Managing Ocean Environments in a Changing Climate: Sustainability and Economic Perspectives
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MANAGING OCEAN ENVIRONMENTS IN A CHANGING CLIMATE Intentionally left as blank MANAGING OCEAN ENVIRONMENTS IN A CHANGING CLIMATE Sustainability and Economic Perspectives Edited By KEVIN J. NOONE USSIF RASHID SUMAILA ROBERT J. DIAZ AMSTERDAM • BOSTON • HEIDELBERG • LONDON • NEW YORK • OXFORD PARIS • SAN DIEGO • SAN FRANCISCO • SINGAPORE • SYDNEY • TOKYO Elsevier 30 Corporate Drive, Suite 400, Burlington, MA 01803, USA 525 B Street, Suite 1800, San Diego, CA 92101-4495, USA First edition 2013 Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without the prior written permission of the publisher. Permissions may be sought directly from Elsevier’s Science & Technology Rights Department in Oxford, UK: phone (þ44) (0) 1865 843830; fax (þ44) (0) 1865 853333; email: [email protected]. Alternatively you can submit your request online by visiting the Elsevier web site at http://elsevier.com/locate/permissions, and selecting Obtaining permission to use Elsevier material. Notice No responsibility is assumed by the publisher for any injury and/or damage to persons or property as a matter of products liability, negligence or otherwise, or from any use or operation of any methods, products, instructions or ideas contained in the material herein. Because of rapid advances in the medical sciences, in particular, independent verification of diagnoses and drug dosages should be made. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Noone, Kevin J. Managing ocean environments in a changing climate : sustainability and economic perspectives / Kevin J. Noone, Robert J. Diaz. pages cm Summary: “This chapter provides background information for the scope, purpose and structure of this book. Here, we introduce the main themes that are explored in the book, and provide information that is common to all of them. We discuss the need for taking a holistic view of threats to the global ocean. We also introduce the background and boundary conditions for the economic analysis of the potential savings that could be accrued by acting now to mitigate these threats. We show how this analysis can be useful for decision support in the area of marine policy”– Provided by publisher. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-0-12-407668-6 (hardback) 1. Marine ecology. 2. Marine pollution. 3. Marine resources conservation. I. Diaz, R. J. (Robert J.) II. Title. QH541.5.S3N66 2013 577.7–dc23 2013019814 British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library For information on all Elsevier publications visit our web site at store.elsevier.com Printed and bound in China 13 14 15 16 17 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 ISBN: 978-0-12-407668-6 Contents Contributors ix Preface xi 1. Valuing the Ocean: An Introduction KEVIN J. NOONE, USSIF RASHID SUMAILA AND ROBERT J. DIAZ Purpose and Scope of the Book 2 Differential Analysis for Future Scenarios 3 Expert Survey Approach 9 The Matrix: Values, Threats, and Knowledge 9 Knowledge for Decision Support 12 2. Ocean Acidification CAROL TURLEY Cause and Chemistry 15 Time and Space Scales 17 Future Ocean Acidification Scenarios 21 Potential Future Effects on Physiological Processes and Behavior 25 Impacts on Communities, Food Webs, and Ecosystems 32 Conclusions 35 3. Ocean Warming KEVIN J. NOONE AND ROBERT J. DIAZ Introduction 45 Physical Consequences of Ocean Warming 46 Biological Consequences of Ocean Warming 57 Summary and Take-Home Messages 62 4. Hypoxia ROBERT J. DIAZ, HANNA ERIKSSON-HA¨ GG AND RUTGER ROSENBERG Key Messages 67 Introduction 68 The Heart of the Problem 71 Global Patterns in Hypoxia 73 v vi CONTENTS OMZs and Open Ocean Decline in Oxygen 78 Environmental Consequences of Hypoxia 81 Economic Consequences of Hypoxia 85 Global Change and Hypoxia 87 Restoration and the Future of Hypoxia 90 5. Sea-Level Rise KEVIN J. NOONE Introduction 97 Causes of Sea-Level Rise 97 Observations of Sea-Level Rise 109 Sea Level Rise in the Future 111 Impacts of Sea-Level Rise 115 6. Marine Pollution DAN WILHELMSSON, RICHARD C. THOMPSON, KATRIN HOLMSTRO¨ M, OLOF LINDE´N AND HANNA ERIKSSON-HA¨ GG Introduction 127 Chemical Pollution—POPs and Metals/Toxic Chemicals 129 Oil Pollution 135 Solid Substances 143 Radioactive Waste 150 Noise 152 Present and Forecasted Impacts of Pollution on Global Marine Ecosystems 157 7. The Potential Economic Costs of the Overuse of Marine Fish Stocks USSIF RASHID SUMAILA, WILLIAM W.L. CHEUNG AND A.D. ROGERS Fish and Fisheries Are Important to People 171 Evidence of Overuse of Fish Stocks 173 Climate Change Will Exacerbate the Problem of Overuse of Fish Stocks 179 Global Economic Loss due to Overfishing 181 Estimated Economic Losses 184 Conclusion 186 8. Impacts of Multiple Stressors JULIE HALL, ROBERT J. DIAZ, NICOLAS GRUBER AND DAN WILHELMSSON Introduction 193 Global-Scale Stressors 195 Local- and Regional-Scale Stressors 200 Feedbacks and Synergistic Effects 203 Concluding Remarks 215 CONTENTS vii 9. Tipping Points, Uncertainty, and Precaution: Preparing for Surprise KEVIN J. NOONE AND FRANK ACKERMAN Introduction 223 Why Buy Insurance? 