DOCSLIB.ORG

Essays in Political Economy: Elections, Public Finance and Service Delivery in South Africa

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Essays in Political Economy: Elections, Public Finance and Service Delivery in South Africa Essays in Political Economy: Elections, Public Finance and Service Delivery in South Africa Verena Ernestine Kroth * A thesis submitted to the Department of Government of the London School of Economics and Political Science for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. London, April 2014. ___________________________ * London School of Economics and Political Science Declaration I certify that the thesis I have presented for examination for the MPhil/PhD degree of the London School of Economics and Political Science is solely my own work other than where I have clearly indicated that it is the work of others (in which case the extent of any work carried out jointly by me and any other person is clearly identified in it). I can confirm that the idea for chapter 2 emerged from my previous study for Master of Public Administration at the London School of Economics and Political Science. Chapter 3 is based on a paper that was written jointly with Joachim Wehner and Valentino Larcinese. I certify that I was responsible for the data collection and spatial analysis. Each of us contributed equally to the data analysis and writing of the paper. The copyright of this thesis rests with the author. Quotation from it is permitted, provided that full acknowledgement is made. This thesis may not be reproduced without the prior written consent of the author. I warrant that this authorization does not, to the best of my belief, infringe the rights of any third party. I can confirm that this thesis was copy edited for conventions of language, spelling, and grammar by Michael Wise. 2 Abstract Who gets what, when and how? Each of the three papers in this thesis makes a distinct contribution to answering this question in the context of the political economy of South Africa. The first paper examines how South Africa’s public financial management system distributes central government funds to its provinces. Using a unique panel dataset comprising all provinces and three elections over the period 1995-2010, I demonstrate that provinces where the national ruling party has higher vote margins receive higher per capita equitable shares in pre-election years. This result suggests that even in a dominant party framework, electoral competition can function as an incentive to implement political budget cycles. The second paper evaluates how the extension of the franchise affected the delivery of electricity to South African households. The dataset combines nightlight satellite imagery, census data and municipal election results, making it possible to exploit the heterogeneity in the share of newly enfranchised voters across nearly 800 municipalities with a difference-in-differences approach. The analysis demonstrates that enfranchisement has a significant positive effect on household electrification. Moreover, the findings show that political parties have a potential mediating role in accounting for service delivery patterns in new democracies. The third paper addresses the problem of measurement in studying public service delivery by examining a novel methodology for combining census-based data with satellite imagery of the world at night. Using cross-national data and South African census data, the paper provides a roadmap for how to navigate limitations and thus make the most of this technological advance in quantitative social science research. 3 Acknowledgments There are many individuals to whom I am very grateful for guidance and support. First and foremost, I would like to thank my supervisor, Joachim Wehner, who inspired me to take on this project and provided invaluable ideas and feedback every step of the way. I would also like to thank my advisor, Valentino Larcinese, for his continued support, and Bob Mattes who provided invaluable guidance during my time at the Democracy in Africa Research Unit at the University of Cape Town. At Harvard University, where I spent the last year of my PhD, I benefited greatly from Jim Alt’s mentorship. The spatial analysis in my thesis was possible thanks to the support from Harvard’s Center for Geographic Analysis and Institute for Quantitative Social Science. The first paper benefitted particularly from discussions with Joachim Wehner, Jim Alt, Albert van Zyl and Robert Cameron. The second paper was co-authored with Joachim Wehner and Valentino Larcinese and we received helpful feedback from Mark Borchers, Robert Cameron, Daniel de Kadt, Torun Dewan, Taryn Dinkelman, Andy Eggers, Steven Friedman, Elliott Green, Dominik Hangartner, Simon Hix, Mareike Kleine, Johannes Lindvall, Brian Min, Ian Osgood, Pablo Querubin, David Soskice, Johannes Urpelainen, and Leonard Wantchekon. The idea for the third paper was inspired by Brian Min and greatly benefitted from written feedback from Anne-Marie Jeannet and Clara Rubincam. For support with data and spatial analysis relevant to all chapters, I wish to extend a special thank you to Simo Goshev at the Harvard-MIT Data Center, Kevin Perry at StatsSA, and Giovanni Zambotti and Stacy Bogan at the Harvard Center for Geographic Analysis. 