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EDMONTON, AB Retail Q2 2020 MARKETBEAT EDMONTON, AB Retail Q2 2020 YoY 12-Mo. ECONOMY Chg Forecast Edmonton’s economic outlook took a dramatic turn at the end of the first quarter of the year due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic and its damaging effect on all sectors of the economy. These unprecedented times have resulted in a snowball effect worldwide, causing business $90,354 closures, mass layoffs, volatile oil prices, and economic uncertainty and slowdown. Edmonton employment, where the pandemic’s impact in the Median HH Income economy was first observed in mid-March, lost 48,200 positions across all industries between April and May 2020, while the unemployment rate climbed to 13.6% from 10.0% during the same period. In response to these difficult times, the Government of Alberta has announced several 1.8% policies and initiatives to create jobs, an example is increased spending on infrastructure projects. Edmonton’s year-to-date non-residential 2020F Population Growth construction permits declined by 3.2% year-over-year (YoY) with industrial increasing by 21.0% and commercial decreasing by 12.8%. DEMAND 13.6% Due to mass closures, reduced business hours, and changing consumer habits, retail sales in Edmonton for April 2020 decreased by 13.4% Unemployment Rate month-over-month, and by 31.8% year-over-year. Edmonton retail vacancy is expected to continue to increase in the coming months as both Sources: Statistics Canada, Sitewise, Oxford Analytics international and local brands exit the market, some in large part the result of financial pressures caused by the pandemic. Some of these closures include the 168,000-square foot Hudson’s Bay store exiting its downtown Edmonton location in Fall 2020, and downsizing of retailers such as DavidsTea, Starbucks, Victoria’s Secret, Bath & Body Works, Reitmans, Aldo, Stokes, and Frank & Oak. Other stores such as Bose, EDMONTON ECONOMIC INDICATORS Things Engraved, Microsoft, Army & Navy, Pier 1, and Bench will shutter all locations in Canada. Q2 2020 On the flip side, grocery stores and supermarkets will continue to drive retail sales in the city as people prioritize purchasing essential items amid YoY 12-Mo. the pandemic. Most grocery store chains also offer convenience options such as online shopping and click-and-collect, contributing to the grocery Chg Forecast retailer’s success amid the pandemic. Furthermore, a discount grocery chain, FreshCo, is expanding to Western Canada with two new locations -5.6% opening in Spring 2021 in Edmonton. One is currently under construction at Tamarack, while the second location will be occupying the former GDP Growth Sobeys location at Heritage. 2020F OUTLOOK The COVID-19 pandemic brings an uncertain future for the retail industry in the city. There are small to large-size brick-and-mortar spaces $42.6B anticipated to come back to the market; however, these spaces may remain vacant until the economy regains some momentum. Right now, as Consumer Spending companies struggle with their sales and operating costs, they are also most likely to restructure their business models first to think ahead for 2020F long-term growth before committing to a retail space. In addition, the restaurant industry is also anticipated to remain negatively impacted by the pandemic as consumer’s restaurant spending plummets, and with reduced restaurant capacity due to the implementation of physical distancing. -13.4% Total receipts for food services and drinking places in April 2020 decreased by 56.3% YoY. MoM Retail Sales Growth ANNUAL RETAIL SALES (MILLIONS) PERSONAL DISPOSABLE INCOME GROWTH April 2020 9.0% $30,000 10% 5.5% 5.2% Sources: Statistics Canada, Conference Board of $25,000 5% Canada, Oxford Analytics 0.5% -0.2% 0.6% -1.3% $20,000 0% $15,000 -5% $10,000 -10% -9.9% -10.5% $5,000 -15% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F Sources: Statistics Canada, Oxford Analytics MARKETBEAT EDMONTON, AB Retail Q2 2020 KEY PROPERTIES UNDER CONSTRUCTION PROPERTY (Developer) SUBMARKET MAJOR TENANTS SF* PROPERTY TYPE Currents of Windermere Southwest Walmart, Cabela’s, Home Depot 1,200,000 Regional Centre Manning Town Centre & Village Northeast Canadian Tire, Lowe’s, Cabela’s 850,000 Regional Centre Harvest Pointe Shopping Centre Southeast Walmart, Sobeys 375,000 Regional Centre Heritage Valley Shopping Centre Southwest Superstore, Shoppers 303,472 Regional Centre Ice District Central Loblaws City Market, Rexall 300,000 Entertainment District Costco – Stony Plain Northwest Costco 127,000 Big-Box Store Windermere South Southwest Superstore 120,000 Regional Centre The Shopppes of Jagare Ridge Southwest Save-On-Foods, RBC, Shell, TD, Subway 119,650 Community Centre Grove on 17 Southeast Landmark Cinemas, Jiffy Lube, Wendy’s 107,000 Regional Centre Harvest Hills Southeast Superstore 97,000 Big-Box Store Ambleside West Southwest Ambleside Medical Inc., Cannabis House 92,000 Community Centre KEY LEASE TRANSACTIONS Q2 2020 RETAIL TEAM PROPERTY SUBMARKET TENANT SF TYPE +1 780 420 1177 [email protected] South Edmonton Common Southeast Furniture BLVD 31,234 Headlease Ice District Central The Canadian Brewhouse 24,031 Headlease cwedm.com Granville Station Southwest Ages & Stages Early Learning & Care Inc. 10,000 Headlease A CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD RESEARCH PUBLICATION Currents at Windermere Southwest The Canadian Brewhouse 7,250 Headlease Cushman & Wakefield (NYSE: CWK) is a leading global real estate services firm that delivers exceptional value for real estate occupiers and owners. Cushman & Wakefield is among the largest real estate services firms with KEY SALES TRANSACTIONS Q2 2020 approximately 53,000 employees in 400 offices and 60 countries. In 2019, the firm had revenue of $8.8 billion across PROPERTY SUBMARKET SELLER / BUYER SF PRICE / $ PSF core services of property, facilities and project management, Sun Life Assurance Company of Canada / 100 Mayfield Common Northwest 447,588 $56,000,000 / $250 leasing, capital markets, valuation and other services. To 1451945 Ontario Limited learn more, visit www.cushmanwakefield.com or follow Rundle Centre Ventures Ltd / 2231268 Alberta 3303 118 Avenue Northeast 29,991 $9,395,000 / $313 @CushWake on Twitter. Ltd Henday Station GP Ltd / J. Diamond Properties 21450 115 Avenue Northwest 2,654 & 2,255 $5,775,000 ©2020 Cushman & Wakefield. All rights reserved. The information Ltd contained within this report is gathered from multiple sources believed David R Little Holdings Ltd Et,al / MPRE GP 10505 81 Avenue Whyte Avenue 17,359 $4,150,000 / $239 to be reliable. The information may contain errors or omissions and is Dev Inc presented without any warranty or representations as to its accuracy. 1502 Lakewood Road West Southeast 1502 Holdings Inc / MPRE GP Dev Inc 14,426 $3,715,000 / $258.
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