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SYDNEY 1Group.Com.Au from the DIRECTORS PROPERTY MARKET OVERVIEW SYDNEY 1group.com.au FROM THE DIRECTORS The Sydney residential property market remains the strongest overall in the country, with strong residual growth in both houses and units and the highest median house values of any market in Australia. After several years of slow or negative growth, the Sydney market grew strongly in 2020. While market values have declined slightly in the first six months of 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic induced economic recession, overall residential property values have still increased by 13.3 per cent compared to June 2019. Owner occupied driven purchasers out in force, and anecdotal evidence on the ground is showing us reserve prices being blown out by 15-25% in some areas . The office and industrial sectors have also boomed in the past year. However, in common with the rest of the country, the retail asset market has declined markedly in recent years and has suffered more strongly than any other sector since the outbreak of COVID-19. However in a perfect example of markets within markets tightly held retail strips particularly in affluent communities are attracting significant premiums. We believe any negative impacts on the residential market brought on by COVID-19 will most likely be felt in high density housing and mortgage belt communities. The office market also faces uncertainty over the coming years given the shift towards off site work which has been embraced by many albeit without choice. Key research findings: • The NSW economy is the largest and strongest performing economy in the country. The Gross State Product (GSP) of NSW increased by 2.09 per cent in the financial year ended June 2019, with a total GSP of $595.7 billion per annum, up nearly $12.2 billion on the previous year. • The Sydney metro region accounted for 77 per cent of NSW’s economic performance, with a total Gross Regional Product (GRP) growth rate of 2.6 per cent for the year ended June 2019 and a total GRP of $461.4 billion, up $18.3 billion on the previous year. The City of Sydney local government area accounted for a significant 28.2 per cent of the metro area’s GRP, with an annual growth rate of 4 per cent and a total GRP of $130.1 billion, up nearly $4.5 billion on the previous year. • Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) show that NSW’s State Final Demand grew by 1.6 per cent in the year to December 2019, a year on year decline of 0.2 per cent. However, the State Final Demand contracted by 1.6 per cent in the first quarter of March 2020 as the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic started to bite. This result was on the back of a reduction in household consumption (down 1.6 per cent in the March quarter) and falls in new building construction (down 11.4 per cent), new engineering construction (down 12 per cent) and new dwelling investment (down 4.5 per cent). The reductions were partly offset by a 1.8 per cent increase in government consumption as a result of increased expenditure due to the bushfires and COVID-19 pandemic. 2 Sydney Market Update FROM THE DIRECTORS (cont.) • The COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent lock-down has already resulted in significant increase in the unemployment rate. In January 2020, unemployment in NSW stood at 4.5 per cent, a modest increase on the 3.9 per cent rate recorded a year previously. However, the rate increased markedly in the space of just four months to stand at 6.4 per cent in May 2020, with the likelihood that this will continue to increase in coming months. • The COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent lock-down means the economy will likely experience subdued growth and significantly increased unemployment during 2020. The economic recession resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic has already impacted the rental market and short term property sales, but the long term effect of the pandemic induced recession on the property market will depend on how quickly the Australian economy takes to recover. • While the COVID-19 induced economic recession is causing economic and social stress, Sydney’s property market remains in strong health overall. Thanks to the combination of massive infrastructure spending, low interest rates, historically strong property growth rates and the largest and most diverse state and city economy in Australia, Sydney’s property market is well placed to recover quickly once the COVID-19 pandemic induced recession ends. Tal Eloss Director 1Group Property Advisory Julian Muldoon Director 1Group Property Advisory 4 Sydney Market Update KEY STATS 2019/20 2018/29 Change NSW Gross State Product (growth 