DOCSLIB.ORG

Subjective Decision Analysis Final Report

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Subjective Decision Analysis Final Report Subjective Decision Analysis Final Report: Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Russia, Saudi Arabia & Syria Allison Astorino-Courtois Sarah Canna, Abigail Chapman April Hartman, Sabrina Pagano September 2009 http://btjcorporation.com/yahoo_site_admin/assets/images/middle-east_map2.65234128.jpg 1 Contents Decision Analysis Report: Egypt ................................................................................................................... 4 Objective .................................................................................................................................................. 6 Context .................................................................................................................................................... 6 Leadership ................................................................................................................................................ 6 Interests ................................................................................................................................................... 7 Decision Calculus ................................................................................................................................... 10 Summary ................................................................................................................................................ 13 References ............................................................................................................................................. 13 Decision Analysis Report: Iran ................................................................................................................... 17 Objective ................................................................................................................................................ 18 Context .................................................................................................................................................. 18 Leadership .............................................................................................................................................. 20 Interests ................................................................................................................................................. 21 Decision Calculus ................................................................................................................................... 23 Summary ................................................................................................................................................ 25 References ............................................................................................................................................. 25 Decision Analysis Report: Iraq ................................................................................................................... 27 Objective ................................................................................................................................................ 28 Context .................................................................................................................................................. 29 Leadership .............................................................................................................................................. 30 Interests ................................................................................................................................................. 32 Decision Calculus ................................................................................................................................... 34 Summary ................................................................................................................................................ 37 References ............................................................................................................................................. 38 Decision Analysis Report: Russia ............................................................................................................... 41 Objective ................................................................................................................................................ 43 Context .................................................................................................................................................. 43 Leadership .............................................................................................................................................. 44 Interests ................................................................................................................................................. 45 Decision Calculus ................................................................................................................................... 49 Summary ................................................................................................................................................ 51 2 References ............................................................................................................................................. 51 Decision Analysis Report: Saudi Arabia ..................................................................................................... 54 Objective ................................................................................................................................................ 56 Context .................................................................................................................................................. 56 Leadership .............................................................................................................................................. 57 Interests ................................................................................................................................................. 58 Decision Calculus ................................................................................................................................... 59 Summary ................................................................................................................................................ 62 References ............................................................................................................................................. 