The Emergence of Shanghai’s Decentralised Office Market Advance
Executive Summary • Decentralised Grade A space is the next • Buildings that are well integrated into a cluster step in the evolution of Shanghai’s office of diverse property types will be the most market, following the path taken by mature successful in the decentralised office market by markets around the world. providing an attractive environment for tenants. • Shanghai is the first city in mainland China to The Next Step in Shanghai’s Office develop a clearly defined Decentralised Grade Evolution A market. The emergence of a decentralised Grade A office • An increasing number of new buildings, which market is the natural next step in the evolution are located just outside the CBD, are being built of Shanghai’s office market, following the path to high-quality specifications and are quickly taken by mature markets around the world. becoming conveniently accessible. Over the next two years, decentralised Grade A office space will be readily available in the • Owing to the rapidly growing metro rail system, Shanghai market, providing tenants with lower- better integration with the city centre means that cost options just a short distance from the CBD. decentralised tenants can reap the benefits of These projects represent the first generation lower occupancy costs while maintaining solid of Grade A quality space outside the CBD that employee retention. offer high-quality specification suitable for large • The CBD will have strong competition in the multinational occupiers. Until recently, Grade next few years as the booming decentralised A quality supply could not be found outside Grade A office market will offer highly the CBD. As Shanghai’s mass transportation competitive rental rates in the coming years. network expands ahead of the 2010 Shanghai • Over half of the existing tenants in decentralised World Expo, decentralised areas are becoming Grade A buildings were former CBD tenants. more convenient. Better integration with the city Going forward, many CBD tenants will be centre means that decentralised tenants can considering a decentralisation strategy. reap the benefits of lower occupancy costs while maintaining solid employee retention.
A unified core CBD area emerges in Shanghai (published in 2007) ‘Premium Grade A’ emerges as a new building category (published in 2008) Decentralised Grade A space emerges as a major force in the market (published in 2009)
Shanghai’s office market has developed significantly since the first modern office buildings were built in the early 1990s. Shanghai’s CBD reached a key stage of development in 2007 with the consolidation of its office clusters into a unified core. In 2008, the CBD again reached a key milestone as premium Grade A buildings outperformed the rest of the market. Today, Shanghai is evolving to the next step – the emergence of decentralised Grade A offices as important players in the market.
Leading up to the 2010 Shanghai World Expo, Grade A quality buildings are appearing in the city’s decentralised areas, offering viable alternatives for major tenants. Growing from a nascent market a year ago, the role of these areas is already becoming more significant. This is similar to what happened in major markets around the region. Hong Kong, for example, has already experienced surging interest in decentralised areas outside of the traditional CBD for more than a decade.
Decentralised Grade A buildings consist of high-rise office towers similar to those in the CBD. They are located within urbanised areas of Shanghai and are not on industrial land, within industrial development zones or within economic development areas with a specific high-tech orientation; these industrial locations are referred to as Business Parks. The Emergence of Shanghai’s Decentralised Office Market
In mid-2009, the decentralised office market a two-year period of large new supply, in which comprised only 331,000 sqm of space. This new clusters of decentralised space will rapidly small market will grow to nearly 1.8 million emerge around the city. During 2010, the size of sqm by end-2013 (Figure 1), with 14 more new the decentralised market will double (Figure 1). decentralised Grade A projects slated to enter the Beyond 2013, the CBD will be completely built out, market in 2009 and 2010 alone. The completion and most new grade-A space will inevitably be in of four buildings in 1H09 marked the beginning of decentralised areas.
Figure 1: Decentralised Grade A Space is Set to Take Off Figure 2: Decentralised Grade A Supply to Peak in 2010 Total Stock 2006 – 2013 New Supply 2006 – 2013
Total sqm of GFA New Supply (sqm) 2,000,000 800,000
1,500,000 600,000
1,000,000 400,000
200,000 500,000
0 0 2006 2007 2008 2009* 2010* 2011* 2012* 2013* 2006 2007 2008 2009* 2010* 2011* 2012* 2013* Decentralised CBD * Projected * Projected Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Source: Jones Lang LaSalle
The First Decentralised Grade A Market in Mainland China
Shanghai is the first city in mainland China to develop a decentralised GradeA office market. In order for a decentralised market to develop, a well-defined core area must already be established. In Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the office districts are not consolidated. Beijing contains 5 submarkets without one standing out as a CBD, while Guangzhou and Shenzhen both have office clusters but lack real CBDs. Shanghai’s establishment of a core CBD area in 2007 set the stage for a decentralised market to be clearly identifiable.
