Positive Development: Design for Urban Climate Mitigation and Ecological Gains

Total Page:16

File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb

Positive Development: Design for Urban Climate Mitigation and Ecological Gains Stream 5 – Pushing the Boundaries: Net Positive Buildings (SB13): CaGBC National Conference & Expo, Vancouver BC, June 4-6, 2013 Positive Development: Design for Urban Climate Mitigation and Ecological Gains B.C. Renger Queensland University of Technology, Australia J.L. Birkeland University of Auckland, New Zealand D.J. Midmore Central Queensland University, Australia ABSTRACT: Positive Development (PD) theory reframes sustainable planning, design and decision making within an open systems and eco-positive framework. PD posits that buildings can go beyond regeneration and resilience over their life cycle to increase the net ecological base beyond pre-industrial conditions through, among other principles, building-generated eco- services. As architects and a biologist, as well as with substantial inter-disciplinary expert support, we applied PD concepts, methods and tools to a building design to test whether a future architecture could mitigate the urban climate while increasing environmental quality, ecological carrying capacity and access to the means of survival. Given data and time constraints, this paper only calculates when the building could potentially amortize its embodied and operating energy, water usage and carbon emissions. The conclusion is that buildings that support substantial ‘ecological space’ for soil, vegetation and micro-biodiversity could potentially make net positive contributions to both humans and nature. 1. INTRODUCTION The paper documents an analysis that was undertaken to determine if a building could sequester carbon equivalent to that emitted in its construction and operation by building integrated vegetation, and generating energy and water surplus to usage. The potential net positive ecological impacts (relative to pre-industrial conditions) were also considered, but could not be included in this short paper. 1.1 Background Cities, and the built environment generally, are not yet sustainable by any definition. Their designs do more harm than good to the life support system, and exacerbate most environmental problems and ‘natural’ disasters (e.g., flooding, earthquakes, urban heat island). Conventional sustainable development standards and tools do not yet contemplate construction that makes measurable, net positive contributions to ecological sustainability. Leading-edge positions aim to leave the environment better than under current site conditions (Lyle 1994, DuPlessis 2012, Cole 2012). However, remediation or regeneration of the environment is not enough, as the real world context has changed dramatically. Given rapidly diminishing resources, an exploding population, increasing disparities of wealth and biodiversity losses (the food chain), built environment design must do far more than regenerate the ecology on the construction site. A fundamental paradigm shift is necessary from what is now called ‘sustainable development’ to net Positive Development (PD). PD theory provides a ‘positive’ re-formulation of policies, decision systems, design concepts, models, analyses, methods and metrics (Birkeland 2008). It is virtually the opposite of the ‘negative’ dominant paradigm (DP). Simply put, PD 83 Stream 5 – Pushing the Boundaries: Net Positive Buildings (SB13): CaGBC National Conference & Expo, Vancouver BC, June 4-6, 2013 holds that to be sustainable, given existing ecological and social deficits and population growth, built environments must not only add social, cultural and economic value, they must give back to nature more than they take (Birkeland 2003). This means increasing ecosystem carrying capacity and the public estate (access to means of survival and well being). Although cities are a major cause of sustainability issues (Girardet 1996) they can be converted into drivers of sustainability. Cities can provide the space and infrastructure to increase passive or natural systems and services and replace many non-renewable resources, at no net loss of space for human activities and functions, as the present design shows as one example. The PD Sustainability Standard is defined as pre-industrial ecological conditions in the bioregion and/or site (on a floor area or ecological footprint basis) as a benchmark for the net positive impacts that a development would need to provide in order to reimburse the future for past and present impacts through increases in the ecology, ecosystems and eco-services [Appendix 1]. Eco- services are nature’s services, like clean air, water, food, carbon sequestration and oxygen production, but include the intrinsic values of nature (Cf. Birkeland 2009 a & b for examples). Eco-positive design criteria follow logically from this benchmark (Birkeland 2008, pp. 257-8) and were applied to this project. 