The Region in Review: International Issues and Events, I992 At a time of dramatic change in global sia, had not been involved economi­ strategic and economic structures, it cally or diplomatically in the islands to might be expected that the important any significant degree. The only excep­ international issues and events of con­ tions were the one-off fisheries agree­ cern to the Pacific Islands in 1992 ments with Kiribati and Vanuatu, occurred outside, rather than inside, which were discontinued for economic the region. The list ofpotentially sig­ reasons before the end of the nificant developments was endless: the Cold War. continuing strategic shakeout after the The more interesting involvement to end of the Cold War; the withdrawal of watch was that ofWestern countries on the United States military from the whose economic assistance the island Philippines; moves toward free trade states depend. According to conven­ areas in the Association of Southeast tional wisdom, such aid is in danger of Asian Nations (ASEAN) and North falling below its Cold War levels now America (North American Free Trade that strategic concerns are no longer Agreement, NAFTA); developments in present, and as aid funds are diverted Asia-Pacific economic cooperation; to the former Soviet Union and Eastern increased pessimism over the outcome Europe (see eg, Herr 1993; Elek 1992, of the General Agreement on Tariffs 2; Callick 1991). Developments in 1992 and Trade (GATT); changes within the support the view that the Pacific European Community; and continuing Islands no longer grab the attention recession in the West. These develop­ they did during the Cold War, when ments, far from determining affairs in foreign leaders frequently visited island the Pacific, formed only one element in capitals, and political developments in a more complex equation. As in the the islands could be front-page news in past, developments in regional rela­ Paris, Canberra, Washington, and tions, and in relations between the London. Nevertheless, outside powers region and the outside world, derived retained an interest in influencing as much from political and social island affairs. In this sense it is "busi­ change within island societies as from ness as usual," except the business is outside factors. now generally handled by desk officers rather than foreign ministers. No CHANGING GLOBAL CONTEXT reduction in economic assistance to the One striking reflection of the changing region is evident. Even New Zealand, global strategic context was the declin­ whose economic stringency has dic­ ing interest in the region by Russia, tated a 3 percent reduction in the total which during the year closed its aid budget for 1992-93, will slightly embassy in Port Moresby-its only increase its assistance to the Pacific diplomatic presence in the region. The Islands (McKinnon 1992). effect was negligible, because the French involvement was no excep­ Soviet Union, and subsequently Rus- tion to this general trend. France's 39° POLITICAL REVIEWS 391 commitment to influencing regional Islands, which, despite teething prob­ affairs seemed unaffected by the end of lems, aims to promote American the Cold War. A policy of integrating investment in the region and greater French territories into regional affairs, access for island products to the United financially supporting various regional States market. It will be based at the programs, and cultivating a less con­ East-West Center in Hawai'i, and will frontational image was pursued vigor­ be responsible to the Pacific Islands ously and with considerable success. Conference, the governing body of the However, the end of the Cold War did Pacific Islands Development Program. create the necessary conditions for a On the Pacific rim, the withdrawal of dramatic departure in French nuclear­ the United States military from Clark testing policy. In April, the socialist Field and Subic Bay in the Philippines government in Paris suspended testing does not reflect a reduction of strategic at Moruroa and in January 1993 interest in the area. The United States announced that the suspension would moved during the year to develop a continue as long as the other major more flexible and mobile approach to nuclear powers did not resume their its Pacific presence, focusing on access tests. This decision, greeted with great for its ships and planes and pre-posi­ enthusiasm in the Pacific (except in the tioned materiel in Southeast Asia, and test-dependent economy ofPape'ete), building up support bases on Guam was made for domestic political rea­ (/DW, 12 Dec 1992, 40). sons (Mitterrand's socialists were los­ China and Taiwan continued to ing ground to the French greens). spar for the allegiance of Pacific Island Although it is not therefore to be seen states. In a move that greatly angered as a response to the end ofEast-West Beijing, the Honiara meeting of the rivalry, it was a policy shift that would South Pacific Forum in July agreed to have been unimaginable without such institute a regular dialogue with Tai­ change. wan. This