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Characterization of Historic Drought and Excessive Moisture in the Qu’Appelle River Watershed

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Characterization of Historic Drought and Excessive Moisture in the Qu’Appelle River Watershed Characterization of Historic Drought and Excessive Moisture September 2013 in the Qu’Appelle River Watershed Characterization of Historic Drought and Excessive Moisture in the Qu’Appelle River Watershed Prepared for Water Security Agency of Saskatchewan as part of the Natural Resource Canada Research Project Topic 3.3 – Case Studies of Mining Sector Adaptation Actions By V. Wittrock Saskatchewan Research Council Environment Division SRC Publication No. 13462-5E13 September 2013 1 SRC Pulbication No 13462-5E13 LIMITED Characterization of Historic Drought and Excessive Moisture in the Qu’Appelle River Watershed Prepared for Water Security Agency of Saskatchewan as part of the Natural Resource Canada Research Project Topic 3.3 – Case Studies of Mining Sector Adaptation Actions By V. Wittrock Saskatchewan Research Council Environment Division SRC Publication No. 13462-5E13 September 2013 Saskatchewan Research Council 125 – 15 Innovation Blvd. Saskatoon, SK S7N 2X8 Tel: 306-933-5400 Fax: 306-933-7817 Characterization of Historic Drought and Excessive Moisture in the Qu’Appelle River Watershed September 2013 Abstract Climate extremes are common on the Canadian prairies. Droughts and floods can occur in the same year and can last multiple years. Preparedness for these events can assist to decrease or avoid the potential costs associated with negative impacts caused by these events. The potash mining industry in the Qu’Appelle River Watershed is relatively new and as such it has not had to adapt to longer duration events. Therefore, utilizing the information provided will assist the industry with their risk management strategies. These include whether adequate water supply is available for longer duration droughts or retention pond structures are adequate for many years of excessive moisture conditions. The purpose of this report is to examine the climate of the Qu’Appelle River Watershed over the last 110 years. This information will assist in improving the planning and preparation for future extreme drought and excessive moisture events by the potash industry. The objectives are to: Develop temperature and precipitation databases based on monthly values for the study area and surrounding region Develop databases and characterize the intensity, duration, frequency and spatial pattern of the events for study area and surrounding region using various climatic indices including the Palmer Drought Severity Index, the Standardized Precipitation Index and the Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index. The last 15 years have highlighted the extremes with intense drought in the early 21st century (1999-2003) to extreme excessive moisture in the later part of the first decade of the 21st century (2010-2011). These events were compared with the drought events (1930s, 1940s and 1961) and excessive moisture periods that occurred in the 1950s and late 1960s to early 1970s. Therefore knowledge of historic extreme climatic events along with other indicators of future extremes assists with adapting to future extreme events. SRC Publication No. 13462-5E13 i Characterization of Historic Drought and Excessive Moisture September 2013 in the Qu’Appelle River Watershed ii SRC Publication No. 13462-5E13 Characterization of Historic Drought and Excessive Moisture in the Qu’Appelle River Watershed September 2013 Table of Contents Abstract .................................................................................................................................................................. i Introduction ........................................................................................................................................................... 1 Purpose and Objectives..................................................................................................................................... 3 Data and Methods ............................................................................................................................................. 3 Temperature and Precipitation Trends .................................................................................................................. 6 Temperature Trends .......................................................................................................................................... 6 Annual Temperature Trends ......................................................................................................................... 7 Seasonal Temperature Trends ...................................................................................................................... 7 Winter ....................................................................................................................................................... 8 Spring ....................................................................................................................................................... 8 Summer .................................................................................................................................................... 8 Autumn ..................................................................................................................................................... 9 Precipitation Trends .......................................................................................................................................... 9 Yearly Precipitation Trends .......................................................................................................................... 9 Seasonal Precipitation Trends .................................................................................................................... 10 Winter ..................................................................................................................................................... 10 Spring ..................................................................................................................................................... 11 Summer .................................................................................................................................................. 12 Autumn ................................................................................................................................................... 13 Climate Indices ................................................................................................................................................... 14 Palmer Drought Severity Index ...................................................................................................................... 14 Temporal Patterns .................................................................................................................................. 14 Spatial Patterns ....................................................................................................................................... 15 Drought .............................................................................................................................................. 16 Excessive Moisture ............................................................................................................................ 16 Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index ..................................................................................... 16 Temporal Patterns .................................................................................................................................. 16 Spatial Patterns ....................................................................................................................................... 17 Drought .............................................................................................................................................. 17 Excessive Moisture ............................................................................................................................ 17 Standardized Precipitation Index .................................................................................................................... 18 Temporal Patterns .................................................................................................................................. 18 Spatial Patterns ....................................................................................................................................... 18 Drought .............................................................................................................................................. 18 Excessive Moisture ............................................................................................................................ 18 Conclusions and Recommendations ................................................................................................................... 19 Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................................................. 20 References ........................................................................................................................................................... 21 SRC Publication No. 13462-5E13 iii Characterization of Historic Drought and Excessive Moisture September 2013 in the Qu’Appelle River Watershed Figures Figure 1 The number of natural catastrophes worldwide………………………...………………………...1 Figure 2 Major Natural Catastrphes in Caanda and USA in
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