2.09% 2.51% -0.42% rate) (Jun 30, 2019) (Jun 30, 2018) NSW Gross State Product (total $595.7b $583.5b +$12.2b value - billions) (Jun 30, 2019) (Jun 30, 2018) Sydney Metro Gross Regional 2.6% 3.1% -0.5% Product (growth rate) (Jun 30, 2019) (Jun 30, 2019) Sydney Metro Gross Regional $461.4b $443.1b +18.3b Product (total value – billions) (Jun 30, 2019) (Jun 30, 2018) City of Sydney Gross Regional 3.56% 4.44% -0.88% Product (growth rate) (Jun 30, 2019) (Jun 30, 2018) City of Sydney Gross Regional $130.1b $125.6b +$4.5b Product (total value - billion) Sydney Population 4,926,000 4,859,000 +1.38% Unemployment 6.4% 4.5% +1.9% (May 2020) (May 2019) 4.5% (Jan 3.9% (Jan 2019) +0.6% 2020) NSW State Final Demand (total $157.6b $153b +$4.6b value) (Dec 2019) (Dec 2018) $155.6b $154.5b +$1.1b (Mar 2020) (Mar 2019) NSW State Final Demand 1.6% 1.8% -0.2% (percentage change) (Dec 2019) (Dec 2018) -1.5% 1.6% (March 2020) (Dec 2019) -1.1% 6 Sydney Market Update KEY POINTS 1. Sydney continues to have the country’s strongest housing and unit markets, with strong residuals, the highest median prices in the country and 13.3 per cent annual growth for the twelve months to June 2020 despite recent modest declines due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2. Sydney experienced a population growth of 1.3 per cent in the year to December 2019. 3. The NSW State Final Demand grew by 1.6 per cent to December 2019, but experienced a 1.5 per cent contraction in the March 2020 quarter due to the early effects of the COVID-19 pandemic induced economic recession. 4. The total value of the NSW State Demand was $157.6 billion in December 2019, but had reduced to $155.6 billion as the initial effects of COVID-19 shut downs on the economy were felt. 5. Gross State Product (GSP) of NSW increased by 2.09 per cent in the financial year ended June 2019, with a total GSP of $595.7 billion per annum, up $12.2 billion on the previous year. 6. The City of Sydney itself had a Gross Regional Product (GRP) rate of 3.56 per cent for the year ended June 2019, with a total GRP of $130.1 billion, up nearly $4.5 billion on the previous year. 7. However a combination of the bushfires at the start of 2020 and the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent lock-down means the economy is experiencing more subdued growth and significantly increased unemployment during 2020. Sources: ABS, Macrotrends, NSW Treasury, populationstat.com, SGS Economics 7 Sydney Market Update MAJOR PROJECTS The NSW State Government and the Australian Federal Government are investing $79.3 billion in infrastructure projects, including: 1. A total of $31.6 billion to fund the Sydney Metro. Sydney Metro is Australia’s largest public transport infrastructure project and will include four metro lines. The first two lines of the Sydney Metro are due to be completed by 2024 and will include 31 metro stations and 66 kilometres of new metro rail lines linking Tallawong in the Northwest with Bankstown in the Southwest. a) The first line was the $8.3 billion Sydney Metro North West, comprising 13 stations along a 36 kilometre line between Tallawong and Chatswood. The existing Epping to Chatswood line was upgraded to metro standards. This line was opened in July 2019. b) The second line will be the $16.8 billion Sydney Metro City and Southwest which will link Chatswood with Sydenham and include an upgrade of the existing Sydenham to Bankstown line to metro standards. This line is due to be completed by 2024. c) The third line will be the $3.5 billion Sydney Greater West Metro which will connect Western Sydney Aerotroplois and St Marys. The 23 kilometre long line will include a station at the Western Sydney International Airport and will connect with the main line at St Marys. Construction is underway and due to be completed by 2026 in time for the opening of the new Western Sydney International Airport. d) The $3 billion Sydney Metro West line will connect the Parramatta and Sydney CBDs, and will include stops at Parramatta, Westmead, Sydney Olympic Park, North Strathfield, North Burwood, Five Dock, Bays Precinct and the Sydney CBD. This line is due to be completed by 2030. Sources: Planning Portal NSW, www.urbandeveloper.com.au 8 Sydney Market Update MAJOR PROJECTS (cont) 2. At least $20 billion for construction of Western Sydney Aerotropolis. This will be an 11,200 hectare city based around the Western Sydney International Airport. The Aerotropolis will establish a high-skill jobs hub with a mixture of office and industrial space supporting the aerospace, defence, manufacturing, healthcare, freight and logistics, agribusiness, education and research industries and when completed will generate around 200,000 new jobs.
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