The Future of Automobiles and Automobile Insurance: Separating Scientific Fact from Fiction Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar Austin, TX September 18, 2019 Matt Moore - Senior VP iihs.org IIHS is an independent, nonprofit scientific and educational organization dedicated to reducing the losses — deaths, injuries and property damage — from crashes on the nation’s roads. HLDI shares this mission by analyzing insurance data representing human and economic losses from crashes and other events related to vehicle ownership. Both organizations are wholly supported by auto insurers. IIHS and HLDI member groups AAA Carolinas Florida Farm Bureau Insurance Companies NJM Insurance Group Swiss Reinsurance Company Ltd Acceptance Insurance Frankenmuth Insurance Nodak Insurance Company Texas Farm Bureau Insurance Alfa Insurance Gainsco Insurance The Norfolk & Dedham Group® The Travelers Companies, Inc. Allstate Insurance Group GEICO Corporation North Carolina Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance United Educators American Agricultural Insurance Company The General Insurance Company USAA American Family Insurance Georgia Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company North Star Mutual Insurance Company Utica National Insurance Group American National Goodville Mutual Casualty Company Northern Neck Insurance Company Virginia Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Ameriprise Auto & Home Grange Insurance NYCM Insurance West Bend Mutual Insurance Company Amica Mutual Insurance Company Grinnell Mutual Ohio Mutual Insurance Group Western National Insurance Group Auto Club Enterprises Hallmark Financial Services, Inc. Oregon Mutual Insurance Company Westfield Auto Club Group The Hanover Insurance Group Pekin Insurance Auto-Owners Insurance The Hartford PEMCO Insurance BITCO Insurance Companies Haulers Insurance Company, Inc. Plymouth Rock Assurance California Casualty Horace Mann Insurance Companies Progressive Insurance Celina Insurance Group Imperial Fire & Casualty Insurance Company PURE Insurance Funding Associations Central States Health & Life Co. of Omaha and Indiana Farm Bureau Insurance Qualitas Insurance Company American Property Casualty Insurance Association Affiliates Indiana Farmers Insurance Redpoint County Mutual Insurance Company National Association of Mutual Insurance CHUBB Infinity Property & Casualty The Responsive Auto Insurance Company Companies Colorado Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company Kemper Corporation Rider Insurance Commonwealth Casualty Company Kentucky Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Rockingham Insurance Concord Group Insurance Companies Companies Root Insurance Co COUNTRY Financial La Capitale General Insurance RSA Canada CSAA Insurance Group Liberty Mutual Insurance Safe Auto Insurance Company Desjardins Insurance Louisiana Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Safeco Insurance DTRIC Insurance Company Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance Company ECM Insurance Group The Main Street America Group SECURA Insurance Elephant Insurance Company MAPFRE Insurance Group Selective Insurance Company of America EMC Insurance Group Mercury Insurance Group Sentry Insurance Erie Insurance Group MetLife Shelter Insurance® Esurance Mississippi Farm Bureau Casualty Insurance Sompo International Farm Bureau Financial Services Company South Carolina Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Farm Bureau Insurance Company of Michigan MMG Insurance Company® Farm Bureau Insurance of Tennessee Munich Reinsurance America, Inc. Southern Farm Bureau Casualty Insurance Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company of Idaho Mutual Benefit Group® Company Farmers Insurance Group Mutual of Enumclaw Insurance Company State Farm Insurance Companies Farmers Mutual of Nebraska Nationwide Stillwater Insurance Group Haddon matrix Recognizing opportunities to make a difference pre-crash during crash after crash graduated licensing safety belts medical bracelets people impaired driving laws helmets general health automated enforcement crash avoidance technology airbags automatic collision notification vehicles crashworthiness fuel system integrity truck underride guards roundabouts roadside barriers emergency medical services environment rumble strips breakaway poles long-term rehabilitation HLDI data providers insure approximately 85% share of PPA 21st Century Insurance Kemper Preferred Alfa Alliance Insurance Corporation Kentucky Farm Bureau Insurance Allstate Insurance Group Liberty Mutual Insurance Company American Family Mutual Insurance MetLife Auto and Home American National Family of Companies National General Amica Mutual Insurance Company Nationwide Auto Club Group New Jersey Manufacturers Insurance Group Automobile Insurers Bureau of Massachusetts PEMCO Insurance Chubb & Son Plymouth Rock Assurance COUNTRY