2. THE PROJECT Given the ongoing impacts of cities and construction processes, retrofitting cities is essential to sustainability. However, some new buildings will always be necessary and they are more challenging in terms of PD criteria. Therefore, this exploratory research applied some PD methods, tools and metrics to a new building design. An extensive literature search did not reveal a modern building that attempts to increase the natural life support system or access to the means of survival in absolute terms. While a demonstration project for net PD was designed for a site in Canberra, Australia (ANSI 2007), it was suspended by the economic downturn of 2008 [Appendix 4]. The present research was based on a site in Brisbane, with a subtropical climate and therefore a very different design. The research question was whether architecture could mitigate the urban climate and increase the natural life support system in measurable ways. This research quantifies some of the photosynthesis, air and water treatment functions of extensive integrated vegetation. This paper, however, is limited to carbon emissions, water cycles, embodied and operational energy and not ecological aspects or carrying capacity (forthcoming). The quantitative analysis found that a building can conceivably reverse these impacts through passive solar and renewable energy systems that exceed resource autonomy and by providing substantial ‘ecological space’ (see below). The study concludes that a conventional architecture cannot achieve this Sustainability Standard. A new eco-positive paradigm for environmental planning, design and assessment is required. Inter-disciplinary integration and collaboration are an essential part of any sustainable design process. The positive and negative impacts relevant to water, carbon and energy were assessed with the assistance of research partners with different specializations. The authors are grateful for the support and expertise of many firms and individuals for their expertise, including: Environmental Scientist Dan Potter of Chenoweth Environmental Planning on pre-clear vegetation communities; Patrick Campbell of WSP Built Ecology on energy balance and photovoltaics; Dominic Xavier and Elena Bogdanova of Sustainable Solutions International (SSI) on water balance; Delwyn Jones, Evah Institute, for life cycle assessment; architects including Peddle Thorp Architects, Brisbane for constructive feedback; Department of Environment, Research and Development for pre-clear vegetation datasets, historical surveys, maps and other information; Dr. Mirko Guaralda of the QUT in Brisbane, Australia, for advice. None of the above is responsible for the content of this paper. 84 Stream 5 – Pushing the Boundaries: Net Positive Buildings (SB13): CaGBC National Conference & Expo, Vancouver BC, June 4-6, 2013 2.1 Site selection and analysis: PD seeks to identify urban projects that can address urban social and ecological shortfalls and overshoots, and benefit the society and ecology as well as investors. In this case, the selected site is a 28 hectare remnant of land which was, prior to the establishment of Exhibition Grounds, used since 1862 by the Queensland Acclimatisation Society to promote the introduction of economically useful ‘foreign’ plants, materials and animals. This site was suitable for increasing indigenous ecosystems through physical development. The proposed use was a sustainability research and learning hub to facilitate collaboration between industry, researchers and the community on sustainability issues. An Interpretive Centre, in proximity to the Brisbane CBD, could also catalyze the social and economic revitalization of this derelict, transport-dominated and fragmented area. Therefore, a wide range of social, educational and cultural uses and values were incorporated in the design. Ecological Transformation Analysis was applied as one of 12 PD planning analyses designed to address some information gaps that would be required for ethics-based planning and design [Appendix 3]. It maps the original site ecology to guide the reintroduction of endangered species and appropriate vegetation, and to increase environmental flows (Cf. Sanderson 2009). Quantitative measures of on-site water and original rainfall data were available from historical maps and surveys and the Bureau of Meteorology. No water bodies currently exist on site, but the earliest available survey (1863) shows a creek and waterholes. This guided the location of proposed streams and biotopes and provided useful parameters for increasing appropriate soil, water and ecosystems. Indigenous plants indicate what ecosystems may be successful on the site. Predominantly three broad vegetation communities existed on this site before European settlement. Their biodiversity status is all ‘of concern’
Recommended publications
  • Eco-Positive Design: Moving Beyond Ecological Restoration
    Dr Janis Birkeland Earth & Environment ︱ Dr Birkeland, with co-authors Birte Christina Renger and David J. Midmore, discuss the positive role buildings could play in carbon sequestration. Buildings are currently a major CO2 source but the usual approach is to compensate Eco-positive design: for the emissions from a building’s Moving beyond ecological restoration operation, and not the emissions used in resource extraction and construction. They show quantitatively that, with a With a background in art, ities and buildings have greatly CHANGING OUR BUILT different approach to design, buildings architecture, planning and law, improved human life but at a ENVIRONMENTS could sequester more CO2 than they Dr Janis Birkeland from the C huge cost to the planet around Dr Birkeland has long advocated changing emit over their full lifecycle (Renger et al., University of Melbourne is well us. We have decimated the very thing the way we think about sustainability and 2015). By designing buildings to support positioned to understand and that ultimately sustains us – nature ecological design. What is now called substantial and permanent planting, address the current obstacles itself. According to the World Wildlife ‘sustainable development’ only aims to carbon amortization can be achieved to sustainability. As the Fund, for example, 50% of the earth’s improve upon best practice – which is far far earlier in the building’s lifecycle originator of net-positive design biodiversity has been lost in 50 years from ecologically and socially sustainable. compared to using only renewable energy and development or ‘Positive (WWF, 2018). At its core, Positive Each construction project diminishes the systems.
