Climate Change and the Victorian Bushfire Threat

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BE PREPARED: CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE VICTORIAN BUSHFIRE THREAT

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CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU Authorship: Professor Lesley Hughes

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Professor Lesley Hughes Climate Councillor Introduction

Residents of Victoria have experienced This report first describes the the serious consequences of bushfires. background context of fire and its Although Victoria comprises only history in Victoria. We then outline the 3% of Australia’s land mass, more link between bushfires and climate than half of all known fatalities due change, before considering how bushfire to bushfires have occurred in Victoria, danger weather is increasing in Victoria and the state has sustained around and what this means for the immediate 50% of the economic damage. future. We explore the impacts of fire Australians have always lived with on people, property, water supply and fire and its consequences, but climate biodiversity, before considering the change is increasing fire danger weather future influence of climate change and thus the risk of fires. It is time to on bushfires, and the implications think very seriously about the risks for Victorian fire managers, planners that future fires will pose. and emergency services.

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Key Findings

1. Climate change is increasing ›› Victoria’s 2014–15 bushfire season the risk of bushfires in Victoria outlook has been upgraded and lengthening the fire from an “above normal” fire season. season to a “major” fire season following record October warmth ›› Extreme fire weather has increased and expected ongoing hot, dry over the last 30 years in Victoria. conditions. The fire season in Victoria is starting earlier and lasting longer. 3. Recent severe fires in Victoria Fire weather has been extending have been influenced by into October and into March. record hot, dry conditions. ›› Australia is a fire prone country ›› The 2009 Black Saturday fires in and Victoria has always Victoria were preceded by a record experienced bushfires. Today breaking decade-long drought climate change is making hot days with a string of record hot years, hotter, and heatwaves longer and coupled with a severe heatwave more frequent, with increasing in the preceding week. drought conditions in Australia’s ›› In the lead up to the bushfires southeast. on Saturday 7th 2009, maximum ›› Record breaking heat and hotter temperatures were up to 23°C weather over the long term in above the February average Victoria has worsened fire weather in Victoria and record high and contributed to an increase temperatures for February were in the frequency and severity set in over 87% of the state. of bushfires. 4. In Victoria the economic 2. Victoria is the state most cost of bushfires, including affected by bushfires and is loss of life, livelihoods, on the frontline of increasing property damage and bushfire risk. emergency services ›› Over half of known fatalities due responses, is very high. to bushfires in Australia have ›› The total economic costs of occurred in Victoria. bushfires in Victoria in 2014 ›› Victoria has sustained around are projected to be more than 50% of the economic damage from $172 million. By around the middle bushfires despite covering only of the century these costs will 3% of Australia. more than double.

Page 2 CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU ›› These projections do not ›› Increasing severity, frequency and incorporate increased bushfire the lengthening fire season will incident rates due to climate strain Victoria’s existing resources change and so could potentially for fighting and managing fires. be much higher. ›› By 2030, it has been estimated ›› Livestock losses were estimated that the number of professional at 13,000 in the 2003 Alpine fires firefighters in Victoria will need to in Victoria, 65,000 in the 2005–6 approximately double (compared to Grampians fire and more than 2010) to keep pace with increased 11,000 in the Black Saturday fires. population, asset value, and fire 5. In the future, Victoria is danger weather. very likely to experience an ›› Australia must cut its emissions increased number of days rapidly and deeply to join global with extreme fire danger. efforts to stabilise the world’s Communities, emergency climate and to reduce the risk services and health services of even more extreme events, across Victoria must prepare. including bushfires. ›› Fire severity and intensity is expected to increase substantially in coming decades in Victoria. The fire season will continue to lengthen, further reducing the opportunities for safe hazard reduction burning.

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1. The nature of bushfires

Fire has been a feature of the Australian The unprecedented ferocity of the environment for at least 65 million years 2009 Black Saturday bushfires in Victoria (Cary et al. 2012). Human management of saw a new ‘catastrophic’ category added fires also has a long history, starting with to the FFDI for events exceeding the fire use by indigenous Australians (“fire- existing scale. stick farming”) up to 60,000 years ago. The concept of “fire regimes” is Between 3% and 10% of Australia’s land important for understanding the area burns every year (Western Australian nature of bushfires in Australia, and Land Information Authority 2013). for assessing changes in fire behaviour In Australia, the Forest Fire Danger caused by both human and climatic Index (FFDI) is used to measure the factors (Figure 2). A fire regime describes degree of risk of fire in our forests a recurrent pattern of fire, with the most (Luke and Macarthur 1978). The important characteristics being the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) and fire frequency, intensity, and seasonality management agencies use the FFDI of the fire. Significant changes in any to assess fire risk and issue warnings. of these features of a fire regime can The index was originally designed on a have a very important influence on scale from 0 to 100, with fires between its ecological and economic impacts 75 and 100 considered ‘extreme’. (Williams et al. 2009).