Financial Progressive Corporation CSAA Insurance Group Rockingham Group Erie Insurance Group Safeco Insurance Companies Esurance SECURA Insurance Farm Bureau Financial Services Sentry Insurance Farmers Insurance Group of Companies State Farm Insurance Companies Florida Farm Bureau Insurance Companies Tennessee Farmers Mutual Insurance Company Foremost Texas Farm Bureau GEICO Corporation The Travelers Companies Hanover Insurance Group USAA The Hartford Evaluations of Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) Vehicles with forward collision warning 2000 2018 Mercedes-Benz S Class Chevrolet Spark $73,095 $18,015 HLDI collision avoidance analysis The HLDI database includes data from companies that represent about 85% of private passenger auto insurance in the U.S. On a monthly basis, HLDI processes 320 million insurance data transactions The insurance data includes the garaging zip code and rated driver demographics Manufacturers shared with us 17 digit VINs and information about collision avoidance systems fitted to those vehicles Our collision avoidance analysis used the manufacturer supplied feature data along with our geographic and demographic data Large amount of timely data Limited information on crash circumstances Effect of crash avoidance systems on claim frequency Results pooled across automakers 40% Collision Property damage liability Bodily injury liability MedPay PIP 20% 0% -20% -40% forward front curve-adaptive lane departure blind spot parking rear rear collision autobrake headlights warning warning sensors camera autobrake warning Effect of crash avoidance systems on claim frequency Results pooled across automakers 40% Collision Property damage liability Bodily injury liability MedPay PIP 20% 0% -20% -40% forward front curve-adaptive lane departure blind spot parking rear rear collision autobrake headlights warning warning sensors camera autobrake warning Effect of crash avoidance systems on claim frequency Results pooled across automakers 40% Collision Property damage liability Bodily injury liability MedPay PIP 20% 0% -20% -40% forward front curve-adaptive lane departure blind spot parking rear rear collision autobrake headlights warning warning sensors camera autobrake warning Effect of crash avoidance systems on claim frequency Results pooled across automakers 40% Collision Property damage liability Bodily injury liability MedPay PIP 20% 0% -20% -40% forward front curve-adaptive lane departure blind spot parking rear rear collision autobrake headlights warning warning sensors camera autobrake warning Effect of crash avoidance systems on claim frequency Results pooled across automakers 40% Collision Property damage liability Bodily injury liability MedPay PIP 20% 0% -20% -40% forward front curve-adaptive lane departure blind spot parking rear rear collision autobrake headlights warning warning sensors camera autobrake warning Effect of crash avoidance systems on claim frequency Results pooled across automakers 40% Collision Property damage liability Bodily injury liability MedPay PIP 20% 0% -20% -40% forward front curve-adaptive lane departure blind spot parking rear rear collision autobrake headlights warning warning sensors camera autobrake warning HLDI and police-reported crash data Insurance data Large amount of timely data Limited information on crash circumstances Police-reported crash data More detailed information on crash type Limitations – Some crashes not reported to police – Delay in obtaining data – Data collected not uniform among states, and not all states have information to determine crash types Most crash avoidance technologies are living up to expectations Effects on relevant police-reported crash types all severities injury statistically significant 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% forward collision warning low-speed autobrake FCW with autobrake lane departure warning side-view assist (blind spot) Summary of technology effects on collision claim severity Results pooled across automakers 10% 5% 0% -5% forward collision warning fcw with autobrake adaptive headlights GM collision avoidance features Change in insurance losses for GM vehicles With parking sensors and rearview camera claim claim overall frequency severity losses collision -9.3% -7.1% -4.8% $151 $283 $418 -$21 -$7 $9 property damage liability -19.9% -16.6% -13.2% $7 $139 $277 -$20 -$15 -$9 low high claim severity severity frequency frequency frequency bodily injury liability -23.3% -14.2% -4.0% -28.2% -11.7% 8.6% -21.5% -3.7% 18.2% medical payment -21.5% -12.6% -2.7% -31.9% -7.9% 24.6% -23.6% -10.6% 4.7% personal injury protection -12.1% -4.6% 3.5% -29.4% -12.3% 9.1% -16.3% -6.7% 4.0% Change in insurance losses for GM vehicles With rear automatic braking claim claim overall frequency severity losses collision -17.2% -13.1% -8.7% $537 $846 $1,173 -$21 $7 $37 property damage liability -32.1% -26.3% -20.1% $300 $601 $926