Other major cities in China have not yet reached a point where it is viable for developers to build Grade A offices in decentralised areas. Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen are still in the process of building out CBD cores in Guomao, Zhujiang New Town, and Futian districts, respectively. These master planned areas are actually all centrally located within each city and are possible because of land availability. With large projects under development within these centralised areas, tenants do not need to look further out of the city. Rental savings are the key driver for tenants considering decentralised buildings. With supply booming as centralised areas continue to build out, CBD rents in Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen remain relatively low, reducing tenant interest in decentralised space.
Indeed, Shanghai will still have substantial new supply enter the CBD over the next five years. Supply levels will be high enough to limit growth in rents in the CBD. However, Shanghai CBD rents are higher than Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen. Meaningful rental savings can be achieved through decentralization in Shanghai. After several years, land constraints will also begin to constrain future growth of office supply in the CBD. This is similar to what drove the formation of a decentralised market in Hong Kong. The Taikoo Shing and Quarry Bay areas of Hong Kong took off in the early 1990s to form a full fledged decentralised market known as Island East. Today this is being followed by another decentralised market emerging in Kowloon East, where significant new Grade A office space will be built over the coming years. Key Areas for Decentralised Grade A Space Most decentralised projects are located between Inner Ring Road and Middle Ring Road, indicated by the red-coloured region in Map 1.
Map 1: Shanghai’s Office Areas Map 2: Shanghai Districts
Core CBD Areas Other CBD Areas Decentralised Areas Suburban Areas Zhabei Puxi Hongkou Putuo Lujiazui Jing’an Huangpu Pudong Changning Luwan Xuhui
Key CBD Districts Districts seeing major growth in decentralised Grade A
Most decentralised Grade A space is being built in Puxi. By 2013, district is ready for the development of its very own Grade A office 83% of decentralised office space will be located there, with the cluster. This is now taking shape in the Changfeng area, only 2 remaining 17% in Pudong (Figure 3). This closely reflects the km north of the well-established Hongqiao office cluster, and in existing population distribution of the city, in which 76% of the the officially designated Zhenru sub-CBD that is now in the early city’s urban population resides in Puxi. Nearly 60% of the CBD’s stages of development. Also near the CBD area are the North Bund office space today is in Puxi, which means that roughly 60% of the and Sichuan Road in Hongkou. Hongkou will account for 21% city’s Grade A tenants are already located in Puxi. The growing of the decentralised market by 2013. Zhabei district, particularly decentralised market in Puxi will act as a natural extension of the the area around the railway station, will contain another 14% of large and mature base of offices already established in the Puxi the decentralised market. The district, which is located only three CBD. Tenants have shown a preference to stay on the same side of metro stops from the CBD, is anchored by the newly launched the river as their existing offices. Even as the CBD market becomes InterContinental Centre. Outlying parts of Changning district will evenly split between Puxi and Pudong over the next few years, form the rest of the decentralised market in Puxi, anchored by the Puxi’s decentralised market will be where a growing amount of new Dawning Centre project that was launched in 2008. Pudong will have Puxi space is built. a smaller but important decentralised market, with an office cluster now taking shape between the Longyang Road metro station and the Putuo district will have the largest share of the decentralised exhibition centre in Huamu. Lastly, the southern tip of Luwan District market by 2013, accounting for 26% of the total (Figure 4). As 1.1 will contain a few decentralised Grade A buildings near the World million Shanghai residents currently call Putuo their home, the Expo site.
Figure 3: Decentralised Grade-A Stock by 2013 Figure 4: Decentralised Grade-A Stock by District in 2013 (Thousand sqm)
137 (8%) 17% Luwan 311 (17%) Pudong Pudong
470 (26%) Putuo 83% 253 (14%) Puxi Changning
251 (14%) 369 (21%) Zhabei Hongkou Infrastructure Development in Shanghai and the World Expo:
Shanghai is rapidly catching up from decades of under- Figure 5: Private Car Ownership in Shanghai investment in infrastructure. The World Expo’s role has been Total registered private cars (thousands) to catalyse urban improvements in the city and provide a 600 firm deadline to bring key projects to completion. It has also served to accelerate additional longer-term projects and 400 compress them into a shorter time frame. Similar to Beijing’s experience with the Olympics, the Shanghai government is 200 aiming for perfection and has mobilised vast resources. In November 2008, the total infrastructure investment committed 0 through 2010 was estimated at RMB 500 billion, with another 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 RMB 150 billion allocated by the Shanghai government in Year response to national stimulus directives. The construction Source: Statistical Bureau; Jones Lang LaSalle Estimates projects themselves will boost employment while leaving a lasting legacy on the city’s capacity for further development. Shanghai’s first wave of infrastructure development in the mid- Figure 6: Metro Ridership in Shanghai 1990s brought with it the first ring road, bridges and tunnels Average daily ridership (millions) across the river, as well as the city’s first metro line. A wave of 6 heavy investment in suburban expressways dominated the next decade, until metro line construction picked up considerably 4 after 2003 to become the dominant area of spending on transportation public works projects. 2 Along with a stated goal of developing Shanghai’s suburbs and satellite cities (a multi-centre city), city planners have 0 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09* 10* 11* 12* two aims: serving the high-density urban area efficiently with Year mass transportation capacity and curtailing the environmental * Projected Source: Statistical Bureau; Jones Lang LaSalle Estimates impact associated with the rapid growth in private vehicles (Figure 5). The metro network will serve nearly 6 million riders per day by 2012 (Figure 6). The expanding network enables new, affordable homes on the far reaches of each line to be connected to the city. It will also stimulate sophisticated forms of real estate around the city’s new hubs – subway stations. Decentralised Grade A offices will be a key part of this change. Advance
Better Accessibility is Driving Growth Demand for decentralised space is not a new The build-out of the metro network leading up phenomenon in Shanghai. What is new is the to the 2010 World Expo is the largest urban practicality of moving into a decentralised office. improvement in Shanghai’s history. The expansion of the metro rail network ahead of the 2010 World Expo is making decentralised offices more convenient, accessible, and The large amount of decentralised projects attractive. Growing from three metro lines in 2005 appearing in Puxi (rather than Pudong) also to eight today, the metro network has already reflects this. Today, the north and west edges enabled decentralised residential developments of Puxi are experiencing massive population to flourish. The same is now happening with the growth as employees live farther away from the decentralised Grade A office market. By May 2010, city centre in more affordable, newly developed the opening date of the World Expo, Shanghai will apartment blocks. Decentralised offices provide have a total of eleven metro lines in operation, an attractive choice for tenants that are aiming to allowing decentralised Grade A offices to have improve talent retention. access to the CBD within 30 minutes or less.
