Swedish Opinions on Different Energy Sources Sören Holmberg Per Hedberg Omslagsbild: Oskarshamns Kraftgrupp (OKG), https://www.okg.se/sv/Press/Bildbank/ CONTENTS Preface Chapter 1. The Impact of Party on Nuclear Power Attitudes in Sweden 1 Chapter 2. Nuclear Power Supporters Maintain Lead in Sweden 21 Chapter 3. Party Influence on Nuclear Power Opinion in Sweden 33 Chapter 4. Public Opinion and Swedish Nuclear Power Policy 55 Chapter 5. Swedish People´s Opinion on Sun and Wind 91 Chapter 6. Saving Energy 101 Chapter 7. Swedes’ Thoughts about Wind Power 109 Chapter 8. Energy Opinion in an International Perspective 121 Chapter 9. Swedish Opinion on Nuclear Power 1986 - 2018 145 Chapter 10. Measuring Opinion on Nuclear Power. The SOM-institute´s Question Wordings and Results 1986 - 2018 157 Chapter 11. Swedish Opinion on Wind Power 1999 - 2018. 169 Chapter 12. Swedish Opinions on Different Energy Sources 181 PREFACE n the 1970s, energy production was politicized big time in the industrialized world. The I birth of the environmental movement, the oil crises in 1973/74 and the beginning conflict surrounding civilian nuclear power, put energy issues center stage on the political agenda. Energy policies – especially related to the development of nuclear power – came to dominate election campaigns, like in Sweden in 1976 or be the subject of referendums, like in Austria in 1978 and in Sweden in 1980. Critical voices toward the peaceful use of nuclear power – having started in America before being exported to Europe – gained real strength and public support all over the Western world by the nuclear accident at the Three Mile Island plant in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania in 1979. The energy genie was out of the bottle and out to stay. Fueled by the nuclear meltdowns in Chernobyl in 1986 and in Fukushima in 2011 and supplemented by conflicts over how to reduce the use of oil and coal, how to sensibly exploit the waste gas reserves, and how to develop renewable energy sources based on sun, wind and waves in order to handle the climate crises and stop the heating of the planet – have made all kinds of energy issues the focal point of political contentions ever since the early 1970s. In Sweden, as in many other countries, energy policies – often with nuclear power in the center – have been one of the most fought-over policy areas during the last thirty-forty years. And the contentious character of energy policies is not limited to the elite level of politics – to politicians, to media pundits or to lobbyists. It is also manifest among ordinary citizens. Energy issues – nuclear power and wind power in particular – are highly polarizing among voters as well. Given this historic background, starting in the 1970s, it was rather natural that energy questions – featuring most prominently issues related to nuclear power – would be important parts of the voter surveys done by the Swedish National Elections Studies (SNES) at the University of Gothenburg. The first book-length studies of Swedish mass attitudes toward nuclear power appeared already in the late 1970s. Since then all SNES surveys have included measurements of Swedish opinions on various energy issues. A special election study was done in 1980 covering the nuclear power referendum. Beginning in 1986, SNES´s election year measurements were supplemented by annual studies done by the newly founded SOM Institute at University of Gothenburg. These annual measurements were from the start designed and coordinated by the research project Energy Opinion in Sweden, originally financially supported by the now non-existent National Board for Spent Fuel, but since 1999 partly financed by The Swedish Energy Agency. The analyses in the chapters in this English language e-book, have all been done and published under the auspices of the research project Energy Opinion in Sweden. The time span is quite long, almost thirty years. The writing in Chapter 1 appeared already in 1991, while the results in Chapters 4 and 8 – 12 are from 2018/19. The book is an updated and enlarged version of Energy Opinion Compared Across Time and Space published in 2013. Chapter 1 by Sören Holmberg, The Impact of Party on Nuclear Power Attitudes in Sweden was first published as SKN Report 48, April 1991 by the National Board for Spent Nuclear Fuel. Chapter 2 by Sören Holmberg, Nuclear Power Supporters Maintain Lead in Sweden from 2005 was translated and published by EU Working Group on Energy Technology Surveys and Technology (ETSAM). Chapter 3 Party Influence on Nuclear Power Opinion in Sweden and Chapter 4 Public Opinion and Swedish Nuclear Power Policy by Sören Holmberg and Per Hedberg were both originally done as part of the international research project Phasing-Out and Phasing-In: The Comparative Politics and Policies of Nuclear Energy in Western Europe. A shortened version of chapter 4 was published in Wolfgang Müller & Paul Thurner (eds) The Politics of Nuclear Energy in Western Europe (Oxford University Press) in 2017. Chapter 5 Swedish