4 Table of Contents Chapter I Introduction 10 1.1 Investigating the role of political competition as an incentive to redistribute public resources 11 1.2 Emphasizing the institutional environment as a determinant of available policy options 13 1.3 Explaining distributive patterns of public service delivery 15 1.4 Using South Africa as a testing ground for the politics of service delivery 17 1.5 Highlighting the importance of measurement and good data 20 Chapter II Political budget cycles and intergovernmental transfers in a dominant party framework: empirical evidence from South Africa 22 2.1 Introduction 23 2.2 A distributive politics perspective on political budget cycles 26 2.3 Incentive and ability in the South African context 30 2.4 Empirical strategy 40 2.5 Estimation results 47 2.6 Evaluation and further discussion 53 2.7 Conclusion 57 Chapter III A better life for all? Democratization and electrification in post-apartheid South Africa 60 3.1 Introduction 61 3.2 Enfranchisement, political parties, and electrification 67 3.3 Variables and data 73 3.4 Empirical strategy 84 5 3.5 Main results 85 3.6 The mediating role of political parties 95 3.7 Conclusion 102 Chapter IV How can we study socioeconomic outcomes from outer space? Opportunities and pitfalls of using nighttime lights data in quantitative social science research 106 4.1 Introduction 107 4.2 A social science perspective on nighttime light satellite imagery 112 4.3 Turning nighttime lights into proxies for socioeconomic outcomes 124 4.4 Cross-validation with cross-country and census data 128 4.5 Categorizing pitfalls and navigating them 141 4.6 Conclusion 152 Chapter V 155 Discussion and implications 155 References 166 Appendix 193 Appendix A 193 Appendix B 196 Appendix C 213 6 List of Tables Table 1: Electoral outcomes in South African provinces, 1994, 1999, 2004 and 2009 ...................................................................................................... 33 Table 2: Definition and descriptive statistics for key variables .................. 44 Table 3: The impact of vote margin on intergovernmental transfers in pre- election years .............................................................................................. 51 Table 4: The evolution of the pre-election vote margin effect over time .. 56 Table 5: The impact of enfranchisement on electrification (census data) . 88 Table 6: The impact of enfranchisement on electrification (satellite data, with placebo regressions) ......................................................................... 93 Table 7: The impact of enfranchisement on electrification (contiguous census tract pairs) ...................................................................................... 94 Table 8: The role of the ANC’s seat share on local councils...................... 101 Table 9: Correlating different measures of socioeconomic outcomes in 81 countries ................................................................................................... 133 Table 10: Correlating different measures of socioeconomic outcomes in South African municipalities ................................................................. 140 Table 11: Overview matrix of electrification measures ............................. 150 Appendix Table A1: Components of the equitable share formula between 1995 and 2010 ................................................................................................ 193 Appendix Table A2: Description of variables .................................................. 194 Appendix Table B1: Geographical hierarchies in census 1996 and 2001 205 Appendix Table B2: Descriptive statistics ......................................................... 209 Appendix Table B3: Robustness to excluding municipalities with high levels of electrification in 1996 ............................................................................... 210 7 Appendix Table B4: Robustness to excluding municipalities in individual provinces........................................................................................................ 211 Appendix Table C1: Selected empirical applications of nighttime light satellite imagery in descending order ....................................................... 218 Appendix Table C2: Tracing changes in socioeconomic outcomes over time ......................................................................................................................... 219 8 List of Figures Figure 1: Breakdown
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Download Download
    Strategic Review for Southern Africa, Vol 42, No 2. Nov /Dec 2020 129 Elusive Pursuit of Reconciliation and Development in Post-Apartheid South Africa Vusi Gumede Article DOI: https://doi.org/10.35293/srsa.v42i2.77 University of Mpumalanga, South Africa Abstract Debates on whether reconciliation is taking place and particularly the issue of inclusive development continue in South Africa. Reconciliation is understood as a process whereby different population groups in South Africa peacefully coexist and restore amicable relations which were fractured by colonialism and apartheid. Inclusive development has to do with the socio-economic transformation that involves, or rather benefits all the peoples of a country. Socio- economic transformation is considered slow since the dawn of democracy, with nation-building, development, freedom, and related objectives having suffered in post-apartheid South Africa. The notions of justice and inclusivity require comprehensive analysis, especially many years after the formal end of apartheid in 1994. The paper examines development and reconciliation, in seeking an explanation for what appears to be a changing political landscape in South Africa, epitomised by the decline in the number of votes that the governing party, the African National Congress (ANC), is receiving since 2009 while the Economic Freedom Fighters, a relatively new party, is gaining traction. It is argued that the slow pace of inclusive development and weak reconciliation are compromising the ANC, resulting in the evolution of the political landscape in South Africa. Essentially, the inability to improve reconciliation has resulted in weak inclusive development and makes it difficult for South Africa to become a nation.