Figure 1: Trees burn in Bullumwaal, Victoria

Page 4 CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU 01 THE NATURE OF BUSHFIRES IN AUSTRALIA

Figure 4. Main factors aecting bushﬁres

3 | People Main factors Fires may be deliberately started (arson) or be started by accident (e.g. by powerline fault). Human aecting activities can also reduce ﬁre, either by direct suppression or by reducing fuel load by bushﬁres prescribed burning

1 | Ignition Fires can be started by lightning or people, either deliberately or accidentally

2 | Fuel Fires need fuel of sucient quantity & dryness. A wet year creates favourable conditions for vegetation growth. If 4 | Weather this is followed by a dry Fires are more likely to spread on hot, dry, season or year, ﬁres are windy days. Hot weather also dries out fuel, more likely to spread and favouring ﬁre spread and intensity become intense

Figure 2: Main factors affecting bushfires CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU Page 6

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Fire is a complex process that is very between rainfall and fuel is complex. variable in space and time. A fire Wet seasons can lead to increased needs to be started (ignition), it needs plant growth and therefore increase something to burn (fuel) and it needs fuel buildup in the months or years conditions that are conducive to its before a fire is ignited (Bradstock et spread (weather and topography) al. 2009). Warmer temperatures and (see Figure 2). Fire activity is strongly low rainfall in the period immediately influenced by weather, fuel, terrain, preceding an ignition, however, ignition agents and people. The most can lead to drier vegetation and important aspects of weather that soil, making the existing fuel more affect fire and fuels are temperature, flammable. Warmer temperatures precipitation, wind and humidity. Once can also be associated with a higher a fire is ignited, very hot days with low incidence of lightning activity (Jayaratne humidity and high winds are conducive and Kuleshov, 2006), increasing the to its spread. The type, amount, and risk of ignition. In many regions moisture level of fuel available are also local weather conditions are the most critical determinants of fire behaviour, important influence on fire activity extent and intensity. The relationship (Climate Council 2014a).

“The most important aspects of weather that affect fire and fuels are temperature, precipitation, wind and humidity”.

As fire weather conditions become more People are also a very important severe, fuel moisture content declines, component of the fire equation. Many making the fuel more flammable. By fires are either deliberately or accidentally contrast, in arid regions, vegetation lit, and in places where population and thus fuel in most years is sparsely density is high, the probability of a distributed and fires, if ignited, rarely fire igniting increases close to roads spread far. In Australia’s southeast, fires and settlements (Willis 2005; Penman are common in the heathlands and dry et al. 2013). Some of Australia’s most sclerophyll forests, such as the mountain catastrophic bushfires have been ignited ash forests in Victoria, typically occurring by powerline faults. But people also play about every 5 to 30 years, with spring and an important role in reducing fire risk, summer being peak fire season (Clarke et by vegetation management including al. 2011; Bradstock et al. 2012). prescribed burning to reduce fuel

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Mildura

Swan Hill

Gannawarra Wodonga

Buloke Hindmarsh Moira Indigo Campaspe Loddon Greater Shepparton Towong Wangaratta West Northern Benalla Wimmera Grampians Horsham Bendigo Strathbogie Alpine

Mount Pyrenees Central Mitchell Mansﬁeld Goroke Goldﬁelds Alexander

Southern Macedon East Gippsland Grampians Ararat Ranges Ballarat Gisborne Moorabool Wellington Glenelg Grampians Ranges Golden Plains Baw Baw Hamilton Dunkled Moyne Skipton Erica Beaumaris Traralgon Derrinallum Surf Geelong Coast Morwell Colac-Otway South Gippsland Melbourne Warrnambool Birregurra Yallourn Otway Ranges

1939 Widespread across Victoria including; 2003 North East and Gippsland Warburton, Erica, Rubicon, Dromana, Manﬁeld, the Otway ranges and the Grampian Ranges. 2006 Grampian ranges

1944 Central and western districts, Morwell, Yallourn 2006–07 Great divide complex

1977 Western Districts January 2009 Delburn 1983 Victoria and South Australia including; February 2009 Churchill, Kilmore and Murrundindi, Dandenong Ranges east of Melbourne, Vectis (Horsham), Coleraine, Weerite, Redesdale, Macedon areas northwest of Melbourne Harkaway, Upper Ferntree Gully, Maiden Gully / Eaglehawk, Lynbrook / Narre Warren, Beechworth 1997 Dandenong ranges, Creswick, Heathcote, Teddywaddy, Gough’s Bay Source: CFA 2012

Figure 3: Ten major bushfires in VIC that have damaged homes, property, land and resulted in loss of life since 1939 Page 7 Page BE PREPARED: CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE VICTORIAN BUSHFIRE THREAT

load and conducting fire suppression state (Haynes et al. 2010). Significant activities. Interventions such as total bushfires in Victoria’s recent history fire ban days also play a pivotal role in that have damaged property and reducing ignitions under dangerous fire resulted in loss of life include the conditions (Climate Council 2014a). Ash Wednesday and Black Saturday Victoria is no stranger to bushfires. The fires (see Figure 3 and Table 2). state has been affected by bushfires Ash Wednesday occurred in February throughout its history (see Figure 3). A 1983 in Victoria and South Australia. study of significant Australian bushfires The fires claimed a total of 75 lives from 1900–2008 found that over half (47 in Victoria, 28 in South Australia) of all known fatalities due to bushfires and over 2,300 homes were destroyed in Australia have occurred in Victoria (BoM 2011). The Black Saturday bushfires (296 deaths). Extreme fires have also occurred in February 2009, killing destroyed and damaged property more 173 people and destroying over 2000 frequently in Victoria than in any other homes (CFA 2012).

