eVENT Hurricane Tracking Advisory

Tropical Storm Franklin Information from NHC Advisory 11A, 7:00 AM CDT Wed August 9, 2017 On the forecast track, the center of Franklin is expected to approach the coast of eastern Mexico today, then cross the coast in the Mexican state of Veracruz tonight or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and Franklin is forecast to become a hurricane later today and reach the coast of Mexico as a hurricane tonight or early Thursday.

Intensity Measures Position & Heading U.S. Landfall (NHC) Max Sustained Wind 70 mph Position Relative to 115 miles NNE of Coatzacoalcos Speed: (Tropical Storm) Land: Mexico Est. Time & Region: N/A Min Central Pressure: 987 mb Coordinates: 20.2 N, 93.4 W

Trop. Storm Force Est. Max Sustained 140 miles Bearing/Speed: W or 270 degrees at 13 mph N/A Winds Extent: Wind Speed:

Forecast Summary ■ The NHC forecast map (below left) and the wind-field map (below right), which is based on the NHC’s forecast track, both show Franklin making landfall on the Mexican state of Veracruz tonight or early Thursday. To illustrate the uncertainty in Franklin’s forecast track, forecast tracks for all current models are shown on the wind-field map (below right) in pale gray. ■ Franklin is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico through Monday. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated amounts of 15 inches are possible across the Mexican states of Tabasco, northern Veracruz, northern Puebla, Tlaxacala, Hidalgo, Queretar and eastern San Louis Potosi in eastern Mexico. These rains will be capable of producing life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. ■ Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the Hurricane Warning area by tonight. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength later today, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Forecast Track for Tropical Storm Franklin Forecast Wind-field for Tropical Storm Franklin

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Coastal Watches and Warnings A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the coast of Mexico from Puerto de Veracruz to Cabo Rojo A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the coast of Mexico north of Cabo Rojo to Rio Panuco A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coast of Mexico east of Puerto de Veracruz to Ciudad del Carmen, the coast of Mexico north of Tuxpan to Barra del Tordo

Summary of Activity to Date Benchmarking the 2017 Atlantic Season to Date 2017 Activity versus Average Activity for the years 1950 – 2011 Tropical Total Cat 3-5 12

Storms Hurricanes Hurricanes Tropical Storm avg '50-'11 Tropical Storm 2017 2017 year to date (1/1/16 – 08/09/17) 6 0 0 Hurricane avg '50-'11

2016 year to date (1/1/16 – 08/09/17) 5 1 0 8

1995-2011 season average 14.7 7.9 3.8 TS Franklin 1950-2011 season average 10.7 6.2 2.7 TS Emily 4 TS Don 2017 CSU season forecasts 13 6 2 TS Cindy (Colorado State University at June 1,‘17) TS Bret 2017 NOAA season forecasts 11-17 5-9 2-4 (May25, 2017) 0 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

Tropical Storm Activity to Date 2017 Tropical Storm Activity versus Average Activity Franklin is the sixth named storm of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Last The graph above shows 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season activity and average year saw five named storms by August 9, one of which was hurricane Alex – the occurrence rates since 1950 by date, category and order. It shows, for example, that first Atlantic hurricane in January since Hurricane Alice of 1955. Franklin became the season’s sixth named storm on August 7. It also shows the average season has 10.7 tropical storms, 6.2 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes (categories 3-5).

New Tropical Potential and Average Remaining Risk Five Day Tropical Weather Outlook Average Risk Remaining in the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Shower activity has increased a little this morning in association with a trough of low pressure Atlantic hurricane activity and major hurricane activity (categories 3-5) both peak in located about 400 miles east of Leeward Islands. Significant development of this system is not September, as the graph below illustrates. The average remaining percentage of days expected during the next couple days due to unfavorable environmental conditions. However, with Atlantic hurricane activity at August 9 is 92% for all hurricanes and 95% for major conditions are forecast to become somewhat conducive for development of this system late this hurricanes. week and this weekend while it moves west-northewestward to northwestward over the western Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. .

Percentage of Days with Active Hurricanes since 1900

60% All Hurricanes (1-5) Major Hurricanes (3-5) 50%

Contact us 40% Roy Cloutier Matt Nicolai roy.c loutier@ willistowerswatson.com matthew.nicolai30%@willistowerswatson.com +1 (952) 841-6652 +1 (952) 841-6657 20%

10% 2 0% Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec