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SBP April 2019 Poll Report

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SBP April 2019 Poll Report General Election & Attitudes Towards Brexit Opinion Poll April 2019 Methodology and Weighting / RED C interviewed a random sample of 1000 adults aged 18+ by telephone between the 11th - 17th April 2019. / A random digit dial (RDD) method is used to ensure a random selection process of households to be included – this also ensures that ex-directory households are covered. / Half of the sample are interviewed using an RDD landline sample, with the other half conducted using an RDD mobile phone sample, this ensures 98% coverage of the population reaching landline only households, mobile only households and those with both a landline and a mobile. / Interviews were conducted across the country and the results weighted to the profile of all adults. A further past vote weighting is included that takes the recall for how people voted at the last election, compares this to the actual results and weights the data between the two. / Vote intention results are weighted based on turnout, including both how likely each respondent is to actually go and vote on a 10 point scale, where 1 is not at all likely and 10 is very likely, as well as whether or not they voted in the last general election. / In all respects the poll was completed to the opinion polling guidelines set out by both ESOMAR and AIMRO. 2 General Election First Preference Vote Intention – 21st April 2019 If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your first preference vote to? (Past vote weighted) (Base: All adults 18+ who will vote) Fine Gael 33% +2 Ind. Alliance 2% -1 Fianna Fáil 23% -2 Sinn Féin 14% +1 Labour 5% = Ind. Candidates 16% +1 Solidarity- Social Renua Aontú PBP Democrats Green Undecided Voters >1% = 1% +1 1% -1 2% -1 3% = 15% 4 First Preference Vote Intention Intention Vote Preference First (Base: All adults 18+ 18+ adults vote) (Base: All who will If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your first preference v first preference your would give you think you do candidate tomorrow or independent was which election party general If the 33% Gael Fine 26% 32% 31% 31% 33% 23% Fáil Fianna 24% 22% 24% 25% 23% 14% Féin Sinn 14% 13% 18% 13% 14% 16% Candidate Ind. 13% 14% 15% 15% 16% 5% Labour 7% 6% – 5% April ‘19 5% 5% 2% Alliance Ind. 4% 5% 2% 3% 2% 1% - Solidarity 4% PBP 2% 1% 2% ote 1% to? (Past vote weighted)c (Past to? 2% Democrats Social 3% 2% 2% 3% 2% 3% Green 3% 3% 2% 3% 3% >1% Renua 2% 0% Election 0% 2016 0% <1% 27 Jan 1 Aontú th % 24th Feb 31st <1% Mar <1% 1% 21st Apr 5 Party Preference X Demographics Caution: Low base sizes among some If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your first preference vote to? (Past vote weighted)c demographics, resulting in greater margin of error. Margin of Error as high as +/- 8% in some instances. Gender Age Social Class Region Rest of Conn/ Total Male Female 18-34 35-54 55 ABC1 C2DE Dublin Leinster Munster Uster Fianna Fáil 23% 21% 24% 12% 19% 32% 23% 21% 12% 29% 28% 21% Fine Gael 33% 36% 30% 38% 31% 34% 34% 31% 37% 34% 23% 41% Labour 5% 4% 5% 5% 3% 6% 4% 4% 6% 5% 4% 2% Sinn Fein 14% 15% 13% 19% 17% 8% 12% 17% 13% 12% 20% 10% The Green Party 3% 2% 4% 3% 4% 2% 2% 4% 6% 2% 3% 2% Independent Alliance Candidate 2% 2% 2% 1% 3% 3% 3% 2% 4% 1% 2% 1% Solidarity- People Before Profit 1% 0 2% 2% 1% * 2% 0 * 3% 0 * Other Independent Candidate 16% 13% 18% 18% 17% 13% 15% 18% 14% 11% 18% 23% Renua * 1% 0 1% * 0 * 0 0 1% 0 0 Social Democrats 2% 3% 2% 1% 4% * 3% 2% 5% 2% 1% 0 Aontú (February 2019) 1% 2% 0 0 1% 1% 2% * 2% * 1% 0 Other Party * 1% * 0 0 1% 0 1% 1% 0 0 