A New Energy Direction Bold Local Solutions to a Global Problem A Blueprint for Santa Barbara County fossilfreeby33.org Santa Barbara County Renewable Energy Blueprint Community Environmental Council Tam Hunt, Energy Program Director Sigrid Wright, Assistant Director with assistance from Michael Chiacos, Energy Program Senior Associate Completed as part of CEC’s Fossil Free by ‘33 campaign, whose major funders include:* Blackstone Ranch Institute James S. Bower Foundation Clinton Global Initiative Genevieve Estes family Marie Antoinette & Jim Gildea family MarBorg Industries Orfalea Family Foundation Outhwaite Foundation Santa Barbara Foundation Yardi Systems * These and other funders will be listed pending their approval. Santa Barbara County Renewable Energy Blueprint Table of Contents Preface: What’s Wrong with Fossil Fuels? Chapter 1: A New Energy Direction – the Program and Strategy Chapter 2: Reducing Energy Use in Buildings Chapter 3: Reducing Petroleum Demand Chapter 4: Next Generation Vehicles Chapter 5: Wind Power Chapter 6: Solar Power Chapter 7: Ocean Power Chapter 8: What Will it Cost? Preface: What’s Wrong with Fossil Fuels? Introduction Fossil fuels have played a pivotal role in the evolution of modern society – but are also the root cause of many of the most dire problems we face. Without the revolutionary development of technologies that run on fossil fuels, we would very likely still be living in an agricultural economy, with none of the benefits that we enjoy today in terms of transportation, medical advancements, sanitation, entertainment and other improvements to our lifestyle. But a century of burning fossil fuels has taken its toll, and we can no longer rely on the fossilized energy found in oil, coal and gas to meet our needs. As with all technological advancements, if we are to enjoy their benefits we must also take responsibility for their use. The last decade has provided us with ample information that continued reliance on fossil fuels has very serious implica- tions for our health, our economy, our national security, and the health of the natural systems on which we rely. It’s not all doom and gloom, however: our detailed economic analysis finds a significant economic benefit in switching to renewable energy in our county. Our consultants project that each person will save over $3,000 per year by 2030 under our “fossil free” scenario. This is equivalent to an annual $.52 billion savings for our county – a substantial savings by any measure. Although more and more people are becoming aware of the perils of continued reliance on fossil fuels, it is important that we start by clearly defining the problems we face before moving toward the solutions. Why do we need to replace fossil fuels? National Security About 70 percent of our nation’s oil needs are imported — much of this from politically unstable regions in the Middle East. Since the early 970s, our dependence on foreign oil has more than doubled, making the American economy vulnerable to unfriendly foreign governments, terrorism, blackmail, or other disruptions in supply. In addition, protecting these resources requires military commitments that are expensive, in terms of both dollars and human life. Our nation’s two biggest budget items paid for by income taxes are military expen- ditures and interest payments on the national debt, which now exceeds $8.5 trillion. From 2000 to 2006, our country swung from enjoying a budget surplus to deficits of $300 to $400 billion each year, with a direct relationship between deficits and military expenditures. Moreover, more than one-quarter of our trade deficit — which exceeded $800 billion in 2006 — consists of oil imports. The fact is that most wars throughout history have been fought over resources of one type or another. Under the status quo, we can expect more international conflicts to erupt due to tensions over increasingly scarce supplies of oil and gas. As the Council on Foreign Relations recently stated in a report examining the national security implications of future oil price shocks: “[T]he United States has largely continued to treat ‘energy policy’ as something that is separate and distinct — substantively and organizationally — from ‘foreign policy.’ This must change.”2 Preface: What’s Wrong with Fossil Fuels? Climate Change When burned, fossil fuels emit into the atmosphere large amounts of carbon dioxide and methane — the two major “greenhouse gases.” As these gases accumulate, they act as a blanket, keeping heat in our atmosphere and oceans, leading to potentially catastrophic consequences for our planet and everyone living on it. We have already been witnessing the effects of increased greenhouse gases for many decades. In the last century, global temperatures have risen an average of about .3° F, and twice that in 3 polar zones. This may not seem like a large increase, but on a global basis, this increase is incredibly fast. Figure 0-1. Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are far higher 4 now than they have been in the last 650,000 years. