RESEARCH: AND INDUSTRY IN BiBrief Present ati on INTRODUCTION

Ameria CJSC has initiated the implementation of comprehensive sectorial researches on the . Short‐term plans include researches in Retail Trade, and Tourism, Food Processing, Mining, Telecommunications, which will be followed by other sectors of interest in Armenian economy. The researches will enable all stakeholders to effectively assess the current market trends, their weaknesses and strengths, as well as emerggging opportunities. This report presents the results of the first comprehensive study on Tourism and Hotel Industry in Armenia. The Tourism and Hotel Industry report could be of high interest for all the ppylayers in hosppyitality industry in Armenia, including existing hotels, tour operators, potential investors and also for other researchers.

2 SERVICE SECTOR

Structure of Services 2011,% Regional Distribution of Services, 2011

Information and communication 22.9 Information and communication 88.5 11.5 Financial and insurance activities 22.3 Financial and insurance activities 79.2 20.8 Тransportation 20.6 Тransportation 87.4 12.6 Professional, scientific and technical… 5.6 Professional, scientific and technical … 95.4 464.6 Education 5.6 Education 86.5 13.5 Administrative and support service … 5.5 Administrative and support service … 95.8 4.2 Accommodation and food service … 5.1 Accommodation and food service activities 87.7 12.3 Human health and social work activities 3.8 Human health and social work activities 72.9 27.1 Arts, entertainment and recreation 3.7 Arts, entertainment and recreation 79.6 20.4 Real estate activities 3.2 Real estate activities 92.3 7.7 Other service activities 1.7 Other service activities 76.7 23.3 0 5 10 15 20 25 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Real Change in Services, 2011,% Other marzes

Information and communication 1.1 ¾ The Accommodation and Food Financial and insurance activities 24.3 Service activities comprise 5.1% of all Тransportation 0.2 Professional, scientific and technical activities ‐7.2 services rendered to population, Education 2.1 Administrative and support service activities ‐2.1 ¾ The sector was among 4 top Accommodation and food service activities 7.5 services by the growth in 2011 Human health and social work activities 13.7 (7.5%). Arts, entertainment and recreation 13.5 Real estate activities ‐0.1 Other service activities 4.7

‐10 ‐5 0 5 1015202530

Source: NSS RA 3 GOVERNMENT TARGETS: TOURISM

In February 2008, theGovernmentof Armenia adddopted an ambitious tourism dldevelopment concept paper with the goal to increase the contribution of tourism to gross national income, balanced development, improvement of living standards and poverty alleviation in rural areas, preconditione d throug h an increase in titourism arrilivals, an increase in titourism revenue and jbjob creation. Targets established by the concept paper are as follows:

Targets 2020 2030 PRIMARY TARGETS Arrivals (CAGR –9%) 1.5 million 3 million Income Generated from Inbound Tourism (CAGR 11% at 2007 US$1. 35 billion US$3 billion prices) Internal Tourism Visits 1 million 1.5 million Tourism Employment as a % of Total Employment 1.9% 2.0% SECONDARY TARGETS Armenia’s Market Share in 0.18% 0.31% Total Bed Spaces 49,315 51,370 Hotel Occupancy Rates 50% 60% Per Capita Daily Expenditure (2007 prices) $60 $67 Armenia’s Ranking in WEF T&TC Index <60 <50 Government Tourism Expenditure US$ 7.9 million US$ 49 million

4 WEF T&T COMPETITIVENESS INDEX

Armenia (Rank) (Rank) (Rank) 2011 Index (out of 139 countri)ies) 90 73 83 2009 Index (out of 133 countries) 91 73 76 Ranking among European countries (out 40 36 ‐ of 42 countrii)es) T&T regulatory framework 58 35 59 T&T business environment and 100 94 87 ifinfrastructure T&T Human, Cultural and Natural 107 92 105 resources

5 INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ARRIVALS

International Tourists Arrival to Armenia International Tourists Arrival, 2012/2011 800 757.9 610 684.0 603.1 700 600 People eople

575.3

558.4 PP ss 600

590 510.6 500 580 382.2 570 400 318.6 Thousand 560 300 263.0 Thousands 551.6 206.1 550 200 162.2 114.5 540 100 530 0 520 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2011, Jan‐Sept 2012, Jan‐Sept Source: NSS RA Source: NSS RA ¾ The number of international arrivals to the country –incoming tourism, is steadily growing since the celebrations of the 1700th anniversary of adopting Christianity in 2001, ¾ The number of incoming tourists growth CAGR for the period of 2001‐2011 comprises around 18.74% , which proves the high development potential of the sector in the country, ¾ The number of incoming tourists equals to 603,074 for the first nine months of the year 2012, which is around 9.4% more than for the same period of the previous year,