63 Decision Analysis Report: Syria .................................................................................................................. 65 Objective ................................................................................................................................................ 67 Context .................................................................................................................................................. 67 Leadership .............................................................................................................................................. 68 Interests ................................................................................................................................................. 68 Decision Calculus ................................................................................................................................... 70 Summary ................................................................................................................................................ 73 References ............................................................................................................................................. 73 Appendix A: ................................................................................................................................................ 76 3 Decision Analysis Report: Egypt Overview and Full Report 4 Egypt: Overview Interests Regional Stability Regional Influence Domestic Stability Economic Stability Decision Calculus Options Available to Egypt Option 1: Pursue own nuclear military capability Option 2: Diplomatically oppose Iran Option 3: Back channel encouragement of a preemptive military strike on Iran Option 4: Cooperate with Israel and press for a diplomatic solution to the Palestinian issue Options Available to the United States Option 1: Military strike against Iran Option 2: Status-quo Option 3: Engage Iran Option 4: Support Egypt’s decisions by providing financial assistance Option 5: Provide diplomatic support to Egypt Option 6: Provide diplomatic and financial support to Egypt Option 7: Reduce financial support to Egypt Option 8: Refuse to engage in military action against Iran Option 9: Diplomatic neutrality in regards to Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, but still pursue non- diplomatic deterrence methods against Iran Status-Quo Environment Best Two Scenarios from Egypt’s Perspective: Scenario 1: Cooperate with Israel and press for a diplomatic solution to the Palestinian issues with the U.S. providing diplomatic and financial support Scenario 2: Cooperate with Israel and press for a diplomatic solution to the Palestinian issues with the U.S. engaging Iran Worst Two Scenarios from Egypt’s Perspective: Scenario 1: Egypt to pursue their own nuclear military capability and for the U.S. to continue the status-quo option in regard to Iran Scenario 2: Egypt to pursue their own nuclear military capability and for the U.S. to actively try to deter Egypt by reducing financial
Load more

Recommended publications
  • KT 5-5-2015 Layout 1
    SUBSCRIPTION TUESDAY, MAY 5, 2015 RAJJAB 16, 1436 AH www.kuwaittimes.net ‘Obedient About 100 Winners of Goalless draw Son’ award bodies found Kuwait Times with Qadsiya winners in Nepal photo contest crushes Arabi honored4 trekking7 village awarded38 title20 hopes US police kill gunmen Min 26º Max 40º in new cartoon attack High Tide 00:59 & 12:06 Low Tide FBI raids home of assailant Anti-Muslim hate group defiant 06:02 & 18:53 40 PAGES NO: 16511 150 FILS • GARLAND, United States: A Texas traffic policeman MP Turaiji blasts shot dead two suspected Islamist gunmen with his pis- tol after they opened fire with assault rifles and tried to former chiefs of storm an event staged by an anti-Muslim group, police said yesterday. There was no confirmed claim of respon- ports authority sibility for Sunday’s failed assault, but an FBI official told US media that one of the attackers had been previously investigated as an alleged would-be jihadist militant. By B Izzak ABC News, citing an FBI official, said yesterday that agents had raided an apartment in Phoenix, Arizona KUWAIT: Head of the National Assembly’s public thought to belong to Elton Simpson, allegedly one of funds committee MP Abdullah Al-Turaiji strongly the slain gunmen. Court documents seen by AFP show lashed out at the former management of Kuwait Simpson was sentenced to three years probation in Ports Authority, calling it a “gang” and alleging 2011 for lying to federal agents investigating him on wide-ranging corruption. The statements were suspicion of planning to travel to Somalia to fight with made after the committee met the new director of jihadists.
    [Show full text]
  • The Muslim Brotherhood
    ISLAMIC MOVEMENT AND DOMINANT IDEOLOGICAL TRENDS IN EGYPT: A CASE STUDY OF MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD THESIS SUBMITTED FOR THE AWARD OF THE DEGREE OF Doctor of Philosophy IN WEST ASIAN STUDIES (POLITICAL SCIENCE) BY AFSAHN UNDER THE SUPERVISION OF DR. MOHAMMAD GULREZ PROFESSOR Maulana Azad Library, Aligarh Muslim University DEPARTMENT OF WEST ASIAN STUDIES & NORTH AFRICAN STUDIES ALIGARH MUSLIM UNIVERSITY ALIGARH (U.P.)-202002 (INDIA) 2016 DEPARTMENT OF WEST ASIAN STUDIES & NORTH AFRICAN STUDIES ALIGARH MUSLIM UNIVERSITY, ALIGARH-202002(U.P) India Date: Certificate This is to certify that the Ph.D. thesis entitled “Islamic Movement and Dominant Ideological Trends in Egypt: A Case Study of Muslim Brotherhood” submitted by Ms. Afshan under my supervision is his own original contribution and suitable for submission for the award of the degree of Ph.D. It is further certified that Ms. Afshan has been engaged in fulltime research and that he has put in required attendance as prescribed by the University. (Dr. Mohammad Gulrez) (Dr. Mohammad Gulrez) Maulana SupervisorAzad Library, Aligarh MuslimChairman University i PREFACE & ACKNOWLEDGEMENT The purpose of this study on “Islamic Movement and Dominant Ideological Trends in Egypt: A Case Study of Muslim Brotherhood” is not to give a modern history and contemporary trends of all kinds of thought expressed by the Egyptian scholars since the second half of the nineteenth century. The emphasis however is on the ideological trends about politics and society within a certain context. This thought process was influenced by the growth of European and the Islamic resurgence movements calling for radical social reforms and for changes in the system of government.
