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Iowa Gaming Market Analysis

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Iowa Racing and Gaming Commission An Analysis of Gaming Markets in Iowa October 2017 q 1 Table of Contents Project Overview ............................................................................................................... 3 Purpose ............................................................................................................................... 3 Executive Summary .......................................................................................................... 5 Projected admission and adjusted gross revenue (Five Years) ............................... 16 Projected impact on existing licensees ....................................................................... 37 Projected Percentage of Out-Of-State Patronage ................................................... 42 Forecast for a 10%, 25%, and 50% Increase In Gaming Positions From Any Application Submitted ................................................................................................... 45 Currently Underserved or Underperforming Markets Statewide ............................. 48 Prior Projections Iowa Study Projections ...................................................................... 50 Tourism Impact And Creation of New Economic Development ............................ 58 Submitted Proposals ....................................................................................................... 61 Cedar Rapids on the River ....................................................................................................61 Cedar Rapids Central ............................................................................................................63 Cedar Rapids Central ............................................................................................................65 Current Casino Industry Background .....................................................................................70 Iowa Demographics ....................................................................................................... 72 Tourism .............................................................................................................................. 86 WhiteSand Methodology ............................................................................................... 90 Appendix .......................................................................................................................... 94 Iowa Casino Revenue .................................................................................................... 97 Gaming Market Demographics ................................................................................. 139 History of Iowa Gaming ................................................................................................ 143 Iowa Casino and Card Room Gaming ................................................................................. 151 Iowa Charitable Gaming ...................................................................................................... 153 Iowa Lotteries ...................................................................................................................... 153 Iowa Race and Sports Wagering ......................................................................................... 154 Iowa Tribal Gaming ............................................................................................................. 155 Iowa Gaming Timeline......................................................................................................... 156 2 Project Overview Purpose The purpose of this project is to conduct a market analysis on gaming in the State of Iowa. The study focuses on identifying underserved and currently served, but underperforming, markets statewide; and an assessment of the applications that have been submitted. The Racing and Gaming Commission oversees the regulation of gaming in the state of Iowa pursuant to Iowa Code Chapter 99F. WhiteSand has conducted a market analysis on gaming in the State of Iowa. The study focuses on identifying underserved markets statewide, and currently served, but underperforming markets statewide. The study will also include an assessment of any applications submitted. Both the statewide assessment and targeted assessment (if applications are received) shall include the factors listed below. In addition, the factors for the targeted assessment should consider the scope and location from the applications. All points in this section shall be included in the final report due to the Commission. • Projected admission and adjusted gross revenue • Projected impact on existing licensees • Projected percentage of out-of-state patronage (i.e. out-of-state: residents, tourism, business, etc.) and in-state patronage not served by an existing licensee (i.e. new in-state: underserved residents, business, tourism, etc.) • For the targeted Linn County assessment, Vendor should provide a forecast for a 10%, 25%, and 50% increase in gaming positions from any application submitted. This forecast shall include projected AGR and impact on existing licenses. • An economic forecast for Iowa casinos for the next 3 years – include admissions and revenues • Provide data and statement addressing if there are currently underserved or underperforming markets statewide • If applicable, provide information pertaining to prior work/ projections done in Iowa explaining how accurate prior projections were • Provide personal income and discretionary income in identified markets – compare to other markets in Iowa and cite the effect on admissions and revenue • Projected impact on tourism and creation of new economic development • Report to be completed by October 1, 2017 • Presentation by vendor at the October 2017, IRGC Commission Meeting (date of this meeting will be known by April 13, 2017) WhiteSand has approached this task using a formal methodology to review market demand in and around the region. We reviewed the specific demographics and other attributes of the competitive market. This included, but was not limited to, population, income levels, age distribution, and nearby competition. We evaluated these factors within ranges of 30, 60, and 90 miles of downtown Cedar Rapids. To provide a consistent measurement of demographics within a specific region we use distance radii from the region. Using distance rather than driving time eliminates fluctuations due to drive times, day of week, unpredictable events (e.g., accidents, weather, etc.) and other factors. Distance radii are translatable to drive times in most scenarios and provide more consistent results due to the reduction of unpredictability. 3 We have also addressed factors such as: • State, Regional and local demographics, including population, income, age and business and economic growth. • The effect of tourism and business travel, specific to Linn County and greater Cedar Rapids. 4 Executive Summary In conducting this study WhiteSand did look at each commercial property and its corresponding market. We paid attention to the current licensees we identified as at risk of losing current revenue based on the issuing of a gaming license to a new property in Cedar Rapids. In addition, we addressed each of the following areas. • Projected admission and adjusted gross revenue – WhiteSand used multiple proprietary models to review each of the commercial gaming properties in Iowa and their markets to forecast revenues and admissions and then rolled that up to the overall state projections. • Projected impact on existing licensees – Based on the proposed size of the facilities and promised amenities, we did identify several existing licenses we believe will be impacted by a new license in Cedar Rapids. • Projected percentage of out-of-state patronage and in-state patronage not served by an existing licensee – As the second largest city in Iowa, there is significant business as well as tourist travel to the area. We identified “induced” demand a small amount of “new” instate business and a level of increased gaming based on the closer proximity. • Forecast a 10%, 25%, and 50% increase in gaming positions – For each application, using our models, we built forecasts showing projected gaming revenue based on each level of increase and show the impact on existing licenses. • Economic forecast for Iowa casinos for the next 3 years – Using individual current licensee performance data we forecasted admissions and revenues for each commercial property and the overall state admissions and revenues. • Address if there are currently underserved or underperforming markets in Iowa – During our analysis, we did look for markets which were either underperforming based on regional demographics or a market that would benefit from additional gaming positions. • Information pertaining to prior work/ projections done in Iowa explaining how accurate prior projections were – We looked at the most recent relevant reports and the level of accuracy. • Personal income and discretionary income in identified markets – We identified the level of discretionary income for each gaming market in Iowa based, on Per Capita and Household income, and compared the markets based on population and gaming revenue in the market. 5 • Projected impact on tourism and creation of new economic development – We looked at any incremental tourism and anticipated froth in economic development based on the addition of a casino in Linn County. At over twenty-six years old, Iowa is a mature and stable market. All
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