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Advancing Climate Change Adaptation Advancing Climate Change Adaptation by Thea L Dickinson A thesis submitted in conformity with the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Environmental Science Department of Physical and Environmental Sciences University of Toronto © Copyright by Thea L Dickinson 2019 Advancing Climate Change Adaptation Thea L Dickinson Doctor of Philosophy in Environmental Science Department of Physical and Environmental Sciences University of Toronto 2019 Abstract The impacts of climate change are vast and consequential. The years 2012 to 2016, using conservative estimates, revealed more than 1500 climate-related disaster events displacing over 3.2 million people and causing USD$450 billion in financial losses. Recent studies confirm that extreme weather events and the failure of climate change mitigation and adaptation are the leading risks to global stability. Climate change adaptation is advancing differently in nations across the world. Using pragmatism as a theoretical framework and applying a mixed methods approach, this dissertation seeks to identify determinants of adaptation. Grounded theory analysis of 403 national documents from 192 parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change identified 35 themes of climate change adaptation. A mixed methods data transformation model was applied to study the influence of several relatively stable parameters on the level of climate change adaptation. Nineteen variables were suitable for Principal Component Analysis, which further categorized 15 as determinants. The top 5 determinants were identified using between groups multivariate analysis. The influence of geopolitical variables on climate change adaptation were analyzed, these included: GDP per capita, economic classification, system of government, level of ii democracy, land type, region, level of conflict, and refugees. The research resulted in several significant and unexpected findings. Countries with the highest levels of adaptation appear to have many key commonalities. This dissertation seeks to identify ways in which we can collectively advance climate change adaptation. iii Acknowledgments It is with deep gratitude I thank the many individuals who made this journey possible. The completion of a PhD is not done in isolation. Thank you to William Gough, doctoral supervisor, for his guidance navigating this challenging terrain. Ian Burton for his continued mentorship and unwavering support. All the members of my doctoral committee, past and present, George Arhonditsis, Leonard Tsuji, Tanzina Mohsin, your advice and reviews refined and strengthened my thinking. I am eternally grateful for the patience each member of my supervisory committee granted me over the years. The Climate Change Adaptation community who unknowingly inspired me to pursue a PhD. Johanna Wandel for the stimulating and thought-provoking external review. The generous financial support from Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC). Joanne Sulman for endless draft reviews, ceaseless motivation and encouragement; this wouldn’t have been possible without your support. To all my family and friends providing me with understanding while this continually stole my attention away from all of you. To those who left us along the way: Sara McColl who remembered where I last left off better than I did; and my father, Dr. Gordon Dickinson, you can call me Dr. Dickinson now. iv Table of Contents Contents Acknowledgments ...................................................................................................................... iv Table of Contents ........................................................................................................................ v List of Tables ............................................................................................................................ xii List of Figures ........................................................................................................................... xv List of Appendices ....................................................................................................................xvii Chapter 1 Introduction and Methodological Summary ................................................................. 1 Failure to Adapt ......................................................................................................................1 1.1 Climate Change Adaptation .............................................................................................2 1.2 Observations and Research Question ............................................................................. 4 1.2.1 Challenges ...........................................................................................................5 1.3 Summary of Preliminary Methodology & Analysis ............................................................ 5 1.3.1 Level of Vulnerability (Climate Risk) (Index-2) ...................................................... 6 1.3.2 Level of Climate Change Adaptation (Index-1) ................................................... 13 1.4 Summary Table of all Variables ..................................................................................... 14 1.5 Redefining Adaptation ................................................................................................... 18 1.6 References ....................................................................................................................19 Chapter 2 The Need for Adaptation ........................................................................................... 20 Are we there yet? ................................................................................................................. 20 2.1 Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference ......................................................................... 21 2.2 A Note on the Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5oC............................................ 21 2.3 The Ultimate Objective .................................................................................................. 22 2.4 Two Degrees: Science versus Political Narrative ........................................................... 28 v 2.5 Climate Change Detection and Attribution: Impacts from below 1oC ........................ 30 2.6 Response to Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference: Mitigation and Adaptation ........... 35 2.6.1 Mitigation: Misunderstanding and limitations ...................................................... 35 2.7 References .................................................................................................................... 36 Chapter 3 Contemporary Climate Change Adaptation: A Brief Review ..................................... 41 Elements of Contemporary Climate Change Adaptation ....................................................... 41 3.1 Current Definition of Climate Change Adaptation .......................................................... 42 3.2 Selection of previous definitions and typologies ............................................................. 42 3.3 Climate Change Adaptation in the 1992 UNFCCC ........................................................ 45 3.3.1 Climate Change Adaptation in Peer Reviewed Literature ................................... 51 3.4 Climate Finance for Climate Change Adaptation ........................................................... 54 3.5 Damages from Climate-Related Events ......................................................................... 54 3.6 Costing Climate Change Adaptation .............................................................................. 55 3.7 Funding Climate Change Adaptation ............................................................................. 58 3.8 References .................................................................................................................... 59 Chapter 4 Theoretical Framework ............................................................................................. 68 Introduction ..........................................................................................................................68 4.1 The Philosophical Complexity of Climate Change ......................................................... 70 4.2 Pragmatism: The Selection of a Paradigm ..................................................................... 72 4.2.1 Statement of Research and Philosophical Positionality .................................. 74 4.3 Mixed Methods from a Climate Change Adaptation Perspective.................................... 76 4.3.1 Approaches to Mixed Methods Research ........................................................... 78 4.3.2 Mixed Methods Model Design ............................................................................ 80 4.4 Mixed Methods Approaches used in this Dissertation .................................................... 82 4.5 Grounded Theory .......................................................................................................... 82 4.5.1 Separating Content Analysis from Grounded Theory ......................................... 82 vi 4.5.2 Content Analysis .......................................................................................... 82 4.6 Grounded Theory .......................................................................................................... 84 4.6.1 Theoretical Sampling and Saturation ................................................................. 86 4.7 Debates in Grounded Theory:
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