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On ENSO-Modified Hurricane Formation in the North Atlantic On ENSO-Modified Hurricane Formation in the North Atlantic THESIS Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Master of Science in the Graduate School of the Ohio State University By Joshua Welty Graduate Program in Atmospheric Science The Ohio State University 2015 Master’s Examination Committee: Dr. Jay S. Hobgood, Advisor Dr. Jeffrey Rogers Dr. Álvaro Montenegro! Copyright by Joshua Stephen Welty 2015 Abstract A variety of statistical studies have been performed in past years identifying the variables that exhibit the greatest efficacy in determining whether or not a cloud cluster over the north Atlantic basin will form into a hurricane. An oft-used statistical model employed to assess the relative power of variables in distinguishing between cloud cluster lysis or further development into a hurricane (two simple outcomes) is linear discriminant analysis (LDA) which computes coefficients for each predictor taken from a selected predictor set. LDA maintains a wide range of applications across a breadth of disciplines. The LDA-derived coefficients are based on the variance of each predictor correlated with the two different classifications: 1) development (into a hurricane) and 2) nondevelopment. A higher magnitude coefficient for a discrete variable indicates enhanced power in discriminating between development or nondevelopment. The specific question addressed in this study lies at the interface between the behavior of cloud clusters and ENSO-modified (El Niño - Southern Oscillation, or colloquially, El Niño) activity over the north Atlantic. The study is designed to determine if the power of certain variables to discriminate between subsequent cloud cluster outcomes over the north Atlantic basin changes in connection to a transition in phase of !ii ENSO. In other words, the study addresses whether or not the most effective discriminators during El Niño years are the same as the most effective discriminators during La Niña or neutral years. In this study, an additional model employed to determine the maximum achievable potential intensity (MPI) of certain storms is utilized in a variety of case studies to determine if it is a satisfactory indicator of subsequent intensification or lack thereof. Low-level vorticity in general is the highest-ranked discriminant across all seasons. SST and Coriolis also significantly affect cloud cluster outcomes. MPI, in nascent formation phases, is not a reliable predictor. Vorticity stretching is of highly variable significance which is dependent upon ENSO phase and the time until genesis. Future studies examining ENSO effects on formation processes could benefit greatly by the use of dynamic models - such as shallow water primitive equation (SWPE) models - in the simulation of upper-level conditions. !iii Dedication To Mom, who has loved and encouraged me. To Dad, who has inspired and led me. To Dr. Hobgood, who has taught and guided me. !iv Acknowledgments I would like to extend my sincerest thanks to the Ohio State University Department of Geography for blessing me with a Graduate Fellowship and Graduate Teaching Associateship over the course of two years. I am humbled by the opportunity to represent the university and the department in all future endeavors. I would also like to thank my family (Dad, Mom, Rach) and my girlfriend, Aggie, for their incessant love and patience. I love you all. Last but certainly not least, I am very grateful for the time, efforts, and guidance provided by Dr. Hobgood, my advisor, and Dr. Rogers and Dr. Montenegro, my committee members. Thank you, Dr. Hobgood, for agreeing to be my mentor/advisor. I have learned a lot from you. Thank you, Dr. Rogers and Dr. Montenegro, for being willing to further contribute to my development as a researcher. !v Vita June 2008........................................................New Albany High School June 2012........................................................(Honors) B.S. Geography/Atmospheric Science (Spanish minor), The Ohio State University August 2013 - present.....................................Graduate Fellow, Graduate Teaching Associate, Atmospheric Science, The Ohio State University Fields of Study Major Field: Atmospheric Science !vi Table of Contents Abstract……………………………………………………………………………..…….ii Dedication………………………………………………………………………………...iv Acknowledgments…………………………………………………………………………v Vita……………………………………………………………………………………….vi Table of Contents………………………………………………………………………..vii List of Tables…………………………………………………………………………….xii List of Figures…………………………………………………………………………..xiv Chapter 1: Introduction……………………………………………………………………1 1.1 Relevance.........................................................................................................1 1.2 Forecasting.......................................................................................................2 1.3 Tropical cyclogenesis (TCG)..........................................................................3 1.4 Stochasticity....................................................................................................4 1.5 Background.....................................................................................................5 1.6 Questions........................................................................................................8 Chapter 2: Literature Review............................................................................................10 !vii 2.1 Formation Theories........................................................................................10 2.1.1 Top-down merger…………………………………………………10 2.1.2 Top-down showerhead....................................................................12 2.1.3 Bottom-up.......................................................................................15 2.2 Construction………………………………………………………………..17 2.2.1 Convection.....................................................................................17 2.2.2 Shear...............................................................................................19 2.3 Intensification Theories……………………………………………………..21 2.4 Maximum Potential Intensity........................................................................23 2.4.1 DeMaria and Kaplan......................................................................24 2.4.2 Holland……………………………………………………………25 2.4.3 Emanuel…………………………………………………………..26 2.5 Climatology....................................................................................................28 2.5.1 Climatological Oscillations.............................................................29 2.5.2 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).............................................29 2.5.3 Future projections............................................................................33 2.5.4 Research questions...........................................................................34 Chapter 3: Methods………………………………………………………………………36 3.1 Introduction to Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA)……………………….36 3.1.1 Literature-based variable selection rationale……………………..37 !viii 3.1.2 Linear Discriminant Analysis..........................................................42 3.1.3 Ocean Niño Index…………………………………………………44 3.1.4 NHC Best Tracks.............................................................................45 3.2 Cloud clusters..................................................................................................46 3.2.1 Cluster thresholds.............................................................................46 3.2.2 Satellite imagery...............................................................................47 3.3 Variable selection........................................................................................................52 3.3.1 Low-level vorticity...........................................................................54 3.3.2 Upper-level vorticity........................................................................56 3.3.3 Coriolis (parameter, scaled).............................................................56 3.3.4 Vertical wind shear...........................................................................57 3.3.5 Vorticity stretching...........................................................................59 3.3.5 SST...................................................................................................59 3.4 Reanalysis selection........................................................................................60 3.4.1 NCEP/DOE AMIP-II Reanalysis (NCEPR2)……………………..60 3.4.2 NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) ……………..61 3.4.3 ECMWF ERA-Interim Reanalysis (ERA-I)………………………62 3.5 Computation....................................................................................................62 3.5.1 NCL Computation............................................................................62 3.5.2 LDA in R…………………………………………………………..69 3.5.3 MPI (as delineated by BE02a).........................................................71 !ix Chapter 4: Results………………………………………………………………………..79 4.1 Linear Discriminant Coefficients...................................................................79 4.2 5x5° Box…………………………………………………………………….80 4.2.1 Annual analyses...............................................................................80 4.2.2 Seasonal analyses.............................................................................93 4.3 2° Radius…………………………………………………………………..106 4.4 Incubation period..........................................................................................111
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