NOAA’s National Service: Evolving to Build a Weather Ready Nation

Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Director, NOAA Assistant Administrator for Weather Services

March 6, 2017 1 Outline

• Prologue • Building a Weather-Ready Nation • Recent Successes • NWS Infrastructure • FY17 Budget/High Priority Items • Summary

2 Prologue • Sustaining the development of the Weather and Water Enterprise

• Building a Weather-Ready Nation – partnerships with the federal/state/local/tribal emergency managers and other decision-makers.

[NWS support] has revolutionized the emergency management community – from a reactive posture to proactive mitigation of impending extreme events. 3

National Weather Service Overview The average person only sees the tip of the iceberg

$7 Billion Industry *

* Source: McKinsey and Company

4 The US Weather Enterprise (Industry, Gov, Academia) is the most successful and strongest in the world

“The NWS’s key role has been to serve as the foundation for the tremendous growth that the enterprise has experienced and will continue to experience.” …..Enabling a thriving industry….

$7B growing weather industry supported by the NWS

~350 companies depend on the NWS to some extent2

“The weather enterprise is a unique group. Almost none of us could exist without the NWS and NOAA.”

….that unlocks economic value... …to save lives…

total value US households estimated potential place on the weather $32B $13B value of weather information they receive3 data to US industry4

1 NWS 2016 budget only (e.g., excludes NESDIS); 2 Wharton 2013 report “Today’s Forecast for the Weather Business” 3 Lazo et al. (2008) “300 Billion Served – Sources, Perceptions, 5 Uses, and Values of Weather Forecasts” 4 Estimated from US variability of US GDP to weather and value of weather data to select industries – see appendix for details Building a Weather-Ready Nation

6 What We Do

MISSION of Today VISION for Tomorrow

Provide weather, water, and A Weather-Ready Nation where seasonal data, forecasts and society is prepared for and warnings for the protection of responds to weather and water life and property and the events; where communities are enhancement of the national “Ready, Responsive and economy Resilient”

7 Framework for Change

• 2012 National Academies of Science (NAS) Reports NAS highlighted the need for continuous change in the NWS and the need to evaluate our function and structure

• 2013 National Academy for Public Administration (NAPA) Report NAPA’s extensive stakeholder research revealed widespread consensus that NWS needs to change in order to meet society’s rapidly changing demands for impact-based weather information. NAPA also found no stakeholder consensus for what to change, how to change, or how fast to change. Basis for Evolve NAPA recommended NWS establish a transparent process to govern significant change, including extensive stakeholder engagement, to build stakeholder trust, participation, and support in guiding change. • Why now? What is motivating a need for change?

8 Increasing Societal Vulnerability to Environmental Hazards

Average Year Loss Events in the US (1980-2015)

26,000 6 Atlantic Severe Storms Hurricanes

650 Deaths and $15B in 1,300 5,000 Losses Tornadoes Floods

Factors contributing to increased vulnerabilities ✓ Increasing population in vulnerable areas 4 out of 5 Americans live in counties that have ✓ More infrastructure at risk to extreme events been declared weather-related disaster areas ✓ Signs of a changing climate in the past six years* • Sea-Level Rise Meanwhile we are now predicting extreme events out to a week in advance! 9 *Source: Environment America NWS Strategic Outcome: A Weather- and Water-Ready Nation

“Ready, Responsive, Resilient”

Becoming a Weather-Ready Nation is about building community resiliency in the face of increasing vulnerability to extreme weather, water and climate events

Better forecasts and warnings Actionable environmental intelligence Consistent products and services Connecting forecasts to decisions Involves the entire US Weather, Water and Climate Enterprise WORKING TOGETHER We have 4600+ WRN Ambassadors 10 10 Realizing the Full Value of Forecasts: Connecting Forecasts to Critical Decisions

* Completing the Forecast, National Academies of Science, 2006

Generating Connecting those forecasts & Realizing Intrinsic forecasts warnings with impacts (IDSS) = Value and and warnings “Impact-based Decision Support Services” Mission Success

