New South Wales Legislative Assembly Elections 2003: Two-Candidate Preferred

NSW PARLIAMENTARY LIBRARY RESEARCH SERVICE New South Wales Legislative Assembly Elections 2003: Two-Candidate Preferred Results by Polling Place by Antony Green Background Paper No 7/03 RELATED PUBLICATIONS • Antony Green, New South Wales Election 2003 – Preliminary Analysis, NSW Parliamentary Library Research Service, Background Paper No 4/03 • Antony Green, New South Wales Election 2003 – Final Analysis, NSW Parliamentary Library Research Service, Background Paper No 6/03 ISSN 1325-5142 ISBN 0 7313 1745 9 August 2003 © 2003 Except to the extent of the uses permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means including information storage and retrieval systems, with the prior written consent from the Librarian, New South Wales Parliamentary Library, other than by Members of the New South Wales Parliament in the course of their official duties. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the New South Wales Parliamentary Library. NSW PARLIAMENTARY LIBRARY RESEARCH SERVICE David Clune (MA, PhD, Dip Lib), Manager.............................................. (02) 9230 2484 Gareth Griffith (BSc (Econ) (Hons), LLB (Hons), PhD), Senior Research Officer, Politics and Government / Law ......................... (02) 9230 2356 Talina Drabsch (BA, LLB (Hons)), Research Officer, Law....................... (02) 9230 2768 Rowena Johns (BA (Hons), LLB), Research Officer, Law........................ (02) 9230 2003 Roza Lozusic (BA, LLB), Research Officer, Law ..................................... (02) 9230 3085 Stewart Smith (BSc (Hons), MELGL), Research Officer, Environment ... (02) 9230 2798 John Wilkinson (BA (Hons), MA), Research Officer, Economics............ (02) 9230 2006 Information about Research Publications can be found on the Internet at: http://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/WEB_FEED/PHWebContent.nsf/PHPages/LibraryPublication The Author Antony Green is the Election Analyst for ABC-Television, and has worked for the ABC on every state and federal election coverage since 1989. He also writes regularly on electoral matters for the Sydney Morning Herald. Antony studied at Sydney University, obtaining a Bachelor of Science in mathematics and computing, and a Bachelor of Economics with Honours in politics. He produces regular publications for the Parliamentary Library on electoral matters. Acknowledgments I would like to thank the NSW Electoral Commissioner, Mr John Wasson, for the assistance of his office in providing the results of the state election. My particular thanks go to Ms Monica Floyd and Mr Terry Jessop of the State Electoral Office, and Mr Ian Brightwell of Hansen Technology for their assistance in providing election results in computer readable format. While this publication is based on the results provided by the Electoral Office, all calculation of two-party preferred votes and swings are the responsibility of the author. Abbreviations Exhst Exhausted Dec Inst Declared Institutions .. Zero or rounded to zero n.a. Not available Party Abbreviations ALP Australian Labor Party IND Independents GRN The Greens LIB Liberal Party NAT National Party ONP One Nation Introduction This publication provides estimated two-candidate preferred counts for every polling place at the 2003 Legislative Assembly election. It repeats the format used for similar publications on the last three state elections. As a redistribution has not taken place since 1999, it has been possible to again include a swing column in most tables. In the electorates of Albury, Bligh, Coffs Harbour, Dubbo, Keira, Manly, Marrickville, Northern Tablelands, Port Jackson, Port Macquarie, Tamworth, Willoughby and Wollongong, the final two candidates in the contest did not represent the Labor Party and the Coalition. Additional tables have been provided for these electorates showing two-party preferred estimates for the contest between Labor and the Coalition. These can be found on pages 94-106. It has not been possible to include swing columns in the two-party preferred tables. Beginning on page 107 are a series of tables showing the highest primary percentage votes achieved by parties in booths across the state. The lowest booth percentage votes recorded by the three major parties are shown on pages 118-120. How estimates were calculated It is important to remember that the tables in this book are of two-candidate and two-party preferred estimates. While the State Electoral Office performs an indicative throw of preferences on election night, these are not available, and are also not audited against the final distribution of preferences for the electorate. Estimates for polling places have been calculated by applying the distribution of preferences at the electorate level to