    [Show full text]
  • Quantifying and Modelling the Incompatibility of Sustainable Development Goals
    International Journal of Sustainable Development & World Ecology ISSN: 1350-4509 (Print) 1745-2627 (Online) Journal homepage: http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/tsdw20 The sustainable development oxymoron: quantifying and modelling the incompatibility of sustainable development goals Viktoria Spaiser, Shyam Ranganathan, Ranjula Bali Swain & David J. T. Sumpter To cite this article: Viktoria Spaiser, Shyam Ranganathan, Ranjula Bali Swain & David J. T. Sumpter (2017) The sustainable development oxymoron: quantifying and modelling the incompatibility of sustainable development goals, International Journal of Sustainable Development & World Ecology, 24:6, 457-470, DOI: 10.1080/13504509.2016.1235624 To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13504509.2016.1235624 © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Informa View supplementary material UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. Published online: 23 Sep 2016. Submit your article to this journal Article views: 1910 View related articles View Crossmark data Citing articles: 2 View citing articles Full Terms & Conditions of access and use can be found at http://www.tandfonline.com/action/journalInformation?journalCode=tsdw20 Download by: [University of Leeds] Date: 15 September 2017, At: 06:56 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT & WORLD ECOLOGY, 2017 VOL. 24, NO. 6, 457–470 https://doi.org/10.1080/13504509.2016.1235624 The sustainable development oxymoron: quantifying and modelling the incompatibility of sustainable development goals Viktoria Spaiser a, Shyam Ranganathan b, Ranjula
    [Show full text]
  • Transformations for Sustainable Development
    natural resources human beings Planet stakeholdersprotect participation social People progresscommunityprogress individualitysocieties rights solidarityfreedom climate change ambition understanding transform economic countries development plan of actionresilient productive potential end poverty and hunger alleviateProsperity strengthened equality healthy environment efficient access fulfilling manage equality needs nature mobilize Peace global challenge technological lives dignitygender improve Interlinkages purpose sustainable consumption harmony forms and dimensions Partnership TRANSFORMATIONS FOR generations SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT PROMOTING ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY progress in Asia and the Pacific world better The Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) is the regional development arm of the United Nations and serves as the main economic and social development centre for the United Nations in the region. Its mandate is to foster cooperation between its 53 members and 9 associate members. ESCAP provides the strategic link between the global and country-level programmes and issues. It supports governments in consolidating regional positions and advocates regional approaches to meeting the region’s unique socioeconomic challenges in a globalizing world. The ESCAP office is located in Bangkok. Please visit the ESCAP website at www.unescap. org for further information. The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) is the leading global environmental authority that sets the global environmental agenda, promotes
    [Show full text]
  • The Characteristics, Influencing Factors, and Push-Pull Mechanism
    sustainability Article The Characteristics, Influencing Factors, and Push-Pull Mechanism of Shrinking Counties: A Case Study of Shandong Province, China Min Wang 1,2,*, Shuqi Yang 1, Huajie Gao 1 and Kahaer Abudu 1 1 College of Urban and Environment Science, Central China Normal University, Wuhan 430079, China; [email protected] (S.Y.); [email protected] (H.G.); [email protected] (K.A.) 2 Key Laboratory for Geographical Process Analysis & Simulation Hubei Province, Central China Normal University, Wuhan 430079, China * Correspondence: [email protected]; Tel.:+86-027-6786-8305 Abstract: To analyze the characteristics, influencing factors, and microscopic mechanisms of county- level city shrinkage, this paper uses a quantitative push-pull model to explore the shrinking counties of Shandong Province between 2000 and 2018. The measurement method formulates three research objectives. First, the shrinking intensity and characteristics are analyzed according to statistics about the average annual rate of population growth, the primary production proportion, and public expenditure. Second, the influence factors are explored. Living standards, industrial development, social input, and public resource indicators are selected to quantitatively identify the push factors and pull factors and the correlated relationship of how the factors influence the population decline using ridge regression. Finally, the circular feedback mechanism and push-pull effect of multiple factors are explained. How do the factors affect each other and which is the decisive factor shaping county shrinkage? The push-pull mechanism is analyzed using dynamic relationship testing and Citation: Wang, M.; Yang, S.; Gao, H.; the Granger causality test. The results show that the shrinkage of county-level cities faces common Abudu, K.