Page 8 CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU 2. What is the link between bushfires and climate change?

Figure 4: Aftermath of the Black Saturday bushfires, Victoria

A fire needs to be started (ignition), The role of climate change in ignition it needs something to burn (fuel) and is likely to be relatively small compared it needs conditions that are conducive to the fuel and weather, but may still to its spread (weather) (Section 1). be significant. For example, lightning Climate change can affect all of these accounts for about 25% of the ignitions factors in both straightforward and in Victoria (Attiwill and Adams 2011) and more complex ways. the incidence of lightning is sensitive

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to weather conditions, including atmosphere – and the incidence of very temperature (Jayaratne and Kuleshov hot days. Put simply, climate change is 2006). Climate change can also affect increasing the frequency and severity fuel. For example, a lack of rainfall can of very hot days (IPCC 2012; 2013), and dry out the soil and vegetation, making is driving up the likelihood of very high existing fuel more combustible. But fire danger weather (see Section 3). The whilst climate change can affect ignition Black Saturday fires in Victoria were and fuel, it is the impact of climate preceded by a decade-long drought with change on weather that has the most a string of record hot years, coupled significant influence on fire activity with a severe heatwave in the preceding (Climate Council 2014a). week. The weather conditions on Very hot, dry and windy days create February 7th broke temperature records, very high bushfire risk. The most direct with maximum temperatures up to link between bushfires and climate 23°C above the February average in change therefore comes from the Victoria and record high temperatures relationship between the long-term for February set in over 87% of the state trend towards a warmer climate due to (BoM 2009a; BoM 2009b). In addition the increasing greenhouse gas emissions FFDI ranged from 120 to 190, the highest – the increasing amount of heat in the vales ever recorded (Karoly 2009).

Page 10 CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU Figure 5: Climate change and the bushfire threat in Victoria

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It is important to note that climate climate change is the wrong question. change is already increasing the All extreme weather events are now intensity and frequency of many being influenced by climate change extreme events such as very hot days because they are occurring in a climate and droughts. The strength of trends system that is hotter and moister than and the confidence in their attribution, it was 50 years ago (Trenberth 2012). however, varies between regions and The latest IPCC report confirms with between different types of event (IPCC high confidence (95% likelihood) that 2012; 2013; 2014). Extreme weather climate change is expected to increase events, like bushfires, are influenced by the number of days with very high and a number of different factors. That’s why extreme fire weather, particularly in asking if a weather event is “caused” by southern Australia (IPCC 2014).

“Climate change is expected to increase the number of days with very high and extreme fire weather, particularly in southern Australia”.

Page 12 CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU 3. Observations of changing bushfire danger weather in Victoria

Increasing hot days, heatwaves and For example, in Melbourne from rainfall deficiencies in Victoria are 1951–2011, the average intensity of driving up the likelihood of very high heatwaves has increased by 1.5°C fire danger weather in the state. and the average intensity of the peak While hot weather has always occurred day during a heatwave has increased in Australia’s southeast, it has become by 2°C (Climate Council 2014c). This more common and severe over the past has implications for bushfire danger few decades, including in Victoria (see weather; for example the heatwave Figure 7). The southeast of Australia prior to the 2009 Black Saturday has experienced significant warming bushfires was notable both for its during the last 50 years (Timbal et peak intensity and duration, with al. 2012). 2013 was the hottest year maximum temperatures up to 23°C on record and during the summer of above the February average in Victoria 2013–14 Victoria experienced its hottest (BoM 2009a; BoM 2009b). The IPCC four days on record from the 14–17th projects with virtual certainty that of January. Melbourne set a record for warming in Australia will continue four consecutive days at 41°C and above, throughout the 21st century and and two nights in a row at 27°C or above predicts with high confidence that (BoM 2014a; Climate Council 2014b). bushfire danger weather will increase Heatwaves in Victoria are increasing in most of southern Australia, in frequency, intensity and duration. including Victoria (IPCC 2014).

Figure 6: Cars destroyed in the Black Saturday bushfires, Victoria

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Figure 7: Victoria’s increasing heat (Australian Bureau of Meteorology). Blue bars indicate years where annual temperatures were below average, and red bars indicate years of above average temperatures.

Page 14 CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU “Rainfall has declined in southeast Australia over the last 20 years”.

Much of eastern Australia has become 25 percent decline in average rainfall in drier since the 1970s, with the southeast April and May (CSIRO & BoM 2014). It is experiencing a drying trend due to very likely that an increased incidence declines in rainfall combined with of drought in the southeast-coupled increased temperatures (BoM 2013; with consecutive hot and dry days – Climate Commission 2013). Since the will in turn result in longer fire seasons mid-1990s, southeast Australia has and an ever larger number of days of experienced a 15 percent decline in late extreme fire danger in coming decades autumn and early winter rainfall and a (e.g. Clarke et al. 2011; 2013).