Develop relationships and know partner Embed needs when needed

Provide the best hydrological and Support partner meteorological decision making Build trust forecasting in the before, during, and after events world Explain uncertainty 11 ▪ Every NWS office Increasing Need for Local IDSS serves partners

1 with additional Preliminary estimate of IDSS need vs current IDSS capacity by WFO IDSS needs

Montana state EM could benefit from co- Port Authority of ▪ OWA Analysis located fire expert NYC expressed shows 94% of need for partners are additional support local1 – must leverage current infrastructure

▪ Must maintain local presence through the current WFO infrastructure - No Additional office closures opportunity to work with ▪ The level of need Flood Control varies across & Water CDC in Atlanta Districts interested in offices additional support ▪ Partners will be better served by enhancing IDSS at all locations and levels of the organization Additional need for IDSS beyond what is provided today 1 NWS IDSS core and deep partners identified through national training, data call, and review May – July 2016 12 SOURCE: OWA Strategic staffing team Low additional IDSS need Extreme additional IDSS need Ready, Responsive, Resilient Saving Lives and Property

4600+ WRN Ambassadors Pulling it all Multi-faceted Communication Strategy together to build Deep Relationships a Weather-Ready Core Partners Nation and to NWS Employees Providing Impact-Based accomplish Decision Support Services (IDSS)

Accurate & Consistent our mission to Forecasts/Warnings save lives and Social Science Fully-Integrated Field Structure property through a Collaborative Forecast Process

National Blend of Models: Forecast starting point One NWS, One Dissemination Network

Observations and Numerical Weather Prediction 13 13 Recent Successes

14 Recent Success Stories Predicting extreme events 7-8 days in advance • October 2015 South Carolina 20” Rain • Central U.S. Post Christmas 2015 Storm • January 2016 East Coast Blizzard • March 2016 Flooding • June 2016 Southwest Heat Wave • Hurricane Matthew • West Coast Storms and Flooding Winter 2016/2017 • New Orleans Tornadoes in February 2017 • February 2017 Northeast Blizzard • Texas Wildfires in February 2017 Successful Weather, Water and Seasonal IDSS Provided to Local, State, Federal, and Tribal

Partners Before, During and After Events 15 January 2016 Blizzard & Costal Storm: Connecting All of the Pieces Jan 15 - 18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan 21 Jan 22 Medium Confidence Partner Fed./state/local Snow begins in range increasing Coordination/ govts make critical the Mid-Atlantic

decisions before the products Partner Briefings Snow forecast begin snow begins Coordination/ Blizzard adjusted to identifying Briefings Watches include NYC in snowstorm Issued Blizzard Warning threat for the end of next

week

Media

NWS offices interviews Blizzard Warnings begin briefing Issued Schools/Govt Close

partners on Media Flights Canceled 1 pm: Press Briefing Roads Closed potential interviews

storm

16 January 2016 IDSS Example: Long Island Expressway comparison to 2013

2013 Snowstorm 2016 Snowstorm

The Past With NWS Impact-Based Decision Support Services

(IDSS) 17 Comparing the 1974 and 2011 Severe Weather Outbreaks

April 3-4, 1974 Super Outbreak • 150 tornadoes across 13 states • 6 F-5 tornadoes, 24 F-4 • Tornado Track Length: 2500 mi • Tornado Time: 50 hours • “Indications” provided night before • Fatalities: 310-319

April 27-28, 2011 Super Outbreak • ~200 tornadoes across 16 states • 4 EF-5 tornadoes; 11 EF-4 • Tornado Track Length: 2500 mi • Tornado Time: 50 hours • Outbreak forecast 4-6 days prior • Warning lead time ~ 24mins • Fatalities: 316 18 Building a Weather Ready Nation: “A Vital Conversation” December 2011 Workshop in Norman, OK

Focus on the “last mile” – connecting forecasts & warnings to decision-making: • Assess and update warning dissemination strategy • Integrate social and physical science to address: – Is the message delivered equal to the message received? – Impact-based forecast & warnings for wide range of decision makers • Improved outreach and education