decision reflected the The United States renewed its fish­ increasing support for Taiwan among eries treaty with the Forum island island states, with Nauru, Tonga, and states, guaranteeing payment of Solomon Islands having already for­ us$180 million over the next ten years. mally recognized Taiwan. Others, such The earlier treaty was widely inter­ as Fiji and Papua New Guinea, have preted as a product of US Cold War close informal relations. The new concerns, an attempt to alter the image Vanuatu government, although not yet that the United States was riding granting formal recognition-notwith­ roughshod over island economic inter­ standing a statement by Foreign Minis­ ests while the Soviet Union was willing ter Serge Vohor to the contrary­ to pay for fishing access. The new moved much closer to Taipei than its treaty is an interesting signal of a con­ predecessor. In August, for example, tinuing commitment after the end of Taiwan sponsored Prime Minister the Cold War. The United States also Maxime Carlot Korman's trip to Buda­ moved to activate the Joint Commer­ pest to attend a meeting ofthe World cial Commission with the Pacific Anti-Communist League. 392 THE CONTEMPORARY PACIFIC· FALL 1993 The changing global trading regime REGIONAL RELATIONS and the increasing regionalization of approaches to economic matters The institutional framework within caught the attention of Pacific Island which multilateral relations are con­ policymakers during the year. They ducted appears to have received further were generally keen to be part of any endorsement during 1992. There is a Asia-Pacific regional developments, to rough division oflabor between the take action to mitigate the effects on South Pacific Commission (spc), the their current trade of the move to lower Pacific Islands' Development Program, tariffs in Australia (which will dilute the University ofthe South Pacific, the the margin ofpreference for island Forum Fisheries Agency, the South products under the South Pacific Pacific Applied Geoscience Commis­ Regional Trade and Commercial sion, the South Pacific Regional Envi­ Agreement), and to consider the possi­ ronmental Programme (SPREP), and the ble impact of free trade area develop­ Forum Secretariat. Their respective ments in ASEAN and North America, efforts are harmonized through a South and of a single integrated market in Pacific Organizations Coordinating Europe. More generally, they were Committee. Far from being affected by concerned, as were other trade-depen­ a post-Cold War redirection of funds, dent small players outside major blocs, this network continued to attract suffi­ with the discussions in GATT which cient financial assistance for moderate suggested that world trade might move growth. The coordination committee toward more, rather than less, protec­ also took bolder steps to rationalize tionism. But none of these develop­ regional strategies and appeared to ments affected Pacific Islands trade in gain more legitimacy as the hub of the 1992. It is simply too early to say what regional institutional network. impact they might have. The increased acceptance of these Other factors may have more dele­ arrangements was reflected in the terious effects on the export-dependent absence from regional debate of any future now being mapped for island significant support for the alternative economies. A central concern will be approaches that had dominated delib­ how to remain competitive with pro­ erations for at least a decade: the possi­ duction in China and Southeast Asia. bility ofmerging the South Pacific At what point will the off-shore capital Commission with the Forum, or of attracted to island export zones move strengthening the commission to the on to Asian countries? The opening to point ofcompeting with the Forum the world market of mineral resources network in some ofthe same functional in the former Soviet Union may have areas. implications for the attractiveness of The most significant institutional exploiting the resources ofPapua New development was the successful estab­ Guinea, especially if that might involve lishment of the South Pacific Regional such difficulties as have been experi­ Environmental Programme in Apia enced in Bougainville. despite the constraints imposed by POLITICAL REVIEWS 393 the severe impact of Cyclone Val on foreign criminals, money laundering, Western Samoa, and the inordinate terrorism, and extradition (SPF 1992). demands posed by preparations for the The third major institutional devel­ region's participation in June in the opment in 1992 was the formation of a United Nations Conference on Envi­ grouping of Smaller Island States, com­ ronment and Development in Rio. The prising Cook Islands, Kiribati, Tuvalu, environmental program began the year Nauru, and Niue. The outcome ofthe as a unit in SPC headquarters in first summit meeting ofprime ministers Noumea; by December it was installed and presidents, held in Rarotonga in in Apia as a distinct regional institution January, suggests that the group with about forty staff.