“Bushfires continue to increase in number, burn for longer and affect larger areas of land”.

The concept of a ‘normal’ bushfire extreme fire weather since the 1970s, season is rapidly changing as bushfires as indicated by changes in the FFDI. continue to increase in number, burn The FFDI increased significantly at for longer and affect larger areas of land 16 of 38 weather stations across (Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Australia between 1973 and 2010, 2014a). The influence of hotter, drier with none of the stations recording a weather conditions on the likelihood significant decrease (Clarke et al. 2013). of bushfire spread in Victoria is These changes have been most marked captured by changes in the Forest Fire in spring, indicating a lengthening fire Danger Index (FFDI), an indicator of season across southern Australia, with extreme fire weather. Some regions of fire weather extending into October Australia, especially in the south and and March. The lengthening fire southeast (Victoria, South Australia season means that opportunities for and New South Wales) have already fuel reduction burning are decreasing experienced a significant increase in (Matthews et al. 2012).

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Victoria is currently experiencing season in different states. For the first persistent rainfall deficiencies, with time this outlook has been reissued severe deficiencies (lowest 5% of records) (November 2014) due to unseasonably emerging in parts of Victoria over the hot, dry weather in Australia’s southeast last 11-months. Below average October (See Figure 8). Victoria’s 2014–15 bushfire rainfall across much of eastern Australia season outlook has been upgraded has also worsened rainfall deficiencies from an above normal fire season over the last four months in northern to a major fire season. All Victorian Victoria (BoM 2014b). districts, except the Mallee and East The Australia Seasonal Bushfire Outlook Gippsland, may expect above normal for 2014–15, issued in September 2014, fire potential (Bushfire and Natural anticipates the severity of the bushfire Hazards CRC 2014b).

Figure 8: The Updated Australia Seasonal Bushfire Outlook (Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC 2014b)

Page 16 CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU 4. Future projections of fire activity in southeast Australia

Research aimed at understanding future actual fire activity in southeast and fire activity in Australia’s southeast central Australia (Williams and Karoly has a long history (Table 1). While the 1999; Verdon et al. 2004; Lucas 2005; detailed results of these studies vary due Harris et al. 2013). Significant changes to the use of different global circulation have occurred in the nature of ENSO models (GCMs) and different emission since the 1970s, with the phenomenon scenarios, their collective conclusion is being more active and intense during clear – weather conditions conducive the 1979–2009 period than at any other to fire in the southeast and southwest of time in the past 600 years (Aiken et al. the continent are becoming increasingly 2013). It is likely that climate change is frequent and this trend will continue. and will continue to influence ENSO From the 1980s scientist’s projections behaviour, although there is currently have demonstrated that bushfire no consensus on the nature, extent conditions would be elevated as global or direction of this influence. Recent temperatures increased from rising projections suggest increases in El greenhouse gases. Niño-driven drying in the western Future changes in the El Niño-Southern Pacific Ocean by mid-to late 21st century Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon are (Power et al. 2013); such a change would also likely to have an influence on increase the incidence of heat and fire activity. El Niño events worsen drought, and potentially increase fire fire weather conditions and increase activity in eastern Australia.

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SUMMARY OF PROJECTIONS FROM MODELLING STUDIES INVESTIGATING CHANGES IN FIRE RISK IN SOUTHEAST AUSTRALIA.

Study Projections

Beer et al. (1988) 10%–20% increase in FFDI in southeast Australia

Beer and Williams (1995) Increase in FFDI with doubling of atmospheric CO2, commonly >10% across most of continent, especially in the southeast, with a few small areas showing decreases Williams et al. (2001) General trend towards decreasing frequency of low and moderate fire danger rating days, but an increasing frequency of very high and in some cases extreme fire danger days Hennessy (2007) Potential increase of very high and extreme FFDI days 4%–25% by 2020, 15%–70% by 2050 Lucas et al. (2007) Increases in annual FFDI of up to 30% by 2050 over historical levels in southeast Australia and up to a trebling in the number of days per year where the uppermost values of the index are exceeded. The largest changes projected to occur in the arid and semi-arid interior of NSW and northern Victoria. Hasson et al. (2009) Analysed likelihood of increase in incidence of synoptic weather pattern in southeast Australia known to be associated with extreme fire events. Projected potential frequency of extreme events to increase from around 1 event every 2 years during the late 20th century to around 1 event per year in the middle of the 21st century, and to around 1 to 2 events per year by the end of the 21st century Clarke et al. (2011) FFDI projected to decrease or show little change in the tropical northeast. In the southeast, FFDI projected to increase strongly by end of the 21st century, with the fire season extending in length and starting earlier Matthews et al. (2012) Warming and drying climate projected to produce drier, more flammable fuel, and to increase rate of fire spread Jones et al. (2013) Projected increases in FFDI for Melbourne area

Table 1: Summary of projections from modelling studies investigating changes in fire risk in southeast Australia.

