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Opinion Poll Report January 2021

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Opinion Poll Report January 2021 Opinion Poll Report January 2021 JN. 493621 Methodology and Weighting The highest online research quality standards in the industry • RED C interviewed a random sample of 1000 adults Sample is drawn by RED C’s own online Pre-Screening aged 18+ online between Thursday 21st and All respondents are pre-screened Thursday 28th January panel, RED C Live, that consists of over 40,000 participants, recruited from online and invited to take part in the survey based on the information • A online approach was used, among our bespoke and offline means. held on them in the panel. online panel RED C Live. RED C are proud to have such a high Invites quality resource in the market place Panelists are recruited for surveys a • Interviews are conducted across the country and the ✓ Unlike most generic panels, our maximum of 3 times per month for results weighted to the profile of all adults. ad hoc projects and once every 3 panellist are given fair reward for months for tracker surveys. their time helping to ensure the • Panellists were chosen at random to complete the highest levels of engagement and Fair Reward We pay respondents €1 for every 5 poll, with quotas set and weights allocated on age, quality of response across our minutes of survey completion, much gender, class, region, education level & working surveys. higher than the market rate status to ensure a nationally representative sample. ✓ The RED C Live panel is fully owned Logic Traps by RED C. This ensures that panel We have inbuilt logic questions and • A further past vote quota and weight is included that members are not over-interviewed, failures at these questions are looks at how people on our panel voted at the last enabling us to provide the highest rejected. election (gathered at the time) and controls this to quality standards to our clients. Time Delays ensure it matches the actual results. ✓ RED C uses a number of quota All surveys have in-built time delays controls outside of age, gender and from the appearance of questions • In all respects the poll was completed to the opinion to the presentation of response class, to ensure accuracy – options. polling guidelines set out by both ESOMAR and including past vote behaviour, AIMRO. working status, & education. The move to online polling Testing during Election 2020 shows accuracy Final Online Poll Test During GE 2020 RED C were delighted with the accuracy of our polling for the Business Post at the recent General Election 2020. The accuracy of our polls underlines the quality of our offering. During the campaign we conducted 4 polls in total, two that were run on our telephone omnibus and published in the Business Post on the 26th January and the 2nd February, while we also conducted two further polls online using our RED Line omnibus service. The online polls were run in order to for us to test how accurately we could predict the result of the Election using an online approach, which is very commonly used in other countries such as the UK. The results of these online polling tests were also highly successful, with an average error of 0.80%, at a similar level to the exit poll which had 5000 interviews conducted on the day. These results back up the quality credentials both of the RED C Live online panel generally, and also of the RED C sampling and quality control team tasked with ensuring we reach a representative sample through that panel. It has proved that we can, with our expert knowledge of the political landscape in Ireland and our strict quality controls, utilise a more cost effective and flexible online approach for polling moving forward. Based on the success of these tests we have moved our regular tracking polls to a more cost effective online approach each month to measure trends in voters support for parties, with possible supplementary telephone polls where required. 3 01 Vote Intention @ General Election 4 First preference vote intention – 31st January 2021 With change vs. last poll – Nov 2020 Fine Gael 29% -4 Sinn Féin 27% -3 Fianna Fáil 16% +4 Ind. Candidates Green Social Labour Solidarity- Democrats PBP Aontú Undecided Voters 10% +2 5% = 5% +1 3% = 3% = 2% = 14% -1 Q. If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your first preference vote to? (Past vote weighted) 5 (Base: All adults 18+ who will vote) (Base: All adults 18+ who will vote) willwho (Base: 18+ All adults give your first you would preference you think vote to? (Past vote weighted) If Q. general theelection candidate do tomorrow partywas or independent which First preference vote intention vote preference First Shown over time and vs. last General Election Results Election General last vs. and time over Shown 29% Gael Fine 21% 35% 37% 33% 29% 27% Féin Sinn 25% 27% 27% 30% 27% 16% Fáil Fianna 22% 10% 11% 12% 16% 10% Candidate Ind. 