    [Show full text]
  • ELMASRI-THESIS-2019.Pdf (7.580Mb)
    The Thesis Committee for Yasser El Masri Certifies that this is the approved version of the following Thesis Decentralizing Power: Building Peace through Architecture in the Middle East APPROVED BY SUPERVISING COMMITTEE: Juliana Felkner, Supervisor Matthew Fajkus Decentralizing Power: Building Peace through Architecture in the Middle East by Yasser El Masri Thesis Presented to the Faculty of the Graduate School of The University of Texas at Austin in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Sustainable Design The University of Texas at Austin May 2019 Dedication I would like to dedicate this research to my family who has stood by me in every step on the way on this long journey to earn my master’s degree, my fiancé Mariam who proves to me each day the immeasurable wealth of her companionship, and to my advisors Juliana Felkner and Matt Fajkus for their constant support on this research and throughout my experience at UT. Abstract Decentralizing Power: Building Peace through Architecture in the Middle East Yasser El Masri, M.S.S.D. The University of Texas at Austin, 2019 Supervisor: Juliana Felkner This paper argues that applying contextually conscious, and sustainable design principles in Middle urban environments has far-reaching social, cultural and environmental implications that could help diffuse and mitigate future conflicts and increase survivability for inhabitants. Initially, an extensive study of the role of cultural perception through the eyes of colonialism and orientalism on the conflicts and architecture of the Middle Eastern region, particularly its legacy on identity, and architecture indicates the fact that due to this legacy, modern conflicts in the Middle East tend to be recurring, identity based and related to resource inequity.
    [Show full text]
  • Middle East Security Issues in the Shadow of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation
    Middle East Security Issues In the Shadow of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation Editor BARRY R. SCHNEIDER Air University Press Maxwell Air Force Base, Alabama December 1999 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Middle East security issues: in the shadow of weapons of mass destruction prolifera- tion/Barry R. Schneider, editor. p. c.m ISBN 1-58566-077-0 1. Middle East—Strategic aspects. 2. Weapons of mass destruction—Middle East. 3. National security—Middle East. 4. United States—Military policy. I. Schneider, Barry R. UA832.M5225 1999 355’.033056—dc21 99-0588978 Disclaimer Opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed or implied within are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of Air University, the United States Air Force, the Department of Defense, or any other US government agency. Cleared for public release: distribution unlimited. ii Contents Chapter Page DISCLAIMER . ii PREFACE . v 1 NBC and Missile Proliferation Issues in the Middle East . 1 Lawrence Scheinman 2 Recent Military Developments in the Persian Gulf . 27 Anthony H. Cordesman 3 Arab Perspectives on Middle Eastern Security . 61 Ibrahim A. Karawan 4 Regional Security and Arms Control in the Middle East: The Nuclear Dimension . 77 Avner Cohen 5 The Egyptian-Israeli Confrontation over the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty . 109 W. Andrew Terrill CONTRIBUTORS . 135 iii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK Preface The Middle East is an international flashpoint, a place where open warfare could erupt at any time. It is the home of numerous countries possessing some combination of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) (nuclear, biological, or chemical weapons), and is an area where states are developing an increasing capability to deliver such WMD by missiles and/or aircraft.
    [Show full text]
  • Political System of Islam and Its Relevance in Modern Times
    POLITICAL SYSTEM OF ISLAM AND ITS RELEVANCE IN MODERN TIMES ABSTRACT THESIS SUBMITTED FOR THE *kWA.RO OF THE DEGREE OF Bottor of $I|iIo2opI)p IN SHIA THEOLOGY By ALI JANBOZORGI Under the Supervision of DR. SYED FARMAN HUSAIN DEPARTMENT OF THEOLOGY AUGARH MUSLIM UNIVERSITY AUGARH (INDIA) 2005 Abstract ABSTRACT In the present work an attempt has been made to assess the history, poUtical philosophy and socio-poUtical conditions and civihzation trends right from the prophet period till now. The object of this worlc focuses on bringing into light major political systems of Muslims that emerged and operated at various periods of time and special emphasis has been given to modern Muslim experimentations and various methods techniques ad ways necessitated by the requirements of time and place. Many books and articles have been written on political systems of Islam and Muslims but no substantial and cohesive effort had been made to bring out the relevance and application of the that discussions 'political system of Islam to modern times' which has been done in this work. This work is divided into seen chapters followed by a bibliography and glossary. The first chapter is devoted to the discussion of the political system of the Prophet's period and the evolution of the Islamic state through a number of the Prophetic measures like the system of the 'mu'akhat (brotherhood) and the Kitab (document) and the making of the 'ummah' (Muslim community) etc: It also discusses the politico-juridical systems during the Caliphs's period and explains the concepts of Khalifa and the Caliphate and Ideal Khalifat, encompassing the experimentations of the umavid and Abbasid dynasties with special reference to their state- building measure and thought making provisions and resolutions such the rise of three tier system of governance which is generally classified as the central, provincial and local governments.
