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THE EVOLUTION of IAEA SAFEGUARDS the Following States Are Members of the International Atomic Energy Agency

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THE EVOLUTION of IAEA SAFEGUARDS the Following States Are Members of the International Atomic Energy Agency THE EVOLUTION OF IAEA SAFEGUARDS The following States are Members of the International Atomic Energy Agency: AFGHANISTAN HAITI PARAGUAY ALBANIA HOLY SEE PERU ALGERIA HUNGARY PHILIPPINES ARGENTINA ICELAND POLAND ARMENIA INDIA PORTUGAL AUSTRALIA INDONESIA QATAR AUSTRIA IRAN, ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA BANGLADESH IRAQ ROMANIA BELARUS IRELAND RUSSIAN FEDERATION BELGIUM ISRAEL SAUDI ARABIA BOLIVIA ITALY SENEGAL BOSNIA AND JAMAICA SIERRA LEONE HERZEGOVINA JAPAN SINGAPORE BRAZIL JORDAN SLOVAKIA BULGARIA KAZAKHSTAN SLOVENIA BURKINA FASO KENYA SOUTH AFRICA CAMBODIA KOREA, REPUBLIC OF SPAIN CAMEROON KUWAIT SRI LANKA CANADA LATVIA SUDAN CHILE LEBANON SWEDEN CHINA LIBERIA SWITZERLAND COLOMBIA LIBYAN ARAB JAMAHIRIYA SYRIAN ARAB REPUBLIC COSTA RICA LIECHTENSTEIN THAILAND CÔTE D’IVOIRE LITHUANIA THE FORMER YUGOSLAV CROATIA LUXEMBOURG REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA CUBA MADAGASCAR TUNISIA CYPRUS MALAYSIA TURKEY CZECH REPUBLIC MALI UGANDA DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC MALTA UKRAINE OF THE CONGO MARSHALL ISLANDS UNITED ARAB EMIRATES DENMARK MAURITIUS UNITED KINGDOM OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MEXICO GREAT BRITAIN AND ECUADOR MONACO NORTHERN IRELAND EGYPT MONGOLIA UNITED REPUBLIC EL SALVADOR MOROCCO OF TANZANIA ESTONIA MYANMAR UNITED STATES ETHIOPIA NAMIBIA OF AMERICA FINLAND NETHERLANDS URUGUAY FRANCE NEW ZEALAND UZBEKISTAN GABON NICARAGUA VENEZUELA GEORGIA NIGER VIET NAM GERMANY NIGERIA YEMEN GHANA NORWAY YUGOSLAVIA GREECE PAKISTAN ZAMBIA GUATEMALA PANAMA ZIMBABWE The Agency’s Statute was approved on 23 October 1956 by the Conference on the Statute of the IAEA held at United Nations Headquarters, New York; it entered into force on 29 July 1957. The Headquarters of the Agency are situated in Vienna. Its principal objective is “to accelerate and enlarge the contribution of atomic energy to peace, health and prosperity throughout the world’’. © IAEA, 1998 Permission to reproduce or translate the information contained in this publication may be obtained by writing to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Wagramerstrasse 5, P.O. Box 100, A-1400 Vienna, Austria. Printed by the IAEA in Austria November 1998 IAEA/NVS/2 INTERNATIONAL NUCLEAR VERIFICATION SERIES No. 2 THE EVOLUTION OF IAEA SAFEGUARDS INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY VIENNA, 1998 EDITORIAL NOTE Although great care has been taken to maintain the accuracy of information contained in this publication, neither the IAEA nor its Member States assume any responsibility for consequences which may arise from its use. The mention of names of specific companies or products (whether or not indicated as registered) does not imply any intention to infringe proprietary rights, nor should it be construed as an endorsement or recommendation on the part of the IAEA. Foreword This is the second in a new series of booklets dealing with IAEA safeguards. The booklets are intended for persons professionally interested in the subject, such as government officials having responsibilities relating to non- proliferation or to the management of nuclear facilities, and for the practitioners of safeguards — the international and national officials charged with implementing IAEA safeguards.a This particular booklet is also aimed at the broader public concerned about the spread of nuclear weapons and interested in nuclear arms control and disarmament. It presents the situation as IAEA safeguards make a ‘quantum jump’ into a new phase, characterized by the IAEA as the Strengthened Safeguards System. To the newcomer the term ‘IAEA safeguards’ may sound vague and remote, of interest chiefly to a limited group of specialists. In fact, the evolution of IAEA safeguards is one of the most engrossing historical processes that have taken place since the Second World War — in effect the story of a more than fifty year long international endeavour, vital in the long term for humanity’s survival, to keep nuclear weapons within the cage in which they have been confined by 1970 and eventually to do away with them entirely. Despite several setbacks this endeavour has been a success. Since the end of the Cold War the focus of nuclear controls has begun to shift from stopping the further spread of nuclear weapons — although this remains their cardinal objective — to a step-by-step ban on the testing and production of all nuclear explosives and, eventually, their total elimination. As the Director General of the IAEA put it in June 1998, “we need …to reaffirm our course of action: no nuclear tests, no new weaponization or deployment of nuclear weapons; a working system of global and regional security; and nuclear disarmament not a The first