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Local Transport Plan 3 Evidence Base September 2010

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Local Transport Plan 3 Evidence Base September 2010 Southend Local Transport Plan 3 Evidence Base September 2010 plan - design - enable Southend-on-Sea Borough Council – Local Transport Plan 3 Evidence Base – June 2010 1 Contents Section Page Executive Summary 8 Support the Economy 9 Tackle Climate Change 10 Equality of Opportunity 11 Safety and Security 12 Quality of life and a healthy natural environment 14 The Process 16 1. Support the Economy 17 1.1 Background 17 1.2 Key Characteristics of Southend 18 1.3 Policy Context 20 1.4 Data Analysis 23 1.5 Conclusions / SWOT 56 2. Tackle Climate Change & Air Quality 58 2.1 Background 58 2.2 Policy Context 58 2.3 Data Analysis 61 2.4 Air Quality 82 2.5 Conclusions / SWOT 84 3. Equality of Opportunity 86 3.1 Background 86 3.2 Policy Context 86 3.3 Data Analysis 87 3.4 Conclusions / SWOT 102 4. Safety and Security 104 4.1 Background 104 4.2 Policy Context 104 4.3 Data Analysis 106 4.4 Conclusions / SWOT 133 5. Quality of Life and a Healthy Natural Environment 136 5.1 Policy Context 136 5.2 Data Analysis 139 5.3 Conclusions / SWOT 172 Southend-on-Sea Borough Council – Local Transport Plan 3 Evidence Base – June 2010 2 List of Tables Table 1.1 Forecast housing and jobs growth to 2021 23 Table 1.2 Key economic data for Southend 24 Table 1.3 Driving time and distance from Southend to neighbouring KCDCs 26 Table 1.4 Bus travel from Southend to other regional transport nodes 27 Table 1.5 Rail connections / services to regional transport nodes and London 28 Table 1.6 Distance and driving time to KCDCs 29 Table 1.7 Towns within approximately 30 minutes commute of Southend 30 Table 1.8 Total Productivity Costs of Congestion per Annum by KCDC 30 Table 1.9 TEES cost of congestion Statistics for Southend 31 Table 1.10 Travel to work distances breakdown 32 Table 1.11 Mode of travel to work 33 Table 1.12 Percentage of vehicles with single occupancy 34 Table 1.13 In-commuting to Southend 34 Table 1.14 Top 3 In-commuting flows by mode 35 Table 1.15 Out-commuting 35 Table 1.16 Top 3 Out-commuting flows by mode 35 Table 1.17 Net commuting flows 36 Table 1.18 Place Survey (2008) 38 Table 1.19 Perceptions of improvements needed (Place Survey, 2008) 39 Table 1.20 Bus Service Frequencies 39 Table 1.21 NI 177 Bus Patronage 40 Table 1.22 NI 178 Bus Services Running on Time 42 Table 1.23 Southend Stations and Levels of Service 44 Table 1.24 NI 167, Congestion – average journey time (minutes: seconds) per mile during the AM peak 50 Table 1.25 Planned jobs growth 52 Table 2.1 CO2 emissions profile, 2007 63 Table 2.2 Detailed emissions profile by end user 64 Table 2.3 Comparison of per capita road transport emissions 65 Table 2.4 Forecast Trends – CO2 Emissions in the East of England 66 Table 2.5 Annual Average Rate of Change for Climatic Variables 69 Table 2.6 Climate Change Temperature Projections, Medium Emissions, 50% Probability 73 Table 2.7 Climate Change Precipitation Projections, Medium Emissions, 50% Probability Precipitation 74 Table 2.8 Future Storm Surge Trends 75 Table 2.9 Local Transport Climate Change Impacts, Considerations and Vulnerabilities 76 Table 2.10 Monitoring Results for Southend Chalkwell Park Site, 2001-2007 83 Table 3.1 Southend’s ageing population 88 Table 3.2 Benefit Claimants 88 Southend-on-Sea Borough Council – Local Transport Plan 