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North Carolina Supplemental Retirement Plans Goalmaker Review JANUARY 2013 (REVISED FEBRUARY 2013)

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North Carolina Supplemental Retirement Plans Goalmaker Review JANUARY 2013 (REVISED FEBRUARY 2013) North Carolina Supplemental Retirement Plans GoalMaker Review JANUARY 2013 (REVISED FEBRUARY 2013) Jay Love, CFA Agenda • Glidepath Design – “To Retirement” vs. “Through Retirement” • Phase I Proposal – Initial GoalMaker Enhancements – Implementing Phase I • Phase II – Further Enhancements in Process MERCER 1 “To Retirement” vs. “Through Retirement” Automatic asset allocation glidepath to retirement Typical Target Date Fund Glidepath 100% 90% 80% 70% ) Stable Value 60% Fixed Income 50% Equity 40% Allocation (% Inflation Protection 30% 20% 10% 0% 2055 2050 2045 2040 2035 2030 2025 2020 2015 2010 Income 2055 2050 2045 2040 2035 2030 2025 2020 2015 2010 Income Expected Return 7.54% 7.22% 7.18% 7.13% 7.03% 6.81% 6.56% 6.22% 5.87% 5.57% 5.18% Expected Risk 17.60% 16.93% 16.72% 16.40% 15.76% 14.40% 13.03% 11.31% 9.75% 8.51% 7.13% Worst Case: 1 Yr, 2.5% Prob -27.67% -26.65% -26.25% -25.67% -24.48% -22.00% -19.50% -16.41% -13.62% -11.45% -9.08% MERCER 3 “To retirement” vs. “through retirement” • The “to” versus “through” distinction centers around how a glidepath (i.e., the evolving mix of equity and fixed income) should be designed once a target date fund reaches the target year of an individual’s retirement • “To retirement” funds: – Designed primarily to build savings up to an individual’s target retirement date – Generally have more conservative allocations to equity (or other risky assets) at an individual’s target retirement date, typically with a flat or static allocation during later retirement years – Anticipates that participants withdraw all funds at retirement • “Through retirement” funds: – Designed to help investors save through retirement, based on the philosophy that at age 65, an individual still has at least 20 years (or more) of life expectancy – Because of increased longevity, investors need their accumulated balances to last them long after retirement – Generally have higher allocations to equity (or other risky assets) at an individual’s target retirement date, with a declining equity allocation (i.e., equity exposure roll down) for a number of years post- retirement – Anticipates that participants remain in plan after retirement • Large plan sponsors typically offer a “through retirement” glidepath – Examples: City of New York (custom), State of Ohio (custom), State of Texas (mutual funds), State of California (custom), State of Mississippi (mutual funds) MERCER 4 “To retirement” vs. “through retirement” Source: Defined Contribution Institutional Investment Association, 2012 MERCER 5 “To retirement” vs. “through retirement” DC spend down: The next big challenge • Historically, sponsors focused on wealth accumulation and retirement readiness What is spend down? The process of drawing down • Sponsor focus is now shifting to the drawdown of assets – challenges include: DC plan assets for purposes – Addressing longevity, inflation and market risks of providing income and – Providing education and tools to help participants plan and meeting expenses in manage retirement retirement – Understanding and evaluating the available product