0 6 First Preference Vote Intention – Since GE 2016 If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your first preference vote to? (Past vote weighted) (Base: All adults 18+ who will vote ) 35% Confidence and Leo Varadkar 33% supply agreement becomes leader of reached FG and Taoiseach 30% Fine Gael 25% Fianna Fáil 23% 20% Sinn Féin 16% 15% Independent 14% Labour Ind Alliance 10% Solidarity-PBP Green Party 5% Social Democrats 5% 3% Renua 2% Aontú 1% 0% >1% GE 2016 May-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 July '17 Oct '17 Jan '18 Mar '18 May '18 Oct '18 Jan '19 Mar '19 Other 7 First Preference Vote Intention – 2012-2019 If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your first preference vote to? (Past vote weighted) (Base: All adults 18+ who will vote ) 40% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 35% Fine Gael 33% 30% Labour 25% 23% Fianna Fáil 20% Sinn Féin Independent 15% Solidarity-PBP 16% 14% Ind Alliance 10% Green Party Social Democrats 5% 5% Renua 3% 2% Aontú 1% 0% >1% Other Note; From GE 2016 Onwards, ‘Independents/Others’ split out to show Solidarity-PBP, Social Democrats & Renua separately 8 First Preference Vote Intention – 2009 to 2019 If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your first preference vote to? (Past vote weighted) (Base: All adults 18+ who will vote ) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 45% Fianna Fáil 40% 35% 33% 30% Fine Gael 25% Labour 23% Independent 20% Sinn Féin 16% Ind Alliance 15% 14% Solidarity-PBP Green Party 10% Social Democrats 5% Renua 5% 3% 2% Aontú 1% 0% >1% Other Note; From GE 2016 Onwards, ‘Independents/Others’ split out to show Solidarity-PBP, Social Democrats & Renua separately 9 Local and European Elections 10 Likelihood to Vote In Local Elections Firstly, can you tell me how likely you would be to vote in the local elections in May using a ten point scale where one means you think you will definitely not vote, and 10 means you will be absolutely certain to vote. Region (Base: All Irish Voters; n=1000) Gender Age Social Class REST OF TOTAL MALE FEMALE 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F DUBLIN LEINSTER MUNSTER CONN/ULSTER 59% 65% 68% NET: 8-10 74% 74% 75% 76% 79% 78% 76% 79% 78% 84% 22% 13% 15% NET: 4-7 14% 12% 15% 15% 11% 12% 14% 9% 10% 22% 16% 19% 17% 11% 12% 11% 10% 10% 11% 10% 13% NET: 1-3 6% 5% 11 Likelihood to Vote In European Elections Firstly, can you tell me how likely you would be to vote in the European elections in May using a ten point scale where one means you think you will definitely not vote, and 10 means you will be absolutely certain to vote. (Base: All Irish Voters; n=1000) Region Gender Age Social Class REST OF TOTAL MALE FEMALE 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F DUBLIN LEINSTER MUNSTER CONN/ULSTER 55% 57% NET: 8-10 69% 69% 69% 67% 65% 72% 74% 71% 70% 70% 79% 22% 21% 16% 18% NET: 4-7 17% 16% 18% 15% 16% 16% 14% 21% 13% 23% 22% 19% NET: 1-3 14% 15% 13% 15% 14% 14% 12% 8% 12% 9% 12 First Preference Vote Intention – General vs. Local and European If the general election/ European election & local election were tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your first preference vote to? (Past vote weighted) (Base: All adults 18+ who will vote) GE EE LE 35% 33% 33% 30% 27% 25% 23% 21% 21% 20% 20% 18% 16% 16% 15% 15% 14% 10% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 5% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% >1% >1% >1% >1% >1% >1% >1% >1% 0% Fine Fianna Sinn Ind. Labour Ind. Solidarity Renua Social Green Aontu Other Gael Fáil Féin Candidate Alliance -PBP >1% Democrats Undecided Voters 20% 13 .
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