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Peak Oil and Growth Die approbierte Originalversion dieser Diplom-/Masterarbeit ist an der Hauptbibliothek der Technischen Universität Wien aufgestellt (http://www.ub.tuwien.ac.at). The approved original version of this diploma or master thesis is available at the main library of the Vienna UniversityMSc of Technolo Programgy (http://www.ub.tuwien.ac.at/englweb/). Renewable Energy in Central & Eastern Europe Peak Oil and Growth. The challenges and opportunities posed by the finite character of the fossil fuels to the world economic order. Master’s Thesis submitted for the degree of “Master of Science” supervised by Ao. Univ. Prof. Dipl.-Ing. Dr. techn. Reinhard Haas Daniel Olev Student ID: 0929414 14.10.2012, Vienna Affidavit I, Daniel Olev , hereby declare 1. that I am the sole author of the present Master Thesis, "Peak Oil and Growth. The challenges and opportunities posed by the finite character of the fossil fuels to the world economic order.", 85 pages, bound, and that I have not used any source or tool other than those referenced or any other illicit aid or tool, and 2. that I have not prior to this date submitted this Master Thesis as an examination paper in any form in Austria or abroad. Vienna, _______________ ___________________________ Date Signature -- ii-- Master Thesis MSc Program Renewable Energy in Central & Eastern Europe Abstract Did you know that, if all oil, consumed in 2011, to put on one train, its tail will encompass the earth equator almost 17 times, making it 85 meters wide steel belt of 120 tone cistern cars. Author. (BP, 2012) In this work I have tried to demonstrate the fundamental difficulties our society faces as we are confronted by the imperative to transition our economy to low carbon future. I have specifically concentrated on the energy component of the economy as a creation source behind the production of goods and services. Oil in particular is on the top of the list in the table of primary energy providers as “enabling” and “connecting” fuel due to its universality in the use of the internal combustion engines designed to drive our machinery around the globe. Given the finite nature of fossil deposits in the core of our planet and more or less accepted in scientific community fact that we have reached the maximum extraction rates of easy to find, produce and refine oil, as well as taking on board the fact that it is almost for certain that continuous usage of carbohydrates as a main source of energy can irrevocably destroy the fine natural balance of gases in our atmosphere I have tried to show the list of the open questions and the scope of the problems, faced by our civilization in efforts to address them. Particular attention was paid to energy balance, also known as energy return on energy invested (EROEI or EROI), which determines net energy available for the society to use at its discretion. Albeit not a new idea – the concept does back 50 years and could be found in the works of economist Kenneth Boulding and ecologist Howard Odum, it was finally formulated in the works of economist Cutler J. Cleveland and professor Charles J Hall (Murphy & Hall, 2010). Although of a great importance in understanding and evaluating current and prospective technologies, very little data and scientific work exists up to now on correct accounting procedures for determining EROIE and its boundaries. This fact is changing now, in part thanks to realization from holistic school of economics that the travel down right side of the Hubbert curve will have to use different system of coordinates in comparison with left, ascending side. -- iii-- Master Thesis MSc Program Renewable Energy in Central & Eastern Europe Acknowledgments I am sincerely grateful to the CEC team of the TU Wien for organising and letting me to take part in the “RECEE” MSc Program, as well as supporting me through the whole process of knowledge acquisition. Special “thank you” goes to Professor Reinhard Haas for his courage, sincerity and guidance in helping me to choose, formulate and develop the subject of this work. I am also in debt to Ms. Andrea Würz and Ms. Petra Aigner for offering me their help, when I most needed it. I have to mention my wife, Jutta Olev, whose measured mix of carrots and sticks provided necessary encouragement for me to complete the whole project. It would not have been possible without you! I am grateful to her for singlehandedly raising our two children during the last 40 or so weekends, it took me to finish this Thesis. Thank you to all who encouraged me to start this education and to see it to the end! -- iv-- Master Thesis MSc Program Renewable Energy in Central & Eastern Europe Table of content Affidavit .................................................................................................... ii Abstract .................................................................................................... iii Acknowledgments ..................................................................................... iv List of tables ............................................................................................ vii List of figures ............................................................................................. vii List of acronyms ........................................................................................ ix 1. Introduction ........................................................................................ 1 1.1 Motivation................................................................................. 1 1.2 Aims and objectives.................................................................. 1 1.3 Literature list.............................................................................. 2 1.4 Structure.................................................................................... 4 2. Background .......................................................................................... 5 3. Method of approach ............................................................................. 8 4. Oil & World Economy ........................................................................... 10 4.1. Oil is not just commodity (lifeblood of the economical growth).......... 10 4.2. Transport........................................................................................... 11 4.3. Electricity.......................................................................................... 13 4.4. Heat.................................................................................................. 14 4.5. Agriculture/Food................................................................................ 15 4.6. Industry.............................................................................................. 16 4.7. Import/Export Market.......................................................................... 16 4.7.1. Trade between producing/consuming countries...................... 16 4.7.2. Security of supply..................................................................... 17 4.7.3. Discovery rate........................................................................... 19 5. Peak Oil Theory ........................................................................................ 21 5.1. Hubbert’s Peak................................................................................... 21 5.2. Timing and Methodology..................................................................... 21 6. Oil & Economic Growth ........................................................................... 24 6.1. Price Elasticity of Oil Demand............................................................. 24 6.2. GDP and oil......................................................................................... 25 6.3. Return to Growth? .............................................................................. 27 6.4. Do we need Growth? .......................................................................... 28 7. Alternatives to Oil ..................................................................................... 33 7.1. Fossil alternatives and their EROEI.................................................... 33 7.1.1. Coal.......................................................................................... 35 7.1.2. Unconventional Oil Alternatives: Natural bitumen, Shale Oil, Heavy Oil, and Deepwater Oil................................................................. 39 7.1.3. Natural Gas and its derivatives as an alternative...................... 45 7.2. Biological alternatives to oil as transport fuel....................................... 50 7.2.1. Bioethanol................................................................................ 51 7.2.2. Biodiesel .................................................................................. 52 7.3. Changing the Energy Carrier................................................................ 54 7.3.1. Electricity.................................................................................. 54 -- v-- Master Thesis MSc Program Renewable Energy in Central & Eastern Europe 7.4. Hydrogen............................................................................................... 57 8. Transition Strategies ................................................................................. 58 8.1. Time window......................................................................................... 58 8.2. Transition period................................................................................... 58 8.3. Range of scenarios..............................................................................
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