    [Show full text]
  • Evaluating the Practice and Outcomes of Applying Regenerative Development to a Large-Scale Project in Victoria, Australia
    sustainability Article Evaluating the Practice and Outcomes of Applying Regenerative Development to a Large-Scale Project in Victoria, Australia Dominique Hes ID , André Stephan * ID and Sareh Moosavi Faculty of Architecture, Building and Planning, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC 3010, Australia; [email protected] (D.H.); [email protected] (S.M.) * Correspondence: [email protected]; Tel.: +61-3-8344-5929 Received: 27 November 2017; Accepted: 6 February 2018; Published: 9 February 2018 Abstract: Regenerative development is one of the critical pathways or processes towards an ecological worldview and a built environment in synergy with the natural environment. This vision aims to restore and support environmental, social and economic flows from a systems perspective. While regenerative development has been discussed in theory and applied to some projects, very few studies have analysed the processes that support its emergence. Our study investigates the design process of an ongoing development project, “Seacombe West” in Victoria, Australia. It evaluates the design outputs, using the LENSES Framework (Living Environments in Natural, Social, and Economic Systems) which is specifically designed to facilitate the emergence of regenerative development thinking. The project included a series of four workshops that led to a set of guidelines that in turn were used to design a masterplan. We evaluate the resulting guidelines, the masterplan, and the experience of the participants through an online survey (70% response rate) and semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders. Our results show that using LENSES encouraged systems thinking and helps facilitate a transdisciplinary approach towards regenerative development. This evaluation provides insights into how regenerative development can emerge in projects and how the potential for net benefit can be embedded.
    [Show full text]
  • Positive Development from Vicious Circles to Virtuous Cycles Through Built Environment Design
    POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM VICIOUS CIRCLES TO VIRTUOUS CYCLES THROUGH BUILT ENVIRONMENT DESIGN JANIS BIRKELAND Positive Development Positive Development ‘is is a wonderful book that should be on the desk of every architect and planner. It shows how our decisions about the built environment can be a positive contribution to shaping a sustainable future.’ Emeritus Professor Ian Lowe, President, Australian Conservation Foundation ‘One of the best books on sustainability I’ve read in a long time … clear, compelling, and dead on. e challenges of sustainability are fundamentally design problems and Janis Birkeland is a remarkably insightful guide to the transformation. Must reading.’ David Orr, Oberlin College, author of The Nature of Design and Ecological Literacy ‘Birkeland’s book takes the next step beyond Ian McHarg’s design with nature and Janine Benyus’s design like nature. It argues that design for nature, or “design for eco-services”, is long overdue, and explains how we can do it.’ Hunter Lovins, President and founder of the Natural Capitalism Solutions ‘A heralding work of how a positive and innovative design agenda for the built environment, underlined by an uncompromising valuation of ecology and nature’s services, can mobilize our eorts in becoming native to the planet.’ Michael Braungart, Professor of Material Flow Management at University Lüneburg, Germany and co-author of Cradle to Cradle ‘Drawing on her expertise in law, planning and design, Janis Birkeland always has something startling to say. And in an area dominated by so much utopian dreaming, she puts politics as well as careful analysis into sustainability. is book is an unusual, and heartening, combination of the radical and the realistic.’ Clive Hamilton, former Executive Director of e Australia Institute, author of Growth Fetish and co-author of Affluenza ‘While some are beginning to realise that we cannot continue to take resources from, and dump waste freely back on, our planet, there still pervades the notion that sustainable development is about minimizing the impacts of these actions.