The build-out of the metro network leading up Map 3: Metro Lines to the 2010 World Expo is the largest urban Metro Lines in 2009 improvement in Shanghai’s history. The longer- AdditionalCore CBD Metro Areas Lines in 2010 term plans call for 20 lines by 2020, extending CoreOther CBD CBD Areas Areas across a total of 960 km and securing the future OtherDecentralised CBD Areas Areas of decentralised Grade A space as part of the DecentralisedSuburban Areas Areas urban fabric. Metro Lines 12 and 13 will stand out Suburban Areas as the largest connectors of decentralised offices in the city when they are completed by 2013 (Figure 7). Line 12 will traverse Pudong, the North Bund and the Zhabei railway station, while Line 13 will connect the Changfeng Park area with the railway station in Zhabei. In both cases, these two lines will pass by several hundred thousand square metres of decentralised Grade A office space by 2013. Lines 4 and 10 will not be far behind as around 300,000 sqm of decentralised Figure 7: Decentralised Grade A Space to be Built on Each Metro Line Through 2013 Grade A space will be built along their paths. No. 11 (2010) Most employees in Shanghai use public transport No. 6 (2006) to get to their offices. With better subway No. 3 (2000) accessibility, tenants can consider decentralised No. 2 (2000) No. 7 (2010) office space with less risk of losing their No. 1 (1995) employees. In the past, a move to a decentralised No. 4 (2005) location meant risking the loss of a sizeable No. 10 (2010) portion of staff, who wanted to remain in the No. 12 (2012) CBD which was easily reached via the metro and No. 13 (2013) offered better amenities. Better accessibility going 0 100 200 300 400 500 forward will result in less employee opposition Thousand sqm to decentralisation. In some cases, the average commute time for employees may actually decline. The Emergence of Shanghai’s Decentralised Office Market
The CBD Will Have New Competition Figure 8: Total Grade A Stock by District Decentralised districts will quickly catch up The total Grade A space in several decentralised Sqm districts will catch up with well-established districts 1,200,000 in the CBD (Figure 8). In 2013, Hongkou will 1,000,000 have as much Grade A space as Luwan district 800,000 has today, while Putuo district will have as much 600,000 as Jing’an does today. The amount of Grade A 400,000 space per person in decentralised districts will also 200,000 rise. As most of the purely decentralised districts 0 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09* 10* 11* 12* 13* (e.g. Hongkou or Zhabei) contain large resident Huangpu Luwan Jing’An Xuhui populations, their concentration of Grade A space Changning Zhabei Putuo Hongkou * Projected will remain relatively low compared to downtown Source: Jones Lang LaSalle (Figure 9). Pure decentralised districts such Pudong is not displayed as the total stock is beyond the chart scale. as Zhabei, Hongkou and Putuo will have 0.4 – 0.5 Figure 9: Grade A Stock Per Resident sqm per resident by 2013. Stock will catch up with population in key areas Sqm per person On average, decentralised space is currently 31% 4 cheaper than CBD space, and it will continue 3 to offer a substantial discount for tenants in the years to come. During 2010 and 2011, the current 2 discount will widen to around 50%. Tenants will be 1 able to save up to half of their occupancy costs if they choose to relocate. Decentralised landlords 0 are increasingly prepared to offer longer rent- Huangpu Luwan Jing'An Xuhui Changning Pudong Zhabei Putuo Hongkou free periods and fit-out allowances to attract the Stock per person 2013 Stock per person 2008 right tenants. Cost-sensitive occupiers will also Source: Statistical Bureau; Jones Lang LaSalle recognise that today’s relatively low CBD rents Figure 10: Rental Projection: CBD vs. Decentralised will not persist forever and view decentralised A substantial discount will persist offices as a solid long-term strategy. Decentralised RMB/sqm/day 10 office space will continue to trade at a discount to the CBD for the foreseeable future, even if the 8 discount narrows over time. The rental cycles of 6 decentralised office and the CBD are expected to move in synchrony with a slight time lag. 4 A recovery in decentralised rents will likely to lag the CBD by at least several months. In future 2 2007 2008 2009* 2010* 2011* rental cycles, decentralised rents will likely be the CBD Decentralised first to be discounted, and the last to recover. * Projected Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Advance
CBD Tenants Drive Decentralised Office The patterns seen in the decentralised market Demand thus far are a foreshadowing of the future. The early stages of the decentralised market’s Mature markets around the world show clear development already showed clear demand consistency among CBD Grade A tenants, which patterns. Figure 11 shows where today’s are predominantly in the financial, legal and decentralised Grade A tenants originally moved professional services industries. Decentralised from, weighted according to tenant size. Over Grade A space is the most common choice for one-half (54%) of occupancy in decentralised tenants in the manufacturing, technology and Grade A buildings consists of former CBD tenants. other industries that do not require a high-profile Another 28% of occupancy consists of tenants office location. Shanghai is now moving in this that upgraded from lower-quality non-CBD direction. Grade A buildings in Shanghai’s CBD buildings. The remaining 18% consist of new still contain tenants that would traditionally choose set-ups without a previous location in Shanghai. decentralised space in mature markets. Going From another perspective, 46% of tenants in forward, these tenants will be a major source of today’s decentralised Grade A market upgraded demand for space in new decentralised Grade A from Grade B or lower-quality offices. To date, an buildings. Large-sized tenants requiring over 8,000 estimated 110,000 sqm of take-up in decentralised sqm will naturally consider suburban business buildings was driven by former CBD tenants. Of parks, especially tenants which have an R&D that total, 74,000 sqm was driven by former CBD function. Medium sized tenants in the range of Grade A tenants. 3,000 to 8,000 sqm are more inclined to choose office towers that comprise Shanghai’s growing Figure 11: Where Decentralised Grade A Tenants Moved From According to tenant size totals (sqm) decentralised Grade A market. Larger tenants, even up to 25,000 sqm, who do not want to be in 37,232 (18%) a suburban corporate campus, may also consider CBD Grade B decentralised Grade A buildings.
