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Briefing Office Sector November 2017

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Savills World Research Shanghai Briefing Office sector November 2017 Image: Vantone Center, HTH SUMMARY In recent quarters, more landlords are leasing out space in their traditional office projects to co-working brands, or entering the co-working market directly. Two new Grade A office projects Core market rents remained flat on were launched onto the core market an index basis at RMB8.9 per sq m per in Q3/2017, adding 350,000 sq m of day, up 1.8% YoY. “The addition of new projects supply and increasing core office stock by 4.5% to 8.1 million sq m. Two new projects were launched further pushed up vacancy rates onto the decentralised market in Demand remained strong in the Q3/2017, bringing 139,300 sq m of new in Q3/2017, while dragging down third quarter, with net take-up in the core supply and pushing total stock up to 3.2 market totalling nearly 165,200 sq m million sq m. average rents.” James Macdonald, (including self-use). New supply pushed vacancy rates, Savills Research New supply pushed up vacancy in decentralised areas, up a further rates in core areas by 1.8 percentage 4.2 ppts in Q3/2017 to 37.6%, while points (ppts) quarter-on-quarter (QoQ), rents remained flat on an index basis to 12.5%, up 3.4 ppts year-on-year averaging RMB5.8 per sq m per day. (YoY). The strong growth in Shanghai’s tertiary industry will continue to underpin strong demand for office spaces. savills.com.cn/research 01 Briefing |Shanghai office sector November 2017 Market News The project is located on Madang Jointly developed by CITIC Pacific Shanghai Rolled Out Measures to Road and Jianguo Road, with a and China State Shipbuilding Attract International R&D Centres planned above-ground GFA of Corporation (CSSC), the Harbour Shanghai released 16 measures approximate 25,000 sq m (20,000 City Phase 2 comprises of two office in October 2017 to attract more sq m office and 5,000 sq m retail). towers, with one tower (approx. international research and Construction had not yet begun at 150,000 sq m) bought and self- development (R&D) centres into the end of Q3/2017. used by Industrial and Commercial the city, as an effort to develop Bank of China (ICBC), and the the city into a global technological Leasing Market other tower (approx. 110,000 sq m) innovation hub by 2030. Core Market – Supply, Take-up & bought by China Life Insurance as its Vacancy headquarter. Large-scale international R&D The city’s core office market received centres will be given the same two Grade A projects in Q3/2017 – Core market absorption totalled privileges as regional headquarters Harbour City Phase 2 in Lujiazui and 165,200 sq m. This mostly came from of multinational companies (MNC), China Overseas International Centre the 106,200 sq m take-up in prime which means the R&D centres in South Huangpu – totalling 350,000 Pudong, where the ICBC self-use will receive favourable policies sq m of new supply. project was handed over. Excluding and financial support from the local government. New measures GRAPH 1 also include preferential policies, Grade A Office Core Market Supply, Take-up & easier access to services and less STV EN processing time for work permits Vacancy, 2000-Q3/2017 for international employees of R&D Supply (LHS) Take-up (LHS) Vacancy (RHS) centres. 1.2 18% 17Q3 vacancy rate: 12.5% These measures hope to attract 1.0 15% more international-funded R&Ds to enter and expand in Shanghai, generating new occupier demand for 0.8 12% the city’s office market. 0.6 9% Henderson Joined CIFI in million sq m Developing the Madang Road 0.4 6% Project CIFI Holdings will jointly develop a commercial project in Huangpu with 0.2 3% Henderson Land Development Co., with a 50%-50% stake. 0.0 0% 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17Q3 Source: Shanghai Statistics Bureau, Savills Research Page 1 TABLE 1 Grade A office core supply, Q3/2017 Project District Business district Office GFA (sq m) Developer Habour City, Ph2 Pudong Lujiazui 260,000 Citic Pacific, CSSC China Overseas International Huangpu South Huangpu 90,000 China Overseas Centre Source: Savills Research TABLE 2 Grade A office core market performance, Q3/2017 Supply (sq m) Take-up (sq m) Vacancy Stock (sq m) Pudong 260,000 145,600 8.7% 3,847,400 Puxi 90,000 19,600 15.9% 4,260,700 All 350,000 165,200 12.5% 8,108,100 Source: Savills Research 02 Briefing |Shanghai office sector November 2017 GRAPH 2 the new project, prime Pudong and Grade A Office Core Market Rental Indices, prime Puxi both witnessed negative Q1/1999-Q3/2017 take-ups, as many tenants relocated to non-prime or decentralised areas All Puxi prime Pudong prime Puxi non-prime Pudong non-prime due to affordable rents and newly- 220 built buildings. 