12% 10% 8% 8% 10% 5% Green 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 3% 5% Democrats Social 4% 3% 2020 GE 4% 5% 4% 3% Labour Sep 13 3% th Oct 3% 25 th Nov 3% 29 3% th 3% 3% - Solidarity PBP Jan 2% 31 st 2% 3% 3% 2% 2% Aontú 2% 2% 2% 2% 6 First preference vote intention x demographics Note: Results on sub sample of the population are based on a much smaller sample size per group, and as such have a much higher margin of error. The results should therefore be treated with caution 29th November 2020 Gender Age Social Class Region Rest of Conn/ Total Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE Dublin Leinster Munster Ulster Fine Gael 29% 30% 29% 23% 25% 38% 34% 23% 29% 37% 19% 34% Sinn Féin 27% 25% 28% 31% 32% 19% 22% 34% 23% 23% 31% 31% Fianna Fáil 16% 17% 14% 15% 12% 20% 16% 14% 15% 17% 18% 12% An Independent Candidate 10% 8% 13% 6% 14% 10% 7% 13% 9% 6% 14% 12% Green Party 5% 6% 5% 7% 6% 3% 6% 4% 7% 4% 6% 3% Social Democrats 5% 5% 5% 10% 4% 2% 7% 4% 6% 5% 4% 4% Labour Party 3% 3% 2% 1% 3% 4% 2% 4% 4% 3% 3% 0 Solidarity/ People Before Profit 3% 3% 2% 5% 2% 2% 3% 3% 4% 3% 2% 2% (including Rise) Aontú 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 3% 2% (Base: All adults 18+ who will vote) Q. If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your 7 first preference vote to? (Past vote weighted) Social Democrats Social First preference vote intention intention vote preference First (Base: (Base: All adults 18+ who will vote) you would give your first preference to? vote (Past weighted) vote Q. If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think Solidarity Independent Green Party Green Fianna Fáil Fianna Fine Gael Fine Sinn Labour Aontú - Féin PBP 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 0% 5% GE 2016 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 July '17 Sep '17 Oct '17 Nov '17 Jan '18 – Feb '18 2016 GE since Mar '18 Apr '18 May '18 Sep '18 Oct '18 Nov '18 Jan '19 Feb '19 Mar '19 Apr '19 May '19 Sept '19 Oct '19 Nov '19 Jan '20 Feb '20 GE2020 Mar '20 Apr '20 May '20 Aug '20 Oct '20 Nov '20 Jan '21 2% 3% 16% 27% 29% 10% 5% 8 First preference vote intention – 2005 to 2020 Note; From GE 2016 Onwards, ‘Independents/Others’ split out to show Solidarity-PBP, Social Democrats, Aontu, Renua separately Fine Gael Fianna Fail Sinn Fein Independents Labour AAA-PBP SD Green Party Renua Other Aontú 45% 40% 35% 30% 29% 27% 25% 20% 16% 15% 10% 10% 5% 5% 3% 0% 2% Q. If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your first preference vote to? (Past vote weighted) 9 (Base: All adults 18+ who will vote) 02 Voter Attitudes 10 Voter Attitudes Towards Vaccines for COVID-19 People travelling to Ireland should have to quarantine in a hotel at Pubs and restaurants their own expense for 14 I would take the current should not be re-opened The government is doing a days (as happens in and new Covid vaccines, until most of the Schools should re-open in good job at rolling out Australia) to reduce the if they are shown to be population have been February if cases continue to vaccines as quickly as risk of Covid-transmission safe and effective vaccinated decline at the current rates possible 2% 3% 4% 6% 7% 12% 12% 26% 86% 85% 70% 38% 56% 46% 47% Agree Disagree D/K Agree Disagree D/K Agree Disagree D/K Agree Disagree D/K Agree Disagree D/K (Base: All adults 18+ who will vote) 11 Now please let us know to what extent you agree or disagree with each of the following statements about topics that have recently been in the news. Voter Attitudes Towards Vaccines and Rules Measured on a 5 point scale. People travelling to Ireland should have to quarantine in a hotel at I would take the current Pubs and restaurants should NET their own expense for 14 days (as NET NET and new Covid vaccines, if NET NET not be re-opened until most NET AGREE happens in Australia) to reduce DISAGREE AGREE they are shown to be safe DISAGREE AGREE of the population have been DISAGREE 86% the risk of Covid-transmission 12% 85% and effective 12% 70% vaccinated 26% Agree strongly Agree slightly Agree strongly Agree slightly Agree 27% 73% Agree slightly 70% strongly Disagree slightly 15% Disagree slightly 43% 14% 13% Disagree slightly Disagree strongly 5% Disagree strongly 5% Disagree strongly 12% 7% Don’t know 7% Don’t know Don’t 2% 3% 4% know NET Schools should re-open in NET NET The government is doing a NET AGREE February if cases continue to DISAGREE AGREE good job at rolling out DISAGREE 56% decline at the current rates 38% 46% vaccines as quickly as possible 47% Agree slightly Disagree slightly Disagree slightly Agree slightly 27% 19% 25% Disagree strongly 33% Disagree strongly Agree strongly 19% 22% 29% Agree strongly 6% Don’t know 13% 7% Don’t know (Base: All adults 18+ who will vote) 12 Now please let us know to what extent you agree or disagree with each of the following statements about topics that have recently been in the news.
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