    [Show full text]
  • State and Revolution in Egypt: the Paradox of Change and Politics
    Brandeis University Crown Center for Middle East Studies Essay 2 January 2012 STATE AND REVOLUTION IN EGYPT: THE PARADOX OF CHANGE AND POLITICS Abdel Monem Said Aly Editor Naghmeh Sohrabi Consulting Editor Robert L. Cohen Production Manager Benjamin Rostoker Designer John McCoy Crown Essay Series Crown Essays are article-length commentaries intended to foster debate on contemporary issues related to the Middle East. Based on works of scholarship, this series allows for the authors to engage with and contribute to important issues in the region in an essay format. Submission Guidelines Crown Essays primarily reflect but are not limited to the scholarship of Crown Center faculty and research fellows. For submission guidelines and other questions, please contact [email protected]. Copyright © 2012 Crown Center for Middle East Studies, Brandeis University. All rights reserved. The views expressed in the Crown Essays belong solely to the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Crown Center for Middle East Studies or Brandeis University. Crown Essays (ISBN): 978-0-9844714-4-7 TABLE OF CONTENTS Preface: Personal Notes 1 Introduction: Historical and Conceptual Notes 13 Prelude to Change: The 2005 Elections 14 The Revolution: A Chronology 21 The First Wave 22 The Second Wave 23 The Third Wave 23 The Fourth Wave 24 The Revolution: Why? 25 Structural Factors 25 Circumstantial Factors 33 Mismanagement of the Crisis 38 Post-Revolution Developments 46 The State 46 The Revolutionaries 52 Trends and Directions 60 Four Paradigms 60 The
    [Show full text]
  • The Historical Pivotal Role of Egypt in Liberating and Preserving Islamicjerusalem
    JOURNAL OF ISLAMICJERUSALEM STUDIES (SUMMER 2013) 13:65-80 IN THE SHADOW OF THE 'ARAB SPRING': THE HISTORICAL PIVOTAL ROLE OF EGYPT IN LIBERATING AND PRESERVING ISLAMICJERUSALEM MAHER Y. ABU-MUNSHAR Q atc:zr U niversiry ABSTRACT: During the last three years) a number of Arab countries have witnessed 1 mass uprisings ''Arab Spring" resulted in the fall of so~e authoritarian regimes in Egyp0 Libya, Tunisia and Yemen. The fall of these regimes paved the wqy for matry Islamic movements) such as the Muslim Brothers and others to rise on the scene) and win the presidential election) as is the case in Egypt and parliamentary elections) as happened with other countries to varying degrees. These changes) espedal!J in Egypt recalled the historical pivotal role of Egypt in liberating and preserving Islamig.erusalem. It mqy be historical!J argued that the relationship between Islamig.erusalem and Egypt was established immediate!J after the Muslim conquests of both regions during the reign of Caliph Umar Ibn al-Khattab. This relationship has developed dramatical!J with the passage of time on van·ous levels. The purpose of this article is to present a critical ana!Jsis of the histon·cal role of Egypt in liberating, controlling and maintaining Islamigerusalem. It will also endeavour to answer the following questions: how did Egypt plqy a crudal role in liberating and preserving Islamig.erusalem? How could Egypt resume its vital role towards Islamig·erusalem) especial!J with the recent developments following the ''Arab Spring"? KEYWORDS: Arab Spn·ng, Muslim Brothers) Islamigerusalem Egyp0 Crusaders, Jeffa treary) Camp David Accord.
