Chirag Garg & Salman Khan | NYSE:C | October 12, 2001
What is Citigroup?
Ticker symbol C on the Pacific Stock Exchange and NYSE
A diversified financial services company encompassing Investment Banking, Commercial Banking and Insurance
Both consumer and corporate clients in over 100 Countries/Territories
1 Management & Info
Management CEO Sandy Weill CFO Todd Thomson COO Bob Druskin
Current Stock Price: $ 42.70
The company is divided into three lines of business.
Global Consumer Business
Citibank SSB Private Equity/ Private Banking Cards Consumer Financing Insurance
2 Asset Management
Similar to Private Equity/ Banking except open to all high net worth clients.
Global Corporate Business
SSB Global Relationship Banking Emerging Markets Property Insurance E-Business
3 Financial Services Market
Comprises of investment banks, commercial banks and insurance companies.
Diversified financial services includes two or more of these aspects.
Glass-Steagall Act void.
Operating above the S&P in the past and present. Will do until S&P picks back up.
Credit Card use on the rise; bankruptcy laws set to change.
FIN SERVICES
S&P 500
CITIGROUP
Competitors
Primary American Express (NYSE:AXP) $29.99 Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MWD) $51.46
Secondary JP Morgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) $32.49 Credit Suisse First Boston (NYSE:CSR) $34.05
4 Competitive Advantage
Diversification
Financial Services Market
Credit Card Debt/ Increased Use
Qualitative Reasoning
Emerging Markets Investment High competitor Best in Latin America
Credit Card Debt
Low Borrowing Rates (2.5%)
Wealthy clientele
Insurance
Investment Banks needed
5 Quantitative Reasoning
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Competitive Analysis
Citigroup(C) American Express(AXP) Morgan Stanley (MWD) Unit Price 42.7 29 49.26 $ Market Cap 214,800.00 38400 54600 $MM 52-Week High 57.375 61.438 90.49 $ 52-w eek Low 34.51 24.2 35.75 $ % of high 74.4 47.2 54.4 % % over low 124 120 138 % Price/Earnings(ttm) 16.19 18.42 14.2 x Price/Book(mrq) 3.12 3.27 2.8 x Profit Margin(ttm) 11.6 9.2 8.5 % Return on Equity(ttm) 22.7 18.64 20.88 %
6 Dividend Discount Model
DIVIDEND DISCOUNT MODEL FOR STABLE GROWTH: Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Damodaran Figures (Past 4 yrs)
ROE 17% 17% Modified Dividend Payout Ratio 56.40% 70.59%
Growth till perpetuity 5.00% 5.00% Current Earnings ($BN) $13.99 $13.99 Risk Free Rate 5.10% 5.10% Risk Premium 4.00% 4.00% Beta 1.00 1.00 Cost of Equity 9.10% 9.10%
Valuation Value of Equity ($BN) $202.11 $252.90 # of Shares (BN) 5.03 5.03 Intrinsic Value per share $40.18 $50.28 Actual Value per share $42.70 $42.70
Judah Kraushaar
Top analyst at Merrill Lynch says:
Exceptional Diversification
Undervalued
Not yet living up to forecasted P/E
3Q trough and yet still 18% ROE
Stock could double within a year
(Taken on October 3 2001)
7 P/E Spread Model
P/E Spread 2000 2001 2002 2003 Earnings 13.52 15.41 17.57 20.03 Shares Outstanding 5.02 5.02 5.02 EPS 3.07 3.50 3.99 at 14x 42.98 49.00 55.86
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