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The Emergence of Shanghai's Decentralised Office Market

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The Emergence of Shanghai's Decentralised Office Market The Emergence of Shanghai’s Decentralised Office Market Advance Executive Summary • Decentralised Grade A space is the next • Buildings that are well integrated into a cluster step in the evolution of Shanghai’s office of diverse property types will be the most market, following the path taken by mature successful in the decentralised office market by markets around the world. providing an attractive environment for tenants. • Shanghai is the first city in mainland China to The Next Step in Shanghai’s Office develop a clearly defined Decentralised Grade Evolution A market. The emergence of a decentralised Grade A office • An increasing number of new buildings, which market is the natural next step in the evolution are located just outside the CBD, are being built of Shanghai’s office market, following the path to high-quality specifications and are quickly taken by mature markets around the world. becoming conveniently accessible. Over the next two years, decentralised Grade A office space will be readily available in the • Owing to the rapidly growing metro rail system, Shanghai market, providing tenants with lower- better integration with the city centre means that cost options just a short distance from the CBD. decentralised tenants can reap the benefits of These projects represent the first generation lower occupancy costs while maintaining solid of Grade A quality space outside the CBD that employee retention. offer high-quality specification suitable for large • The CBD will have strong competition in the multinational occupiers. Until recently, Grade next few years as the booming decentralised A quality supply could not be found outside Grade A office market will offer highly the CBD. As Shanghai’s mass transportation competitive rental rates in the coming years. network expands ahead of the 2010 Shanghai • Over half of the existing tenants in decentralised World Expo, decentralised areas are becoming Grade A buildings were former CBD tenants. more convenient. Better integration with the city Going forward, many CBD tenants will be centre means that decentralised tenants can considering a decentralisation strategy. reap the benefits of lower occupancy costs while maintaining solid employee retention. A unified core CBD area emerges in Shanghai (published in 2007) ‘Premium Grade A’ emerges as a new building category (published in 2008) Decentralised Grade A space emerges as a major force in the market (published in 2009) Shanghai’s office market has developed significantly since the first modern office buildings were built in the early 1990s. Shanghai’s CBD reached a key stage of development in 2007 with the consolidation of its office clusters into a unified core. In 2008, the CBD again reached a key milestone as premium Grade A buildings outperformed the rest of the market. Today, Shanghai is evolving to the next step – the emergence of decentralised Grade A offices as important players in the market. Leading up to the 2010 Shanghai World Expo, Grade A quality buildings are appearing in the city’s decentralised areas, offering viable alternatives for major tenants. Growing from a nascent market a year ago, the role of these areas is already becoming more significant. This is similar to what happened in major markets around the region. Hong Kong, for example, has already experienced surging interest in decentralised areas outside of the traditional CBD for more than a decade. Decentralised Grade A buildings consist of high-rise office towers similar to those in the CBD. They are located within urbanised areas of Shanghai and are not on industrial land, within industrial development zones or within economic development areas with a specific high-tech orientation; these industrial locations are referred to as Business Parks. The Emergence of Shanghai’s Decentralised Office Market In mid-2009, the decentralised office market a two-year period of large new supply, in which comprised only 331,000 sqm of space. This new clusters of decentralised space will rapidly small market will grow to nearly 1.8 million emerge around the city. During 2010, the size of sqm by end-2013 (Figure 1), with 14 more new the decentralised market will double (Figure 1). decentralised Grade A projects slated to enter the Beyond 2013, the CBD will be completely built out, market in 2009 and 2010 alone. The completion and most new grade-A space will inevitably be in of four buildings in 1H09 marked the beginning of decentralised areas. Figure 1: Decentralised Grade A Space is Set to Take Off Figure 2: Decentralised Grade A Supply to Peak in 2010 Total Stock 2006 – 2013 New Supply 2006 – 2013 Total sqm of GFA New Supply (sqm) 2,000,000 800,000 1,500,000 600,000 1,000,000 400,000 200,000 500,000 0 0 2006 2007 2008 2009* 2010* 2011* 2012* 2013* 2006 2007 2008 2009* 2010* 2011* 2012* 2013* Decentralised CBD * Projected * Projected Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Source: Jones Lang LaSalle The First Decentralised Grade A Market in Mainland China Shanghai is the first city in mainland China to develop a decentralised GradeA office market. In order for a decentralised market to develop, a well-defined core area must already be established. In Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the office districts are not consolidated. Beijing contains 5 submarkets without one standing out as a CBD, while Guangzhou and Shenzhen both have office clusters but lack real CBDs. Shanghai’s establishment of a core CBD area in 2007 set the stage for a decentralised market to be clearly identifiable. Other major cities in China have not yet reached a point where it is viable for developers to build Grade A offices in decentralised areas. Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen are still in the process of building out CBD cores in Guomao, Zhujiang New Town, and Futian districts, respectively. These master planned areas are actually all centrally located within each city and are possible because of land availability. With large projects under development within these centralised areas, tenants do not need to look further out of the city. Rental savings are the key driver for tenants considering decentralised buildings. With supply booming as centralised areas continue to build out, CBD rents in Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen remain relatively low, reducing tenant interest in decentralised space. Indeed, Shanghai will still have substantial new supply enter the CBD over the next five years. Supply levels will be high enough to limit growth in rents in the CBD. However, Shanghai CBD rents are higher than Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen. Meaningful rental savings can be achieved through decentralization in Shanghai. After several years, land constraints will also begin to constrain future growth of office supply in the CBD. This is similar to what drove the formation of a decentralised market in Hong Kong. The Taikoo Shing and Quarry Bay areas of Hong Kong took off in the early 1990s to form a full fledged decentralised market known as Island East. Today this is being followed by another decentralised market emerging in Kowloon East, where significant new Grade A office space will be built over the coming years. Key Areas for Decentralised Grade A Space Most decentralised projects are located between Inner Ring Road and Middle Ring Road, indicated by the red-coloured region in Map 1. Map 1: Shanghai’s Office Areas Map 2: Shanghai Districts Core CBD Areas Other CBD Areas Decentralised Areas Suburban Areas Zhabei Puxi Hongkou Putuo Lujiazui Jing’an Huangpu Pudong Changning Luwan Xuhui Key CBD Districts Districts seeing major growth in decentralised Grade A Most decentralised Grade A space is being built in Puxi. By 2013, district is ready for the development of its very own Grade A office 83% of decentralised office space will be located there, with the cluster. This is now taking shape in the Changfeng area, only 2 remaining 17% in Pudong (Figure 3). This closely reflects the km north of the well-established Hongqiao office cluster, and in existing population distribution of the city, in which 76% of the the officially designated Zhenru sub-CBD that is now in the early city’s urban population resides in Puxi. Nearly 60% of the CBD’s stages of development. Also near the CBD area are the North Bund office space today is in Puxi, which means that roughly 60% of the and Sichuan Road in Hongkou. Hongkou will account for 21% city’s Grade A tenants are already located in Puxi. The growing of the decentralised market by 2013. Zhabei district, particularly decentralised market in Puxi will act as a natural extension of the the area around the railway station, will contain another 14% of large and mature base of offices already established in the Puxi the decentralised market. The district, which is located only three CBD. Tenants have shown a preference to stay on the same side of metro stops from the CBD, is anchored by the newly launched the river as their existing offices. Even as the CBD market becomes InterContinental Centre. Outlying parts of Changning district will evenly split between Puxi and Pudong over the next few years, form the rest of the decentralised market in Puxi, anchored by the Puxi’s decentralised market will be where a growing amount of new Dawning Centre project that was launched in 2008. Pudong will have Puxi space is built. a smaller but important decentralised market, with an office cluster now taking shape between the Longyang Road metro station and the Putuo district will have the largest share of the decentralised exhibition centre in Huamu. Lastly, the southern tip of Luwan District market by 2013, accounting for 26% of the total (Figure 4). As 1.1 will contain a few decentralised Grade A buildings near the World million Shanghai residents currently call Putuo their home, the Expo site.
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