People´s Opinion on Sun and Wind by Per Hedberg and Chapter 6 Saving Energy by Sören Holmberg and Per Hedberg was published by ETSAM in 2005. Chapter 7 Swedes´ Thoughts about Wind Power by Per Hedberg was first published in the Swedish SOM book I framtidens skugga (2012) and in the English book Stepping Stones (2013). Chapter 8 is an overview of Energy Opinion in an International Perspective by Sören Holmberg and Per Hedberg. The last four chapters are documentation pieces and published by Energy Opinion in Sweden and the SOM Institute. A complete listing of all publications in English and in Swedish by the research project Energy Opinion in Sweden can be found on the web page of SNES (www.valforskning.pol.gu.se) and the SOM Institute (www.SOM.gu.se). A continuation of the project Energy Opinion in Sweden is in place preserving most of the old time series, but with more emphasis on environmental and climate perspectives. Sören Holmberg is part of the new project together with Henrik Oscarsson, Sverker Jagers and Simon Matti. The project is still supported by The Swedish Energy Agency and is named Den svenska Miljö- Energi- och Klimatopinionen (MEK), in English Swedish Opinion on Environment, Energy and Climate. Göteborg in December 2019 Sören Holmberg Per Hedberg Chapter 1 The Impact of Party On Nuclear Power Attitudes in Sweden Sören Holmberg 3 ass attitudes to nuclear power in general and to the more specific problems having to do M with the management of nuclear waste are related to each other. People with anti- nuclear attitudes tend to view many of the nuclear waste problems differently than persons who are positive to the use of nuclear power. Hence, the study of mass attitudes to nuclear power is of relevance for the stud y of attitudes to nuclear waste. The present study analyse attitudes to nuclear power as well as attitudes to nuclear waste. The emphasis, however, is on the development of mass attitudes to nuclear power. The setting is Sweden and the time-frame the last 20 years. Theories purporting to explain public attitudes to nuclear power are not in short supply. On the contrary they abound. As with nuclear weapons, research on attitudes to nuclear power has a proliferation problem. The enigma of what moves nuclear power attitudes and why some people tend to become pro nuclear power while others are con calls out for good answers, but the over-crowded marketplace of unruly social science models makes it difficult to find them. And, paradoxically, amidst all the theories of the importance of economic self- interest, gender, post materialist values, belief systems, psychological traits, risk assessments, level of information, media coverage and center-periphery locations, the most important explanatory variables tend to get lost. They are the political variables. The conflict over nuclear power in countries like the US, France, Sweden and German y is primarily a political phenomenon.1 Like most other political issues, the nuclear power issue was politicized at a certain point in time (early 1970s), experienced a period of extensive debate and dispute, and will eventually be depoliticized (which maybe already have happened in France and the US).2 Actions by different elite groups - especially actions by political parties in systems with strong cohesive parties - are often overlooked as driving forces behind this process. Instead, an idealistic model of the origins of political conflict is taken for granted. Conflicts are supposed to start with the people and opinions are supposedly formed from below by socioeconomic factors, basic values and individual traits. According to this theory, parties aggregate and articu1ate opinions rather than forming them from above. A more realistic model acknowledges the fact that various elite groups, among which political parties and candidates are the most visible, are engaged in influencing public opinion in all democracies. This process of opinion formation from above is sometimes dismissed as a little suspect and not really belonging to the democratic family. Given the practices of party propaganda across the world, it is an understandable reaction, even if it is erroneous. Naturally, in democracies with freedom of expression, opinion formation in relation to positions espoused by political parties and candidates is an integral and legitimate process. In this article the conflict over nuclear power in Sweden will be used as a case in point. Based on data from mass surveys, we are going to stud y the impact of party on nuclear attitudes. Changes across time as well as differences between parties will be studied. Results from public opinion polls are employed, but most of the analysis draws on data gathered by the Swedish Election Studies Program. The time period covered will be from 1973, when nuclear power became a politicized issue in Sweden, through 1990, when there are clear signs of nuclear power becoming re-politicized after having been a semi-dormant issue during the years after the 1980 referendum on nuclear power.