3 Evidence Base – June 2010 3 Table 3.3 Accessibility to GPs in comparator authorities 89 Table 3.4 Accessibility to hospitals in comparator authorities 91 Table 3.5 Qualification levels in Southend 92 Table 3.6 Accessibility to primary schools in comparator authorities 93 Table 3.7 Accessibility to secondary schools in comparator authorities 94 Table 3.8 Accessibility to further education in comparator authorities 95 Table 3.9 Proportion of working age residents living within 45 minutes of a large employment site 97 Table 3.10 Accessibility to employment in comparator authorities 98 Table 3.11 Distance travelled for employment 99 Table 3.12 Mode of transport used for commuting to employment 100 Table 3.13 Comparison of peak hour train and car travel 101 Table 3.14 Locations within approximately 30 minutes of Southend 101 Table 4.1 KSI casualties 110 Table 4.2 Fatal casualties 112 Table 4.3 Recent changes in KSI in Southend 113 Table 4.4 Slight injury casualties 114 Table 4.5 Casualty rate by traffic volume 117 Table 4.6 KSI casualty rate by traffic volume 117 Table 4.7 Slight casualty rate by traffic volume 117 Table 4.8 Casualties by road user type for 2008 118 Table 4.9 Change in casualty numbers (all severities) by mode of travel from 1994-98 to 2008 118 Table 4.10 Children KSI 120 Table 4.11 Child pedestrian and cyclist casualties in 2008 and 1994-98 average 122 Table 4.12 Casualty reduction for at-risk groups 122 Table 4.13 KSI casualties for at-risk groups in 2008 122 Table 4.14 KSI casualty reduction for at-risk groups 123 Table 4.15 Casualty rate (all severities) per capita for at-risk groups (2008) 123 Table 4.16 Reduction in casualty rate (all severities) per capita for at-risk groups (2008) 123 Table 4.17 Factors related to perceived personal security at rail stations 130 Table 5.1 NI 198 Outturn for Southend and peer authorities (2008/2009) 140 Table 5.2 Extracts from the Place Survey 2008 143 Table 5.3 Local Tranquillity Scores 145 Table 5.4 Comparison of 2006 and 2008 Place survey Results 149 Table 5.5 Station Details 154 Table 5.6 National Indicator 5: Overall / General Satisfaction with Local Area 155 Table 5.7 Proportion of the population falling in the youngest and oldest age groups 165 Table 5.8 Obesity in Reception aged Children 2007/2008 168 Table 5.9 Obesity in Year 6 Children 169 Southend-on-Sea Borough Council – Local Transport Plan 3 Evidence Base – June 2010 4 List of Figures Figure 1.1 Southend speed map 37 Figure 1.2 Percentage of Good Level Bus Services Plotted against Town Population 40 Figure 1.3 Bus patronage during LTP2 41 Figure 1.4 Growth in rail passengers 42 Figure 1.5 School travel plans in Southend 46 Figure 1.6 Mode of travel to school 47 Figure 1.7 Number of workplace travel plans in Southend 48 Figure 1.8 Number of cycling trips in Southend 49 Figure 1.9 AM peak traffic flows 50 Figure 1.10 Vehicle growth target 50 Figure 1.11 Average vehicle delay 51 Figure 1.12 AADT of HGVs on selected roads in Southend (1999 – 2008) 55 Figure 2.1 Methane Emissions by sector, 2007 62 Figure 2.2 N2O Emissions by sector, 2007 63 Figure 2.3 CO2 Emissions by sector, 2007 64 Figure 2.4 Transport Fuel Consumption, 2007 67 Figure 2.5 NI 188 – Adapting to Climate Change 68 Figure 2.6 Annual Average Maximum Temperature (°C) 1935 – 2009 69 Figure 2.7 Annual Average Minimum Temperature (°C) 1935 – 2009 70 Figure 2.8 Annual Average Air Frost Days 1961 – 2009 70 Figure 2.9 Annual Average Rainfall (mm) 1935 – 2009 71 Figure 