KENYA Food Security Update January 2007

The 2006 short‐rains season held promise for most of the drought‐ affected pastoral and marginal agricultural households, after rains Figure 1. Current food security status began on time. Since then, excessive rains have mitigated the anticipated improvements in food security, especially in the eastern pastoral areas where the adverse impacts of flooding include displacement of households, upsurge in water and vector TURKANA borne diseases, limited access to markets, impassable roads and loss of life. The recent outbreak of Rift Valley Fever (RVF) has N W E resulted in the closure of key livestock markets as well as a ban on S WEST POKOT movement and slaughter of animals, accentuating the precarious SAMBURU Emergency status of pastoralists’ welfare that almost exclusively depends on BARINGO Warning LAIKIPIA Alert livestock as the principal source of food and income. The impact is Normal particularly severe for pastoralists in the northeast (see Figure 1).

In other pastoral areas of the northwest and the south, food security conditions have greatly improved, and recovery from previous droughts is likely to start, should the 2007 long‐rains MAKUENI season be normal. In addition, national crop output is expected to TAITA TAVETA 60 0 60 120 180 Kilometers be significantly higher than normal due to two consecutive favorable cropping seasons. Food prices, now close to the five year average, are expected to decline even further, benefiting Source: ALRMP/KFSSG; Graphics: FEWS NET market‐dependent, deficit‐producing households that have been affected by several seasons of drought over the past three years.

Rift Valley Fever and flooding add to pastoral food insecurity and compromise recovery

The Ministry of Health and the World Health Figure 2. Areas affected by floods and Rift Valley Fever Organization (WHO) confirmed an outbreak of RVF after samples taken from Garissa District tested positive for the disease in late December. Garissa Lake Turkana District is the epicenter of the outbreak, but the MANDERA MOYALE disease has spread to adjacent pastoral districts TURKANA N MARSABIT including Wajir, Ijara, Tana River and Kilifi (see W E WAJIR

Figure 2). A multi‐agency surveillance and response S ISIOLO Flood Affected Districts team including the Ministry of Health, the BARINGO # Busia Lake Baringo Veterinary Department, the Arid Lands Resource GARISSA Rift Valley Fever Outbreak # Management Project (ALMRP), the National L.Victoria Nyando # Rachuonyo # Operations Center, WHO, UNICEF, United Nations Migori TANA RIVER # Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs IJARA (OCHA), the World Food Programme (WFP) and the River Tana Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) have MALINDI established that at least 88 people have died from 50 0 50 100 Miles KILIFI # Source of Info. ALRMP/Response Team Graphics: FEWS NET Kenya the disease, about 54 from Garissa District, 10 from KWALE Ijara, 12 from Wajir, 6 from Tana River and 6 from Source: ALRMP/Response Team; Graphics: FEWS NET Kenya Kilifi districts. The ALRMP has reported that the

FEWS NET Kenya WFP/VAM ALRMP Ministry of Agriculture The views expressed in this publication Tel: 3861475/6/9 Tel: 7624073 Tel: 227496 Tel: 2713901 do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency for Nancy Mutunga Allan Kute James Oduor Isaiah Imaita International Development or the [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] United States Government.

KENYA Food Security Update January 2007

outbreak is causing considerable pressure on medical facilities already grappling with an upsurge in malaria, diarrhea and typhoid following the recent flooding, particularly in Isiolo, Wajir, Tana River and Wajir districts. Even more worrisome is a cholera outbreak in Kwale, and Moyale that has claimed 14 lives, as reported by the MoH.

The ALRMP has also reported that the RVF outbreak in the eastern pastoral districts has worsened food insecurity among pastoralists already suffering from severe drought over the last three years and the impacts of severe floods between October and December 2006. Due to the impacts of floods, households have been displaced, livestock lost and access to markets and basic services have been severely impeded. Livestock movements have been further constrained by restrictions put in place to control the RVF outbreak, and a ban on slaughtering livestock has been imposed. As a result, pastoral households face a substantial reduction in income and food access due to the ban on trade and slaughter of livestock. At the same time, pastoral households face high food prices, especially in local markets where floods have disrupted the supply of food commodities.

Cross‐border trade has also been affected by the ban on livestock movement, further disrupting supplies and distorting prices in both and Kenya. However, current political tensions in neighboring Somalia could result in movement of pastoralists and livestock in and out of the country in spite of the ban, spreading RVF and other diseases beyond Kenya.

