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Office Savills Research Shanghai – July 2019 MARKET IN MINUTES Office Savills Research Savills team Please contact us for further information RESEARCH James Macdonald Senior Director China +8621 6391 6688 james.macdonald@ savills.com.cn COMMERCIAL Cary Zheng Senior Director Central China +8621 6391 6688 cary.zheng@ Office rents continue to fall savills.com.cn Core office rents fell by 0.2% in Q2/2019 despite a dip in vacancy rates. Peter Sheng Director Shanghai +8621 6391 6688 • SOHO Gubei launched onto the core office market in • Vacancy rates in decentralised areas fell by 3.6 ppts quarter- peter.sheng@ savills.com.cn Q2/2019, adding 70,300 sq m of new office space and pushing on-quarter (QoQ) to 30.3% in Q2/2019, while rents remained core Grade A office stock up to 9.0 million sq m by the end of flat at RMB5.82 per sq m per day. Leon Fu Q2/2019. Senior Director • Economic uncertainties and more availability lead to longer Shanghai • Net take-up increased by 24% in Q2/2019, totalling 108,700 decision-making periods by tenants. Landlords increased +8621 6391 6688 sq m, though it remained down 72% year-on-year (YoY). The concessions due to fierce competition from abundant new [email protected] prime Puxi recorded positive absorption for the first time in supply. a year, absorbing 18,800 sq m of vacant stock. Savills plc Savills is a leading global real estate service provider listed on • Thanks to stronger take-up, vacancy rates fell by 0.5 of a the London Stock Exchange. The company established in 1855, has percentage point (ppt) in Q2/2019 to 11.9%. “ China’s increasing importance a rich heritage with unrivalled growth. It is a company that leads rather than follows, and now has to global retail brands is over 600 offices and associates • Core market rents continued to decrease by 0.2% on an throughout the Americas, Europe, index basis in Q2/2019, to an average of RMB8.96 per sq m Asia Pacific, Africa and the Middle translating into stronger East. This report is for general per day. informative purposes only. It may not be published, reproduced or office demand from these quoted in part or in whole, nor may it be used as a basis for any • Three new projects were handed over in the decentralised contract, prospectus, agreement market in Q2/2019, adding 171,200 sq m of new office space. companies, both for new or other document without prior consent. Whilst every effort has Total decentralised stock totalled 4.2 million sq m by the been made to ensure its accuracy, leases and upgrades.” Savills accepts no liability end of Q2/2019. whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from its JAMES MACDONALD, SAVILLS RESEARCH use. The content is strictly copyright and reproduction of the whole or part of it in any form is prohibited without written permission from Savills Research. savills.com.cn/research 1 Office CORE MARKET and Houtan recorded significant improvements GRAPH 1: Grade A Office Core Market Supply, in occupancy (each up 15-20 ppts), though rates Take-up And Vacancy, 2014 to 1H/2019 SOHO Gubei launched onto the core office market in Q2/2019, adding 70,300 sq m of new remain low compared to other decentralised Supply (LHS) Take-up (LHS) Vacancy (RHS) office space. Located in Changning’s Hongqiao markets in the city. Future projects in the 1.4 14% area, the project has direct access to the Yili remainder of 2019 will concentrate in the Road Metro Station (Line 10) and consists of Expo and Houtan areas in Pudong, and Xuhui 1.2 12% two towers—a 38-storey tower for office use and Riverside in Puxi area. a 12-storey building which was wholly leased to Decentralised office rents remained flat on 1.0 10% Joya Hotel by Huazhu Group. As a result, the an index basis at an average of RMB5.82 per core Grade A office stock was pushed up to 9.0 sq m per day. However, several landlords have 0.8 8% million sq m by the end of Q2/2019. started to consider lowering rates and relaxing Net take-up increased by 24% in Q2/2019, their rules when it comes to preferred tenant 0.6 6% totalling 108,700 sq m, though it remained background and covenant strength, given million