NOAA’s National Weather Service: Evolving to Build a Weather Ready Nation Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Director, National Weather Service NOAA Assistant Administrator for Weather Services March 6, 2017 1 Outline • Prologue • Building a Weather-Ready Nation • Recent Successes • NWS Infrastructure • FY17 Budget/High Priority Items • Summary 2 Prologue • Sustaining the development of the Weather and Water Enterprise • Building a Weather-Ready Nation – partnerships with the federal/state/local/tribal emergency managers and other decision-makers. [NWS support] has revolutionized the emergency management community – from a reactive posture to proactive mitigation of impending extreme events. 3 National Weather Service Overview The average person only sees the tip of the iceberg $7 Billion Industry * * Source: McKinsey and Company 4 The US Weather Enterprise (Industry, Gov, Academia) is the most successful and strongest in the world “The NWS’s key role has been to serve as the foundation for the tremendous growth that the enterprise has experienced and will continue to experience.” …..Enabling a thriving industry…. $7B growing weather industry supported by the NWS ~350 companies depend on the NWS to some extent2 “The weather enterprise is a unique group. Almost none of us could exist without the NWS and NOAA.” ….that unlocks economic value... …to save lives… total value US households estimated potential place on the weather $32B $13B value of weather information they receive3 data to US industry4 1 NWS 2016 budget only (e.g., excludes NESDIS); 2 Wharton 2013 report “Today’s Forecast for the Weather Business” 3 Lazo et al. (2008) “300 Billion Served – Sources, Perceptions, 5 Uses, and Values of Weather Forecasts” 4 Estimated from US variability of US GDP to weather and value of weather data to select industries – see appendix for details Building a Weather-Ready Nation 6 What We Do MISSION of Today VISION for Tomorrow Provide weather, water, and A Weather-Ready Nation where seasonal data, forecasts and society is prepared for and warnings for the protection of responds to weather and water life and property and the events; where communities are enhancement of the national “Ready, Responsive and economy Resilient” 7 Framework for Change • 2012 National Academies of Science (NAS) Reports NAS highlighted the need for continuous change in the NWS and the need to evaluate our function and structure • 2013 National Academy for Public Administration (NAPA) Report NAPA’s extensive stakeholder research revealed widespread consensus that NWS needs to change in order to meet society’s rapidly changing demands for impact-based weather information. NAPA also found no stakeholder consensus for what to change, how to change, or how fast to change. Basis for Evolve NAPA recommended NWS establish a transparent process to govern significant change, including extensive stakeholder engagement, to build stakeholder trust, participation, and support in guiding change. • Why now? What is motivating a need for change? 8 Increasing Societal Vulnerability to Environmental Hazards Average Year Loss Events in the US (1980-2015) 26,000 6 Atlantic Severe Storms Hurricanes 650 Deaths and $15B in 1,300 5,000 Losses Tornadoes Floods Factors contributing to increased vulnerabilities ✓ Increasing population in vulnerable areas 4 out of 5 Americans live in counties that have ✓ More infrastructure at risk to extreme events been declared weather-related disaster areas ✓ Signs of a changing climate in the past six years* • Sea-Level Rise Meanwhile we are now predicting extreme events out to a week in advance! 9 *Source: Environment America NWS Strategic Outcome: A Weather- and Water-Ready Nation “Ready, Responsive, Resilient” Becoming a Weather-Ready Nation is about building community resiliency in the face of increasing vulnerability to extreme weather, water and climate events Better forecasts and warnings Actionable environmental intelligence Consistent products and services Connecting forecasts to decisions Involves the entire US Weather, Water and Climate Enterprise WORKING TOGETHER We have 4600+ WRN Ambassadors 10 10 Realizing the Full Value of Forecasts: Connecting Forecasts to Critical Decisions * Completing the Forecast, National Academies of Science, 2006 Generating Connecting those forecasts & Realizing Intrinsic forecasts warnings with impacts (IDSS) = Value and and warnings “Impact-based Decision Support Services” Mission Success Develop relationships and know partner Embed needs when needed Provide the best hydrological and Support partner meteorological decision making Build trust forecasting in the before, during, and after events world Explain uncertainty 11 ▪ Every NWS office Increasing Need for Local IDSS serves partners 1 with additional Preliminary