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Rogue Basin Cohesive Forest Restoration Strategy: a Collaborative Vision for Resilient Landscapes and Fire Adapted Communities

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Rogue Basin Cohesive Forest Restoration Strategy: a Collaborative Vision for Resilient Landscapes and Fire Adapted Communities Rogue Basin Cohesive Forest Restoration Strategy: A Collaborative Vision for Resilient Landscapes and Fire Adapted Communities June 2017 The Nature Conservancy and Southern Oregon Forest Restoration Collaborative BoardSouthern of Directors Oregon Forest Restoration Executive Collaborative Director Brian Ballou George McKinley Max Bennett Marko Bey Darren Borgias Cindy Donegan Terry Fairbanks Blair Moody Jim Wolf Funding support Oregon Department of Forestry Federal Forest Health Program Oregon Watershed Enhancement Board Forest Collaborative Capacity Grant Program Jackson County Josephine County USDA USFS Rogue River-Siskiyou National Forest Bureau of Land Management The Nature Conservancy Dedication This assessment is dedicated to Ed Reilly, whose vision, open mind, pragmatism, and inclusive approach was a positive force for change in the Rogue Basin: he will be missed. Acknowledgements This assessment builds on a developing vision of collaboratively driven forest management, conceived and nurtured in southwestern Oregon by numerous parties. It relies on contributions of stakeholders and workshop participants as well as the technological capabilities and advice from a wide range of engaged individuals. Contractors Don Helmbrecht -- Wildland Fire Analyst, Forest Service, TEAMS Enterprise Unit, Bozeman, MT, for local fuel calibration and large wildfire simulation Joe Scott -- Pyrologix LLC, Missoula, MT, for risk workshop facilitation and quantitative risk calculations Julie Gilbertson-Day -- Pyrologix LLC, Missoula, MT, for quantitative risk calculations Suggested Citation: Metlen, K. L., D. Borgias, B. Kellogg, M. Schindel, A. Jones, G. McKinley, D. Olson, C. Zanger, M. Bennett, B. Moody, and E. Reilly. 2017. Rogue Basin Cohesive Forest Restoration Strategy: A Collaborative Vision for Resilient Landscapes and Fire Adapted Communities. The Nature Conservancy, Portland, OR. Available online at: https://tnc.box.com/s/k8kel1cww1i3oo4ru55lc1dv7xpyxuob. * Corresponding author: E-mail: [email protected] Cover photo: Ashland Forest Resiliency Stewardship Project © Darren Borgias Rogue Basin Cohesive Forest Restoration Strategy v.2 page 1 of 64 Southern Oregon Forest Restoration Collaborative The Nature Conservancy, Oregon Forest Team Mark Stern -- Director, Forest Conservation Aaron Jones -- Spatial Analyst and Cartographer Bryce Kellogg -- Oregon Forest Analyst Chris Zanger -- Oregon Forest Analyst Darren Borgias -- Southwest Oregon Forest Conservation Director Derek Olson -- Spatial Analyst Kerry Metlen, Ph.D. -- Forest Ecologist Michael Schindel -- Director, Conservation Information Systems Technical Advisors: Bill Kuhn – Area Ecologist, R6 Ecology Program, Rogue River-Siskiyou National Forest District Office Brett Brown -- Fire Ecologist, Siskiyou Mountains Ranger District, Rogue River-Siskiyou Mountains National Forest Cindy Donegan -- Wildlife Biologist, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (retired) Jena Volpe -- Fire Ecologist, Bureau of Land Management Medford District Jim Wolf -- Retired ODF, Consultant Jon Lamb -- Silviculture, Bureau of Land Management Medford District Shannon Downey -- Environmental Coordinator, USFS Enterprise Program Matthew P Thompson, PhD -- Research Forester, Forest Service, Human Dimensions Program, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Missoula, MT Patricia Hochhalter -- Ecologist, USFS, Rogue River-Siskiyou National Forest Terry Fairbanks -- District Silviculturist, Bureau of Land Management Medford District (retired) Rogue Basin Cohesive Forest Restoration Strategy v.2 page 2 of 64 Southern Oregon Forest Restoration Collaborative Contents Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................................... 6 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 8 Objectives ................................................................................................................................................... 10 Scope ........................................................................................................................................................... 10 Inference of the Underlying Data ........................................................................................................... 12 Vegetation and Related Fire-Potential Data ....................................................................................... 13 Wildfire Modeling Limitations ............................................................................................................ 13 Quantitative Wildfire Risk Assessment ....................................................................................................... 13 Fire Behavior Modeling ........................................................................................................................... 13 Current Wildfire Risk ............................................................................................................................... 21 Landscape Management Objectives ........................................................................................................... 24 Local Fire Community Risk ...................................................................................................................... 24 Large Wildfire Community Risk ............................................................................................................... 26 Landscape Resilience .............................................................................................................................. 26 Northern Spotted Owl Habitat ................................................................................................................ 28 Climate Resilient Landscapes .................................................................................................................. 29 Restoration Needs by Treatment Theme ................................................................................................... 30 Estimation of Restoration Need .............................................................................................................. 31 Treatment Placement Filters .................................................................................................................. 34 Restoration Byproduct Timber............................................................................................................ 34 No-treatment Filters ........................................................................................................................... 35 Optimizing Management Scenarios ............................................................................................................ 36 20-year Management Scenarios ............................................................................................................. 37 Wildfire Risk Performance ...................................................................................................................... 39 Landscape Resilience Performance ........................................................................................................ 41 Complex Forest Habitat Performance .................................................................................................... 43 Economic Costs of Implementation ........................................................................................................ 44 Implementation of the Rogue Basin Strategy ............................................................................................. 47 Prioritizing Among Potential Planning Areas .......................................................................................... 47 Purpose and Need Within a Planning Area ............................................................................................. 48 Multiparty Monitoring ............................................................................................................................ 50 Social Engagement .................................................................................................................................. 50 References .................................................................................................................................................. 52 Appendices .................................................................................................................................................. 58 Rogue Basin Cohesive Forest Restoration Strategy v.2 page 3 of 64 Southern Oregon Forest Restoration Collaborative List of Figures Figure 1: Nested, interacting stressors impacting forests of the Rogue Basin and potential factors to reduce that stress by restoring landscape resilience and fire adapted communities. ................................. 8 Figure 2: Increasing efficiency by integrating regional assessment with project planning, unit scale implementation, and monitoring. ................................................................................................................ 9 Figure 3: The Rogue Basin Cohesive Forest Restoration Strategy analysis area is 4.6 million-ac across many ownerships and land allocations. ...................................................................................................... 11 Figure 4: FSim generated annual probability of a 2-ac pixel burning in a fire >35-ac for the 10 million-ac fire behavior modeling
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