Page 18 CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU 5. Impacts of Bushfires in Victoria

Bushfires have had a very (296 deaths) (Haynes et al. 2010). The wide range of human and Black Saturday bushfires in Victoria in environmental impacts, including February 2009 accounted for 173 deaths, loss of life and severe health ranking as one of the world’s ten most effects, damage to property, deadly recorded bushfires (Teague devastation of communities et al. 2010). A large proportion of the and effects on water and natural fatalities (44%) were children younger ecosystems (Stephenson 2010). than 12 years old, people over 70 years and those with either chronic or acute disabilities (O’Neill and Handmer 2012). 5.1 Health Impacts In addition to fatalities, bushfire smoke can seriously affect health. Smoke contains not only respiratory “From 1900–2008 irritants, but also inflammatory and cancer‑causing chemicals over half of all known (Bernstein and Rice 2013). Smoke can be transported in the atmosphere for hundreds or even thousands of bushfire fatalities in kilometres from the fire front, exposing large populations to its impacts Australia occurred (Spracklen et al. 2009; Dennekamp and Abramson 2011; Bernstein and in Victoria”. Rice 2013). For example in Melbourne, cardiac arrests outside hospitals increase by almost 50% on bushfire smoke- Populations in Victoria are at risk from affected days (Dennekamp et al. 2011). the health impacts of bushfires, which Firefighters are also faced with higher have contributed to physical and mental risks to their long-term health with an illness as well as death. elevated chance of developing a variety Tragically, in Australia bushfires have of cancers (Youakim 2006). The impacts accounted for more than 800 deaths of bushfire smoke in the community are since 1850 (Cameron et al. 2009; King also uneven, with the elderly, infants and et al. 2013), with more than half of the those with chronic heart or lung diseases deaths (1900–2008) occurring in Victoria at higher risk (Morgan et al. 2010).

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In addition to physical health impacts, major depressive episodes and increased the trauma and stress of experiencing a alcohol use (Bryant et al. 2014). A study bushfire can also increase depression, of over 1500 people who experienced anxiety, and other mental health issues, losses in the 1983 Ash Wednesday both in the immediate aftermath of bushfires found that after 12 months, the trauma and for months or years 42% were suffering a decline in mental afterwards (McFarlane and Raphael 1984; health (“psychiatric morbidity”) Sim 2002; Whittaker et al. 2012). For (McFarlane et al. 1997). PTSD, major example, a study conducted 3–4 years depression, anxiety and suicide can also after the Black Saturday bushfires in manifest among firefighters, sometimes Victoria found that some members of only becoming evident many months the affected community developed after an extreme event (McFarlane 1988; Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD), Cook et al. 2013).

Figure 9: Bushfire smoke blankets Melbourne in 2006

Page 20 CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU 5.2 Economic Costs

The economic cost of bushfires – reaching $378 million (Deloitte Access including loss of life, livelihoods, Economics 2014). These estimates take property damage and emergency into account increases in the number services responses – is very high. of households, growth in the value The total economic cost of bushfires, a of housing stock, population growth measure that includes insured losses as and increasing infrastructure density. well as broader social costs, is estimated These estimates do not, however, to be $337 million per year in Australia include the potential for climate (2011$), a figure that is expected to reach change to increase bushfire frequency $800 million by around 2050 (Deloitte or intensity, so must be considered Access Economics 2014). The total conservative. Even though Victoria economic costs of bushfires in Victoria comprises only 3% of the country’s for 2014 are projected to be $172 million landmass, it has sustained around (2011$). By about mid century these 50% of the economic damage from costs will more than double, potentially bushfires (Buxton et al. 2011).

“Even though Victoria comprises only 3% of the country’s landmass, it has sustained around 50% of the economic damage from bushfires”.

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RECORDED LOSSES FROM MAJOR BUSHFIRE EVENTS IN VICTORIA SINCE 1939

Date FIRE Location LOSSES (including Deaths SIGNIFICANT EVENT residential property, INSURED stock) LOSSES (normalised to 2011 values)1 1939 Black Friday Widespread across 1000+ homes 71 n/a Victoria including; (ABS 2004; AIC 2004) (AIC 2004; Warburton, Reuters 2009) Erica, Rubicon, Dromana, Manfield, the Otway ranges and the Grampian Ranges. 1977 Victoria, Western >100 homes 4 $ 101 million Districts (CFA 2012) (CFA 2012) (ICA 2013) 1983 Ash Victoria and >2,300 homes 75 $1.796 billion South Australia (Ramsay et al. 1996; AIC (AIC 2004; (ICA 2013) Wednesday including; 2004; McAeney et al 2009) Reuters 2009) Dandenong Ranges east of Melbourne, >200,000 stock Macedon areas (Ramsay et al. 1996; AIC northwest of 2004) Melbourne 2003 Gippsland Victoria, North >41 homes 0 $24 million East and Fires (CFA 2012) (ICA 2013) Gippsland fires >10,000 livestock (CFA 2012) 2006 Grampians Victoria, > 40 homes 2 $28 million Grampian ranges Fires >65,000 stock (CFA 2012) (ICA 2013) (CFA 2012) 2009 Black Churchill, Kilmore >2000 houses 173 $ 1.266 and Murrundindi, (CFA 2012; Stephenson et (Teague et al. billion Saturday Vectis (Horsham), al. 2013) 2010; Stephenson (ICA 2013) Coleraine, Weerite, et al 2013) Redesdale, Harkaway, Upper 8000–11,800 Ferntree Gully, stock Maiden Gully (Teague et al 2010; / Eaglehawk, Stephenson et al. 2013) Lynbrook / Narre Warren, Beechworth

Table 2: Recorded losses from major 1. Insured losses shown have been normalized to 2011 values bushfire events in Victoria since 1939. (taking inflation and wealth changes into account).