million sq m down 72% YoY. Non-prime Puxi contributed sluggish leasing performances and looming 0.4 4% 65% of total take-up, while prime Puxi recorded supply. positive absorption for the first time in a year, 0.2 2% absorbing 18,800 sq m of vacant stock. Xujiahui MARKET OUTLOOK saw office space being handed back to the market The Shanghai Stock Exchange launched 0.0 0% with landlords losing 1,900 sq m of tenants the Sci-Tech Innovation Board (SSE STAR 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 1H/2019 in Q2/2019, compared to 31,600 sq m of net Market). The new exchange will help small- absorption in Q1/2019 thanks to the handover of and medium-sized innovation companies— Source Savills Research ITC Ph2. especially high-tech and emerging industries As global retail brands continue to expand in such as artificial intelligence, biomedicine and the city, so do their office premises. Following new energy vehicles—to tap into a new pool of Under Armour’s leasing of three whole office financing enabling them to grow faster. This floors in South Huangpu in Q1/2019, Lindor could also prove important in generating new leased 800 sq m of office space in Taikang business opportunities for securities companies, GRAPH 2:Grade A Office Core Market Rental Insurance Building while Giorgio Armani took investment banks, and other entities that will Indices, Q3/2014 to Q2/2019 up 1,500 sq m in Wheelock Square, relocating facilitate the listing of these companies. from Plaza 66 in the same business area. L’Oréal The moderating vacancy rates in Q2/2019 Core areas average Prime Puxi Prime Pudong was rumoured to be expanding in the city as are believed to be temporary, as the second half Non-prime Puxi Non-prime Pudong well. of 2019 is expected to receive about 1.5 million 220 The average vacancy rate fell by 0.5 ppts in sq m of new supply in both the city’s core and Q2/2019 to 11.9%. Core market rents continued decentralised office markets. Continuous 200 to decrease by 0.2% on an index basis in Q2/2019, oversupply has intensified competition for currently averaging RMB8.96 per sq m per day. tenants and, consequently, landlords are willing 180 to pay more inspection incentives and higher commissions to brokers, while simultaneously 160 DECENTRALISED MARKET Three new projects were handed over in the increasing concessions when negotiating with potential occupiers. Q2/1999=100 140 decentralised market in Q2/2019, adding 171,200 sq m of new office space. New projects included: 120 Guohua Plaza in Wujiaochang, EBA Centre Definitions in East Bund and R&F Centre in Hongqiao Core prime: Nanjing Road (W), Huaihai Road (M), Lujiazui 100 Transportation Hub (HTH). Total decentralised Core non-prime: Old Huangpu, South Huangpu, Hongqiao, North Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Station, North Bund, Zhuyuan and Xujiahui. Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 stock increased to 4.2 million sq m by the end of 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q2/2019. Decentralised markets: All areas outside of the core markets Despite the new projects, the average vacancy including: Changfeng, Hongqiao Transportation Hub, Xuhui Source Savills Research rate in decentralised areas fell by 3.6 ppts in Riverside, Xinzhuang, Zhenru, Wujiaochang, Former Expo, Q2/2019 to 30.3%. Notably, Pudong’s Qiantan Qiantan, Houtan and Huamu. GRAPH 3: Grade A Office Core Market Vacancy, TABLE 1: Notable Leasing Transactions, Q2/2019 Q3/2014 to Q2/2019 TENANT BUSINESS LEASED Core areas average Prime Puxi Prime Pudong TENANT PROJECT Non-prime Puxi Non-prime Pudong INDUSTRY DISTRICT AREA (SQ M) 25% County Media Media SOHO Gubei Hongqiao 2,000 20% Wheelock Nanjing Road Giorgio Armani Retail & Trade 1,500 15% Square (W) 10% Groz-Beckert Manufacturing SOHO Gubei Hongqiao 1,200 5% Jiangsu Finance IFC Ph2 Lujiazui 1,000 International Trust 0% Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Taikang 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Lindor Retail & Trade Insurance Zhuyuan 800 Building Source Savills Research Source Savills Research savills.com.cn/research 2.
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