Subjective Decision Analysis Final Report: Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Russia, Saudi Arabia & Syria Allison Astorino-Courtois Sarah Canna, Abigail Chapman April Hartman, Sabrina Pagano September 2009 http://btjcorporation.com/yahoo_site_admin/assets/images/middle-east_map2.65234128.jpg 1 Contents Decision Analysis Report: Egypt ................................................................................................................... 4 Objective .................................................................................................................................................. 6 Context .................................................................................................................................................... 6 Leadership ................................................................................................................................................ 6 Interests ................................................................................................................................................... 7 Decision Calculus ................................................................................................................................... 10 Summary ................................................................................................................................................ 13 References ............................................................................................................................................. 13 Decision Analysis Report: Iran ................................................................................................................... 17 Objective ................................................................................................................................................ 18 Context .................................................................................................................................................. 18 Leadership .............................................................................................................................................. 20 Interests ................................................................................................................................................. 21 Decision Calculus ................................................................................................................................... 23 Summary ................................................................................................................................................ 25 References ............................................................................................................................................. 25 Decision Analysis Report: Iraq ................................................................................................................... 27 Objective ................................................................................................................................................ 28 Context .................................................................................................................................................. 29 Leadership .............................................................................................................................................. 30 Interests ................................................................................................................................................. 32 Decision Calculus ................................................................................................................................... 34 Summary ................................................................................................................................................ 37 References ............................................................................................................................................. 38 Decision Analysis Report: Russia ............................................................................................................... 41 Objective ................................................................................................................................................ 43 Context .................................................................................................................................................. 43 Leadership .............................................................................................................................................. 44 Interests ................................................................................................................................................. 45 Decision Calculus ................................................................................................................................... 49 Summary ................................................................................................................................................ 51 2 References ............................................................................................................................................. 51 Decision Analysis Report: Saudi Arabia ..................................................................................................... 54 Objective ................................................................................................................................................ 56 Context .................................................................................................................................................. 56 Leadership .............................................................................................................................................. 57 Interests ................................................................................................................................................. 58 Decision Calculus ................................................................................................................................... 59 Summary ................................................................................................................................................ 62 References ............................................................................................................................................. 63 Decision Analysis Report: Syria .................................................................................................................. 65 Objective ................................................................................................................................................ 67 Context .................................................................................................................................................. 67 Leadership .............................................................................................................................................. 68 Interests ................................................................................................................................................. 68 Decision Calculus ................................................................................................................................... 70 Summary ................................................................................................................................................ 73 References ............................................................................................................................................. 73 Appendix A: ................................................................................................................................................ 76 3 Decision Analysis Report: Egypt Overview and Full Report 4 Egypt: Overview Interests Regional Stability Regional Influence Domestic Stability Economic Stability Decision Calculus Options Available to Egypt Option 1: Pursue own nuclear military capability Option 2: Diplomatically oppose Iran Option 3: Back channel encouragement of a preemptive military strike on Iran Option 4: Cooperate with Israel and press for a diplomatic solution to the Palestinian issue Options Available to the United States Option 1: Military strike against Iran Option 2: Status-quo Option 3: Engage Iran Option 4: Support Egypt’s decisions by providing financial assistance Option 5: Provide diplomatic support to Egypt Option 6: Provide diplomatic and financial support to Egypt Option 7: Reduce financial support to Egypt Option 8: Refuse to engage in military action against Iran Option 9: Diplomatic neutrality in regards to Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, but still pursue non- diplomatic deterrence methods against Iran Status-Quo Environment Best Two Scenarios from Egypt’s Perspective: Scenario 1: Cooperate with Israel and press for a diplomatic solution to the Palestinian issues with the U.S. providing diplomatic and financial support Scenario 2: Cooperate with Israel and press for a diplomatic solution to the Palestinian issues with the U.S. engaging Iran Worst Two Scenarios from Egypt’s Perspective: Scenario 1: Egypt to pursue their own nuclear military capability and for the U.S. to continue the status-quo option in regard to Iran Scenario 2: Egypt to pursue their own nuclear military capability and for the U.S. to actively try to deter Egypt by reducing financial