the primary votes in each polling place. Candidates were eliminated in the same order using the electorate level flows of preferences. This process is best explained by example. Consider the electorate of Lachlan. The four candidates recorded the following votes, and preferences were distributed as follows. First Distribution Second Distribution % of New % of New Lachlan Votes Votes Prefs Total Votes Prefs Total Armstrong (NAT) 26961 281 16.57 27242 588 31.66 27830 Constable (ONP) 1791 66 3.89 1857 Pollard (ALP) 10374 595 35.08 10969 284 15.29 11253 McKinnon (GRN) 1696 Exhausted 754 44.46 754 985 53.04 1739 These preference flows were applied to each individual polling place, as in the following example for the Junee booth. Note that while in Junee, the Green candidate outpolled One Nation, the candidates are still excluded in the same order as for the electorate as a whole. First Distribution Second Distribution New New Junee Booth Votes Votes Total Votes Total Armstrong (NAT) 1227 25 1252 23 1275 Constable (ONP) 69 6 75 .. .. Pollard (ALP) 799 52 851 12 863 McKinnon (GRN) 149 .. .. .. .. Exhausted .. 66 66 40 106 In calculating the two-candidate preferred estimates, minor rounding errors can occur. This means that the total of the two-candidate preferred results by booths may not equal the actual results for the electorate as a whole. To avoid confusion, in all the tables, the figures in the "Grand Total" line are the actual results for the electorate, not the total calculated by summing the booths. In most electorates, rounding errors cause the sum of the booths to differ slightly from the actual result, an error in most cases of just a handful of votes. The "Exhausted" column is also an estimated figure, and represents the difference between the total of the two-candidate or two-party preferred votes, and the primary votes. Again, the "Grand Total" is the electorate result, and not the sum of the booths. Swing Column Note that in every table, the swing is to or from the candidate in the FIRST column of the table. In two-party contests, this is always the Labor candidate. Where the Labor candidate was not one of the final two-candidates in an electorate, the first column is for the winning candidate. So a ‘+’ value in the swing column is a swing to the candidate in the first column, a ‘-‘ value a swing away from the candidate in the first column. The swing is measured against the estimate count in the same booth in 1999. (See NSW Legislative Assembly Elections 1999: Two-Candidate Preferred Results by Polling Place, NSW Parliamentary Library Research Service, Background Paper No 6/99). Where a booth did not exist in 1999, no swing is shown. In several seats, there was a different combination of final candidates at the two elections. Footnotes are included for these electorates explaining the meaning of the swing. In the electorates of Port Macquarie and Tamworth, no sensible swing figure could be calculated. It should be remembered that the swing is calculated based on estimates of preferences in both 1999 and 2003. It may be that at either election, the proportion of preferences flowing to the final two candidates varied from booth to booth. Given the swing is calculated from two estimates, it should be viewed as indicative of the swing rather than an exact measure. Tables of highest and lowest primary votes These tables are ordered first by the percentage vote, and then by the size of the booth. Antony Green August 2003 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Page Electorate 2CP 2PP Electorate 2CP 2PP Albury 1 94 Mulgoa 57 Auburn 2 Murray-Darling 58 Ballina 3 Murrumbidgee 59 Bankstown 4 Myall Lakes 60 Barwon 5 Newcastle 61 Bathurst 6 North Shore 62 Baulkham Hills 7 Northern Tablelands 63 101 Bega 8 Orange 64 Blacktown 9 Oxley 65 Bligh 10 95 Parramatta 66 Blue Mountains 11 Peats 67 Burrinjuck 12 Penrith 68 Cabramatta 13 Pittwater 69 Camden 14 Port Jackson 70 102 Campbelltown 15 Port Macquarie 71 103 Canterbury 16 Port Stephens 72 Cessnock 17 Riverstone 73 Charlestown 18 Rockdale 74 Clarence 19 Ryde 75 Coffs Harbour 20 96 Smithfield 76 Coogee 21 South Coast 77 Cronulla 22 Southern Highlands 78 Davidson 23 Strathfield 79 Drummoyne 24 Swansea 80 Dubbo 25 97 Tamworth 81 104 East Hills 26 The Entrance 81 Epping 27 The Hills 83 Fairfield 28 Tweed 84 Georges River 29 Upper Hunter 85 Gosford 30 Vaucluse 86 Granville 31 Wagga Wagga 87 Hawkesbury 32 Wakehurst 88 Heathcote 33 Wallsend 89 Heffron 34 Wentworthville 90 Hornsby 35 Willoughby 91 105 Illawarra 36 Wollongong 92 106 Keira 37 98 Wyong 93 Kiama 38 Kogarah 39 Highest Primary Votes Page Ku-ring-gai 40 Australian Labor Party 107 Lachlan 41 Liberal Party 108 Lake Macquarie 42 National Party 109 Lakemba 43 The Greens 110 Lane Cove 44 Christian

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