37,449 (18%) Why Tenants Consider Decentralised New Setup 74,234 (36%) Grade A CBD Grade A Many of the reasons tenants consider decentralised grade A space are compelling.
59,142 (28%) As tenants add employees and grow their Decentralised Grade B presence in Shanghai, many of them rapidly (or below) outgrow their office space in the CBD. It is not uncommon for tenants to grow headcount by 25% or more per year. The rapid growth in CBD rents between 2001 and 2008 put many tenants in a Decentralised Grade A space is the most difficult financial situation. Higher rents and larger space requirements meant that it was no longer common choice for tenants in the manufacturing, economical for tenants to acquire larger space in technology and other industries that do not the CBD. Faced with steep rent increases upon require a high-profile office location. the renewal of their CBD leases, these tenants began to look at other options. Plans for continued growth meant that these tenants could not afford to stay in the CBD. This triggered the first wave of decentralisation into business parks on the city’s edge starting in 2005. Large occupiers of over 8,000 sqm of space, primarily in high-tech industries, took advantage of this opportunity. The Emergence of Shanghai’s Decentralised Office Market
Complete relocation Medium-sized tenants were left with three The second group of tenants that benefit from options: move a long distance to a business park, decentralised Grade A space are those that can move to a Grade B building or stay put and pay relocate their entire office to a less-expensive location. Cheaper space has made office more for the same space. consolidation easier and more attractive.
Tenants in the manufacturing and logistics Business parks were built with large occupiers industries that have medium-range space in mind, providing campus-style settings and requirements are especially well suited to generous expansion space. The attractiveness this option. of business parks was, and continues to be, sector specific, with each business park location Multi-step decentralisation promoting itself through a different theme such Aside from a front-office/back-office split or a as telecommunications, pharmaceutical and life complete relocation, a growing number of tenants sciences, semiconductors, multimedia, automotive look at decentralisation as a multi-step process. and others. However, the specific industrial Decentralisation starts with a single business unit, orientation of business parks is less appealing to while the majority (i.e. 70% or more) of employees tenants in other industries. Medium-sized tenants continue to work in the original location. If the were left with three options: move a long distance new office is deemed successful – in terms to a business park, move to a Grade B building or of convenience, facilities, amenities, property stay put and pay more for the same space. management and staff retention – the rest of the With new decentralised Grade A options entering business follows suit and moves out of the CBD. the scene, CBD tenants can now consider a By starting with a small portion of the tenant’s total growing number of high-quality buildings, which fill space, risks are lower and the tenant is able to the market gap between business parks and the postpone its commitment to full decentralisation. city centre. This is attractive to three major groups In the end, however, decentralisation is a one-way of tenants: process. Tenants that moved out of the CBD are unlikely to return. Split-Office The first group are tenants which have a back-office function that does not need to be in a prime location. This includes non-client-facing functions such as document processing and call centres. A front-office/back-office split allows these companies to maintain two offices. Several decentralised areas are located very close to the CBD and provide convenient travel between the two areas (Table 1).
