Reinventing Space Conference 2018
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Journal of the British Interplanetary Society VOLUME 71 NO.11 NOVEMBER 2018 Reinventing Space Conference 2018 THE MARKET FOR A UK LAUNCHER Vadim Zakirov et al THE REMOVEDEBRIS SPACE HARPOON Alexander Hall RAPID CONSTELLATION DEPLOYMENT from the UK Christopher Loghry & Marissa Stender REDESIGN & SPACE QUALIFICATION OF A 3D-PRINTED SATELLITE STRUCTURE with Polietherimide Jonathan Becedas et al THE EPSILON LAUNCH VEHICLE: Status and Future Ryoma Yamashiro & Imoto Takayuki THE NORMS OF BEHAVIOUR IN SPACE: Our space – Whose rules? Lesley Jane Smith www.bis-space.com ISSN 0007-084X PUBLICATION DATE: 31 JANUARY 2019 Submitting papers International Advisory Board to JBIS JBIS welcomes the submission of technical Rachel Armstrong, Newcastle University, UK papers for publication dealing with technical Peter Bainum, Howard University, USA reviews, research, technology and engineering in astronautics and related fields. Stephen Baxter, Science & Science Fiction Writer, UK James Benford, Microwave Sciences, California, USA Text should be: James Biggs, The University of Strathclyde, UK ■ As concise as the content allows – typically 5,000 to 6,000 words. Shorter papers (Technical Notes) Anu Bowman, Foundation for Enterprise Development, California, USA will also be considered; longer papers will only Gerald Cleaver, Baylor University, USA be considered in exceptional circumstances – for Charles Cockell, University of Edinburgh, UK example, in the case of a major subject review. Ian A. Crawford, Birkbeck College London, UK ■ Source references should be inserted in the text in square brackets – [1] – and then listed at the Adam Crowl, Icarus Interstellar, Australia end of the paper. Eric W. Davis, Institute for Advanced Studies at Austin, USA ■ Illustration references should be cited in Kathryn Denning, York University, Toronto, Canada numerical order in the text; those not cited in the Martyn Fogg, Probability Research Group, UK text risk omission. Raghavan Gopalaswami, Aerospace Researcher, India ■ Captions must be labelled with their Fig. number and should be as short as possible. Lamartine Guimarães, Institute for Advanced Studies, Brazil Mark Hempsell, Hempsell Astronautics Ltd, UK Illustrations should be: Takuto Ishimatsu, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, USA ■ Colour or mono, but should be as close to print Les Johnson, Marshall Space Flight Center, USA resolution (300 dpi) as possible. Poor-quality illustrations may compromise the acceptance of Terry Kammash, University of Michigan, USA paper for publication. Images embedded in Word Kelvin F. Long, Initiative for Interstellar Studies documents may be acceptable, but JBIS reserves Inoue Makoto, Institute of Astronomy & Astrophysics Academia Sinica, Taiwan the right to request separate higher-resolution Gregory L. Matloff, City University New York, USA image files from the author prior to publication. Koichi Mori, Nagoya University, Japan ■ Responsibility for copyright clearance of images rests entirely with the author. Richard Obousy, Richard Obousy Consulting LLC, USA Robert Parkinson, BIS, Aylesbury, UK Submission of papers George Schmidt, NASA John H Glenn Research Center, Ohio, USA ■ Papers for consideration should be sent by Paul Schuch, The SETI League Inc, USA email to [email protected] as both a Word document and as a Word PDF file (in order to Tabitha Smith, Bifrost, USA check for font anomalies), together with any Andreas Tziolas, Variance Dynamical Corporation, USA separate image files. 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Clarke House, delay of acceptable papers for publication. 27-29 South Lambeth Road, London, SW8 1SZ, United Kingdom tel +44 (0)20 7735 3160 email [email protected] www.bis-space.com Our full Guidelines for Authors can be downloaded DISTRIBUTION from www.bis-space.com JBIS is distributed worldwide by mail and may be received by annual subscription or purchase of single copies. It is available through membership of the British Interplanetary Society at much reduced rates. Subscription details for members, non-members and libraries are available from the above address. JBIS is a publication that promotes the mission of the British Interplanetary Society. Opinions expressed in signed articles are those of the contributors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editor or the Council of the British