    [Show full text]
  • Title: Black Consciousness in South Africa : the Dialectics of Ideological
    Black Consciousness in South Africa : The Dialectics of Ideological Resistance to White title: Supremacy SUNY Series in African Politics and Society author: Fatton, Robert. publisher: State University of New York Press isbn10 | asin: 088706129X print isbn13: 9780887061295 ebook isbn13: 9780585056890 language: English Blacks--South Africa--Politics and government, Blacks--Race identity--South Africa, South Africa-- Politics and government--1961-1978, South subject Africa--Politics and government--1978- , South Africa--Social conditions--1961- , Blacks--South Africa--Social cond publication date: 1986 lcc: DT763.6.F37 1986eb ddc: 305.8/00968 Blacks--South Africa--Politics and government, Blacks--Race identity--South Africa, South Africa-- Politics and government--1961-1978, South subject: Africa--Politics and government--1978- , South Africa--Social conditions--1961- , Blacks--South Africa--Social cond Page i Black Consciousness in South Africa Page ii SUNY Series in African Politics and Society Henry L. Bretton and James Turner, Editors Page iii Black Consciousness in South Africa The Dialectics of Ideological Resistance to White Supremacy Robert Fatton Jr. State University of New York Press Page iv Published by State University of New York Press, Albany © 1986 State University of New York All rights reserved Printed in the United States of America No part of this book may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical articles and reviews. For information, address State University of New York Press, State University Plaza, Albany, N.Y., 12246 Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Fatton, Robert. Black consciousness in South Africa. (SUNY series in African politics and society) Revision of the author's thesis (Ph.D)University of Notre Dame.
    [Show full text]
  • Restructuring of the South African Economy: 1994 – 2014
    Restructuring of the South African economy: 1994 – 2014 Edwards L1., Flowerday W2., Rankin N3., Roberts G2. and Schöer V2. December 2014 1 SALDRU, School of Economics, University of Cape Town, 2 AMERU, School of Economic and Business Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand 3 ReSEP, Department of Economics, Stellenbosch University Contents 1. Introduction .............................................................................................................................................. 1 2.1 The challenge of 1994 ............................................................................................................................ 2 Table 1: Share of population living in poverty in 1995 (year 2000 prices) ........................................... 2 Table 2: Labour market outcomes in 1995 ........................................................................................... 2 Table 3: General election results 1994 – 2014 ..................................................................................... 4 2.2 Macroeconomic policy frameworks in South African from 1994 - 2014 .............................................. 4 2.3 Labour market reform in post-Apartheid South Africa ....................................................................... 14 Table 4: Aims and coverage of South African labour legislation ........................................................ 14 2.3.1. Wage bargaining process .............................................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Abstract This Paper Explores the Under-Appreciated Role of Business
    Business and the South African Transition Itumeleng Makgetla and Ian Shapiro Draft: February 20, 2016 Abstract This paper explores the under-appreciated role of business in negotiated transitions to democracy. Drawing on our interviews of key South African business leaders and political elites, we show how business played a vital role in enabling politicians to break out of the prisoners’ dilemma in which they had been trapped since the 1960s and move the country toward the democratic transition that took place in 1994. Business leaders were uniquely positioned to play this role, but it was not easy because they were internally divided and deeply implicated in Apartheid’s injustices. We explain how they overcame these challenges, how they facilitated negotiations, and how they helped keep them back on track when the going got rough. We also look at business in other transitional settings, drawing on South Africa’s experience to illuminate why business efforts to play a comparable role in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict have failed. We end by drawing out the implications of our findings for debates about democratic transitions and the role of business interests in them. Department of Political Science, P.O. Box 208301, New Haven, CT 06520-830. Phone:(203) 432-3415; Fax: (203): 432- 93-83. Email: [email protected] or [email protected] On March 21, 1960, police opened fire on a demonstration against South Africa’s pass laws in Sharpeville, fifty miles south of Johannesburg, killing 69 people. The callousness of the massacre – many victims were shot in the back while fleeing – triggered a major escalation in the conflict between the African National Congress (ANC) and the National Party (NP) government.