6 INTERNAL TOURISM IN ARMENIA

Internal Tourists Internal Tourists, 2012/2011 600 66 000 489.4 63 963 500 456.4 64 000

People 447.2 People

435.7 ss 400 369.0 62 000 308.0 60 000 300 270.2

Thousand 239.8 58 000 195.1 56 504 200 117.1 121.3 56 000 100 54 000

0 52 000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2011, Jan‐June 2012, Jan‐June Source: NSS RA Source: NSS RA

¾ The number of internal tourists in the country is steadily growing at CAGR of around 13.9% for the period of 2001‐2011, which clearly shows the existing development potential of internal tourism in the country, ¾ The number of internal tourists equals to 63,963 for the first half of the year 2012, which is around 13.2% more than for the same period of the previous y,year,

7 HOTELS SUPPLY: OVERVIEW

Number of Available Hotels Hotel’s Accommodation Capacity 160 12 000 142 143 692 Armenia

140 9 Armenia 118 10 000 Yerevan 005

120 110 04 Yerevan 372 4 8 73 99 22

ss 66 101 88 7

7 95 8 000 4 29

6 100 6 76 6 80 6 000 161

Units 4 223 056 052 60 924 898 894

46 46

45 4 000 3 42 42 Beds/place 3 41 3 2 2 40 33 2 2 000 20 0 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: NSS RA Source: NSS RA ¾ During the period of 2005‐2011 the total number of hotels have almost doubled in Armenia, however the bed capacity increased only around 1.4 times, i.e. more facilities with small number of rooms were opened in thecountry, ¾ During the same period the number of hotels in Yerevan grew for around 40%, while the number of available rooms cappyacity for only 5%, ¾ Today Yerevan hosts around 46 different types of hotels with approximately 3,200 beds in total. Additionally, there are around 30 different types of guest houses, B&Bs and other accommodations in Yerevan with around 700 beds in total. Hence, total accommodation capacity of Yerevan is around 3,900 beds/places.

8 HOTELS SUPPLY: OVERVIEW

Number of Hotels by Type Distribution , 2012

Economy Upper 77% upscale 3% ¾ The majority of hotels, operating in Upscale 8% Armenia does not belong to any chain, neither

Midscale iilinternational or lllocal, 12% ¾ There are mainly an economy class (around Source: various online booking systems, NSS RA 77%) and midscale class (12%) hotels

Number of Hotel Rooms by Type Distribution , 2012 available in the country, ¾ The main part of available hotel rooms are Economy 39% classified as economy (around 39%), upscale Midscale Upper (27%) and midscale (24%), 24% upscale Upscale 10% 27%

Source: various online booking systems, NSS RA

9 HOTELS SUPPLY: ROOM RATES

Average AlAnnual Room RtRates for 2010 Single Room 559 600 Double Room 500 Junior Suite SD Executive Suite UU 400 345 in

300 228 239 199

Rates 180 136 200 129 124 109 97 76 92 74 94 100 53 0 Upper upscale Upscale Midscale Economy Hotel Class

Average Annual Room Rates for 2012 Single Room 600 526 Double Room 500 Junior Suite Executive Suite USD 400 348 in

300 230 231 200 188 Rates 200 139 139 200 107 127 104 116 78 94 70 86 100 0 Upper upscale Upscale Midscale Economy Hotel Class

10 HOTELS SUPPLY: OCCUPANCY

Annual Hotel Performance by Upper Upscale Annual Hotel Performance by Midscale Hotels Hotels 55% 56% 54% 53% 70% 62% 63% 65% 65% 54% 52% 56% 58% 60% 52% 60% 54% 52% 51% 50% 50% 49% 47% 40% 48% 30% 46% 20% 44% 10% 0% 42% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (F) 2013 (F) 2014 (F) 2015 (F) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (F) 2013 (F) 2014 (F) 2015 (F)

Annual Hotel Performance by Upscale Hotels Annual Hotel Performance by Economy Hotels 47% 50% 45% 46% 46% 80% 72% 72% 72% 42% 44% 66% 69% 70% 62% 36% 57% 40% 35% 60% 56% 50% 30% 40% 20% 30% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (F) 2013 (F) 2014 (F) 2015 (F) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (F) 2013 (F) 2014 (F) 2015 (F)