estimate of IDSS need vs current IDSS capacity by WFO IDSS needs Montana state EM could benefit from co- Port Authority of ▪ OWA Analysis located fire expert NYC expressed shows 94% of need for partners are additional support local1 – must leverage current infrastructure ▪ Must maintain local presence through the current WFO infrastructure - No Additional office closures opportunity to work with ▪ The level of need Flood Control varies across & Water CDC in Atlanta Districts interested in offices additional support ▪ Partners will be better served by enhancing IDSS at all locations and levels of the organization Additional need for IDSS beyond what is provided today 1 NWS IDSS core and deep partners identified through national training, data call, and review May – July 2016 12 SOURCE: OWA Strategic staffing team Low additional IDSS need Extreme additional IDSS need Ready, Responsive, Resilient Saving Lives and Property 4600+ WRN Ambassadors Pulling it all Multi-faceted Communication Strategy together to build Deep Relationships a Weather-Ready Core Partners Nation and to NWS Employees Providing Impact-Based accomplish Decision Support Services (IDSS) Accurate & Consistent our mission to Forecasts/Warnings save lives and Social Science Fully-Integrated Field Structure property through a Collaborative Forecast Process National Blend of Models: Forecast starting point One NWS, One Dissemination Network Observations and Numerical Weather Prediction 13 13 Recent Successes 14 Recent Success Stories Predicting extreme events 7-8 days in advance • October 2015 South Carolina 20” Rain • Central U.S. Post Christmas 2015 Storm • January 2016 East Coast Blizzard • March 2016 Flooding • June 2016 Southwest Heat Wave • Hurricane Matthew • West Coast Storms and Flooding Winter 2016/2017 • New Orleans Tornadoes in February 2017 • February 2017 Northeast Blizzard • Texas Wildfires in February 2017 Successful Weather, Water and Seasonal IDSS Provided to Local, State, Federal, and Tribal Partners Before, During and After Events 15 January 2016 Blizzard & Costal Storm: Connecting All of the Pieces Jan 15 - 18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan 21 Jan 22 Medium Confidence Partner Fed./state/local Snow begins in range increasing Coordination/ govts make critical the Mid-Atlantic decisions before the products Partner Briefings Snow forecast begin snow begins Coordination/ Blizzard adjusted to identifying Briefings Watches include NYC in snowstorm Issued Blizzard Warning threat for the end of next week Media NWS offices interviews Blizzard Warnings begin briefing Issued Schools/Govt Close partners on Media Flights Canceled 1 pm: Press Briefing Roads Closed potential interviews storm 16 January 2016 IDSS Example: Long Island Expressway comparison to 2013 2013 Snowstorm 2016 Snowstorm The Past With NWS Impact-Based Decision Support Services (IDSS) 17 Comparing the 1974 and 2011 Severe Weather Outbreaks April 3-4, 1974 Super Outbreak • 150 tornadoes across 13 states • 6 F-5 tornadoes, 24 F-4 • Tornado Track Length: 2500 mi • Tornado Time: 50 hours • “Indications” provided night before • Fatalities: 310-319 April 27-28, 2011 Super Outbreak • ~200 tornadoes across 16 states • 4 EF-5 tornadoes; 11 EF-4 • Tornado Track Length: 2500 mi • Tornado Time: 50 hours • Outbreak forecast 4-6 days prior • Warning lead time ~ 24mins • Fatalities: 316 18 Building a Weather Ready Nation: “A Vital Conversation” December 2011 Workshop in Norman, OK Focus on the “last mile” – connecting forecasts & warnings to decision-making: • Assess and update warning dissemination strategy • Integrate social and physical science to address: – Is the message delivered equal to the message received? – Impact-based forecast & warnings for wide range of decision makers • Improved outreach and education 19 2017 East New Orleans Tornado February 7, 2017 EF-3 strength 33 injuries, 0 fatalities Track ~10 miles long ~1/3 mile wide Warning Lead time of ~33 mins • NWS Local Outreach and Preparedness activities over a 4-year period IDSS training (practice, practice, practice!), weather safety events, WRN Ambassadors, public training, media, school drills • Deep relationships with Emergency Managers/WRN Ambassadors • Dissemination of forecasts and warnings Wireless Emergency Alerts, Twitter, NWSChat, local media coverage • Public awareness Daytime event, visual confirmation, schools sheltered • Collaborative forecast preparations within NWS and the larger enterprise a success • IDSS provided days in advance of the tornado. 20 NWS Infrastructure 21 Establishing the Budget Structure Based on: The Forecast Process Science & Technology Integration Observations Dissemination Central Analyze, Forecast, & Processing Support Central Local Guidance Forecasts 22 Today’s Weather Forecast Everything you