    [Show full text]
  • The Political Economy of the South African Revolution
    The African e-Journals Project has digitized full text of articles of eleven social science and humanities journals. This item is from the digital archive maintained by Michigan State University Library. Find more at: http://digital.lib.msu.edu/projects/africanjournals/ Available through a partnership with Scroll down to read the article. The Political Economy of the South African Revolution Bernard Magubane The white man in South African Colonies feels that the colony ought to be his and kept up for him, because he, perhaps, with his life in his hand, went forth as a pioneer to spread the civilization of Europe and to cultivate the wilds of the world's surface. If he has not done so himself, his father did it before him, and he thinks that the gratitude of the Mother Country should maintain for him the complete ascenden- cy which his superiority to the black man has given him. I feel confi- dent that he will maintain his own ascendency, and think that the Mother Country should take care that the ascendency be not too complete. Anthony Trollope Preliminary Remarks The study of South Africa continues to pose a dilemma to the social scien- tist. Insofar as it owes its present circumstances to the post-feudal move- ment from Northwestern Europe, the movement that "discovered" North and South America, Australia, and the sea-route to India, South Africa is part of the so-called New World. However, unlike the United States, Canada, Australia and New Zealand, i.e., countries that the Europeans claim as part of the West, South Africa remains an African country and therefore part of the Third World.
    [Show full text]
  • The Continued Relevance of Black Liberation Theology for Democratic South Africa Today
    http://scriptura.journals.ac.za/ Scriptura 105 (2010), pp. 532-546 THE CONTINUED RELEVANCE OF BLACK LIBERATION THEOLOGY FOR DEMOCRATIC SOUTH AFRICA TODAY RS Tshaka Systematic Theology & Theological Ethics University of South Africa & MK Makofane Christian Spirituality, Church History & Missiology University of South Africa Abstract Subsequent to the dawn of democracy in South Africa, many have surmised that to speak about Black Liberation Theology in such a context is not only irrelevant but challenges attempts at uniting South Africa. On the contrary, this paper argues that it is reckless to think that Black liberation theology must cease to exist merely because we had attained political freedom. It argues that Apartheid was systemic and had penetrated and influenced many institutions including economic institutions that are still operational in present day South Africa. It laments the fact that Black Liberation Theology did not adequately define the notion of freedom hence the confusion about the role of Black Liberation Theology today. It argues that our new struggle is the struggle for economic freedom and calls for Black Theology to seriously consider who its primary interlocutors are. Key Words: Black Liberation Theology, Economy, Democracy, Black Elite, Apartheid Introduction The changed and changing situation in South Africa has posed significant challenges for the continued relevance of Black Liberation Theology since 1994. One such challenge has been the almost total disappearance of Black Theology from the South African socio-eco- nomic, political and cultural scene. This article will argue that Black Theology seem to be disappearing because the notion of liberation in Black Theology was not exhaustively pro- blematized.