While the response to the situation has been hampered by poor road access, especially in , the multi‐agency response team has started a range of interventions in all affected districts, covering health and nutrition, water and sanitation, livestock health, food needs and infrastructure. Specific interventions include the provision of food, mosquito nets, drugs and medical kits and protective clothing and an awareness creation campaign. The multi‐agency team concluded that there are about 3,000 households situated in the high risk areas of the eastern pastoral districts. Estimates by the team indicate that initially, about 500,000 sheep and goats and about 600,000 cattle in all five districts need to be vaccinated to stop the spread of the disease. The expanded vaccination campaign will target an estimated 2.5 million animals in several more neighboring districts, contingent upon availability of vaccines and personnel. Substantial doses of the vaccines have been provided by the GoK and the United States Centers for Disease Control.

The outbreak of the RVF comes at a time when pastoral households were beginning to show marked improvements in their food security: livestock prices were on a distinct upward trend and were 20‐30 percent higher than their respective long‐ term means in Marsabit, Kajiado, Tana River, Wajir, Garissa, Laikipia, Samburu, Mandera and Turkana districts. Rates of child malnutrition had declined by 10‐20 percent in Baringo, Garissa, Marsabit, Wajir, Kajiado, Mandera and Turkana districts, as milk and livestock products became more readily available. Food prices in key growing areas were also expected to fall on pastoral markets once the roads opened up. At the moment, most of Ijara District is inaccessible as are critical sections of the Wajir‐Moyale road and the northern part of Tana River District. Thus, despite good water and pasture availability in Kenya’s eastern pastoral districts, food insecurity will persist until the RVF is eliminated.

Emergency Operation interrupted by heavy rains and impassable roads

An estimated 2.4 million persons, including 541,000 school children, are covered by the drought emergency operation (EMOP) from September 2006 through February 2007, based on recommendations from the long rains assessments of August 2006. The delivery of food to the drought‐affected districts continues, and in most areas covered by the EMOP, December distributions have been completed on schedule. Beneficiaries received a full monthly basket of cereals, vegetable oil and corn soya blend. The World Food Programme (WFP) delivered 7,800 MT of food by road and an additional 1,210 MT through airlifts and airdrops to communities that are cut off in the flood‐affected districts. In addition, some 480 MT of non‐food items were airlifted. Approximately 1.5 million beneficiaries were reached in December, but that number is likely to be adjusted upward when the final tally is received.

An additional 260,000 people received food aid in the flood affected areas, including areas not covered by the EMOP, such as Ijara District and Kipini division in Tana River District. Most of North was inaccessible for much of November and December. Operations were also affected by the festive season, which reduced the availability of primary transport to deliver food to districts and partners’ capacity in the field to distribute food to the beneficiaries. In response to the flooding and inaccessibility of roads, WFP established a Special Operation (SO), mobilizing airdrops, airlifts and trucks to deliver commodities to those areas that are otherwise unreachable. The SO currently has four operational helicopters

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KENYA Food Security Update January 2007

based in Wajir, Garissa and Garsen and an Antonov airplane for the airdrops. An additional plane was available for most of December for delivery of mainly non‐food items.

The SO is a joint operation with WFP‐Somalia, which was forced to withdraw their emergency supplies. These supplies are now available to the Kenya operation until the security situation improves in Somalia. The emergency supplies under the SO are available to the entire humanitarian community. The emphasis at the beginning of the crisis was on non‐food items such as medicine, shelter and mosquito nets rather than on food. The GoK, UN agencies and NGOs, provide a combination of food and non‐food items. Since Christmas, the focus has shifted to mitigating the impact of the Rift Valley Fever. WFP helicopters have been able to provide a crucial air service to transport medical staff, equipment and medicine to areas reporting an outbreak of RVF.

Heavy short rains extend into January; flood risks and impacts continue

The 2006 short rains continued through December and Figure 3. Cumulative rains in December 2006, as a extended uncharacteristically into the first week of percent of normal January. Since the beginning of the season in October, the short rains have been consistently heavier than normal in most areas of the country. In several instances, total cumulative rainfall exceeded respective long term averages many times over. December was no exception (see Figure 3). Most notable are the exceptional rainfall deviations reported in the pastoral Turkana and Ijara districts. However, rainfall anomalies are more pronounced in the pastoral areas because the short rains normally tail off in these areas during December.

