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Tropical Storm Franklin eVENT Hurricane Tracking Advisory Tropical Storm Franklin Information from NHC Advisory 11A, 7:00 AM CDT Wed August 9, 2017 On the forecast track, the center of Franklin is expected to approach the coast of eastern Mexico today, then cross the coast in the Mexican state of Veracruz tonight or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and Franklin is forecast to become a hurricane later today and reach the coast of Mexico as a hurricane tonight or early Thursday. Intensity Measures Position & Heading U.S. Landfall (NHC) Max Sustained Wind 70 mph Position Relative to 115 miles NNE of Coatzacoalcos Speed: (Tropical Storm) Land: Mexico Est. Time & Region: N/A Min Central Pressure: 987 mb Coordinates: 20.2 N, 93.4 W Trop. Storm Force Est. Max Sustained 140 miles Bearing/Speed: W or 270 degrees at 13 mph N/A Winds Extent: Wind Speed: Forecast Summary ■ The NHC forecast map (below left) and the wind-field map (below right), which is based on the NHC’s forecast track, both show Franklin making landfall on the Mexican state of Veracruz tonight or early Thursday. To illustrate the uncertainty in Franklin’s forecast track, forecast tracks for all current models are shown on the wind-field map (below right) in pale gray. ■ Franklin is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico through Monday. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated amounts of 15 inches are possible across the Mexican states of Tabasco, northern Veracruz, northern Puebla, Tlaxacala, Hidalgo, Queretar and eastern San Louis Potosi in eastern Mexico. These rains will be capable of producing life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. ■ Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the Hurricane Warning area by tonight. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength later today, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Forecast Track for Tropical Storm Franklin Forecast Wind-field for Tropical Storm Franklin © Copyright 2016 Willis Limited / Willis Re Inc. All rights reserved: No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, whether electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the permission of Willis Limited/Willis Re Inc. Some information contained in this report may be compiled from third party sources; however, we do not guarantee and are not responsible for the accuracy of Hazard and damage potential maps such. This report is for general information only, is not intended to be relied upon, and any action based on or in connection with anything contained herein should be taken only after obtaining specific advice. The views expressed in this produced by Willis are based on numerical report are not necessarily those of Willis Limited/Willis Re Inc., or any of its/their parent or sister companies, subsidiaries or affiliates, Willis Towers Watson PLC or any member companies thereof (hereinafter “Willis Towers Watson”). modeling results from Kinetic Analysis Willis Towers Watson accepts no responsibility for the content or quality of any third party websites to which we refer. Corporation. The TAOS real-time hazard and impact forecast information is provided "as is" and without warranties as to performance or any other warranties whether expressed or implied. The user is strongly cautioned to recognize that natural hazards modeling and analysis are subject to many uncertainties. These uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the uncertainties inherent in weather and climate, incomplete or inaccurate weather data, changes to the natural and built environment, limited historical records, and limitations in the state of the art of modeling, as well as limits to the scientific understanding of storm weather phenomena. Anyone making use of the hazard and impact information provided by KAC, or the information contained within, assumes all liability deriving from such use, and agrees to "hold harmless" any and all agencies or individuals associated with its creation. The user agrees to provide any subsequent users of this data with this disclaimer. The publication of the material contained herein is not intended as a representation or warranty that this information is suitable for any general or particular use. Coastal Watches and Warnings A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the coast of Mexico from Puerto de Veracruz to Cabo Rojo A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the coast of Mexico north of Cabo Rojo to Rio Panuco A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coast of Mexico east of Puerto de Veracruz to Ciudad del Carmen, the coast of Mexico north of Tuxpan to Barra del Tordo Summary of Atlantic Hurricane Activity to Date Benchmarking the 2017 Atlantic Season to Date 2017 Activity versus Average Activity for the years 1950 – 2011 Tropical Total Cat 3-5 12 Storms Hurricanes Hurricanes Tropical Storm avg '50-'11 Tropical Storm 2017 2017 year to date (1/1/16 – 08/09/17) 6 0 0 Hurricane avg '50-'11 2016 year to date (1/1/16 – 08/09/17) 5 1 0 8 1995-2011 season average 14.7 7.9 3.8 TS Franklin 1950-2011 season average 10.7 6.2 2.7 TS Emily 4 TS Don 2017 CSU season forecasts 13 6 2 TS Cindy (Colorado State University at June 1,‘17) TS Bret 2017 NOAA season forecasts 11-17 5-9 2-4 (May25, 2017) 0 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Tropical Storm Activity to Date 2017 Tropical Storm Activity versus Average Activity Franklin is the sixth named storm of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Last The graph above shows 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season activity and average year saw five named storms by August 9, one of which was hurricane Alex – the occurrence rates since 1950 by date, category and order. It shows, for example, that Franklin became the season’s sixth named storm on August 7. It also shows the first Atlantic hurricane in January since Hurricane Alice of 1955. average season has 10.7 tropical storms, 6.2 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes (categories 3-5). New Tropical Cyclone Potential and Average Remaining Risk Five Day Tropical Weather Outlook Average Risk Remaining in the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Shower activity has increased a little this morning in association with a trough of low pressure Atlantic hurricane activity and major hurricane activity (categories 3-5) both peak in located about 400 miles east of Leeward Islands. Significant development of this system is not September, as the graph below illustrates. The average remaining percentage of days expected during the next couple days due to unfavorable environmental conditions. However, with Atlantic hurricane activity at August 9 is 92% for all hurricanes and 95% for major conditions are forecast to become somewhat conducive for development of this system late this hurricanes. week and this weekend while it moves west-northewestward to northwestward over the western Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Percentage of Days with Active Hurricanes since 1900 60% All Hurricanes (1-5) Major Hurricanes (3-5) 50% Contact us 40% Roy Cloutier Matt Nicolai roy.c loutier@ willistowerswatson.com matthew.nicolai30%@willistowerswatson.com +1 (952) 841-6652 +1 (952) 841-6657 20% 10% 2 0% Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec.
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