    [Show full text]
  • From Freedom Charter to Cautious Land Reform - the Politics of Land in South Africa
    POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL OF AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT From Freedom Charter to Cautious Land Reform - The Politics of Land in South Africa Ward ANSEEUW & Chris ALDEN Discussion paper No. 2011/1 October 2011 The Politics of Land in south Africa POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL OF AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT From Freedom Charter to Cautious Land Reform - The Politics of Land in South Africa By Ward ANSEEUW & Chris ALDEN Discussion paper No. 2011/1 October 2011 Postgraduate School of Agriculture and Rural Development i The Politics of Land in south Africa Published by the Postgraduate School of Agriculture and Rural Development, University of Pretoria, Pretoria 0002, South Africa. Tel: +27 (0)12 420 3601 Fax: +27 (0)12 420 3206 Email: [email protected] www.up.ac.za/academic/agrirural ISBN: 978-0-620-40776-2 Publication date: October 2011 Cover design: University of Pretoria All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced by any means: electronic, mechanical, by photocopying or otherwise, without prior written permission of the publisher or the authors. Postgraduate School of Agriculture and Rural Development ii The Politics of Land in south Africa Table of contents Lists.................................................................................................................................... iv Foreword............................................................................................................................ vi Abstract............................................................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • South Africa Country Report Lawrence Edwards Wayde Flowerday Neil Rankin N Gareth Roberts G Volker Schöer
    R4D Working Paper 2015/4 South Africa Country Report Lawrence Edwards Wayde Flowerday Neil Rankin N Gareth Roberts G Volker Schöer The aim of this report is to provide an overview of the economic developments and trends in South Africa since the first democratic elections with a focus on the changing structure of production and employment in the South African economy. Against the backdrop of the various policy frameworks implemented by the South African government to affect the quantity and quality of employment, this paper analyses sectoral shifts in production and employment, changes in firm characteristics and overall trends in labour market outcomes. This research received financial support from the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation and the Swiss National Science Foundation under the Swiss Programme for Research on Global Issues for Development. The project “Employment Effects of Different Development Policy Instruments” is based at the World Trade Institute of the University of Bern, Switzerland. Contents 1. Introduction .............................................................................................................................................. 3 2.1 The challenge of 1994 ............................................................................................................................ 4 Table 1: Share of population living in poverty in 1995 (year 2000 prices) ........................................... 4 Table 2: Labour market outcomes in 1995 ..........................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Financial Implications of Converting from Livestock to Game Farming in the Karoo Region, South Africa
    Financial implications of converting from livestock to game farming in the Karoo region, South Africa By Tafadzwa Chiyangwa Thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of AgriSciences at Stellenbosch University Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of AgriSciences Supervisor: Dr Willem Hoffmann March 2018 Stellenbosch University https://scholar.sun.ac.za DECLARATION By submitting this thesis electronically, I declare that the entirety of the work contained therein is my own, original work, that I am the sole author thereof (save to the extent explicitly otherwise stated), that reproduction and publication thereof by Stellenbosch University will not infringe any third party rights and that I have not previously in its entirety or in part submitted it for obtaining any qualification. Date: March 2018 Copyright © 2018 Stellenbosch University All rights reserved Stellenbosch University https://scholar.sun.ac.za ABSTRACT South Africa’s game farming industry is becoming more common and more popular in the country’s agricultural sector. It is one of the geographically growing agriculture subsectors, with an approximate growth rate of between 2 and 2.5% per year on average. Currently, game farming is widely adapted within traditionally extensive cattle and sheep producing areas, where current sheep producers are moving towards game farming practises. This type of farming, is regarded as a lifestyle investment and, because of this; it is largely investors with a large capital who can afford this. Due to the complexity of this type of farming, influenced by the huge initial capital required, interrelationships of biological, physical and economic aspects, and exposure to high risk and uncertainties, game farming is not easy to tap into without a considerable degree of capital.
    [Show full text]
  • The South African Economy: Structural Changes and Implications for the Future."