    [Show full text]
  • Am Ri E S Ty INTERN-ATI 0 NAL January 2( (111 Vol
    Am ri e s ty INTERN-ATI 0 NAL January 2( (111 Vol. 30 / N EWS Adis- • COLOMBIA People of the Cacarica River Basin in boats they will use to return and reclaim their land DISPLACED COMMUNITY PREPARES TO RETURN Colombian authorities responsible for their "disappearance" of at least 70 members of holnes. all` people of the Cacarica River safety. "IThey want specific measures to be their community be brought to justice: "Flow T WOBasin \TARS :ire .preparing X FIE.R BEIM. to return DRIVE :Ind\ FRONI !HEIR implemented, including action by the can I live in peace if my oppressors remain rebuild their lives. After months of enforced security forces to prevent incursions bv army- free?", asks one. inactivity, hying in temporan-, overcrowded backed paramilitary groups or guerdlla "This is a struggle for what we want to be shelters, Wilboull :My privacy, they are forces. They want civilian law enforcement and for what they will not let us be-, says one determined to overccmle the dangers they agencies to be on hand to help prevent f'ather of four. talking about the land he was face in order to regain their lands. human rights abuses by the armed groups. forced to abandon. "It is land which offers us About 3,8110 people were forcibly displaced They arc also demanding that those everything a family needs: but there are those in a.joint army-paramilitary operation in responsible for the killing and that stand in our way." Ianuary 1997. They were refused help when The people of the Cacarica River Basin are they turned to locally stationed troops, aml asking for international help and support for were told: "the paramilitaries are in charge of their return.
    [Show full text]
  • The 1991 Madrid Peace Conference: U.S
    University of New Orleans ScholarWorks@UNO University of New Orleans Theses and Dissertations Dissertations and Theses 5-20-2011 The 1991 Madrid Peace Conference: U.S. Efforts Towards Lasting Peace in the Middle East Between Israel and its Neighbors Fernando Rodriguez University of New Orleans Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarworks.uno.edu/td Recommended Citation Rodriguez, Fernando, "The 1991 Madrid Peace Conference: U.S. Efforts Towards Lasting Peace in the Middle East Between Israel and its Neighbors" (2011). University of New Orleans Theses and Dissertations. 1343. https://scholarworks.uno.edu/td/1343 This Thesis is protected by copyright and/or related rights. It has been brought to you by ScholarWorks@UNO with permission from the rights-holder(s). You are free to use this Thesis in any way that is permitted by the copyright and related rights legislation that applies to your use. For other uses you need to obtain permission from the rights- holder(s) directly, unless additional rights are indicated by a Creative Commons license in the record and/or on the work itself. This Thesis has been accepted for inclusion in University of New Orleans Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of ScholarWorks@UNO. For more information, please contact [email protected]. The 1991 Madrid Peace Conference: U.S. Efforts Towards Lasting Peace in the Middle East Between Israel and its Neighbors A Thesis Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of the University of New Orleans in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts in History by Fernando Rodriguez B.A.
    [Show full text]
  • Why Did the Syrian Regime Survive the Arab Spring?
