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ESTIMATES of the POPULATION of STATES, by AGE 1960 to 1966 with Provisional Estimates for July 1, 1967

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ESTIMATES of the POPULATION of STATES, by AGE 1960 to 1966 with Provisional Estimates for July 1, 1967 Series P - 25, No. 384 February:13, 1968 ESTIMATES OF THE POPULATION OF STATES, BY AGE 1960 TO 1966 With Provisional Estimates For July 1, 1967 J::STIMATEDPOPULATION 21 YEARS OLD AND OVER, BY STATE, JULY 1, 1966, AND PERCENT CHANGE SINCE 1960 (Population shown in thousands)' N. OAK. 358 S. OAK. 381 ..I11III 15.0 to 20.9 _ 9.5 to 14.9 U.S. 115.5 million; Em 4.5 to 9.4 percent increase 6.8 m LO to 4.0 D Less than 1.0 or loss DEPARTMENT OF CO ..... ERCE BUREA.U CONTENTS Page Methodology . '. 1 Estimates for 1966 .........................' ........................... 1 Estimates for 1961 to 1965 ................... -........................... 2 Provisional estimates for 1967 .................... ;. ....................... 2 Population base ........................................................ 3 Sources of data . 3 Accuracy of estimates .............................................. "..... 3 Comparison of published estimates of the population 65 years old and over with Medicare sta tistics . 4 Related reports ........................................................ 5 Rounding of estimates .................................................... 5 DETAILED TABLES Table Page l.--Estimates of the total resident populatlOn, by age, for States: July 1, 1966. 6 2.--Total residept populationi by age, for States: April 1, 1960 . 7 3.--Percent change in total resident population, by age, for States: April 1, 1960, to July 1, 1966 . 8 4.--Percent distribution of the estimated total resident population, by age, for States, July 1, 1966, with comparative figures for April 1, 1960 ............. " . 9 5.--Estimates of the total resident population, by age, for States: July 1,1961 to 1965. .. La 6.--Provisional estimates of the total resident population, by age, for States: July 1, 1967. .. 15 For sale by the Superintendent oj Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 20402,1,5 cents. Annual subscription (Series P-20, P-23, P-25, P-27, P-28 summaries, P-60, and P-65, combined), $5~OO; joreign mailing, $6.50. II ESTIMATES OF THE POPULATION Of STATES, BY AGE, 19'60 TO 1966 With Provisional Estimates for July 1, 1961 (Estimates shown here supersede corresponding estimates published in report No, 354 of this series) This report presents estimates of the total To estimate net civilian migration for a State, resident population by age groups for 1960 to 1967. rates of migration were derived for each age group The age groups shown' for 1960 to 1966 are: under except age 65 years and over from the State's 5 years, 5 to 17 years, 18 to 44 years, 45 to 64 estimated migration rate for school-age children years and 65 years and over, plus the cumulative for the period April 1960to July 1966. Specifically, age groups 14 years and over, 18 years and over, and the net civilian migration rate, 1960 to 1966, for 21 year s and over. For 1967, the age groups shown each age group in a given State was derived by are: under 18 years, 18 to 64 years, and 65 years (1) obtaining the ratio of the national gross inter­ and over, plus the cumulative age groups 18 years state migration rate for that age group to the and over and 21 years and over. national rate for the age group 7.50 to 15.49, and (2) applying this ratio to the State's net migration ~ETHODOLOGY rate for the age group 7.50 to 15.49. Estimates for 1966.-The estimates for all States Net migration rates for ages 7.50 to 15.49 by were obtained by carrying forward the 1960 Census States had previously been estimated in the course data (after subtracting the estimated size of the of preparing the estimates of the total population Armed Forces) for each of the age groups for each of States for 1966 shown in Current PopulationRe­ State, and allowing for births, deaths, net civilian ports, Series P-25, No. 380. (The method used in international and interstate migration, the net estimating migration rates for children of school movement of civilians into the Armed Forces age is described in that report. It employs data between April 1, 1960, and the estimate date,_ on elementary school enrollment and data on age and the number of Armed Forces stationed in each from the 1960 Census.) State on the estimate date. As a final step, the estimates were so adjusted that the sum of the The national interstate migration rates are estimates of the five broad age groups for each based on estimates of interstate migration by age State equaled the estimate of the total resident obtained annually from the Current Population Sur­ population of that State . published in Current vey, the Bureau's continuing national sample survey Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 380. In addi­ of population.2 The ratios of the national migration tion, the sum of the State estimates for each age group was adjusted to equal the latest national 1 population estimates in that age group. 