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Investing in Indian Real Estate

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Investing in Indian Real Estate Investing in Indian Real Estate Amplus Research Darshil Shah ([email protected]) Indian Real Estate A. Key locations in India .................................................... 3 a. Returns from real estate in the past few years ................ 4 b. Vibrant locations to provide better returns in future ........ 4 B. Real Estate .................................................................. 10 Gujarat Overview ............................................................ 11 Ahmedabad-Gandhinagar ................................................. 26 Surat ............................................................................. 30 Vadodara ....................................................................... 34 Mumbai .......................................................................... 37 NCR .............................................................................. 39 Other Cities Snapshot ...................................................... 41 a. Hyderabad .................................................................. 41 b. Bangalore ................................................................... 42 c. Pune .......................................................................... 43 2 Key Locations in India A. Key locations in India a. Returns from real estate in the past few years b. Vibrant locations to provide better returns in future 3 Key Locations in India A. Key locations in India a. Returns from real estate in the past few years Returns from real estate are not identical at all locations. The investment made at the right location at right time would deliver extraordinary returns. For eg. In the past four years years residential locations in cities such as Ahmedabad and Mumbai performed better than most cities including cities like Hyderabad. Figure 1: Location is key for superior returns Hyderabad Ahmedabad Chennai Mumbai Bengaluru 300 Index to 100 250 200 150 100 50 0 HY1 HY2 HY1 HY2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: NHB b. Vibrant locations to provide better returns in future A few locations in India have potential to outperform other locations, considering their: i. High economic base; ii. High growth rate; iii. High urbanization base; iv. High urbanization rate; and v. Other factors like political stability, infrastructure etc Delhi, Maharastra, are Gujarat offer huge real estate opportunity: 1. Among states having economy of more than $100 billion, Maharastra and Gujarat have higher per capital income than other states. Delhi has the highest per capita income compared with other states, though its economy is around $56 billion only. 4 Key Locations in India Figure 2: Gujarat is among the few $100 billion economies in the country 250 224.12 200 150 128.09 123.56 119.13 104.87 96.57 86.83 100 56.34 50 0 Delhi West Uttar Bengal Gujarat Andhra Pradesh Pradesh Karnataka TamilNadu Maharashtra Source: Planning Commission of India Figure 3: Among bigger states, Delhi, Maharastra and Gujarat have highest per capita income (INR) Per Capita NSDP FY 2009-10 * at current prices 140,000 116,886 120,000 100,000 74,027 80,000 63,961 63,547 52,097 51,025 60,000 46,492 40,000 20,000 0 Delhi Gujarat Andhra AllIndia Pradesh Karnataka TamilNadu Maharashtra Source: Planning Commission of India 2. Gujarat, Maharastra, Delhi, witnessed the highest average real economic growth rate in the past ten years. Figure 4: Among bigger states, Gujarat was the fastest growing state for last 10 years Average real growth rate from 02-03 to 10-11 12 10.42 9.98 9.82 10 8.95 8.11 7.95 7.68 8 6 4 2 0 Delhi Gujarat Andhra All-India Pradesh Karnataka TamilNadu Maharashtra Source: Planning Commission of India 5 Key Locations in India Similarly, Gujarat and Maharastra have witnessed the highest average industrial growth rate among bigger states. Figure 5: Among bigger states, Gujarat led in industrial growth Growth rate of NSDP in Industry 14 12.65 12 9.24 10 8.54 8.32 7.25 8 6.76 6.61 6 4 2 0 Delhi Gujarat Andhra AllIndia Pradesh Karnataka TamilNadu Maharashtra Source: Planning Commission of India 3. Delhi, Gujarat and Maharastra are among one of most urbanised states in the country. Figure 6: Among larger states, Gujarat has higher Urban population Urban population 120 97.5 as % of total state population 100 80 60 48.45 45.23 42.58 38.57 33.49 40 31.16 20 0 India Delhi Gujarat Andhra Pradesh Karnataka TamilNadu Maharashtra Source: Planning commission of India 6 Key Locations in India And Delhi, Gujarat, Maharastra have witnessed high urbanisation growth rates among the large states. Figure 7: Among larger states, Gujarat witnessed higher urbanisation rate % decadel growth rate of urban population 40 36.26 35.83 35 31.8 31.27 30 27.16 