in the current series is Safeguards Techniques and Equipment, Inter- national Verification Series No. 1 (1997). In 1981 and 1983 the IAEAalso published two booklets entitled IAEA Safeguards: An Introduction and IAEA Safeguards: Aims, Limitations, Achievements (IAEA/SG/INF/3 and IAEA/SG/INF/4). While this material is now largely out of date these booklets retain some interest since they show how the IAEA perceived its safeguards operations before the challenges with which the Agency was faced in Iraq and the Democratic Poeple’s Republic of Korea in the early 1990s. The reader’s attention is also drawn to the IAEA Safeguards Glossary, 1987 Edition, IAEA/SG/INF/1 (Rev. 1), a revised version of which will be published in the present series. a day too soon”.b But, as the nuclear tests of May 1998 have shown, the chains that constrain the spread of nuclear weapons have their weak links and the threat of nuclear proliferation and the danger of nuclear war, though greatly reduced, are still with us. b ELBARADEI, M., Director General of the IAEA, Statement to the IAEA Board of Governors, 8 June 1998. Contents INTRODUCTION . 1 I. INTERNATIONAL SAFEGUARDS: 1945–1998 . 6 The first attempts at international control . 8 Item specific safeguards: INFCIRC/26 and INFCIRC/66/Rev. 2 . 9 The emergence of treaties requiring comprehensive safeguards: The NPT and the regional treaties . 11 Regional treaties . 16 Challenges to the NPT and IAEA safeguards . 17 The initial report of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) . 21 The first use of international safeguards to monitor nuclear disarmament . 23 Negotiation and approval of INFCIRC/540 . 24 The position in mid-1998 . 28 II. THE AIMS AND LIMITATIONS OF IAEA SAFEGUARDS . 30 A. The Aims of IAEA Safeguards . 30 The political aim of IAEA safeguards . 30 The technical aim of IAEA safeguards . 32 B. Limitations on the Scope and Effectiveness of Safeguards . 33 Acceptance is voluntary . 33 Activating safeguards . 34 Sounding an alarm . 34 Constraints on inspections . 35 Non-discrimination . 36 The problems of theft, smuggling and other illegal acts of individuals . 37 Budgetary restrictions . 38 III. HOW SAFEGUARDS WORK IN PRACTICE . 39 A. Legal and Administrative Arrangements . 39 The organization of safeguards . 39 The legal action that triggers safeguards . 40 Agreements under INFCIRC/153 alone and agreements under INFCIRC/153 as amplified by INFCIRC/540 . 42 Sanctions . 42 Subsidiary arrangements and facility attachments . 44 Designation of inspectors . 45 The State's System of Accounting for and the Control of Nuclear Materials (SSAC) . 45 The provision of information about safeguards and the protection of safeguards information . 47 IAEA statements to national safeguards authorities . 48 B. Principles Underlying the Application of Safeguards to Declared Nuclear Material . 48 Tailoring safeguards to different fuel cycles . 48 The starting point of safeguards . 49 Nuclear materials accountancy . 50 The technical objective of safeguards on declared nuclear material . 52 ‘Timely detection’ . 52 ‘Significant quantity’ . 53 ‘Containment’ and ‘surveillance’ . 53 Safeguards approaches for declared nuclear material: ‘diversion strategies’ . 54 ‘Safeguards criteria’ . 54 ‘Inspection goals’ . 55 Implementing safeguards agreements under INFCIRC/153 . 56 C. Principles Underlying the Application of Safeguards to Detect Clandestine Operations . 56 The new approach: The State as well as the facility . 56 Approach to the evaluation of States’ nuclear activities . 58 IV. NEW CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES . 59 A. Further Optimization of Current Safeguards . 59 Enhancing cost effectiveness . 59 Applying new safeguards technologies . 59 B. Realizing the Promise of the Additional Protocol . 61 The impact of INFCIRC/540 . 61 The implementation of INFCIRC/540 . 62 ‘Universality’ of INFCIRC/540 . 63 The integration of safeguards under INFCIRC/153 and INFCIRC/540 . 63 C. Verification of Certain Specific Measures of Nuclear Disarmament . 64 Placing former military material under international surveillance . 64 Verification of a cut-off . 65 Verification requirements of additional nuclear weapon free zones . 66 Co-operation with other international verification agencies . 66 D. Progress in Disarmament and its Verification . 67 Steps towards universal acceptance of international inspection . 67 ANNEX 1: THE IAEA AND THE WAY IT WORKS . 70 ANNEX 2: THE CONTROL OF NUCLEAR EXPORTS . 72 PICTURE DESCRIPTIONS . 75 BLANK INTRODUCTION Safeguards have gone through three major phases. The first began in the late 1950s and the 1960s as nations started to trade in nuclear plants and fuel. The safeguards of that time were designed chiefly to ensure that this trade did not lead to the spread of nuclear weapons. The second phase reflected a growing perception that, “pending nuclear disarmament, world security is better served with fewer rather than more nuclear weapons and nuclear weapon States”.1 This found
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