Page 22 CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU Bushfires can cause direct damage A study by Keating and Handmer to properties; for example, the Black (2013) provides one of the few full Saturday bushfires destroyed over 2000 economic assessments of bushfire homes (see Table 2). Infrastructure impacts on primary industry. This such as powerlines and roads can study conservatively estimated that also be damaged. In the 2003 alpine bushfires directly cost the Victorian fires in Victoria, for example, about agricultural industry around $42 million 4,500 km of roads were damaged and per year. When business disruption local businesses reported a 50–100% was included more broadly, the costs economic downturn in the fire to the entire Victorian economy aftermath (Stephenson 2010). from this impact were estimated to Bushfires have significant impacts in be $92 million per year. A similar farming areas. For example, livestock analysis for the Victorian timber losses were estimated at 13,000 in the industry estimated direct costs at 2003 Alpine fires in Victoria, 65,000 in $74 million per year, and state-wide the 2005–6 Grampians fire and more costs at $185 million (Keating and than 11,000 in the Black Saturday fires Handmer 2013). In the future, with no (Stephenson 2010; Teague et al. 2010). adaptive change, increased damage Stock that survives the initial bushfires to the agricultural industry in Victoria can face starvation in the post-fire by 2050 could add $1.4 billion (or period, as well as threats from predators $46.6 million per year) to the existing due to the destruction of fences around costs of $92 million per year (Keating properties (Stephenson 2010). Over and Handmer 2013). Similarly, the 8,000 km of fences were lost in the Black additional cost of bushfires to the Saturday fires (Stephenson 2010). Smoke Victorian timber industry is estimated damage can also taint fruit and vegetable to be $2.85 billion ($96.2 million per year), crops, with wine grapes particularly over and above the present day estimate susceptible (Stephenson 2010). of $185 million per year.

“Bushfires directly cost the Victorian agricultural industry around $42 million per year”.

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It is important to note that these costs for volunteer fire fighters, economic losses do not account for fixed costs for bushfire fighting the full range of costs associated with services, government contributions bushfires – few attempts have been for rebuilding and compensation, made to account for loss of life, social impacts on health, and ecosystem disruption and trauma, opportunity services (King et al. 2013).

Figure 10: A firefighter observes the wreckage of a home in Kinglake, Victoria

Page 24 CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU 5.3 Environmental Impacts

Fire can affect the quality and quantity of water in catchments and have significant impacts on ecosystems.

5.3.1 IMPACT ON WATER usually uses more water than the mature QUALITY AND QUANTITY trees they have replaced (Langford 1976, Feikema et al. 2013). Seven years after Large-scale high intensity fires that the 2003 fires in the mountain ash remove vegetation expose topsoils forests of Victoria, the regrowth was still to erosion and increased runoff after using twice the water of adjacent mature subsequent rainfall (Shakesby et al. forest (Buckley et al. 2012). This pattern, 2007). This can increase sediment known as the “Kuczera effect”, can last and nutrient concentrations in nearby for several decades after a fire, with water waterways, potentially making water supplies unfit for human consumption yields from forested catchments being (Smith et al. 2011; IPCC 2014). During the reduced by up to 50% (Kuczera 1985; Black Saturday fires 10 billion litres of Brookhouse et al. 2013). Fires can also Melbourne’s drinking water was pumped affect water infrastructure; the Black to safer storage locations because of fears Saturday bushfires in 2009 affected it would be contaminated (Johnston about 30% of the catchments that 2009). Fire also has longer-term affects supply Melbourne’s drinking water. on water flow in forested catchments. Melbourne Water estimated the Immediately after the fire there may post ‑fire recovery costs, including be an increase in water flow. But as water ‑monitoring programs, to be the forests regenerate, the new growth over $2 billion (WRF 2013).

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Figure 11: Bushfire smoke at the Upper Yarra Dam, Victoria.

5.3.2 IMPACTS ON ECOSYSTEMS and disadvantage others. If fires are too frequent, plant species can become Fire is a regular occurrence in many vulnerable to local extinction as the Australian ecosystems, and many supply of seeds in the soil declines. species have evolved strategies over Conversely, if the interval between fires millions of years to not only withstand is too long, plant species that rely on fire fire, but to benefit from it (Crisp et al. for reproduction may be eliminated from 2011; Bowman et al. 2012). Fire does not “destroy” bushland, as is often reported; an ecological community. Animals are rather, it acts as a major disturbance also affected by bushfires, for example with a range of complex impacts on if they are restricted to localised habitats different species and communities. and cannot move quickly, and/or Particular fire regimes (especially reproduce slowly, they may be at risk specific combinations of fire frequency from intense large-scale fires that occur and intensity) can favour some species at short intervals (Yates et al. 2008).