    [Show full text]
  • Net-Positive Design and Development Janis Birkeland
    Net-positive Design and Development janis birkeland he burgeoning interest in urban green-grey infrastructure is bringing together Janis Birkeland is Honorary Tmany disciplines, ranging from urban ecology to sociology. This convergence Professorial Fellow and Associate of of views promises to direct attention toward basic sustainability issues that have the Thrive Research Centre, Faculty of fallen between professional boundaries. In the past, the built-environment design Architecture, Building and Planning, fields (urban, building and landscape design) tended to regard the others as black University of Melbourne, Victoria boxes. Despite collaborative practices, professional territories contributed to 3010, Australia. ‘closed-system thinking’. For example, sometimes architects do not think outside Email: Janis.lynn.birkeland@gmail. the building envelope, landscape architects do not think outside property lines com and planners do not think outside urban borders. Consequently, some green- building rating tools count indoor air quality as an ‘ecological gain’. Yet an ecological gain, when the human population and consumption are growing, must increase space for nature, ecosystems and biodiversity habitats. One illustration KEY WORDS of gaps that occur due to conceptual boundaries is where landscaping fails to Green infrastructure offset the impacts of the structures that support it. Design for eco-services Designers of buildings, public spaces and infrastructure projects increasingly Ecological footprint use green roofs or walls to help purify the air and provide other environmental Eco-positive buildings amenities (Velazquez, 2008). While greenery may compensate for some ground Open systems thinking area covered by the construction, building surfaces do not provide adequate vegetation to treat a building’s harmful emissions (such as volatile organic compounds, solvents and adhesives), let alone cleanse the polluted outside air that infiltrates the building.
    [Show full text]
  • Climate Positive Development C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group
    GOOD PRACTICE GUIDE Climate Positive Development C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group The C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group, now in its 10th year, connects more than 80 of the world’s greatest cities, representing 600+ million people and one quarter of the global economy. Created and led by cities, C40 is focused on tackling climate change and driving urban action that reduces greenhouse gas emissions and climate risks, while increasing the health, well-being and economic opportunities of urban citizens. www.c40.org The C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group has developed a series of Good Practice Guides in areas critical for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and climate risk. The Guides provide an overview of the key benefits of a particular climate action and outline successful approaches and strategies cities can employ to implement or effectively scale up these actions. These Guides are based on the experience and lessons learned from C40 cities and on the findings and recommendations of leading organisations and research institutions engaged in these areas. The good practice approaches are relevant for cities engaged in C40 Networks as well as for other cities around the world. TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................ 3 1 BACKGROUND .................................................................................................................. 4 1.1. PURPOSE .................................................................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Challenging Policy Barriers in Sustainable Urban Design
    Bulletin of Geography. Socio–economic Series / No. 40 (2018): 41–56 BULLETIN OF GEOGRAPHY. SOCIO–ECONOMIC SERIES DE journal homepages: http://www.bulletinofgeography.umk.pl/ http://wydawnictwoumk.pl/czasopisma/index.php/BGSS/index http://www.degruyter.com/view/j/bog ISSN 1732–4254 quarterly G Challenging policy barriers in sustainable urban design Janis BirkelandCDMR University of Melbourne, Faculty of Architecture, Building and Planning, VIC 3010, Melbourne, Australia; e-mail: janis.lynn. [email protected] How to cite: Birkeland, J. (2018). Challenging policy barriers in sustainable development. Bulletin of Geography. Socio-economic Series, 40(40), 41–56. DOI: http://doi.org/10.2478/bog-2018-0013 Abstract. In built environment design, codes set minimum health and safety re- Article details: quirements, policies set aspirational targets, and incentives such as green build- Received: 30 November 2017 ing rating schemes set design standards. These approaches have failed to provide Revised: 03 March 2018 universal wellbeing and environmental justice (i.e. intra-generational equity), or Accepted: 15 March 2018 increases in the natural life-support system that exceed depletion rates (i.e. in- ter-generational equity). Governments that do not ensure all citizens can obtain basic needs, life quality and resource security fail to meet their basic responsibil- ities. Two recent documents, one representing sustainable urban policy and prin- ciples, the other representing urban biodiversity standards, are examined against the Positive Development Test (whether the development increases the public es- Key words: tate, ecological base and future public options). The discussion suggests that con- urban design, temporary policies and incentive schemes, as presently conceived, cannot provide positive development, green building rating tools, the basic physical preconditions for sustainability, let alone address socio-econom- net-positive design, ic inequities.