    Utah State University DigitalCommons@USU All Graduate Plan B and other Reports Graduate Studies 5-2017 Same Revolution, Different Outcome: Why Did the Syrian Regime Survive the Arab Spring? Adam Alrowaiti Utah State University Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/gradreports Part of the International Relations Commons, and the Other Political Science Commons Recommended Citation Alrowaiti, Adam, "Same Revolution, Different Outcome: Why Did the Syrian Regime Survive the Arab Spring?" (2017). All Graduate Plan B and other Reports. 895. https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/gradreports/895 This Report is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate Studies at DigitalCommons@USU. It has been accepted for inclusion in All Graduate Plan B and other Reports by an authorized administrator of DigitalCommons@USU. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Same Revolution, Different Outcome: Why Did the Syrian Regime Survive the Arab Spring? by Adam Alrowaiti A thesis proposal submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE in Political Science Approved: Prof. Colin Flint Prof. Robert Nalbandov Prof. Abdulkafi Albirini UTAH STATE UNIVERSITY Logan, Utah Fall 2016 1 Same Revolution, Different Outcome: Why Did the Syrian Regime Survive the Arab Spring? Adam Alrowaiti 2 Table of contents 1. Abstract…………………………………………………………………………….….……….3 2. Introduction…………………………………………………………………………………….4 3. The Puzzle……………………………………………………………………………………...5 4. Literature Review………………………………………………………………………………8
    [Show full text]
  • Comparison of the Role of Religion in Politics in Syria and Egypt Between 2000 and 2014
    FACULTY OF SOCIAL STUDIES Comparison of the Role of Religion in Politics in Syria and Egypt between 2000 and 2014 Bachelor's Thesis ANJANETTE JIANNA UMALI Supervisor: Mgr. et Mgr. Vladimír Bízik Department of International Relations and European Studies International Relations and European Politics Brno 2020 Bibliographic Record Author: Anjanette Jianna Umali Faculty of Social Studies, Masaryk University Department of International Relations and European Studies Title of Thesis: Comparison of the Role of Religion in Politics in Syria and Egypt between 2000 and 2014 Degree Programme: International Relations and European Politics Supervisor: Mgr. et Mgr. Vladimír Bízik Academic Year: 2020 Number of Pages: 53 Keywords: Egypt, Syria, Middle East, Religion, Islam, Islamism, Political Islam, Political System COMPARISON OF THE ROLE OF RELIGION IN POLITICS IN SYRIA AND EGYPT BETWEEN 2000 AND 2014 Abstract This research paper describes the effect and role of religion in political systems, using a comparative study of Syria and Egypt between the years of 2000 to 2014. The thesis will briefly examine literature related to the topic; then, it will talk about the political background and landscape of both states, which will show how religion is involved in the respective countries’ political scene, and how religion and its role has changed over time. It will compare the countries’ similarities and differences, and answer whether or not laws and politics have changed in comparison to the religious groups’ roles and beliefs. 2 Statutory Declaration I hereby declare that I have written the submitted Bachelor's Thesis concerning the topic of Comparison of the Role of Religion in Politics in Syria and Egypt between 2000 and 2014 independently.
    [Show full text]
  • National Flag and Emblem Locator Map TEXT HIGHLIGHTS
    EGYPT National Flag and Emblem Locator Map TEXT HIGHLIGHTS: Diaries updates, key events, brief analysis and relating news articles in timeline Overview It’s name derived from Greece word ‘Aegyptus’ meaning for “dark soil” Long known for its pyramids and ancient civilization, Egypt is the largest Arab country and has played a central role in Middle Eastern politics in modern times. Arabs introduced Islam and Arabic in 7th century and ruled the hitherto predominantly Christian country for six centuries. Mamlukis took control around 1250. Egypt was conquered by the Ottoman Turks in 1517. After completion of the Suez Canal, Egypt became a transport hub but also fell in debts. Britain took over control of Egypt in 1882. Egypt received in 1922 nominal independence from the UK. Kingdom of Egypt (1922–53) held an enthronement rite for its last ruling king, Farouk I. Headship since independence: King Farouk Monarchial Head King Farouk I of Egypt (Fārūq al-Awwal) (11 February 1920 – 18 March 1965), was the tenth ruler from the Muhammad Ali Dynasty and the penultimate King of Egypt and the Sudan, succeeding his father, Fuad I of Egypt, in 1936. His full title was "His Majesty Farouk I, by the grace of God, King of Egypt and Sudan, Sovereign of Nubia, of Kordofan, and of Darfur." He was overthrown in the Egyptian Revolution of 1952 and forced to abdicate in favor of his infant son Ahmed Fuad, who succeeded him as Fuad II of Egypt. He died in exile in Italy. In 1952 the Egyptian military staged a coup and overthrew the British backed monarchy acquired full sovereignty.
    [Show full text]