19 2017 East New Orleans Tornado

February 7, 2017 EF-3 strength 33 injuries, 0 fatalities Track ~10 miles long ~1/3 mile wide Warning Lead time of ~33 mins

• NWS Local Outreach and Preparedness activities over a 4-year period IDSS training (practice, practice, practice!), weather safety events, WRN Ambassadors, public training, media, school drills • Deep relationships with Emergency Managers/WRN Ambassadors • Dissemination of forecasts and warnings Wireless Emergency Alerts, Twitter, NWSChat, local media coverage • Public awareness Daytime event, visual confirmation, schools sheltered • Collaborative forecast preparations within NWS and the larger enterprise a success • IDSS provided days in advance of the tornado. 20 NWS Infrastructure

21 Establishing the Budget Structure Based on: The Forecast Process

Science & Technology Integration

Observations Dissemination

Central Analyze, Forecast, & Processing Support Central Local Guidance Forecasts

22 Today’s Weather Forecast Everything you read, see or hear about weather, climate and forecasts is based on numerical prediction models

Four Essential Components of the Prediction Enterprise

• Global Observations • ~2B/day • 99.9% remotely senses, from satellites, radars, aircraft, buoys, • Data Assimilation & Modeling/Science • Earth System Model (Atmosphere, Ocean, Land, Ice) • Supercomputers • Computing: Primary/Backup each @ 2.8PF runs with 99.9% reliability

• Forecaster Skill 23 NWS Across the Nation

Automated Surface Observing Sites Doppler Radars

Cooperative Observer Sites NOAA Weather Radio Transmitters

24 Observations Buoy Networks

Upper Air NESDIS Satellites Network

Auto. Surface Obs. System (ASOS)

25 Computer Status/Model Implementation Supported through HFIP and Sandy Supplemental

Increased HPC capacity to 2.8 petaFLOPs Key Atmospheric Model (for primary and backup, respectively–for a total of 5.6 PF) – Upgrades Complete: Accepted for Operations: November 30, 2015 • Jan 2015: Global Forecast System (GFS) upgraded – 13km

out to 10d

• Jun 9, 2015: 2km HWRF

• Sep 2015: SREF, GEFS

• Mar 8, 2016: HIRESW implemented on Cray

• May 11, 2016: GFS/4D ENKF peroperational system

• July 12, 2016: HWRF – Wave Watch 3 Harmful TeraFLOP Algae Bloom •HPC-Based Water Modeling: Forecast • Deploy National Water Model on WCOSS

• HRRR v2.0 (HRRRe)

• Geospace Solar Forecast 26 Computer Status/Model Implementation Supported through HFIP and Sandy Supplemental Increased HPC capacity to 2.8 petaFLOPs (for primary and backup, respectively–for a total of 5.6 PF)

Accepted for Operations: November 30, 2015

TeraFLOPoperational persystem Harmful Algae Bloom Forecast

27 Seamless Suite of Forecasts Increasingly Based on Multi-Model Ensembles

Spanning Weather and Climate Forecast Uncertainty Years Outlook Seasons

Guidance Months • North American Multi-Model Ensemble Threats 2 Week • Climate Forecast System Assessments • North American Ensemble Forecast System 1 Week • Global Ensemble Forecast System Forecasts • Global Forecast System • Global Dust Days • Short-Range Ensemble Forecast •Wave Ensemble Watches • North American Mesoscale • Space Weather Prediction Models

Forecast Lead Time Lead Forecast Hours • Fire Wx • Regional Hurricane • Real Time Ocean Forecasts

Warnings & Alert • Rapid Refresh/HRRR • SSEO (Storm Scale Ensemble of Opportunity)