Page 26 CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU Ecosystems in which the natural fire et al. 2011; Bowman et al. 2013). This interval is very long (>100 years) can change in vegetation has important undergo substantial change if the fire flow-on effects for other species, frequency increases. After successive especially the ~40 vertebrate species that fires in 2003 and 2006–7 in Victoria, rely on the hollows of 120–150 year old Acacia shrublands have replaced mountain ash trees for habitat, such as some mountain and alpine ash forests the endangered Leadbeater’s possum; because there was insufficient time an estimated 42% of the possum’s between fires for the ash trees to become habitat was burned in the 2009 bushfires reproductively mature (Lindenmayer (Lindenmayer 2013) (Figure 12).

Figure 12: The Black Saturday 2009 bushfires affected much of the habitat of the already endangered Leadbeater’s possum.

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6. Implications of increasing fire activity

“Melbourne’s rural-urban fringe is among the most vulnerable in the world to the bushfire hazard”.

The risk that bushfires pose to people are The increasing population and built particularly acute in southern Australia, assets, coupled with increasing fire where large populations live close to danger weather, present significant highly flammable native vegetation and growing challenges for the state. that is exposed to frequent severe fire Already fire prone regions are becoming weather. The population of Victoria more fire prone and risks to lives and could potentially grow to 10 million property continue to increase in parts by 2051, with 2.2 million in Victoria’s of Victoria. Hard decisions will have to regions and 7.8 million in Greater be made about the on-going livability Melbourne (Victorian Government of those regions, as they become 2014). Melbourne’s rural-urban fringe increasingly dangerous to live in. is among the most vulnerable in the world to the bushfire hazard (Buxton et The economic, social and environmental al. 2011). The population of Melbourne costs of increasing bushfire activity is continuing to spread, encroaching in Victoria are potentially immense. into surrounding bushland, increasing As noted in Section 5.2, an analyses risk to life and property from bushfires. of projected costs of bushfires in For example, many of the homes Victoria by Deloitte Access Economics destroyed in Marysville and Kingslake, (2014) forecast that bushfires in Victoria two communities devastated by the could cost $378 million by about 2009 Victorian bushfires, were either mid‑century (2011$), based only on surrounded by or located less than population and asset increases, but 10 metres from bushland (Chen and not including increased risk due to McAneney 2010; Crompton et al. 2010). climate change.

Page 28 CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU “The economic, social and environmental costs of increasing bushfire activity in Victoria are potentially immense”.

There is increasing interest in Adams 2013; Altangerel and Kull 2013). In how adaptation to an increasingly the wake of the Black Saturday bushfires, bushfire‑prone world may reduce the Royal Commission recommended vulnerability. Current initiatives centre treating at least 5% of Victorian on planning and regulations, building public land per year (and up to 8%) by designs to reduce flammability, burying prescribed burning (Teague et al. 2010). powerlines in high risk areas, retrofitting The “5% solution” is being imported electricity systems, fuel management, to some other states, even though fire fire detection and suppression, improved ecologists stress that the frequency and early warning systems, and community amount of prescribed burning required education (Preston et al. 2009; Buxton to reduce risk varies greatly between et al. 2011; O’Neill and Handmer 2012; different landscapes (Penman et al. King et al. 2013). Responses to bushfires 2011; Williams and Bowman 2012). The can be controversial, particularly the Tasmania Bushfire Inquiry noted that a practice of prescribed burning, where strategic approach to prescribed burning fires are lit in cool weather to reduce was “preferable to a quantitative target” the volume of fuel. Fire managers are (TBI 2013). The prospect of increasing constantly faced with the challenge of fire risk as the climate warms brings balancing the need to reduce risk to the prescribed burning issue into even life and property whilst simultaneously sharper focus. The increasing length of conserving biodiversity and the fire season will reduce the window environmental amenity, and controlling of opportunity for hazard reduction at air pollution near urban areas (Penman the same time as the need for hazard et al. 2011; Williams and Bowman 2012; reduction becomes greater.

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“Australia’s fire and emergency services agencies have recognised the implications of climate change for bushfire risk and fire-fighting resources for some time”.

Australia’s fire and emergency increase in the number of both services agencies have recognised professional and volunteer firefighters the implications of climate change for will be needed. To keep pace with bushfire risk and fire-fighting resources asset growth and population, it has for some time (AFAC 2009; 2010). been estimated that the number of Longer fire seasons have implications professional firefighters in Victoria for the availability and costs of fire- will need to increase from approximately fighting equipment that is leased from 2,400 in 2010 to 3,000 by 2020 and fire fighting agencies in the Northern 3,700 by 2030. When the increased Hemisphere. As fire seasons in the two incidence of extreme fire weather hemispheres increasingly overlap, such under a realistic warming scenario is arrangements may become increasingly also taken into account, a further 500 impractical (Handmer et al. 2012). firefighters will be needed by 2020, and Substantially increased resources for 900 by 2030 – this represents an overall fire suppression and control will be doubling of numbers compared to 2010 required. Most importantly, a significant (NIEIR 2013).