Interplanetary Society. Security clearance, where necessary, is the responsibility of the author. Published by the British Interplanetary Society. Registered Company No: 402498. Registered Charity No: 250556. Printed by Latimer Trend & Company Ltd, Estover Road, Plymouth, PL6 7PY, England. © 2018 British Interplanetary Society. No part of this magazine may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying or recording by any information storage or retrieval system without prior permission from the Publishers. CONTENTS VOLUME 71 NO.11 NOVEMBER 2018 399 THE MARKET FOR A UK LAUNCHER Vadim Zakirov et al 406 THE REMOVEDEBRIS SPACE HARPOON Alexander Hall 410 RAPID CONSTELLATION DEPLOYMENT from the UK Christopher Loghry & Marissa Stender 416 REDESIGN & SPACE QUALIFICATION OF A 3D-PRINTED SATELLITE STRUCTURE with Polietherimide Jonathan Becedas et al 426 THE EPSILON LAUNCH VEHICLE: Status and Future Ryoma Yamashiro & Imoto Takayuki 431 THE NORMS OF BEHAVIOUR IN SPACE: Our space – Whose rules? Lesley Jane Smith OUR MISSION STATEMENT The British Interplanetary Society promotes the exploration and use of space for the benefit of humanity, connecting people to create, educate and inspire, and advance knowledge in all aspects of astronautics. JBIS Vol 71 No.11 November 2018 397 INTRODUCTION Introduction RiSpace 2018, London Now under the stewardship of the BIS, the 2018 RiSpace Conference was held in the convivial surroundings of the Hamilton Place Conference Centre in London over three days 30 October–1 November. ince its inception, the Re-Inventing Space conference has aimed to provide a forum where novel ideas for space systems can be presented and discussed. Fol- lowing its move to the UK in 2014 under the steward- Sship of the BIS, the conference has increasingly at- tracted contributions from around the world, demonstrating the planet-wide interest in, and dependence upon, the space domain. This tradition was continued at the 2018 RISpace which was held in the Regency surroundings of Hamilton Place in London. The papers in this issue of JBIS are a selection of the highest-ranked submissions that the BIS received following its call for papers in 2018, chosen to provide a balanced reflec- tion of the event itself. They cover a range of novel concepts and show conclusively that advances in technology present satellite system designers with a continuing challenge to Re-Invent Space. Details of future conferences in this series can be found at http://rispace.org/ Stuart Eves, Chair of Programme Committee 398 Vol 71 No.11 November 2018 JBIS JBIS VOLUME 71 2018 PAGES 399-405 THE MARKET FOR A UK LAUNCHER VADIM ZAKIROV, ALAN PERERA-WEBB, RICHARD OSBORNE, CONSTANTINE MILYAEV, GERRY WEBB, Commercial Space Technologies Ltd., 67 Shakespeare Road, Hanwell, London W7 1LU, United Kingdom . Email [email protected] After five decades since the launch of Black Arrow, the UK government resurrects the national launcher programme. Selection of the new national commercial launcher is the next critical milestone. While the future UK launcher specs from UK spaceports are still vague, Commercial Space Technologies (CST) Limited continually forecasts its general prospects. The forecast is based on data obtained from SpaceTrak database by Seradata Limited. To ensure commercial success, the new UK launcher must secure a significant share of the commercial launch market. CST’s forecast defines the launch market of customers willing to launch their spacecraft (limited to 225 kg by mass) commercially from the UK vertical launch site to Sun-Synchronous Orbit (SSO) and Polar Orbits (PO) during 2020-2030. It is assumed that the UK launcher has to compete with other small launchers for the market. It is demonstrated that success rests on the implementation of a smart launch pricing strategy and a timely entry to the market. The pricing strategy winning the UK launcher from 32% to 61% of the small launcher market is presented and the assessments for the UK launcher sales are given. The key outcome is compared to the earlier UK government, Euroconsult and other forecasts and found to be less a optimistic one. The discrepancy among the CST’s and the other forecast numbers is explained. Further enhancements in the forecast’s accuracy are possible once the UK launcher and spaceport specs are determined. Keywords: Spacecraft, Launcher, Market 1 INTRODUCTION Lockheed Martin launcher (a variant of Rocket Lab’s Electron); a small launcher