solutions – The NC DB transfer benefit provides a cost effective means for participants to convert a portion of their savings Retirement phase to an annuity receiving greater focus Accumulation and Spend Down Over Time $2,000,000 $1,800,000 Savings Phase Retirement $1,600,000 Current Age = 18 Salary = $38,000 $1,400,000 Current Account Balance = $6,000 $1,200,000 Contribution Rate = 6.0% Expected Pre-Retirement Return = 8.2% $1,000,000 Expected Salary Increase = 3.0% Retirement Age = 65 $800,000 Wealth ($) Wealth Replacement Ratio = 70% $600,000 $400,000 $200,000 Retirement Savings Spend Down $0 5 5 3 9 3 3 3 3 3 19 21 23 2 27 29 31 33 3 37 39 41 4 45 47 4 51 5 55 57 59 61 6 65 67 69 71 7 75 77 79 81 8 85 87 89 91 9 95 MERCER Age 6 “To retirement” vs. “through retirement” Current NCSRP glidepath: Hybrid to/through retirement construction Total Equity Allocation (includes REITs and Commodities) vs. Mercer Target-Date Universe 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% % of Total Allocation 30% 5th-25th 25th-Median 20% Median-75th 75th-95th Current Conservative 10% Current Moderate Current Aggressive 0% 2055 2050 2045 2040 2035 2030 2025 2020 2015 2010 Income 16+ 11-15 6-10 0-5 Mercer Target-Date Universe based on Mercer Third Quarter 2012 Target Date Fund Survey and includes 35 off-the-shelf target-date strategies. • Reallocation begins at 16 years to retirement (approximately year 2030), in 5-year increments • “To retirement” glidepath, but with “through retirement” allocation – Equity exposure at retirement is appropriate for a 10+ year horizon – No further equity exposure roll-down post-retirement – Allocation will become too aggressive after retirement MERCER 7 Phase I Initial GoalMaker Enhancements North Carolina GoalMaker Portfolios (Current) Conservative Moderate Aggressive 0-5 Yrs 6-10 Yrs 11-15 Yrs 16+ Yrs 0-5 Yrs 6-10 Yrs 11-15 Yrs 16+ Yrs 0-5 Yrs 6-10 Yrs 11-15 Yrs 16+ Yrs Stable Value 44% 39% 23% 14% 35% 23% 16% 7% 21% 16% 9% 0% Fixed Income 32% 27% 26% 16% 25% 26% 19% 8% 25% 19% 11% 0% Large Cap Equity 10% 14% 22% 30% 16% 22% 28% 34% 24% 28% 32% 38% Small/Mid Cap Equity 6% 8% 12% 16% 10% 12% 14% 20% 12% 14% 20% 26% International Equity 8% 12% 17% 24% 14% 17% 23% 31% 18% 23% 28% 36% Diversified Inflation Hedge 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Expected Return 4.93% 5.47% 6.32% 7.16% 5.78% 6.32% 6.95% 7.76% 6.46% 6.95% 7.57% 8.29% Expected Risk 5.41% 7.10% 10.22% 13.75% 8.19% 10.22% 12.79% 16.58% 10.76% 12.79% 15.66% 19.47% Worst Case: 1 Yr, 2.5% Prob -5.89% -8.72% -14.12% -20.33% -10.59% -14.12% -18.63% -25.39% -15.07% -18.63% -23.75% -30.65% 9.0% • North Carolina increased the GoalMaker Portfolios’ exposure to 8.0% international equity, as compared to 7.0% Morningstar’s standard glidepath in 2010 6.0% Geometric Return 5.0% 4.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% 20.0% Standard Deviation Current Conservative Current Moderate Current Aggressive MERCER 9 Mercer’s capital market assumptions Long-term (20-year) projections – October 2012 Risk/Return Assumptions Geometric Arithmetic Standard Return Return Deviation Stable Value/GICs 3.4% 3.4% 3.0% US Aggregate Fixed Income 3.6% 3.7% 5.0% US Large Cap Equity 7.6% 9.4% 20.0% US Small/Mid Cap Equity 7.7% 10.0% 23.0% AC World ex-US All Cap Equity Unhedged 8.6% 10.5% 21.1% US Inflation Indexed Fixed Income 2.7% 2.8% 4.5% US REITs 7.3% 8.6% 17.0% Commodities 