    [Show full text]
  • Sustainable Design Strategy 2013
    SUSTAINABLE DESIGN STRATEGY Contact us for a translation This information is provided by the City of Port Phillip to inform residents about Council services and responsibilities. For a translation of this information contact the Council’s interpreter service. Αυτές οι πληροφορίες παρέχονται από το ∆ήμο Port Phillip για την ενημέρωση των κατοίκων σχετικά με τις δημοτικές υπηρεσίες και υποχρεώσεις. Για μετάφραση αυτών των πληροφοριών επικοινωνήστε με την υπηρεσία διερμηνέων του δήμου. Κλήσεις στα ελληνικά 9679 9811. Эта информация об услугах и обязанностях муниципалитета Port Phillip представлена для жителей муниципалитета. Чтобы получить перевод этой информации, звоните в муниципальную службу переводчиков. На русском языке – звоните по тел. 9679 9813. Niniejsza informacja pochodzi z Urzędu Gminy Port Phillip w celu powiadomienia mieszkańców o usługach i obowiązkach naszego Urzędu. Egzemplarz tej informacji w języku polskim otrzymać można kontaktując się ze służbą tłumaczeń Urzędu. Polski telefon 9679 9812. Revised Sustainable Design Strategy 2013 Key Document Contributors: Natasha Palich, Lalitha Ramachandran, Sally Moxham, Caroline Chandler, Nic Drent, George Borg, Jane Birmingham, Richard Schuster, Leon Yates and Steven McKellar. Disclaimer: This strategy and the associated appendix materials have been produced in good faith with all information contained deemed to be correct at time of adoption and subsequent publication. The City of Port Phillip and the contributors listed above take no responsibility, legally or financially, for any
    [Show full text]
  • What Is Green Building?
    Green Building Overview and Issues March 12, 2021 Congressional Research Service https://crsreports.congress.gov R46719 SUMMARY R46719 Green Building Overview and Issues March 12, 2021 Buildings, whether residential, commercial, government, or special-use, are core components of the nation’s infrastructure. Their construction, operation, and demolition Corrie E. Clark are increasingly recognized as major sources of environmental impact. Without Analyst in Energy Policy significant transformation of building construction and operations, that impact is expected to increase with population growth and changes in other demographic and economic factors. One strategy for achieving that transformation is most widely known by the term green building. In general, green building can be characterized as integrated building practices that significantly reduce the environmental footprint of a building in comparison to standard practices. Descriptions of green building generally focus on a number of common elements, especially siting, energy, water, materials, waste, and health. Serviceability or utility is also an explicit design element for a class of green buildings known as high- performance buildings. One of the most salient features of green building is integration of the various elements. Although individual elements can be addressed separately, the green building approach is more comprehensive, focusing on the environmental footprint of a building over its life cycle, from initial design and construction to operations during the building’s useful life, through eventual demolition and its aftermath. The desire to integrate the various elements of green building has led to the development of rating and certification systems to assess how well a building project meets a specified set of green criteria.
    [Show full text]
  • The Impact of Demographic Change on European Regions
    The impact of demographic change on European regions This report was written by Erik Gløersen, Marius Drăgulin, Sebastian Hans (Spatial Foresight GmbH), Jiannis Kaucic, Bernd Schuh, Florian Keringer (ÖIR) and Pietro Celotti (t33 Srl). It does not represent the official views of the Committee of the Regions. More information on the European Union and the Committee of the Regions is available online at http://www.europa.eu and http://www.cor.europa.eu respectively. Catalogue number: QG-01-16-274-EN-N ISBN: 978-92-895-0867-4 doi:10.2863/26932 © European Union, 2016 Partial reproduction is permitted, provided that the source is explicitly mentioned. Table of Contents Executive summary ............................................................................................. 1 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 5 1 Overview of demographic changes and projections .................................. 9 1.1 Overall demographic trends in Europe and its neighbourhood .............. 10 1.2 National and regional patterns of natural change ................................... 26 1.3 Gender imbalances .................................................................................. 32 1.4 Migratory patterns ................................................................................... 34 1.5 Projections ............................................................................................... 44 1.6 European Union initiatives addressing demographic change
    [Show full text]