226 Making Decisions in the Dark 228 Peering into the Future 231 Shell Game 231 Pentagon Planning 233 Safe Standards and Planetary Boundaries 235 10. Valuing the Ocean Environment FRANK ACKERMAN Introduction 243 What Is Not Included 244 Classic Studies of the Value of Ocean Environments 247 Fisheries and Climate Change 252 Tourism and Climate Change 254 Costs of SLR 257 Stormy Weather 259 Shrinking the Ocean Carbon Sink 262 Valuing the Damages 265 Scenario Definitions 266 Fisheries 267 Sea-Level Rise 267 Storms 268 Tourism 268 Ocean Carbon Sink 269 11. Managing Multiple Human Stressors in the Ocean: A Case Study in the Pacific Ocean WILLIAM W.L. CHEUNG AND USSIF RASHID SUMAILA Introduction 277 Pattern of Biodiversity and Marine Living Resources 278 Key Human Pressures in the Pacific Ocean 282 Challenges to Sustainable Management of Fisheries Resources in the Pacific Ocean 283 Climate Change 287 Sustainable Management of the Pacific Ocean 294 viii CONTENTS 12. Paths to Sustainable Ocean Resources KATERYNA M. WOWK Introduction 301 Implications of Major Threats and Policy Recommendations 303 Multiple Stressors: Putting the Pieces Together 323 Implications of Valuing Ocean Damages and Planning for Surprise 329 Pacific Region Case Study—Implications for Regional Ocean Governance 334 The Next Era of Global Ocean Governance: Paths to Sustainability 336 Concluding Recommendations 340 Index 349 Contributors Frank Ackerman Synapse Energy Economics, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA William W.L. Cheung Changing Ocean Research Unit, Fisheries Centre, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada Robert J. Diaz Department of Biological Sciences, Virginia Institute of Marine Science, College of William and Mary, Gloucester Point, Virginia, USA Nicolas Gruber Environmental Physics, Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics, Department of Environmental Sciences, Zurich, Switzerland Julie Hall NIWA, Kilbirnie, Wellington, New Zealand Hanna Eriksson-Ha¨gg Baltic Nest Institute, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Kra¨ftriket 2B, Stockholm, Sweden Katrin Holmstro¨m Environment Department, Stockholm City, Box 8136, Sweden Olof Linde´n World Maritime University, Box 500, Malmo¨, Sweden Kevin J. Noone Department of Applied Environmental Science, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden A.D. Rogers Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom Rutger Rosenberg Kristineberg Marine Research Station, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden Ussif Rashid Sumaila Fisheries Economics Research Unit, Fisheries Centre, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada Richard C. Thompson Marine Biology and Ecology Research Centre, School of Marine Science and Engineering, University of Plymouth Drake Circus, Plymouth, United Kingdom Carol Turley Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, The Hoe, Plymouth PL1 3 DH, United Kingdom Dan Wilhelmsson Swedish Secretariat for Environmental Earth System Science, Stockholm, Sweden Kateryna M. Wowk U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Washington, District of Columbia, USA ix Intentionally left as blank Preface As many of the most interesting projects do, this one started in an unexpected way. A colleague from the Balaton Group mentioned that there was a German foundation that was looking for (and not finding) a “TEEB report for the oceans.” This led to a conversa- tion with Dieter Paulmann, founder of the Okeanos Foundation for the Sea. This conversation in turn led to a proposal to the founda- tion to do a “state-of-the-science” review of several threats to the global ocean, a review and analysis of how these threats may inter- act with each other, an analysis of the economic consequences and impacts of these threats, a case study for the Pacific Ocean region, and recommendations for management strategies for marine resources that cross both scales and disciplines. We wanted to do all this in a single report—not a simple task. This required putting together an international, multidisciplin- ary team. Here we again ran into unexpected and very positive out- comes. For example, many of us (including the three lead editors) had not worked together before this project—which has turned out to be an enriching experience for all of us. We were delighted that so many leading marine scientists agreed to be part of the writing team, and the process of producing the book has been a truly edu- cational and memorable experience for all involved. Originally we anticipated a rather modest effort and a short report as the primary output from the project. After the first meet- ing of the lead authors, however, we decided that the subject deserved a more comprehensive effort; we hope that this book does justice to the dignity of the topic. We would like to acknowledge some players crucial to making this book a reality, but who do not appear on the list of authors.