26.56 23.67 25 20 15 10 5 0 India Delhi Gujarat Andhra Pradesh Karnataka TamilNadu Maharashtra Source: Planning Commission of India As per Mckinsey report, the trend of urbanisation is expected to continue and India will have at least 13 cities with population more than four million. Figure 8: Fastest growing states will continue to exibit the highest urbanisation rates Source: Mckinsey 7 Key Locations in India Real Estate of prime cities of Maharastra, Gujarat and Delhi poised for exceptional returns: States like Maharastra, Gujarat, Delhi have not only recorded above- average growth rate on a higher base but also have better per capita income, a higher population base and higher urbanization rates than many states. The economic growth rate of these three states is expected to remain robust. These three states are expected to be among the most developed states in the country by 2020 and will together contribute significantly to country’s GDP. Further, due to healthy government policies, states such as Gujarat may outperform expected growth. Among the large cities, apart from IT cities such as Bangalore and Hyderabad, cities of Gujarat like Surat, Ahmedabad, and Vadodara have witnessed one of the highest population growth rates in the last decade. Figure 9: Surat and Ahmedabad among the top growing cities of the country (% growth) Population Growth of Indian Cities Growth 01-11 Growth 91-11 100 80 60 40 20 0 Surat Pune Delhi Kolkata Mumbai Chennai Bangalore Hyderabad Ahmedabad Source: Census of India,2011 Figure 10: Ahmedabad’s population is closer to Hyderabad and Surat’s is closer to Pune and may overtake them in the next decade. (Lacs) Population of Indian Cities 2011 200 184 163 160 141 120 87 85 77 80 64 50 46 40 0 d rat ā ū b ā Pune S Delhi Mumbai Kolkata Chennai [Madras] [Calcutta] Bangalore Hyderabad Ahmad Source: Census of India,2011 8 Key Locations in India Figure 11: The expected 4 million population cities of India can be thus categorised as under: Most Favored Cities for Growth but Untapped cities for Other Cities Investment investments Mumbai Ahmedabad Kolkata Delhi/NCR Surat Kanpur Bangalore Vadodara Nagpur Hyderabad Jaipur Pune Chennai Mumbai/NCR/ Bangalore are robust 3 out of 4 cities located in the Nagpur, Kanpur growing below real estate markets in the country fastest growing state Gujarat and national average; whereas Kolkata getting maximum benefit from their are expected to get maximum is stagnant. large economy, the country’s high benefit of the state’s high growth. growth, urbanization, higher population base. During the past 5-6 years, the six most favoured cities shared almost entire $15 billion investment made by real estate private equity players in India. A next few “Growth but Untapped cities” could also selectively provide superior returns. Source: Company research Figure 12: Amplus Model Portfolio Typical Real Estate Fund Portfolio Amplus Model Portfolio Mumbai Mumbai National Capital Region National Capital Region Bangalore Bangalore Hyderabad Ahmedabad Chennai Surat Pune Vadodara/Rajkot Source: Company Research Key Consideration for replacing Hyderabad / Chennai / Pune with Ahmedabad / Surat / Vadodara / Rajkot (“Vibrant Cities”): Vibrant Cities have: a. High population base Ahmedabad b. Higher Urbanization rate Rajkot Vadodara c. Key cities of Gujarat, the state which is: Surat i. One of the most developed in the state Pune ii. Have high urbanization rate Hyderabad iii. Have higher GDP base Chennai iv. Have highest growth rates v. Have high per capita income d. The four cities are located on a stretch of 300 km and hence have lesser geographical spread than the other three cities e. Untapped market by real estate private equity players f. High industrial base g. Highest investor interest in setting up new industries h. Major infrastructure projects under execution 9 Real Estate B. Real Estate Gujarat Overview Ahmedabad-Gandhinagar Surat Vadodara Mumbai NCR Other Cities Snapshot a. Hyderabad b. Bangalore c. Pune 10 Real Estate B. Real Estate Gujarat Overview Gujarat is located in western India and has one-third of the country’s coastline. The state has a population more than 60 million (2011 census), comprising around 5% of country’s population. According to Population Census 2011, the state witnessed a decadal (2001-11) growth rate of 19.2% vs. an all-India average of 17.64%. Average decadal population growth rate of Gujarat has been 20% over the past three decades. Gujarat is one of most urbanized states in the country having more than 42.58% people residing in urban areas as per 2011 census. The state has literacy level of 79.31% vis-à-vis an all-India average of 74.04%. Figure 13: Gujarat has high urban population and high urbanisation Urban population Growth on urban population (RHS) % of total population (RHS) 30 45 population
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