While the heavy rains have brought substantial benefits, especially to the short rains cropping areas in the central highlands, southeastern and coastal lowlands as well as in the southern and northwestern rangelands, they have had a markedly negative impact on some coastal, lakeshore and northeastern eastern pastoral areas. Unverified estimates from various organizations suggest that about 500,000 people in the pastoral, coastal and lake regions have in Source: USGS/FEWS NET some way been affected by floods, and response interventions are ongoing. Most of the flood‐affected population is already covered by the ongoing drought emergency intervention. However, the most recent flooding in the lake region occurred in areas not covered by the emergency operation. In these areas, an estimated 4,000 people in Nyando, Migori, Rachuonyo, Kisumu, Busia and Siaya were displaced. The floods have now subsided, but the damage to infrastructure is extensive. The Office of the President has provided food to the affected population in the lake region, while rehabilitation of infrastructure has started in some areas impacted by floods.

The Kenya Meteorological Department has indicated that rains should begin to relent from mid‐January, after heavier‐than‐ normal rainfall during the first week of January. The cessation of rains is critical to limit the extent of pre‐ and post‐harvest losses of the long rains maize and the short rains bean crops. The end of short rains would also help to improve access to many critical roads in the pastoral areas that are currently unreachable or washed out.

Crop prospects are favorable in spite of localized losses, while prices stabilize

Crop prospects remain favorable. The long rains season in the key producing areas was good, and prospects for the short‐ rains season, expected to end in early March, are favorable. While the long‐rains season is the most important national season, contributing over 80 percent to total annual output, the short‐rains season is the most reliable season in the drought prone southeastern and parts of the coastal lowlands. Traditionally, the short‐rains season accounts for close to 70 percent of annual output in the drought‐affected southeastern marginal agricultural areas. A favorable short rains season

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KENYA Food Security Update January 2007

would have a significant positive impact on the food security of these households that have had to grapple with debilitating drought over several seasons during the past three years.

The Ministry of Agriculture estimates that total national output for the July 2006‐June 2007 marketing year is expected to be close to just over 3 million MT, a 15 percent increase over both last year and the long‐term average. However, much of the short rains crop is still at a critical stage of development, and drastic changes in the weather could still affect projections. Additional supplies of maize, beans and rice are routinely imported from Tanzania and Uganda to cover the country’s structural deficit.

Maize prices remained fairly stable during Figure 4. Comparative maize prices in reference markets December across most markets in the country, with few exceptions. While a significant decline in 2,500 maize prices was anticipated in December, heavy December 2004 December 2005 rains during most of the month in key growing 2,000 December 2006 areas interrupted the harvest. In addition, the December Avg ('98-'03) National Cereals and Produce Board (NCPB), has set its purchase price at Ksh 1,300 per 90 kg, 1,500 ostensibly to provide support to key producers. The NCPB is a key player in the market, and its 1,000 activities invariably affect maize prices in key

producing areas and by extension most other bag 90-kg per (Ksh.) Price 500 areas of the country that are supplied by these ‘grain‐basket’ areas. However, the NCPB has purchased little maize so far and is holding an 0 estimated 225,000 MT of maize for the GoK’s Garissa Kisumu Mombasa Strategic Grain Reserve. Figure 4 compares maize Source: Market Information Branch/NCPB prices in December in key reference markets and indicates that prices in most markets were close to their 6‐year averages during December 2006, with the exception of Garissa market that lies adjacent to the severely flooded areas. Prices in other deficit markets in pastoral and marginal agricultural areas are also above average. Prices are likely to assume a downward trend from this point forward, since harvesting of the long rains crop should be completed in January, and the short rains harvest is expected to begin in February.

Conclusion

While food security has improved significantly in most of the country, households in the eastern pastoral and parts of the coastal and lakeshore districts have been affected by flooding and in some districts, an outbreak of Rift Valley Fever (RVF). Flooding and RVF have interrupted the start of recovery among pastoralists, especially in the northeast, accentuating their already poor food security. Although a significant vaccination campaign for livestock and other prevention activities are ongoing in all affected districts, trade prospects are limited after a ban was imposed on livestock movement and slaughter. However, roads are beginning to open up as rains subside, and access to areas that were cut off has improved. The improved access should facilitate the control of the disease and improve supplies of food commodities to markets, moderating the upward pressure on food prices. Unfortunately, food insecurity has deepened for pastoralists in the northeast and is expected to persist until the RVF is verifiably eradicated.

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