mr. Davide Marino and Mr. Serge Birtel (both at UNU-EHS) for their engagement in the work in its early stages. We would also like to thank Mr. Charles Ehrhart (CARE) for his work in the preparatory and early phases of this project and Ms. Delphine Pinault (CARE) for her input and comments on the research protocol for this project. Moreover, we would like to thank Ms. Agnes Otzelberger from the CARE Poverty, Environment and Climate Change Network (PECCN) for reviewing and helping improve this report. We are grateful to the UNU-EHS communications team, namely Alice Fišer, Andrea Wendeler and Katharina Brach for their valuable work in publishing the case study reports. Also, we would like to thank Ms. Kimberly Bennett (CARE “Where the Rain Falls” communications coordinator) for editing this Report. Last but not least, we owe a lot to our peer reviewers, Dr. Chipo Plaxedes Mubaya (Senior Programme Officer, Institute of Resource Assessment, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania), Dr. Marloes Mul (Senior Lecturer of Water Resources Management, UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education, Delft, the Netherlands) and Dr. Chilanga Asmani (Programme Specialist – HIV & AIDS, United Nations Population Fund, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania) who have enriched this Report with their constructive critique and very useful comments and suggestions. Report No. 6 | November 2012 Where the Rain Falls Project − Case Study: Tanzania _ 7 Table of contents Figures 10 Plates 10 Tables 11 Abbreviations and acronyms 12 Executive summary 13 Section 1: Introduction 21 1.1 Background information 21 1.2 Goals and objectives of the research 22 1.3 Tanzania: country profile 23 1.4 Organization of the report 27 Section 2: Literature review 29 2.1 Overview of climate change 29 2.2 Climate change and food security 30 2.3 Climate change and migration patterns 33 Section 3: Methodology 35 3.1 Research design and approach 35 3.2 Data collection methods 36 3.3 Pre-testing and validation 39 3.4 Data analysis 40 3.5 Research limitationss 40 Section 4: Introduction to the case study area 43 4.1 Site selection: criteria for selection 43 4.2 Description of the research sites 45 4.3 Socio-demographic profile of surveyed communities 45 Section 5: Rainfall variability 49 5.1 Community perceptions on rainfall variability 49 5.2 Statistical analysis of Same meteorological station rainfall data (1950–2010) 53 5.3 Comparisons of community perceptions to actual rainfall data 63 5.4 Summary of key findings 67 _ 8 Where the Rain Falls Project − Case Study: Tanzania Report No. 6 | November 2012 Section 6: Livelihood and food security 69 6.1 Available resources 69 6.2 Population and livelihood activities 71 6.3 Livelihood problems 74 6.4 Socio-economic group differentiation 77 6.5 Temporal analysis of livelihood-related trends 79 6.6 Coping strategies in extreme climatic events 82 6.7 Future adaptation and coping strategies 85 6.8 Summary of key findings 87 Section 7: Migration and human mobility patterns 89 7.1 Type of migration in the study area 89 7.2 Migration patterns 93 7.3 Migration history 97 7.4 Impact of migration on food security and livelihood 102 7.5 Gender and migration 102 7.6 Mobility maps 104 7.7 Migration support systems and networks 104 7.8 Summary of key findings 105 Section 8: Linking rainfall variability, food security and migration 107 8.1 Rainfall patterns and variability 107 8.2 Livelihood risk and food security 108 8.3 Migration patterns 109 8.4 Non-migration 110 8.5 Interplay of rainfall variability, food security and migration 112 Section 9: Summary and conclusion 115 Section 10: Reflections for policymakers 119 Annex I: List of experts interviewed 122 Annex II: Participatory Research Approach sessions in study villages 124 Annex III: Household survey sampling (sampling chart) 125 Annex IV: Descriptive statistics of monthly rainfall 126 Annex V: National research team composition 128 Annex VI: Map of research site 130 References 132 Report No. 6 | November 2012 Where the Rain Falls Project − Case Study: Tanzania _ 9 Figures: Figure 1: Map of Africa showing location of Tanzania 23 Figure 2: Population of the United Republic of Tanzania 24 Figure 3: Rainfall variability vs. GDP growth in Tanzania 26 Figure 4: Rainfall seasons in Same (1950–2010) 54 Figure 5: Monthly rainfall in Same (1950–2010) (bar chart) 54 Figure 6: Monthly rainfall in Same (1950–2010) (graphs) 55 Figure 7: Smoothed annual and seasonal trends of rainfall in Same (1950s–2000s) 58 Figure 8: Number of rain days per season (1950s–2000s) 60 Figure 9: Number of rain days per annum (1950s–2000s) 60 Figure 10: Evolution profile of rainfall amount per year (1950–2010) 60 Figure 11: Evolution profile of rainfall amount per season (1950–2010) 62 Figure 12: Vicious circle of rainfall diminution and damage caused by some coping strategies 84 Plates: Plate 1: Resource maps for Bangalala and Ruvu Mferejini villages 70 Plate 2: Traditional water reservoir (Ndiva) in Bangalala village 72 Plate 3: Seasonality of rainfall availability, food production and migration in Ruvu Mferejini 81 _ 10 Where the Rain Falls Project − Case Study: Tanzania Report No. 6 | November 2012 Tables: Table 1: Trends in incidence of poverty in Mainland Tanzania, 200/01 and 2007 25 Table 2: Characteristics of the selected study villages 44 Table 3: Socio-economic profile of surveyed households 46 Table 4: Perceptions of rainfall variability 51 Table 5: Timeline of major climate events (1961–2011) 52 Table 6: Bimodal rainfall calendar 56 Table 7: Mean, standard deviation, minimum and maximum values of rainfall in Same (1950s–2000s) 57 Table 8: Non-seasonal and seasonal Mann-Kendall test for trend 61 Table 9: Main economic activities at present and in the past 10 years 73 Table 10: Households affected