2U.S, Bureau of the Census, Current Popu1atio~ I Reports, Series P-20, No. 156, IIMobility of the .. Population of the United States: March 1965 to I lNational population estimates, by age, for 1966 1966,11 .D:lcember 9, 1966, and the corresponding re·· are published in Series P-25, No. 385. ports for earlier years of the decade. I ( f , ~ r 2 rates for broad age groups to the rates for the Estimates of the migration between States Of school-age population 7.50 to 15.49 for the period the group 65 years old and over were based on dat April 1960 to July 1966 are as follows: on the interstate migration of "aged beneficiaries~ for each State for the fiscal years 1959-60, 1964-65 Age group on estimated date and 1965-66 obtained from the Social Security Administration. (Since data on interstate migration Under 5 years ......... 0.686 of aged beneficiaries were not available for the in~ 5 to 17 years ...... ) , 1.022 tervening years, it was assumed that the average 18 to 44 years ......... 1.503 annual migration of these three years prevailed 45 to 64 years ......... 0.491 throughout the 1960-66 period.) The reported nurn. These are relationships among gross. interstate bers of beneficiaries who migrated were adjusted migrants for the United States as a whole. for differences between States in insurance cover. Obviously, migration ratios for individual States age, and the State estimates were adjusted to tie may vary from the National ratios; however, annual in with the level of interstate migration of per. migration figures for States are not available. sons aged 65 and over for the United States for Moreover, the net ratios by age could well differ the period from April 1960 to July 1966, as esti. from the ratios of gross rates. Nonetheless, it mated from the Current Population Survey. is assumed here that these same ratios apply equally to all States, and also for a given State, The initial migration estimates derived for the that the direction of the net migration is the same age groups in each State were adjusted to be con. for all of the broad age groups under 65. sistent with independent State migration totals for all ages implied in the State estimates pub. Examination of the Current Population Survey lished in Current Population Reports, Series P-25, material on annual interstate migration has indi­ No. 380. The effect of thfs adjustment on the age cated that given the specific age pattern of estimates is discussed in the section" Accuracy of migration rates shown by the Current Population estimates" below. Survey for 'the last several years, the ratio of the net migration rate of a particular age group to the The net movement of civilians into the Armed net migration rate of the "school-age" population Forces for each State was estimated for each age (7.50 to 15.49) will vary with the length of the group by subtracting (1) the number of persons in estimating period. Thus, the ratio of a 6-year that age cohort serving in the Armed Forces on period is different from the corresponding ratio for April 1, 1960, who reported the State as their a I-year pe:riod. The procedure developed to derive preservice residence from (2) the number of per. the ratios shown above is as follows: Annual sons in the age group serving in the Armed Forces migration rates by single years of age for each on the estimate date who reported the State as year 1960 to 1966 were derived by graphic inter­ their preservice residence. To this was added an polation of the data for broad"'age groups for each allowance for former residents of the State in the year provided by the Current Population Survey. age cohort who died during this period while serv­ The interpolated migration rates were then applied ing in the Armed Forces. to annual estimates of population by single years of age, and the resulting estimates of the number of Estimates for 1961 to 1965.--Estimates for migrants in each year of age were cumulated by July 1, 1961 to 1965, were derived in the same cohort as required for the estimating period. For manner as those for July 1, 1966. example, the number of persons 45 to 64 years of age on July 1, 1966 who had migrated during the Provisional estimates for 1967.--The estimates period April 1, 1960 to July 1, 1966, was derived for July 1, 1967, were also derived by a component by summing the number of persons 45 to 64 years approach similar to that used for preparing the old on July 1, 1966 who had migrated between estimates for 196.6.
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