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger stated at a conference in San Francisco in 2006: “I say the [global warming] debate is over. We know the science. We see the threat, and we know the time for action is now.” The Governor then unveiled his plan to return California’s greenhouse gas emissions to 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050. As greenhouse gases continue to accumulate, we may see more “freak” weather conditions, including longer and more severe heat waves, increased disease, stronger hurricanes, megastorms, floods, droughts, and a sea level rise from between seven and 23 inches by 200, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.5 And the effects don’t stop at 200. As the IPCC’s recent report confirmed, climate effects will continue for centuries even if we all stopped emitting greenhouse gases today. While scientists don’t always agree on the details, they overwhelmingly agree that we are already witnessing rapid climate change due to human-related greenhouse gas emissions. For example, a survey of peer-reviewed articles on climate change found that, of the 928 articles reviewed, 928 agreed with the view that most of the warming we’ve witnessed in the last 50 years has been caused by human activities. Not one article disagreed with this view.6 Early in 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released its fourth major report, which concluded that the warming we’ve witnessed over the last half century is “very likely” (90 percent certainty or better) to have been caused by humans burning fossil fuels.7 Some effects of increased climate change may include: Heat-related deaths and illness — According to the U.N. World Meteorological Organization, every one of the hottest years on record has occurred since 994 (and 2006 was the sixth hottest year).8 Many scientists expect this trend to continue as long as carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases keep collecting in the atmosphere faster than plants and our oceans can absorb them. In California, average summer temperatures are expected to rise between 2.0 and 5.5 °F by the 2030s9 and 3.0 to 0.5 ºF by the end of the century.0 Heat waves are expected to grow more frequent and more intense — even in cooler 2 Preface: What’s Wrong with Fossil Fuels? coastal climates. Children, the “The world has never faced a problem like elderly, and those who cannot [peak oil]. Without massive mitigation at afford to protect themselves will least a decade before the fact, the problem be at the greatest risk for heat stroke and dehydration. will be pervasive and long lasting.” -- Robert Hirsch, author of the Hirsch Report. Drought — Worldwide, regions suffering from serious drought more than doubled in area from the early 970s to the early 2000s, with much of the change attributed to global warming, according to the National Center for Atmospheric Research. In California, short-term weather patterns notwithstanding, changes in rain patterns and diminishing snowpacks “Conventional” oil production is are already being observed. An extended drought could have a devastat- generally defined as crude oil and ing effect on food resources, supplies of drinking water, and many natural gas liquids, which together industries that require large amounts of water. As precipitation falls more comprise the large majority of cur- frequently as rain than snow, snowpacks will continue to shrink, “and rent oil production. Unconventional nearly eliminate skiing and other snow-related recreational activities,” oil generally includes heavy oil according to a recent report by the California Climate Change Center.2 (much thicker than normal crude), tar sands, oil shale, and deepwater Loss of species — As climates change, so do ecosystems. As tempera- oil. World oil production of all types tures increase and sea levels rise, we are already witnessing the transfor- reached a new high in the final mation of entire ecosystems. Warmer oceans are killing coral reefs at an quarter of 2006, but ethanol, biodie- alarming rate, and glaciers are disappearing, from the Andes to Alaska. sel, and unconventional oil now Spring now arrives an average of 0 days earlier in some regions, and comprise an increasingly significant scientists are observing that certain species of fish, sea turtles, migratory part of this total. birds, amphibians, and butterflies are altering their reproductive and migratory patterns or dying off altogether. Scientists also predict that if current trends The City of Portland, Oregon has continue, polar bears, one of our most iconic Arctic species, will convened a Peak Oil Task Force to become extinct within a few generations. Recognizing this fact, examine local actions for dealing with the Bush administration began a process in late 2006 to list peak oil. They have not finalized their polar bears as threatened species, citing climate change as the recommendations as of early 2007, cause.3 but are the leaders on this issue in the U.S.