Source: Expert Assessment

11 REGIONAL COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS

Number of Incoming Tourists in Regional Countries

3.0 2.82 Armenia Georgia 2.5 Azerbaijan People 2.03

6 0 n

2.0 55 55 oo 1. 1. 1.29 1.5 1.28 Milli 1.05 1.04 1.01 0.99 0.77 0.76 0.76

1.0 0.73 0.69 0.68 0.68 0.58 0.58 0.56 0.56 0.51 .26 0.38 0.37 .21 0.32 0.31 0.30 .16 0.5 00 00 0 0.0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 ¾ As of the 2011 around 5.2 million people have visited South countries on business, leisure or other types of trips, ¾ In 2011 Georgia is the most visited among South Caucasus countries by international tourists, followed by Azerbaijan and Armenia, ¾The share of people, visiting Georgia among all South Caucasus countries has doubled during the recent decade – from 28.8% in 2002 to 54.9% in 2011, while the share of Armenia remains almost unchanged (15.6% in 2002 vs. 14.7% in 2011) and the share of Azerbaijan has declined (55.6% in 2002 vs. 30.4% in 2011), ¾CAGR of the number of international arrivals is the highest for Georgia (25.2% over the last decade), fllfollowe dby AiArmenia (16.7%) and AbijAzerbaijan (10.5%). This iditindicators show hig h regilional titourism development potential, particularly for Georgia and Armenia.

12 RECENT HOTEL INVESTMENTS

According to the plans of existing hotels, as well as the announced entries of new hotels, it is estimated that approximately 1,000 new hotel rooms will enter the Yerevan hotel market by 2015/16, of which approximately 48% are expected to be actively under development. A significant number of the new hotels are expected to be affiliated with global brands and be of international quality and service offerings. Among new entries are: Chain Brand Opening Date Number of Rooms/Beds Hyatt Hyatt Place 2013 95/190 Wyydandham Hooetel GoupGroup Wyydandham2014 203/406 InterContinental Hotels Crowne Plaza 2014 140/280 Group Wyndham Hotel Group Ramada 2013‐2014 120/240 Accor Ibis 2015‐2016 176/429 Wyndham Hotel Group Howard Johnson 2014‐2015 120/200 Total 854/1,745 Also, it is announced that the current buildings of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Post Office will be converted to hotels by around 2016‐2017 adding in total 358 rooms to the market. Also during 2013‐2014 around 160 rooms will be added by existing hotels.

13 FORECASTS OF INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE

HtlHotel IdIndust ry FtForecast and Share in GDP

120 0.79% 0.79% 0.9% 0.8% 100 0.66% 0.67%

SD 0.7% UU 80 0.6% mln

0.5%

in 60 0.4% 95.2 99.6 40 72.1 77.5 0.3% 0.2% Volume, 20 0.1% 0 0.0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 Hotel Industry Forecasted Volume Industry Forecasted Share in GDP, % ¾ The Armenian hotel industry turnover is assessed based on: 9 the average occupancy rate for each hotel class, revealed during the study, 9 current number of available rooms for each hotel class and their expected increase, 9 average room rates, adjusted for each distribution channel, ¾ According to our assessment the Armenian hotel industry’s real turnover is expected to grow at an CAGR of around 8.4% during the coming years, ¾ According to our assessment the Armenian hotel industry’ s real share in country’ s GDP is around 0.66% and it is forecasted to grow up to 0.79% by 2015.

14 FORECASTS OF INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE

Average IditIndicators for Different Class HHtlotels, 2012 ‐ 2015 Upper Upscale Upscale Midscale Economy Average number of rooms 120 100 60 15 2012: 62% 2012: 69% 2012: 52% 2012: 45% Average occupancy, % 2015:65% 2015: 72% 2015: 55% 2015: 47% Average room rate (ARR), USD USD 176.00 USD 98.00 USD 69.00 USD 63.00 Average IRR, % 11.8% 12.2% 13.6% 13.1%

Source: Expert assessment

¾Based on the findings above an analysis of average hotel performance in each category was implemented, ¾Relatively good performing Armenian hotels based on the average IRR are hotels in midscale category, ¾ The performance of upper upscale and upscale hotels in terms of average IRR is approximately the same, however the upper upscale hotels perform better in terms of average EBITDA.

15 CONTENT OF RESEARCH Summary……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………4 Macroeconomic Overview………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….7 Service Sector………………………………………………………………………….……………………………………………………………….18 Government Targets: Tourism……………………………………………………………………..………...... 20 WEF T&T Competitiveness Index………………………………………………………………………………………………………………22 International Tourism Arrivals…………………………………………………………………..……………………………………………..25 Origin of International Arrivals…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………27 Place of Stay in Armenia…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..29 Purpose of International Arrivals………………………………………………………………………………………………………………30 Internal Tourism in Armenia……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..32 Purpose of Internal Tourism……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..34 Hotels Supply……………...…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..36 Distribution Channels……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….50 Capital Hotel Development Cost………………………………………………………………………………………………………………51 HlHotel Management PiPractice……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 53 Regional Comparative Analysis …………………………………………………………………………………………………………….….54 Recent Hotel Investments……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..…56 Forecasts of Industry Performance…………………………………………………………………………………………………………..58

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