2.10 Annual Average Number of Sun Hours 1935 – 2009 71 Figure 2.11 Relative Sea Level Rise to 2100 75 Figure 2.12 The Environment Agency Flood Zones Locations 81 Figure 2.13 At Risk at Leigh and Southend Policy Unit 82 Figure 3.1 Accessibility to GPs 89 Figure 3.2 Accessibility to hospitals 90 Figure 3.3 Accessibility to primary schools 93 Figure 3.4 Accessibility to secondary schools 94 Figure 3.5 Accessibility to further education 95 Figure 3.6 Location of Major Employment Sites 96 Figure 3.7 Accessibility to Nearest Large Employment Site 97 Figure 3.8 Accessibility to employment 98 Figure 4.1 Trend of KSI casualties in Southend 112 Figure 4.2 Slight injury casualties in Southend 116 Figure 4.3 Accident rate by population 116 Figure 4.4 Location of traffic accidents 126 Southend-on-Sea Borough Council – Local Transport Plan 3 Evidence Base – June 2010 5 Figure 4.5 Location of road traffic accidents involving child injuries 127 Figure 4.6 Location of pedestrian accidents 128 Figure 4.7 Location of cyclist accidents 129 Figure 4.8 Proportion of respondents who feel safe during the day – breakdown by geography 131 Figure 4.9 Proportion of respondents who feel safe after dark – breakdown by geography 132 Figure 5.1 Mode of travel to school in Southend 140 Figure 5.2 Method of travel to work 141 Figure 5.3 Distance Travelled to work by residents in employment within each Borough and are between the ages of 16-74 141 Figure 5.4 Method of travel to work and proportion of jobs in each ward 142 Figure 5.5 Leisure facilities within Southend 143 Figure 5.6 Tranquillity Map of the County of Essex 144 Figure 5.7 Road Noise 146 Figure 5.8 Road Noise in the Borough of Southend 146 Figure 5.9 Noise contours of London Southend Airport 147 Figure 5.10 Light Pollution 148 Figure 5.11 Results for Southend on ‘Things that most need Improving in the Local Area’ 150 Figure 5.12 Results of NI 140, Fair Treatment by Local Services 150 Figure 5.13 NI 168, Principal Road Condition Comparing Southend, National and Regional151 Figure 5.14 NI 168, Principal Road Condition, Comparing Southend to Local Authorities in the East of England 152 Figure 5.15 NI 169, Non-Principal Road Condition Comparing Southend, National and Regional 153 Figure 5.16 NI 169, Non-Principal Road Condition, Comparing Southend to Local Authorities in the East of England 153 Figure 5.17 Percentage of Population undertaking at least 3 days a week x 30 minutes Moderate Participation, 2005/2006 156 Figure 5.18 Percentage of Adults with a Bicycle available by CCT 157 Figure 5.19 Percentage of Children with a Bicycle available by CCT 157 Figure 5.20 Percentage of Adult Cyclists by CCT 158 Figure 5.21 Percentage of Child Cyclists by CCT 158 Figure 5.22 Percentage of Child Cyclists who had Received Cycle Training by CCT 159 Figure 5.23 Percentage of Adults who usually Cycle to Work by CCT 160 Figure 5.24 Percentage of Children who usually Cycle to School by CCT 161 Figure 5.25 Male and Female Life Expectancy at Birth 162 Figure 5.26 Life Expectancy at Birth by Local and Unitary Authority 163 Figure 5.27 Life Expectancy at Birth by Ward in Southend 163 Figure 5.28 Limiting Long-Term Illness by Ward in Southend 164 Figure 5.29 Population by Age, UK, 1983, 2008 and 2033 165 Figure 5.30 ONS population projections for the proportion of the population aged over Southend-on-Sea Borough Council – Local Transport Plan 3 Evidence Base – June 2010 6 65.
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