    The African e-Journals Project has digitized full text of articles of eleven social science and humanities journals. This item is from the digital archive maintained by Michigan State University Library. Find more at: http://digital.lib.msu.edu/projects/africanjournals/ Available through a partnership with Scroll down to read the article. "The South African Economy: Structural Changes and Implications for the Future." Dr. Morley Nkosi Introduction In light of the escalating crisis in South Africa, this conference offers a timely opportunity for us to examine, among other issues, the development and growth of that country's economy since European penetration began almost 334 years ago. The ultimate objective of this historical and analytical survey is to understand the implications the economy holds for future social and political change. Given such an extensive period to deal with, I have selected an approach which will greatly facilitate my task. The 334 years have been divided into historiographically well-established periods in South Africa's literature. These periods are I. The Vereenigde Oostindische Compagnie (V.O.C.) Period, 1652-1795 II. The Transitional Governments' Period, 1795-1814 III. The British Colonial Period, 1814-1910 IV.The South African Period, 1910-1986. A. The Union of South Africa, 1910-1961 B. The Republic of South Africa, 1961-1986 These periods should not be viewed as a simple linear progression of events, one leading to the next, but as qualitatively different phases in the develop- ment of the country's economy. Each phase is influenced by constantly chang- ing political, economic, social and military forces, both internal and exter- nal to the South African formation.
    [Show full text]
  • Apartheid South Africa
    STUDENT PAPER SERIES12 The Malevolent Invisible Hand: Evolving Institutions of Social and Labour Control in Apartheid and Post- Apartheid South Africa Jesse Harber Erasmus Mundus Master’s in Public Policy (Mundus MAPP) Academic year 2012-2013 I hereby certify that this dissertation contains no material which has been accepted for the award of any other degree or diploma in any university or other tertiary institution and, to the best of my knowledge and belief, contains no material previously published or written by another person, except where due reference has been made in the text. I hereby grant to IBEI the non-exclusive license to archive and make accessible my dissertation in whole or in part in all forms of media, now or hereafter known. I retain all ownership rights to the copyright of the dissertation. I also retain the right to use in future works (such as articles or books) all or part of this dissertation. Jesse Harber 12 September 2013, Barcelona [14 118 words] 2 ABSTRACT The advent of democracy in 1994 is often treated as a decisive break in the political economy of South Africa. This paper argues that the introduction of majoritarian democracy was part of a long tail of institutional elaborations beginning in the 1970s, which together constituted a shift from the apartheid to the post-apartheid political economy. Using regulation theory, this paper analyses the apartheid political economy through its institutions of social and labour control: particularly spatial segregation by race and labour migrancy. It then analyses the crisis of the 1970s-1990s and the accompanying institutional shifts to show that rather than dismantling the regime of social control, the post-apartheid regime regulates both the labour market and the spatial order in the exercise of social control.
    [Show full text]
  • The South African Economy
    THE SOUTH AFRICAN ECONOMY What are the macroeconomic prospects for South Africa from 1994 until the new millennium? Two frameworks of macroeco­ nomic modelling, associated with the World Bank and IMF, are used here to generate three scenarios, believed to represent the range of possible future directions of the South African economy. The study demonstrates that there is room for a developmental state, addressing the legacies of Apartheid such as poverty and inequality, within the confines of a stable macroeconomy. Although the scenarios produced may seem specific to South Africa, the methodology outlined is just as applicable to the policy­ making process elsewhere. The IMF's Financial Programming and the World Bank's Revised Minimum Standard Model were central to many macroeconomic management studies of the 1980s, which focused on stabilization and structural adjustment. This study shows for the first time how they can be quantitatively applied and illustrates their strengths and weaknesses. Therefore, this volume can serve as a textbook in development economics courses. Moreover, the modelling skills acquired from this book will be equally relevant to those studying macroeconomic development and to government and aid practitioners involved in policy work. Finn Tarp is currently Associate Professor at the Institute of Economics at the University of Copenhagen. Formerly with the United Nations, he worked as an economist for almost a decade in Southern Africa. Peter Brixen is an Economist at the Danish Economic Council and has worked extensively on applied general equilibrium models and development economics. Routledge Studies in Development Economics 1. Economic Development in the Middle East Rodnry Wilson 2.
    [Show full text]