200 Q2/2010–Q3/2017 The addition of new supply increased 37.8% increase from trough 180 the core market vacancy rate by 1.8 ppts in Q3/2017 to 12.5%. 160 Non-prime Pudong was the only submarket that recorded a decrease 140 in vacancy rates, down 2.7 ppts to 120 8.5% in Q3/2017. Q2 Q2 / 1999 = 100 Q3/2008–Q2/2010 36.8% decrease from peak 100 Core Market – Rent Core office rents remained flat on 80 an index basis in Q3/2017, at an average of RMB8.9 per sq m per day, 60 up 1.8% YoY. Nevertheless, average rents were down in absolute terms Source: Savills Research from RMB9.0 per sq m per day in Q2/2017, with projects launched in the last six months, in non-prime GRAPH 3 areas, coming to market at below Rent and Vacancy by Business District, Q2/2017 vs. average rates to facilitate lease up. Q3/2017 RV CBD EN Prime Pudong and Puxi rents Q2/17 rent (LHS) Q3/17 rent (LHS) averaged RMB11.4 and RMB10.1 Q2/17 vacancy (RHS) Q3/17 vacancy (RHS) 12 30% per sq m per day in Q3/2017, while 11.4 11.4 non-prime Pudong and Puxi rents averaged RMB8.1 and RMB7.4 per 10 10.3 10.3 25% 9.9 9.9 sq m per day during the same period. 8 20% 8.1 8.1 8.1 7.8 7.9 8.0 All submarkets saw a similar flat rent 7.3 7.3 with the exception being Xujiahui, 6 6.4 6.4 15% due to the addition of new high- end stock. Xujiahui CBD office 4 10% RMB psqm per day rents increased in absolute value to RMB8.1 per sq m per day in 2 5% Q3/2017, from RMB7.8 per sq m per day in Q2/2017. This was as the 0 0% Nanjing Rd Huaihai Rd Lujiazui Old Xujiahui Hongqiao Zhuyuan North result of the rental consideration of (W) (M) Huangpu Station Sun Hung Kai’s ITC Phase 1 (G1), Prime areas Non-prime areas which launched six months ago, rather than any rental increases in the Source: Savills Research Page 1 CBD. TABLE 3 Notable leasing transactions, Q3/2017 Tenant Project District Business district Area leases (sq m) Wework China Overseas Int’l Centre Huangpu South Huangpu 27,000 M+W Group Capital Square Jing’an North Station 3,500 China Dragon Securities Century Link Pudong Zhuyuan 2,300 Lujiazui Century Financial Higgses Pudong Zhuyuan 1,600 Plaza Hana Bank Ocean Towers Huangpu Old Huangpu 1,000 Source: Savills Research savills.com.cn/research 03 Briefing |Shanghai office sector November 2017 Decentralised Market sq m, a 44% expansion from 12 over projects in recent quarters, the The decentralised market continued months ago. market needs more time to absorb to see more new office space in the huge new supply. Q3/2017. Two new projects were In response to the new projects, launched into the market, adding the average decentralised market Sales Market 139,300 sq m of supply. As a vacancy rate increased by 4.2 En-bloc consequence, decentralised office ppts in the third quarter to 37.6%, The en-bloc office investment market stock was pushed up to 3.2 million the highest level over the last two saw five key deals concluded in years. Similar to the core market, Q3/2017, for a total consideration of GRAPH 4 decentralised office rents remained RMB14.4 billion, up 7% QoQ. Rent and Vacancy by Submarket, unchanged on an index basis, in Q3, to an average of RMB5.8 per sq When the capital value for office Q2/2017 vs. Q3/2017 m per day, which was still down in properties remain at a high-level, Q2/17 rent (LHS) Q3/17 rent (LHS) absolute terms, dragged by projects property owners are taking the Q2/17 vacancy (RHS) Q3/17 vacancy (RHS) 12 42% launched in the last six months. opportunity to reap value from their mature investment properties and 10 35% The development of the city’s realise returns. In this quarter, Shui decentralised office market continues On Land sold 49% stake in KIC 8 28% to shift towards several master- properties and YPU properties, after 6 21% planned business areas, including the developing and managing the KIC Hongqiao Transportation Hub (HTH), project for over a decade. Current RMB RMB per per sqm day 4 14% Qiantan and Expo business areas, companies in KIC include IBM, and is expected to extend to areas, Oracle and Kaspersky.
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