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Strategic Environmental Assessment of the Marine Spatial Plan Proposal for the Gulf of Bothnia

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Strategic Environmental Assessment of the Marine Spatial Plan Proposal for the Gulf of Bothnia Strategic Environmental Assessment of the Marine Spatial Plan proposal for the Gulf of Bothnia Consultation document Swedish Agency for Marine and Water Management 2018 Swedish Agency for Marine and Water Management Date: 10/04/2018 Publisher: Björn Sjöberg Contact person environmental assessment and SEA: Jan Schmidtbauer Crona Swedish Agency for Marine and Water Management Box 11 930, SE-404 39 Gothenburg, Sweden www.havochvatten.se This strategic environmental assessment (SEA) was prepared by the consulting firm COWI AB on behalf of the Swedish Agency for Marine and Water Management (SwAM). Consultant: Mats Ivarsson, Assignment Manager COWI Kristina Bernstén, Assignment Manager SEA Selma Pacariz, Administrator Environment Ulrika Roupé, Administrator Environment Emelie von Bahr, Administrator Environment Marian Ramos Garcia, Administrator GIS Morten Hjorth and others Strategic Environmental Assessment Maritime Spatial Plan - Gulf of Bothnia Swedish Agency for Marine and Water Management 2017 Preface In the Marine Spatial Planning Ordinance, the Swedish Agency for Marine and Water Management (SwAM) is given the responsibility for preparing proposals on three marine spatial plans (MSPs) with associated strategic environmental assessments (SEAs) in broad collaboration. The MSPs shall provide guidance to public authorities and municipalities in the planning and review of claims for the use of the marine area. The plans shall contribute to sustainable development and shall be consistent with the objective of a good environmental status in the sea. In the work on marine spatial planning, SwAM prepared a current situation description (SwAM report 2015:2) and a roadmap (SwAM 2016:21), which includes the scope of the SEA. On 15 February 2018, the Agency published three MSP drafts for the Gulf of Bothnia, the Baltic Sea, and Skagerrak and Kattegat. This associated SEA and sustainability assessment were published on 10 April 2018. The SEA for the MSP draft for the Gulf of Bothnia in the dialogue phase was prepared by the consulting firm WSP Sverige AB. Comments submitted during the dialogue phase were worked into the MSP drafts prior to the consultation phase between 15 February and 15 August 2018. A revised SEA for the three revised MSPs was prepared by the consulting firm COWI AB. Together with new documentation from the environmental assessment tool Symphony, analysed by the consultants Medins Havs- och Vattenkonsulter, comments submitted during the dialogue phase were worked into the SEA. Symphony contributes to a more detailed spatial analysis of the nature values, their sensitivities, and impacts from plan proposals. The revision was done in collaboration with SwAM, where COWI AB provided the assessment of environmental effects and consequences along with comparisons with environmental objectives. The results from the SEA will be included in the continued planning work and will constitute input for revision of the plan proposal prior to the review phase in the spring of 2019. Gothenburg, 10 April 2018 Björn Sjöberg, Director, Department for Marine and Water Management 4 Swedish Agency for Marine and Water Management 2018 CONTENTS 1 SUMMARY ......................................................................................... 7 2 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................ 16 2.1 Background: National marine spatial planning with associated environmental assessment ..................................................................... 16 2.2 MSP’s purpose and objective ................................................................. 17 2.3 MSP’s relation to other plans and programmes ..................................... 18 2.4 Strategic environmental assessment ...................................................... 19 2.5 Guiding objectives ................................................................................. 20 2.6 Sustainability assessment ...................................................................... 21 3 MARITIME SPATIAL PLAN - GULF OF BOTHNIA .................................... 22 3.1 Summary of the Maritime Spatial Plan - Gulf of Bothnia ...................... 23 3.2 Bothnian Bay .......................................................................................... 24 3.3 Northern Bothnian Sea and Norra Kvarken .......................................... 25 3.4 Southern Bothnian Sea .......................................................................... 26 4 ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT METHOD............................................ 29 4.1 Purpose of the environmental assessment ............................................. 29 4.2 Scope ...................................................................................................... 29 4.3 Symphony............................................................................................... 31 4.4 Environmental assessment method ....................................................... 33 5 BASIC CONDITIONS ........................................................................... 37 5.1 General ................................................................................................... 37 5.2 Physical and chemical conditions .......................................................... 37 5.3 Biological conditions ............................................................................. 40 5.4 Protected areas ....................................................................................... 46 6 CURRENT SITUATION ........................................................................ 53 6.1 Sectors and themes ................................................................................ 53 6.2 Cumulative effects - present situation.................................................... 61 7 ZERO ALTERNATIVE .......................................................................... 71 7.1 Sectors and themes ................................................................................ 71 7.2 Outlook towards 2050 ............................................................................ 77 7.3 Cumulative effects - zero alternative ...................................................... 79 8 PLAN ALTERNATIVE .......................................................................... 91 8.1 Sectors and themes ................................................................................ 91 5 Swedish Agency for Marine and Water Management 2018 8.2 Outlook towards 2050 ............................................................................ 95 8.3 Cumulative effects - plan alternative ..................................................... 95 9 COLLECTIVE ASSESSMENT .............................................................. 113 9.1 Environmental impact .......................................................................... 113 9.2 Evaluation of the plan – sustainability and goal attainment ............... 120 10 MONITORING AND AUDIT ................................................................. 133 10.1 Continued planning process and environmental assessment .............. 133 10.2 Evaluation and follow-up ..................................................................... 133 REFERENCES ........................................................................................... 134 APPENDICES ............................................................................................ 138 Glossary ........................................................................................................... 138 6 Swedish Agency for Marine and Water Management 2018 1 Summary Background, objectives, and purpose The Swedish Agency for Marine and Water Management (SwAM) was assigned by the Government to prepare marine spatial plans (MSPs) for the Gulf of Bothnia, the Baltic Sea, and Skagerrak and Kattegat. For each MSP, an environmental assessment and associated environmental impact assessment, the strategic environmental assessment (SEA), are also being prepared. This report is the SEA for the Gulf of Bothnia marine spatial planning area. It constitutes a consultation document together with the proposals on MSPs that were prepared by SwAM for consultation in the spring and summer of 2018. In this SEA, the MSP’s three marine sub-regions have been analysed – Bothnian Bay, the Northern Bothnian Sea and Norra Kvarken, and the Southern Bothnian Sea. The objective of the SEA is to integrate environmental aspects in the planning and decision-making so that sustainable development is promoted (Chapter 6 Section 1 of the Environmental Code). With the help of the planning method Symphony, the cumulative environmental impact within the marine spatial planning area has been estimated and analysed with the aim of assessing the result of the MSP in relation to the zero alternative for 2030. In parallel with the SEA, a sustainability assessment was also done. The sustainability assessment is based on the three sustainability dimensions of Economy, Ecology, and Social aspects. Through the sustainability assessment, an expanded perspective is added to the SEA by also covering the plan’s socio- economic and social impact. The sustainability assessment is presented in a separate report. Most of the evaluated sectors’ operations and development entail an impact on the environment and biological diversity. The results from Symphony indicate that the majority of the environmental impact can be traced to land-based or historical emissions. However, the present MSP proposal entails no or
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