Coordination Minutes • Dispersion (smoke) Benefits

28 National Water Model (NWM)

Version 1.0 Implemented August 16, 2016 : Based on NCAR WRF-Hydro 29 • Foundation for sustained growth in nationally consistent operational hydrologic forecasting capability • Goals for NWM V1.0 – Provide forecast streamflow guidance for underserved locations – Produce spatially continuous national estimates of hydrologic states (soil moisture, snow pack, etc.) – Implement a modeling architecture that permits rapid infusion of new data and science, and allows for geo- intelligence linkages Current NWS AHPS locations (red) NWM output locations (blue) • Hydrologic Output – River channel discharge & velocity at 2.7 million river reaches – Surface water depth and subsurface flow (250m CONUS+ grid) • Land Surface Output – 1km CONUS+ grid (soil and snow pack states; energy and water fluxes) • Data Services – Public-facing NWC website – Data feed to River Forecast Centers – NOMADS data service Current NWS River Forecast Points (circles) Overlaid with NWM Stream Reaches 29 Integrated Dissemination Program (IDP) OneNWS Network Long-Term Sustainable Solution

Functionality in place at IDP College Park and Boulder* (as of December 2016) • NOMADS* • FTPPush* • FTPPRD* • Global Information • TGFTP* Center System (GISC) * Future Functionality at IDP IDP • MADIS* • IRIS/iNWS* College Park and Boulder IDP Dissemination IDP Dissemination • MRMS* • GMDSS* (Expected By March 2017) Site DSRC Site NCWCP • MAG* • SNOTEL* (Boulder, CO) (College Park, MD) • Radar Level 3* • Hydometeorological • NWS Chat • NWSTG Switch* Automated Data • AOMC/EM7 • BUFR Migration System (HADS)* • SPOT Network “Backbone” Tool (BMT)* • HF-FAX • NLETS* • SOCKET/CMHP • Radar Level 2* • NWS GIS Services Supercomputer Supercomputer • EDIS/FTPMail* • NOS Chart Tile (Reston, VA) (Orlando, FL) • HazCollect • nowCOAST (Extended)* • Weather.gov • HazCollect • VLAB (Legacy)* • SPOT • FNMOC * Application operational in both College Park & Boulder

National External CWSUs / FAA OCONUS CONUS WFOs RFCs Internet Centers Partners CMD CTR

COMPLETE IN PROGRESS IN PROGRESS COMPLETE COMPLETE IN PROGRESS

“OneNWS” Network The future OneNWS network will consolidate all operational networks (OPSnet, Regional, etc.) as a single managed network under NCEP Central Operations (NCO). 30 NWS Operations Community Based Services

31 New! National Water Center NWS FY 2017 Budget High Priority Items

32 FY 2017 Full Year Budget Target based on FY 2016 Enacted Level Composition by Portfolio Funds Breakdown Full Time Employee 1% 12% PPA Funds* s (FTE) 20% Observations ORF 216,363 804 3% Observations PAC 16,720 - Central Processing ORF 92,871 232 4% 3% Central Processing PAC 64,261 22 8% Analyze, Forecast and 496,031 3,010 Support ORF Dissemination ORF 44,743 82 6% Dissemination PAC 45,684 - 43% Science and Technology 138,826 488 Integration ORF Facilities PAC 8,650 - TOTAL 1,124,149 4,638 * In thousands of dollars

33 FY 2017 Portfolio Highlights Observations Science & Tech Integration Facilities • NEXRAD Service Life • Complete GOES –R training development (SIFT) • Complete relocation of Extension • National Water Model v 1.1 WFO Davenport & WFO • ASOS SLEP • GDAS/GFS upgrade (last spectral upgrade) Boston • frequency • NGGPS Dynamic Core Integration • Initiate Facility migration • HWRF upgrade Assessments for 3rd 1/3 • Achieve IOC for GOES-R • Implement Impacts Catalog IDSS Portal • Complete Phase 1 • Weather Buoy • National Blend of Models v3.0 disposal of Annette Recapitalization Island, Alaska • Auto-launchers Dissemination Central Processing • Shutdown legacy NWSTG • AWIPS configured for GOER-R • OneNWS upgrades for data 50 CONUS sites • Complete use case • Mass Dissemination for development for NAWIPS hazardous weather • Extend the performance WRN Ambassador Initiative • GOES-R Readiness period WCOSS supercomputing systems and 4600+ Ambassadors service. Analyze, Forecast, Support • Evaluation of National Blend of • Integration of GOES-16 products into Models prototype demonstration SWPC operations & website • Impacts Catalog demonstration to • CONOPS for NWC Operations Center show integration with field ops • Probabilistic snowfall experiment • Operational Storm Surge expanded to 44 WFOs Watch/Warning in 2017 • Add WFOs to DOT Pathfinder Project