Table 1: Front-Office/Back-Office Location Pairs CBD Grade A Cluster Decentralised Grade A Cluster Distance (km) Jing’An/West Nanjing Road Zhabei Railway Station 2 Hongqiao Changfeng Park Area 2 Lujiazui/Century Avenue Huamu 3 10 Advance
Office clusters for the future development. At present, Shanghai’s decentralised The most successful decentralised office market is still in its early days. Through the next properties in Shanghai will be those located within ten years, the market will rapidly grow and mature. clusters of new developments that are backed Success stories such as the Daning Life Hub by a co-ordinated government plan. A total of 87% (Zhabei), Waterfront Place (Putuo), and others, of the decentralised space to be built through show the potential the market holds for the future. 2013 will be located within project clusters. What has become clear is that the decentralised Containing multiple office towers, retail centres, office market is here to stay, and tenants will hotels and residential units, development clusters be able to choose from a rapidly growing range have diversified uses and offer complete urban of high quality decentralised buildings. The environments for companies and their employees. decentralised Grade A market is now ready to In these coordinated plans, amenities for office emerge in full force as Shanghai’s transportation tenants are launched before the office buildings network grows and integrates all areas of the city themselves Tenants can then enjoy better and conveniently and efficiently. Decentralised districts more convenient access to amenities and green can look forward to a growing tax base. As CBD space. Decentralised projects which are not part of tenants reach a key decision point for their future development clusters will be relatively isolated and office location, decentralised areas will see a generally surrounded by residential flats. While growing flow of tenants moving from the CBD. As isolated properties will form an important part part of Shanghai’s office evolution, decentralised of the market, they will face difficult competition Grade A space takes the city’s real estate market from buildings located in diversified clusters of one step further toward maturity.
Containing multiple office towers, retail centres, hotels and residential units, development clusters have diversified uses and offer complete urban environments for companies and their employees.
Table 2: Largest Decentralised Grade A Clusters Area Name Office GFA Total at End-2013 (sqm) Changfeng Park Area 234,000 Zhabei Railway Station Area 213,266 Sichuan Road 196,321 North Bund 172,670 Huamu 153,405 Gubei 153,452 Anthony Couse International Director, Managing Director - Shanghai Head of Commercial Business - Shanghai [email protected] +86 21 6133 5555 Anthony Couse is managing director of Jones Lang LaSalle’s Shanghai Office. In addition, he heads the Commercial Business for Shanghai. Anthony has been instrumental in building the firm’s prominent Commercial presence throughout Asia. His expertise covers marketing consultancy of major commercial developments, portfolio leasing, general market agency and tenant representation. He has worked on major projects in Hong Kong including Three Pacific Place, Chater House, Two ifc, Cheung Kong Centre, Times Square and Swire Properties’ Island East portfolio. In Shanghai, recent projects include Park Place, ifc and Wheelock.
Alan Li National Director, Head of Pudong Markets - Shanghai [email protected] +86 21 6133 5799 Alan Li is responsible for advisory and leasing services in the Shanghai Pudong Grade A office market. He plays an important role in the Jones Lang LaSalle Commercial Leasing team in identifying and handling new opportunities and multinational company relocations and transactions within the market. Since 2000, he has managed major leases and acquisitions for major national and international tenants and landlords. Alan joined Jones Lang LaSalle in 2003 and was assigned as Head of Pudong Commercial Business in March 2007. Besides, he has also been providing consultancy and leasing advice on behalf of developers including Citigroup Tower and One Lujiazui.
Steven McCord Senior Manager, Research - Shanghai [email protected] +86 21 6133 5457 Steven McCord is responsible for uncovering key trends in the Shanghai market. He develops concise, high-value perspectives on market fundamentals, competition and emerging areas, based on objective market research and analysis. Steven joined Jones Lang LaSalle in 2006 and manages the production of regular publications and coverage of the Shanghai commercial real estate market. Prior to joining the real estate industry, he worked in market research, analysis and market strategy consulting to support diversified industries, including scientific, food and biotechnology.
Daniel Yao Manager, Research - Shanghai [email protected] +86 21 6133 5456 Daniel Yao is responsible for tracking and writing Jones Lang LaSalle’s research publications specializing on Shanghai office sector. He supports and coordinates fee consultancy projects. He is also responsible for coordinating research reports in main Tier II cities in Yangtze Delta Region, covering office, retail and residential sectors. Daniel joined Jones Lang LaSalle’s Research team in 2007. He has experience in research publication, consultancy studies and data base establishment for several Tier II cities. He has participated in project feasibility studies, property market studies. Jones Lang LaSalle offices
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