4.1% 5.6% 18.0% Correlation Assumptions AC World ex- US Inflation Stable US Aggregate US Large Cap US Small/Mid US All Cap Indexed Fixed US REITs Commodities Value/GICs Fixed Income Equity Cap Equity Equity Income Unhedged Stable Value/GICs 1.00 US Aggregate Fixed Income 0.10 1.00 US Large Cap Equity 0.05 0.10 1.00 US Small/Mid Cap Equity 0.30 0.10 0.88 1.00 AC World ex-US All Cap Equity Unhedged 0.00 0.05 0.76 0.66 1.00 US Inflation Indexed Fixed Income 0.20 0.60 0.15 0.15 0.13 1.00 US REITs 0.50 0.30 0.70 0.75 0.60 0.35 1.00 Commodities 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.30 0.10 1.00 MERCER 10 Asset allocation approach Historical and expected equity returns Compounding Effect 10 • From 1959 through 2011, the S&P 9.4% 500 earned a 9.4% geometric return 3.3% 2.8% – Earnings have not matched 8 economic growth Dividend Risk 7.6% Income Premium 2.3% • We forecast 7.6% for the S&P 500 5.9% Dividend 6 2.4% – Lower income return, as dividends Income Risk are much lower Real Premium Earnings 2.7% – Higher earnings growth because of Growth lower dividends 4 Real – No P/E impact Earnings 6.6% Growth – Lower inflation 2 Long Gov Bonds 2.5% 4.0% 1.7% Inflation Inflation 10-Year Treasury 0 Yield -0.3% P/E Historic S&P Historic S&P Mercer Mercer ERP Expansion 500 Growth 500 ERP Gr ow th Data sources: Standard & Poor’s and Federal Reserve -2 Analysis by Mercer MERCER 11 Bond returns July 2012 assumptions Components of Equilibrium Yields 3-Month 1-Year 5-Year 10-Year 30-Year Real Yield Curve 0.80 1.35 1.70 2.00 2.10 Expected Inflation 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 Inflation Risk Premium 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.25 0.30 Nominal Yield Curve 3.35 3.95 4.35 4.75 4.90 AA Corp Default Spreads 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 Corporate Yield Curve 3.95 4.65 5.15 5.65 5.90 Current Real Yields -- -0.34 -1.00 -0.46 0.56 Current Treasury Yield Curve 0.09 0.21 0.72 1.67 2.76 BofA/ML AA Yields -- 0.67 2.04 3.25 4.28 LIBOR 0.46 -- -- -- -- Current Equilibrium Modified 1-Year 2-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year 20-Year Domestic Fixed Yield Yield Adj Expected Expected Expected Expected Expected Expected Income Duration Aggregate 2.2% 5.1% -1.3% -0.9% -0.6% 0.0% 2.5% 3.8% 4.9 Intermediate G/C 1.5% 4.9% -1.0% -0.7% -0.4% 0.3% 2.6% 3.8% 3.9 Long G/C 3.9% 5.5% -2.5% -2.2% -1.9% -1.3% 2.0% 3.7% 14.3 Very Long Government 2.9% 5.0% -6.2% -5.9% -5.6% -4.9% -0.1% 2.4% 20.0 Inflation Indexed 1.7% 4.3% -0.3% -0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 2.3% 3.3% N/A Cash 0.0% 3.3% 0.4% 0.7% 1.0% 1.7% 2.5% 3.0% 0.2 MERCER 12 Glidepath enhancements Morningstar – standard version Conservative Moderate Aggressive 0-5 Yrs 6-10 Yrs 11-15 Yrs 16+ Yrs 0-5 Yrs 6-10 Yrs 11-15 Yrs 16+ Yrs 0-5 Yrs 6-10 Yrs 11-15 Yrs 16+ Yrs Stable Value 44% 39% 23% 14% 35% 23% 16% 7% 21% 16% 9% 0% Fixed Income 32% 27% 26% 16% 25% 26% 19% 8% 25% 19% 11% 0% Large Cap Equity 10% 14% 22% 30% 16% 22% 28% 34% 24% 28% 32% 38% Small/Mid Cap Equity 6% 8% 12% 16% 10% 12% 14% 20% 12% 14% 20% 26% International Equity 8% 12% 17% 24% 14% 17% 23% 31% 18% 23% 28% 36% Diversified Inflation Hedge 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Expected Return 4.93% 5.47% 6.32% 7.16% 5.78% 6.32% 6.95% 7.76% 6.46% 6.95% 7.57% 8.29% Expected Risk
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