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GCC Automobile Industry | December 7, 2016 Page | 1 GCC Automobile Industry | December 7, 2016 Page | 1 Alpen Capital was awarded the “Best Research House” at the Banker Middle East Industry Awards 2011, 2013, and 2014 GCC Automobile Industry | December 7, 2016 Page | 2 Table of Contents 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................... 10 1.1 Scope of the Report ............................................................................................................... 10 1.2 Industry Outlook ..................................................................................................................... 10 1.3 Key Growth Drivers ................................................................................................................ 10 1.4 Key Challenges ...................................................................................................................... 11 1.5 Key Trends ............................................................................................................................ 11 2. THE GCC AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY OVERVIEW .......................................................... 12 2.1 Automobile Demand in the GCC ............................................................................................. 12 2.2 Supply is Predominantly Import Driven ................................................................................... 21 3. THE GCC AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY OUTLOOK ............................................................ 25 3.1 Forecasting Methodology ....................................................................................................... 25 3.2 The GCC Automobile Industry Forecast ................................................................................. 25 3.3 Country-wise Market Size Forecast ........................................................................................ 27 4. GROWTH DRIVERS ......................................................................................................... 32 5. CHALLENGES ................................................................................................................. 38 6. TRENDS ........................................................................................................................... 42 7. MERGER AND ACQUISITION (M&A) ACTIVITIES .......................................................... 47 COUNTRY PROFILES...................................................................................................................... 48 COMPANY PROFILES ..................................................................................................................... 55 GCC Automobile Industry | December 7, 2016 Page | 3 Glossary Vehicles in use: Includes all types of registered vehicles on the road. Passenger cars: Motor vehicles, excluding motor cycles, intended for the carriage of passengers and structured to seat not over nine persons (including the driver). Such vehicles also include taxis, hired cars, and pick-ups or micro cars. Commercial vehicles: Includes light commercial vehicles, heavy trucks, coaches, and buses. New Vehicle Sales: Number of passenger cars and commercial vehicles sold / registered during a given period. Motorization rate: Indicates the number of vehicles per 1,000 inhabitants. A high motorization rate shows high level of economic development and quality of life, while on the other hand increasing number of cars also implies burden on the environment in terms of carbon emissions. Re-exports: Export of imported goods to another country, either in the same condition or after undergoing further processing / manufacture. Grey imports: New or used vehicles imported legally from another country via channels other than the authorized distributors. Vehicles going off the road: Old vehicles that are scrapped after a certain period of time due to wear and tear or as per country specific regulation. GCC Automobile Industry | December 7, 2016 Page | 4 ―The UAE auto market is a continually evolving market and our challenge is to react quickly to market demand, legislation, customer expectations etc. in a socially and financially responsible way. From a legislative viewpoint we are seeing the impact of CAFÉ standards across the GCC, including in those markets that have not implemented these standards, the impending arrival of VAT, probably one year earlier in the UAE than the rest of the GCC, and growing ―consumer protection‖ regulations. The dealers’ role is to work with the relevant authorities to ensure they comply with the rules and maintain customer satisfaction.‖ Graham Turner Chief Executive Officer Al Ghandi Auto Group, UAE ―The short term scenario for the sector looks challenging. Our guesstimate is that GCC markets are down between 30% & 40% for 2016 YTD September. Low oil prices, regional conflicts and relatively higher cost of financing compared to advanced economies are some reasons for the slowdown. Global outlook too is subdued and GCC is not insulated from the spillover effects from China, Brexit, etc. all of which affects the market sentiments and negatively impacts consumption. Short term would be to do with corrections, re-balancing and diversification with focus on non-oil sector of the economy to yield sustainable growth in medium to long term. There is excess inventory consequently supply far exceeds demand, hence retail prices are under pressure that is seriously hurting margins and operational profitability. One is likely to see this trend continue for most of 2017. We expect recovery to start by Q4 2017, by which time supply and demand are more or less in balance, provided there are no unforeseen shocks and oil prices stabilize at an acceptable level and are less prone to fluctuations. Introduction of VAT and its impact is still not clearly known, hence that too needs to be considered. Another vital element is the cash flow or liquidity in the economy. SME segment has been affected and repayment of term loans are disturbed which has given rise to disruptions in the cash flow which eventually affects consumption. As stated above, ideally, demand should lead supply and this would happen once the excess inventory is cleared. Therefore, factors that will enable clearance of excess inventory will aid growth. From a macro- economic perspective, progressively over the medium to long term one would expect higher levels of capital investment or public spending that would boost economic growth downstream leading to higher levels of employment, income and spending. In the short term, measures that will enable liquidation of excess inventory would be the key. Hence, tactical support from manufacturers to withstand transaction price pressures is key. Alongside availability of competitive bank finance to end users would be helpful.‖ K. Rajaram Chief Executive officer Al Nabooda Automobiles LLC, UAE GCC Automobile Industry | December 7, 2016 Page | 5 ―During 2016 global and regional economic cues had an impact on automobile sales, however the overall market is already showing a positive sentiment, with improving customer satisfaction and consolidating market share being the focus of many business activities. This is expected to increase further as we move into 2017. Together with the build-up to Expo 2020 the demand for vehicles, particularly in the commercial segment, is likely to gain greater momentum The automobile sector is not isolated from the overall economic cycles, which is evident from the number of attractive and innovative sales offers available in the market; this is strengthening consumer optimism and business activity. Recent trends in the automotive sector include moving towards greener technologies, driverless cars and technological innovations in powering cars. The UAE has always been in the forefront of adopting new technologies and we expect this to continue in the year ahead.‖ Ashok Khanna Chief Executive Officer Al Tayer Motors, UAE ―While there has been a slowdown in vehicle sales this year in the UAE, we observed that the drop in the domestic automotive market in UAE has not been as dramatic as we had previously expected. The domestic automotive demand in the UAE is expected to pick up marginally as we near the end of this year, and even though we may not match last year’s figure of 419,000 units sold, if this demand holds up we expect the UAE automotive market to end at approximately 320,000 units sold, which is almost what the sector witnessed in 2013. Looking ahead, growth is expected in 2017 as the industry is predicted to perform better than the current year. From January to September 2016, the GCC automotive market witnessed a 20% drop. However, when it comes to the companies operating in the automotive market in the UAE you will notice a variation in the impact of the market situation on their businesses; while 70% were negatively impacted by the drop in the market, 20% saw minimal effect and the remaining 10% were not affected. Despite the overall slowdown in sales of vehicles in UAE this year, the impact on the premium automotive segment has been much less when compared to the overall Total Industry Volume (TIV) drop. The UAE continues to be the leading luxury market in the GCC and the demand is expected to hold up through the rest of 2016, accounting for approximately 55,000 units by the end of the year. Another point to note here is the diversification of the luxury model segment. In prior years, luxury vehicles were available only in the high-end vehicles segment and the SUV segment.
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