Page 30 CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU “In Victoria the number of professional firefighters will need to double by 2030, to keep pace with increased population, asset growth, and fire risk from climate change”.

Figure 13: The Victorian Country Fire Authority on patrol

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7. This is the Critical Decade

The impacts of climate change are impacts as the temperature rises. For already being observed. Sea levels Victoria, these impacts include increased are rising, oceans are becoming fire danger weather and longer bushfire more acidic, and heatwaves seasons. Ensuring that this guardrail is have become longer and hotter. not exceeded will prevent even worse Greenhouse gases from human impacts from occurring. activities, particularly the burning The evidence is clear and compelling. of fossil fuels, is the primary cause The trend of increasing global emissions for the changes in climate over the must be halted within the next few past half-century (IPCC 2013; 2014). years and emissions must be trending downwards by 2020. Investment in Projections of future climate change renewable, clean energy must therefore and its impacts have convinced nations increase rapidly. And, critically, most that the global average temperature, now of the known fossil fuel reserves must at 0.9°C above the pre-industrial level, remain in the ground. must not be allowed to rise beyond 2°C – the so-called ‘2°C guardrail’. Societies This is the critical decade to get on will have to adapt to even more serious with the job.

Page 32 CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU References

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Cover Photo: “Regions of Sorrow” by Flickr user elizabethdonoghue licensed under CC BY-NC-ND 2.0. Page 4: Figure 1 “Trees burnt in Bullumwaal, Victoria” by Flickr user Sascha Grant licensed under CC –NC-ND 2.0. Page 9: Figure 4 “ Aftermath of the Black Saturday bushfires, Victoria” by Flickr user Paul Hocksenar licensed under CC by –NC–SA 2.0. Page 13: Figure 6 “Cars destroyed in the Black Saturday bushfires, Victoria” by Flickr user Paul Hocksenar licensed under CC by –NC–SA 2.0. Page 16: Figure 8 “ Southern Australia Seasonal Bushfire Outlook 2014–15: November Update” by Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre (2014). Page 20: Figure 9 “Bushfire smoke blankets Melbourne in 2006” by Flickr user Milkwood.net licensed under CC by –NC-SA 2.0. Page 24: Figure 10 “ A firefighter observes the wreckage of a home in Kinglake, Victoria” by Flickr user Neil Creek licensed under CC by –NC-ND 2.0. Page 26: Figure 11 “Bushfire smoke at the Upper Yarra Dam, Victoria” by Flickr user Mick Stanic licensed under CC by –NC 2.0. Page 27: Figure 12 “The Black Saturday 2009 bushfires affected much of the habitat of the already endangered Leadbeater’s possum” by Flickr user Greens MPs (photo D. Harley) licensed under CC by –NC-ND 2.0. Page 31: Figure 13 “The Victorian Country Fire Authority on patrol” by Flickr user Sascha Grant licensed under CC by –NC-ND 2.0. Preparing for a Bushfire in Victoria

IN AN EMERGENCY, CALL TRIPLE ZERO (000) (106 FOR PEOPLE WITH A HEARING OR SPEECH IMPAIRMENT) 000

What can I do to prepare for a bushfire? INFORM YOURSELF The Victorian Country Fire Service has the resources available to help you prepare for a bushfire. Use these resources to inform yourself and your family.

ASSESS YOUR LEVEL OF RISK The excellent resources of the Victorian Country Fire Service are available to assist you to assess your level of risk from bushfire. Take advantage of them. Visit: http://www.cfa.vic.gov.au/plan-prepare/am-I-at-risk/

MAKE A BUSHFIRE SURVIVAL PLAN Even if your household is not at high risk from bushfire (such as suburbs over 1 km from bushland), you should still educate yourself about bushfires, and take steps to protect yourself and your property. Access the bushfire ready self assessment tool: http://www.cfa.vic.gov.au/plan-prepare/fire-ready-kit/

PREPARE YOUR PROPERTY Regardless of whether you decide to leave early or to stay and actively defend, you need to prepare your property for bushfire, An important consideration is retrofitting older houses to bring them in alignment with current building codes for fire risk and assessing the flammability of your garden. Use the Victorian Country Fire Service Fire Ready Kit to help recognise exactly what you need to prepare your property: http://www.cfa.vic.gov.au/plan-prepare/fire-ready-kit/

PREPARE YOURSELF AND YOUR FAMILY Preparation is not only about the physical steps you take to prepare – e.g., preparing your house and making a bushfire survival plan. Preparing yourself and your family also involves considering your physical, mental and emotional preparedness for a bushfire and its effects. Take the time to talk to your family and to thoroughly prepare yourself on all levels.

Key Links VIC CFS: Fire Ready Kit Fire Watch Map: http://www.cfa.vic.gov.au/ http://www.cfa.vic.gov.au/ http://myfirewatch.landgate. 1800 240 667 plan-prepare/fire-ready-kit/ wa.gov.au/