Summary • National Weather Service is a “24x7” science-based service organization dedicated to public safety to save lives, property, and enhance the Nation’s economy • Basis for the growing private enterprise that provides tailored weather and water services throughout the nation and the world. US Weather-Water-Climate enterprise is Second to None. • NWS developed and embraced the Strategic Goal of Building a Weather-Ready Nation through partnerships with Federal, state, local and tribal Emergency Managers and local decision makers • NWS has had incredible success: prediction and preparation for extreme weather water and short-term seasonal to annual climate events (e.g., Southwest Drought) 35 Summary

• Emergency Management – Partnership with the NWS has revolutionized the EM community from one that reacts to events to one that proactively prepares and stays ahead of extreme events. • Growing success stories across the nation – heat waves, floods, hurricanes, severe weather, winter storms, coastal surge, space weather “From the sun to the sea.” • Ongoing effort to Evolve the NWS to focus on the partnerships with the Ems/WRN – Build the reliable state of the technology/services infrastructure from observations – to modeling – to dissemination – to forecasts for IDSS support.

36 Appendix

37 • NWS IDSS users are engaged and From Operations and loud and clear on the need for: Workforce Analysis ‒ Accuracy and consistency ‒ Timely/reliable delivery Our Partners: Need • 94% of IDSS is provided locally for Local IDSS through the Weather Forecast Offices – Must maintain local presence through the current WFO infrastructure • Success depends on: ‒ IDSS focused on core partners and deep relationships with those partners ‒ Knowing partner key decision points/thresholds and risk preferences ‒ Providing consistent IDSS at national, regional and local levels • In response: ‒ NWS must work towards a Fully Integrated Field Structure based on a Collaborative Forecast Process ‒ Working towards “One NWS – One Forecast” to ensure consistency and accuracy 38 38

The Job Doesn’t End with Forecasts and Warnings

“First, it should be understood that forecasts possess no intrinsic value. They acquire value through their ability to influence the decisions made by users of the forecasts.”

“What is a Good Forecast? An Essay on the Nature of Goodness in ” ‒ by Allan H. Murphy; Weather and Forecasting (June 1993) 39

NWS Overview Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs)

– Issue all Local Forecasts and Warnings – Build and Maintain Relationships With Local and State Governments – Provide Expert Advice to Emergency Managers and other Decision Makers – Solicit Customer Feedback on Products and Services – Conduct Community Awareness and Education Programs – Train Volunteer Observers and Storm Spotters

40 40 NWS Overview River Forecast Centers (RFCs)

– Issue river, reservoir and flood forecasts based on computer models – Provide forecast guidance to Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) – Work with water managers and other Federal Agencies –IWRSS –(IWRSS) – (IWRSS)

41 41 NWS Overview National Centers

Weather Prediction National Hurricane Center Center College Park, MD N T R Miami, FL E A C L Storm Prediction Environmental Ocean Prediction Center Modeling Center Norman, OK O Center S College Park, MD P N E O Aviation Weather R I Climate Prediction Center A T Center Kansas City, MO College Park, MD Space Weather Prediction Center Boulder, CO

42

National Water Center University of Alabama – Tuscaloosa, AL A catalyst to transform NOAA’s water prediction program

VISION: Scientific excellence and innovation driving water prediction to support decisions for a water resilient nation

MISSION: Nationally Integrated Water Prediction • Center of excellence for water resources science and prediction • Operations Center to establish common operating picture within NOAA and among water agencies; decision support for floods to droughts (flood mapping to street level) • Proving ground to accelerate R2O and O2R • Interagency and Academia Collaboration (e.g., Federal Partners, CUAHSI, UCAR, NCAR) • Data integration and service backup • Earth system modeling and geo-intelligence 43